BTCUSD And Not Buying Silly PricesHey Traders,
Upon this Morns Crypto News/Sentiment surrounding Binance... You have the option to make a decision. Eyes will race to that of the 'New' asset hot in popularity which is Bitcoin.
If you have to trade it, you always want to buy dips to attain value. There is no value really in buying high prices because naturally, you are getting a worse deal if long.
And yes, there COULD be a larger upside in the future. But show me how you can prove at this exact point in time, factually, that this will occur. That is a Discussion and not a fact. This is why you should buy dips, they are facts. Dips are low prices within moves up and therefore naturally retain more value than prices that have already had their wider move.
Now, if you are short, you need to minimise risk enormously because this asset is a HVA. Any shocking news that arrives (may see it with what's going on) can you blow you to smithereens. This is dangerous and often will happen if you are buying highs far away from key moving averages (that you always arrive back to). Often the further away from the 20/40 and further 100/200/500 the lower the market value in the opposite direction.
It's far better to just consistently ONLY buy things when they are cheaper and ONLY exit when they cost more. That is the natural art of dealing anything for long term gains.
Without acting in such way you are simply avoiding reality. If you are after the 'thrill' seeking aspect of Trading.. you WILL lose money. The market is not for thrill seekers it is for those who are in control of both MIND and also RISK. That is because what rules Trading is decisions made in the brain and the longevity of your equity management and damage control when you do make worse decisions. This mitigates the bad times and gets you back on the good.
If you do not manage both accordingly you will suffer, so make sure ya do. Remember Bitcoin only took off a few years ago we are not looking at something which has 30 40 50 years of price action and therefore inherently has greater risk. There CAN be upside. There really can. However, we are where we are and if you do not use factual price then you are guessing.
Trade small and trade safe always. Also, think about how you want your portfolio arranged.
Cryptos
KASUSD Little more room left on this rally.KASUSD/ Kaspa is rallying on a Rising Support. The 1day MA50 is also supporting for the past 2 months.
The RSI is also on a Rising Support, indicating no divergence form the prevailing bullish trend.
Target 0.0300, which as on the October/ November rise, it represents a +650% rise on the 2.382 Fibonacci.
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BTCUSD: Will pull back if it closes under the 4H MA50.BTCUSD is inside a monthly Triangle pattern with 4H technicals turning neutral (RSI = 48.016, MACD = 238.400, ADX = 31.451) after failing to break above it and making a Double Top (DT). Both previous Highs have been on DT formations, therefore it is highly likely this is one as well. It will be confirmed if today closes under the 4H MA50.
The 4H MACD has a clear Buy Zone under 0. Excluding the Silicon Valley Bank aggressive decline, both previous pull backs have been of the same magnitude (around -12%). Depending on how aggressive the 4H MA50 break might be, we may see this correction extend to the 1D MA50 but we doubt under the current fundamentals it can go any lower. Next TP = 30,000.
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ETH (CONVERGENCE) + DOWN TRENDhi there ,
convergence simply its mean that the trend its not finished yet not matter its down of up trend but in this case we have a down trend with convergence supportation,
price convergence its support the continuation of downtrend , i,m afraid this up wave its a bull trap and later price will continue down ,
thanks
BTCUSD Flipped fractal targeting 35000BTCUSD is rising after a clear support test on the Falling Resistance of the Bear Cycle.
On March 2022 we had an equally strong rejection on that Resistance.
We flipped the fractal and matches so far the price action since the December lows.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 35000 (the fractal's peak).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is already overbought but nowhere near the January levels. Such impulsive waves ignore the standard overbought/ oversold levels on traditional assets.
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MAGICUSD Immense upside potential. It can reach $5.000MAGICUSD just formed a 4hour Golden Cross. Last time it formed the same pattern was on January 15th. It was the start of a +417% rally.
The 4hour RSI is also forming the exact same pattern as January's on the exact same levels.
