INJUSD Has bottomed and is targeting 33.000Injective is on very stable technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.927, MACD = 0.959, ADX = 21.734) as it resumed the rise, keeping clear of the 1D MA50, which remains the Support since since September 29th.
The 1D RSI shows that the market is replicating the early 2023 price action on a fractal which after reclaiming the 1D MA50, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. We therefore turn bullish again, aiming at the 1.5 Fib (TP = 33.000).
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Cryptos
BTCUSD: Right where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin is on the very healthy bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.823, MACD = 1089.300, ADX = 23.103) extending a controlled uptrend. The 1W timeframe remains overbought though (RSI = 74.426) as there has been no hard correction since mid August. Perhaps the relief in late weeks is an attempt of 1D to neutralize the overbought state on 1W without a strong correction.
Regardless of this, Bitcoin is right where it's supposed to be when compared to the previous Cycles. On this chart you see the harmonic structure of every bottom that leads to cyclinder pattern that ultimate paves the wave for the end of Cycle rally.
There has always been one extreme event' crash on every Cycle, after which the market bottomed and never looked back. It was COVID and Bitfinex before, this time we had FTX and now the market shouldn't break the 1W MA50 again before the next Bear Cycle starts. All that's left now to do is see how close the price will be to the 1W MA50 in the next Halving (April 2024) as from that point onwards the parabolic rally can start any moment.
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ETHUSD: Golden Cross consolidation, before the rally to $2440.Ethereum is marginally bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.849, MACD = 64.500, ADX = 17.549) despite the despite the 19 day consolidation, suggesting strong underlying bullish bias. This shouldn't come as a surprise as the long term pattern has been a Channel Up in the last 12 months and on top of that, a Golden Cross was formed last week on the 1D timeframe.
The last time we had such a bullish formation was during the previous mid HH bullish leg consolidation on February 8th. After almost 2 months of ranged Rectangular trading, the price resumed the bullish trend and topped a little over Fibonacci 1.5. Being right now exactly on the middle of the Channel Up, we spread the risk by taking a buy position now, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 2,440) near the top of the pattern.
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Ethereum Is Eyeing April Highs After A PullbackHello Crypto traders! In today’s article we want to update Ethereum chart with ticker ETHUSD. We already talked about a nice bullish turn from the support in the past updates, where we have been tracking a new five-wave bullish cycle.
As you can see today, ETH made nice and clean five-wave recovery, which indicates for more upside, at least towards the April highs and 2200 – 2300 area or maybe even higher. However, currently we can see it making a new corrective setback, so after a triangle corrective pattern or deeper A-B-C correction that can retest 1900 support, be aware of more gains. If ETH slips below 1870 level, then correction can go deeper and more complex with the next support around 1800 – 1750 area.
One of the main reasons why ETH can stay in uptrend is also because of the bullish ALTcoins in current ALTseason.
XRP ForecastKeep an eye out for XRP in its current area, if we see it test the the support line and not break it, then I would be in for a long term buy position. If it decides to start its bull run from its current position then I would also go in for a long term buy. Either way the future is looking bright for ripple and all of crypto with all this economic uncertainty.
KASUSD: The rally isn't over. Price can double.Kaspa is having one of the most aggressive rallies in the high capitalization category, positng the strongest weekly gains on the fifth straight green week. The 1D timeframe is obviously overbought (RSI = 86.789, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 53.378) but this rally can extend more based on the previous bullish sequence inside the annual Channel Up.
More specifically, the previous HH was made approximately on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension. In the meantime the 1W RSI peaked on a HH trendline. We have a similar pattern that is being followed currently so we expect KAS to reach again the 2.5 Fibonacci level and that's our target (TP = 0.28000) soon in order to form the new HH.
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The Last Time This Happened BTC Move From $9.5k to $63k.Bitcoin's weekly close above the Ichimoku Cloud is very significant. I wrote about this same event back in January 2020:
This is likely the beginning of the next expansion and bull phase.
If this scenario plays out, then a return to the ATH sometime around the last half of June 2024 and the first have of July 2024 is likely, with a new Top/ATH established somewhere between Nov 2024 and Feb 2025.
CHZ/USDT Secondary trendLogarithm. Time frame 3 days. Secondary trend. Downward channel.
After the rebound, the price is squeezed in a narrow 124-144 zone. The chart shows the percentages to the key support/resistance levels from this price squeeze zone.
Risk Management.
It is worth noting that the price of the coin is at a super profit, I have clearly shown this on the chart, which shows the entire main, long-term trend (the entire trading history). Consequently, when working on a coin, you need to keep this in mind and limit potential losses. Observe the risk management.
