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Cyclical Nature of BitcoinToday, we'll take an in-depth look at Bitcoin and examine where we could be headed over the next few months. The chart before you is crystal clear: we are in the midst of a repeating cycle. Regardless of how bad the news may be, or how much global conflict or financial turmoil escalates, all that matters is the chart. The chart speaks volumes: Bitcoin came back to the green zone in this model in precisely the same time as the last cycle: 364 days. Refer to this TA for more information on that: So we hit the green zone, we've bounced out of it, hovering just above it, as we did in 2019. With last week's weekly close, we've broken the 0.25 Fibonacci fan, just as we did in 2019. So, unless we do something that changes the mirror fractal, we will continue to stick to the view that this relief rally is just getting started. In 2019, it took us 56 days from the time we broke the 0.25 Fibonacci Fan to reach the relief rally top. If the same pattern holds, the week of April 10th, 2023, would signal the top, and we could go as high as $48k. Anywhere between $35-48k would be the topping zone. Somewhere within this yellow circle, around this time, would be the perfect topping signal for Bitcoin. However, things never go as planned, so we could top out as early as $35k. Why $35k? Well, the highest CME gap currently sits at $35k, with the 0.382 Fibonacci Fib. This is an area that I'll be paying close attention to because it's very possible that Bitcoin will close the gap and top out for the year at this level. If we zoom into the daily in 2019, we can see that we created an ascending channel coming out of capitulation. We have done precisely the same thing this cycle so far, but we will go one step further here. This chart shows the Pearson correlation coefficient, demonstrating decoupling from the SPX500 vs. Bitcoin. When we dig in, we see that, in fact, Bitcoin decouples from the stock around precisely the same time during this ascending channel in 2019. The negative correlation lasts for a significant chunk of the relief rally, as you can see. Very interesting. Here we can see that during that period, the Dow Jones dropped 7.59%, while Bitcoin rallied 78%. It's essential to note that even though Bitcoin has become increasingly more correlated over the years as it matures, there are still pockets of the cycle where there is negative correlation. Bitcoin has been performing consistently within the same bands as it did in 2019, a fact that remains true since the publication of the TA above from eight months ago. This post, published during the bear market, was met with skepticism and laughter from traders who claimed that the "MACRO ENVIRONMENT" would prevent the predicted outcome. However, the theory, vision, and analysis presented in the post remains valid and unchanged to this day. By removing the noise and emotions surrounding human behavior, we can stick to the chart and better predict market trends. Mayer Multiple Bands Bitcoin still playing within the same bands as 2019 perfectly . Of course, there's always a possibility that I am wrong. What if we're not going to have a relief rally, and this is the top? The invalidation level is always present, and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed. Looking at the fractal pattern that emerged during the 2015 bear market, we can see that history could repeat itself. While anything is possible, including a black swan event that could bring the market down in a week, I think the odds of this fractal pattern playing out are low, at around 10%. In every cycle, Bitcoin puts in a "marco double bottom." Even in 2011, Bitcoin put in a double bottom. Having cash on hand for when those two bottoms hit is essential. I believe we have only had one bottom, and while some analyses bet on the FTX black swan being the second bottom, I disagree. After the COVID crash in March 2020, I spent countless hours trying to predict when the next Bitcoin crash would occur. I was off by two weeks when I published my analysis in January 2022, but we did get the first cycle bottom around the end of May 2022. The only constant pattern we have is that Bitcoin puts in the second double bottom before the next halving, which is scheduled for April 2024. The average length from the second double bottom to halving is 256 days, and according to my analysis, sometime between July 24th, 2022, and April 2024, we're likely to get Bitcoin's double bottom, which would bring the price down to at least test the first bottom lows at $15k. My Bitcoin model predicted the pico bottom of the COVID crash in 2020, and if it follows the same pattern, the latest low band of the model will be retesting $15k is April 2024, which is the same month as the halving. Keep in mind that these are projected lines for this model, and if anyone is a coder who can add projected dash lines to the model, please DM me on TradingView. Another possible outcome for the double bottom of Bitcoin could be a crash as early as July 2023. As long as Bitcoin stays within this ascending channel, we have the potential to push much higher. However, if we break out of the channel and close below it on a daily timeframe, the chances of the 2015 fractal playing out become much higher.