The whole pattern since the beginning, so far fits into a long term Channel Up.
Expect a new +417% rise. Target 5.000
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XRPUSD This rally isn't stopping hereGreat news for XRPUSD which immediately showed on the price action and today it just broke over the middle of the long term Channel Up.
The 1day RSI is already overbought but as with September 20th - 23rd, this move won't stop here and targets the top of the Channel Up.
This time the 1day MA200 is supporting. Target 0.6300.
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You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC.
It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class!
Case in an upwards trend
When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do?
Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts...
In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them?
What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC:
Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021)
The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio)
Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally)
In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot!
When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go?
As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH.
But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC?
No one asked, but I will answer still:
The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH:
Equation for normalization:
minValue = 0
maxValue = 1
(TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0)
Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC!
Case in a downwards trend
The method is the same, but reversed!
When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming!
ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama:
This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC
Quite simple, but very effective!
In conclusion
I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal?
If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system
Numbers don't lie, this method works!
The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk!
Kind regards
Omar
I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
$QOMUSD Shiba Predator QOM is the Shiba Predator, it is a community token whose function is to flip the Shiba Market cap.
QOM Price Live Data
The live Shiba Predator price today is $7.84e-8 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,010,516 USD. We update our QOM to USD price in real-time. Shiba Predator is up 5.39% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #423, with a live market cap of $47,015,780 USD. It has a circulating supply of 599,886,333,333,333 QOM coins and a max. supply of 1,000,000,000,000,000 QOM coins.
Alt Market on the VergeThe alt coin market is on the verge of a potentially volatile move, with several interesting factors at play. The recent candle close above the 0.5 Fib fan, which has acted as resistance, now appears to be holding as support, signaling that something significant may be stirring
However, the most critical chart to watch right now is the Bitcoin market cap dominance. In the past, whenever the RSI poked outside the 70 zone, it signaled a bottom for the alt coin market. Last week's close put us just past that 70 zone, and it took 91 days for the dominance to come back down to the range. During that time, the alt coin market moved $285 billion and $255 billion dollars. Therefore, a move of $250-300 billion from where we are now could put the market cap at around the 0.382 Fib and under the 0.75 Fib fan.
This is one of many reasons why I believe the top for the market will be in late June 2023. I use Fib time sequences frequently with great success, as we caught the big move down in the market months before it happened last year. We plan to do the same this year.
So, when will this move happen? For me, it's straightforward. Once we break the support on the USDT dominance, we will see the next and possibly final leg of this relief rally. The entire year, we have failed to break this level, which shows very strong support. However, I am confident that a break of this level will signal the start of the next significant wave up for the market.
There is alot of money to be made in the next 90days its going to be a easy x2-5 on most alt coins the move is going to be volatile , greed will come into the market heavily but come late June 2023 it will be over so there is very limited time to take advantage before the next big crash.
BTCUSD Top of the Channel Up. Buying the pull back.Bitcoin/ BTCUSD has reached the top of a 2 month Channel Up.
Standard support during this uptrend is the 1day MA50. That is currently on Support Zone A.
If you are looking for a lower risk buy, use that potential pull back and Target 30000.
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NEXOUSD Buy but limitedNEXOUSD hit both the MA50 (1d) and MA200 (1d) today.
The long term pattern is a Triangle that is limited by a Falling Resistance.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 0.8500 (Falling Resistance and +53.50% move).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is still only 60.00, indicating that until its usual deeply overbought tops, there is still room on this uptrend but only short term due to the Falling Resistance.
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BTCUSD: Is entering another short term consolidation.The 4H time frame technically remains green for Bitcoin (RSI = 65.151, MACD = 993.700, ADX = 40.425) but the 4H RSI is under a LH trend line since January 14th. With the pattern printing an identical construct, it is possible to see a new consolidation on the current heights. The best buy entry should again be upon contact with the 4H MA200.
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