A local trend. The time frame is 1 day.
CHZ/USD Local trade. Pivot zone.
Main trend Time frame 1 week.
ETH Trade setup for 14th Nov 2023Eth has been bullish compared to BTC, so for me to trade this pair because it refused to make lower low but it also still took out some lows as an inducement to go short however, that's not the actually direction. It's direction is bullish to offset short traders. My possible scenario is for the market to trade into my zone at about 9:30am NY time today, then I can see what price is doing. If there be reasons to go long or short.
Ethereum Is Pointing Higher For Wave 5 or 3Ethereum is coming nicely higher as expected based on Elliott wave theory and it's now even extending the rally on the news that Blackrock Ethereum ETF plan is confirmed in the Nasdaq filing. On a daily chart, there's a chance it's trading in wave (5) of a potential leading diagonal formation or alternatively maybe even in wave (3) if we see a decisive break above upper leading diagonal line. However, in both cases there's still room at least up to 2200 - 2300 area to complete a five-wave bullish cycle in the 4-hour chart, so more gains can be seen, just be aware of short-term pullbacks.
AVAX/US DOLLAR These are levels that I'll be keeping an eye on when dealing with BINANCE:AVAXUSD , and I'll revise as price action progresses.
I adapt to the change in money flow.
Fundamentals:
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has partnered with Ava Labs in a bid to accelerate the adoption of blockchain technology by enterprises, institutions, and governments.
The move has sent the linked Avalanche AVAXUSD token soaring higher in recent days, outperforming even Bitcoin amid a major bull run in the biggest cryptocurrency. *OLD ARTICLE*
.....
Monthly:
1. P.A. broke a key low
2. Demand (untouched) below broken key low
3. Key S/R being revisited for 1st time
4. Key S/R rest within untouched demand
ETHUSD Is Trying To Breakout ETHUSD is coming higher after three waves down from 2023 highs, which can be wave 4 within a higher degree leading diagonal. Notice that price is trying to break out of a downward channel as well, so it seems that bulls can be in play and ready to gain much further, especially now when risk-on is back after FED and NFP data last week showed that rates are about to top.
Join me in web here on tradingview today at 15cet.
Grega
WEMIXUSD Major bullish breakout and it's not finished yetWemix / WEMIXUSD is having the strongest 1week candle since September 18th when it crossed over the 1week MA50 and turned it to Support (closed all candles over it).
It has already hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Bear Cycle while crossing over the Falling Resistance, the final Resistance.
This puts the crypto into the new Bull Cycle without any doubts and the two Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle can now be targeted.
Buy now and target 2.800 (Resistance A) and after a 0.5 Fibonacci pull back, buy again and target 4.7500 (Resistance B).
It has to be noted that the market remains massively undervalued under 0.00, showing its immense upside potential.
Previous chart:
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CryptoTime- i just took 4 differents Altcoins in this chart as exemples.
- they are mostly all doing the same.
- Breaking up a long winter market.
- if you repeat this simple chart with your Favorite Token or Coin.
- You will propably see the same.
- if you don't load your bags now.
- Later will surely be too late.
- Choose wisely.
- Don't forget cryptos are faster than you.
- Don't go all in and DCA is always the safer method.
Fortune favors the bold!
Happy Tr4Ding !
MANAUSD above the 1D MA200 after 6 months. Bullish confirmed.Decentraland crossed today over the 1D MA200 and if it closes the day there, it will be the first time since April 22nd 2023 to do so. It may remain inside the 10 month Channel Down but crossing over the 1D MA200 where it had the last major rejection (June 5th) is strong enough to cause a breakout. Especially since this rally originated on a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence.
The overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.919, MACD = 0.023, ADX = 49.040) may cause a minor rejection near the R1 level but we expect to hit R2 (TP = 0.53450) before the end of the year. The only condition is for the 1D MA50 to hold.
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💡 BTCUSD: Sideway after a strong spikeThe 7-day streak of price increases came to a halt following a decrease yesterday. However, it's worth noting that yesterday's downward movement, represented by the D1 bar, exhibited a narrow range and a minimal lower shadow, indicating that the selling pressure lacked significant strength.
Moreover, there are ongoing signs of excess, particularly in the form of overbuying. This marks the third consecutive day in which BTCUSD has remained in an overbought state. When an asset is overbought, it tends to be more prone to a downward correction rather than a continued upward trend.
Although the BTCUSDT chart structure supports an overall uptrend on this timeframe, it would be prudent to await a corrective downward move before considering a buying opportunity.
Cryptos: Great Hedge Against the Stock Market DeclineCME: Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ), Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
On March 29th, I published this trade idea: “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1.” At the time, bitcoin was quoted $28,348, up $11,800 or +71.3% year-to-date. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets.