BNC:BLX
by Sporia
8
Will Bitcoin continue to fall?BTC: Judging from the daily chart, the market was super negative yesterday, which seems to mean that its direction is chosen. Even if there is a rebound trend after the plunge, both in terms of the strength of the rebound and the time of the rebound, the bulls are basically defenseless at present, and as the rebound trend gradually consumes the rebound momentum, the height of the rebound will also decrease. On the 4-hour chart, the market has returned to the structure of the third wave again, and the decline has been strengthened and confirmed. Now that the third wave is not in place, the probability of continuing to fall is relatively high. And on the fundamentals, the risks still tend to be downside due to the ongoing concerns about the ongoing cryptocurrency crackdown by US regulators. Therefore, in terms of operating ideas, it is mainly based on rebound shorting, and the height of the rebound can be appropriately reduced, so don't easily try to make a profit from the rebound. BTC: 20800-20900 short, target 20100-20000 In order to make it easier for everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel, if you can't follow up in real time, you may make mistakes in operation. You can enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow the market trend in real time through the following methods.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Blessed_V
3
Bitcoin Buy Idea"Finally" (a bit painful lol) bitcoin is in a situation that might be a good opportunity to get in and buy at a good price. As always that's a 50/50 (no crystal ball) but if we are believing to the pump to $30k scenario, then (<$20k) is the technically correct price to buy in low. There's a bit of earthquake right now in the market (fundamentally), with silvergate crashing and also various banks having liquidity issues and new taxes on bitcoin mining being discussed and other scary situations coming every day, but from a technical analysis point of view this current point is a good risk-reward ratio for a buy (i guess?), we will find out soon for sure! No financial advice
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MCFractalStudies
2
Bitcoin: Opportunity knocks for Smart Investors.Hello traders. I hope we didn't lose any money in trading Cryptos this week. BTC is currently at a price where it was supposed to be which, if you're familiar with the my past price prediction of Bitcoin published in my very first article, was predicted at $19k - $20k. Now, as I've mentioned in that article, I will wait for some sort of confirmation to be validated before executing my long position. Unless the charts don't show me what I want to see, I'll not enter any kind of trades.
by YuaishQureshi
1
Bitcoin short-term update 🐻🐂👀Bitcoin short-term update (a) BTC just reached my bearish target of ~$21,913👀 (b) next bearish target at $21,595 🐻 (c) next bullish target still FIB golden pocket at $22,750🐂 How was your day dear Crypto Nation?😎 Comments💭Likes & Follow🔗appreciated🤗 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Crypto4Everybody
1
ETH:The analysis of ETH's future market situation is as followsETH as a whole is still in a wide range of oscillations at the daily level. Technically, ETH failed to break through the 1590 position, and a new bearish reaction appeared after forming a high near 1583.It fell sharply below the levels of 1550 and 1540.The low formed near 1535.The daily chart is suppressed by the moving average of technical indicators, and the opening of the Bollinger band is downward, the overall market of Ethereum is still running short. At the small level, the current small-level rebound market is under pressure near 1565. This position happens to be the intersection of the short-term moving average of the 20th and 30th moving average, which plays a role in the market. The market is under pressure, and with the current technology showing kinetic energy, it is difficult to support the rise of Ethereum and make a breakthrough, so the top is currently facing two suppression levels, one is near 1565, and the other is the high point 1590 that has not been effectively broken through recently. Therefore, from this point of view, Ethereum is still in a weak and volatile market. If it is delayed and cannot effectively break through the above two resistance levels, it will be difficult to support the rise of Ethereum and make a breakthrough. Therefore, the top is currently facing two suppression levels, one is near 1565, and the other is the high point 1590 that has not been effectively broken through recently. Therefore, From this point of view, Ethereum is still in a weak and volatile market. If it is delayed and cannot effectively break through the above two resistance levels, when If the kinetic energy is exhausted, a new round of falling markets may begin. So in terms of operation, Ethereum can enter with empty orders near 1583-1590, below the target level of 1540. In order to facilitate you to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me. In addition, you can enter my channel for free in the following ways to follow real-time views and operational strategies. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Blessed_V
Successfully won the rebound of Bitcoin,how's the future market?The operating idea given by Bitcoin yesterday was to go long near 21800, very accurately grasping the vicinity of the lowest point in the short-term, and got a relatively good rebound profit. On the fundamental level, after Powell's speech, the sharp rise in the US dollar will pose challenges to global non-US currencies and risky assets, suppressing their prices. On the technical side, after Bitcoin fell yesterday, it broke the extension line of the low point of the daily K-line, breaking the short-term strong trend and returning to the weak range. The short-term pattern is bearish, and the high point of the recent rebound of the daily line forms new resistance. Together with the short-term moving average, it suppresses the rising Bitcoin market, while the technical indicator MACD diverges downward, and the downward momentum is strong, and the overall still shows that the Bitcoin market is running short. So in terms of operation, Bitcoin can be shorted at the position of 22600, near the target position of 21900. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT INDEX:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Blessed_V
After the Bitcoin market fluctuates, how to choose the directionBitcoin, judging from the daily level, the current price as a whole remains within the range, but there are obvious signs of decline in the price operation, and it tries to break below 22,000 US dollars, forming a long shadow line.In terms of technical indicators, the opening of the Bollinger band is downward, while the short-term moving average is suppressed downward, and the MACD is downward, and the short-term bears have the advantage; however, Bitcoin can recover to above 22,000 after breaking below 22,000, indicating that the current market sentiment is not overly bearish. In the fluctuation of the K-line, beware of the possibility of retracement of the K-line to induce short-selling.In addition, there will be greater news stimulus on Wednesday, and we need to pay attention to it. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the currency price is still in a state of shock and sideways trading, and the sudden short-term decline may be to wash out unwavering retail investors, but also for the arrival of a big news market brewing tomorrow, the box support below and the support of the 22,000 integer mark are still valid, so you can still consider going long at a low level in terms of operation. Operation idea: Consider going long in the low position near COINBASE:ETHUSD 21800, and the first target position is 22600. In order to facilitate you to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me. In addition, you can enter my channel for free in the following ways to follow real-time views and operational strategies. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Blessed_V