On July 17th, I published a follow-up idea, “Crypto Bull Market Appears to Take Hold.” Bitcoin was closed at $30,146, up 1,798 or +6.3% since the first report.
While the 80%+ gain in the First Half had been remarkable, bitcoin was still 56.2% off its record high of $68,789. As price remerged above the critical $30K mark, investor confidence returned. I suggested that bitcoin would continue to rise.
Last Saturday, spot bitcoin price was settled at $34,090. The leading cryptocurrency is up $17,542, or +106.0% YTD in 2023. Current price is 20.3% higher since I wrote the first idea, and up 13.1% further since I published the 2nd report.
Ethereum, the other leading crypto currency, closed at 1,801 on Sunday, up 50.5% YTD.
Key Drivers for Crypto’s Recent Rises
In my opinion, the rising bitcoin prices could be attributed to the following:
Firstly, strong law enforcement helps investor regain trust in cryptocurrencies.
For a long time, bad actors found ways to steal investor’s money, even though the sector was built on blockchain technologies designed to safeguard crypto assets. This year, the SEC fined Binance, the largest crypto Exchange. Public trial of the founder of FTX, the defunct second largest Exchange, sent strong signals of investor protection.
Secondly, crypto market benefits from investors rotating assets out of stocks.
In the First Half, the S&P 500 was up 15% while the Nasdaq rose 38%. However, the boom in market indexes was a mirage, rather than a real broad-based bull market.
The S&P did not behave like a well-diversified stock market index. The “Magnificent Seven”, which include Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, represent 30% of the entire index and were up 60%, driven largely by the AI hype. At the same time, the remaining 493 companies were up only 3%. Altogether, the S&P 500 was up 15.8% as of June 15th. Similar phenomenon occurred at the Nasdaq index.
In previously writings, I reasoned with my readers that the US stock indexes could no longer carry the heavy weight of hundreds of mediocre stocks. Rising interest rates eventually caught up with them. An average company saw its market value decline as prescribed by the Discounted Cash Flow stock valuation method.
Since the Federal Reserve turned hawkish in recent weeks, investors became more pessimistic and began taking out stock market profits. On October 27th, the S&P closed at 4,117, a 10.3% drawdown from its yearly high of 4,589. The Nasdaq, at 12,643, was down 11.9% from 14,358. Both indexes are officially in the bear market territory.
Meanwhile, bitcoin was up 16.6% in the last three months. Trade volume data suggests that investors are putting money into cryptos.
• Coinbase market data shows that its bitcoin trading volume in October averaged $15.2 billion, up 35% from September and up 21% from Q3 average.
• The S&P 500 traded 3.8 billion shares per day in October, up only 2.8% from September and up just 1.1% from Q3 average.
Thirdly, the Israeli-Hamas conflict triggers a flight to safety. Investors moved money out of risky assets and into relatively safe assets, including gold, US dollar, and cryptos.
• Since October 6th, COMEX gold futures were up 10.2%. At $2,016 per troy ounce, this is the first market close above $2K in over five months.
• Dollar Index was last closed at 106.58, up 0.5% for the same period and up 3.0% YTD.
• Bitcoin was up 24.2% while Ether rose 9.4% since the Gaza War broke out.
Finally, growing expectations that the SEC will authorize exchange-traded funds investing directly in bitcoin pushed it up by more than 25% over the past two weeks. If materialized, this momentum could form the biggest price breakout in years for cryptos.
Trading with Micro BTC and ETH Futures
In my opinion, the above price drivers will run their courses in coming months, giving solid support for the crypto market. However, having a bullish view is easy, putting money on something already doubling in price is quite hard. In crypto investment, choosing the right instrument will make a big difference.
Neither the physical bitcoin nor the bitcoin ETFs offer any leverage. When price goes up, it will take a larger dollar increase to get the same investment return. For example, when bitcoin was trading at $20,000, a price hike of $10,000 represents a 50% return. When bitcoin rose to $40K, a 50% return will require $20K in price increase.
CME Micro BTC futures ( LSE:MBT ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $750. November contract was last settled on $3,409.5. At current price there is a 4.5 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 3,409.5 divided by 750. If futures price goes up 10% to 3,750.45, the price gain of 340.95 would be a 45.5% return, using the $750 initial margin as a cost base.
In my view, Ether has more room to grow comparing to Bitcoin. In the past five years, Ether price closely tracked that of Bitcoin. In 2023, Ether lagged Bitcoin performance. Its 50% YTD gain, while extraordinary, is just half the return Bitcoin managed to gain.
The ETF fund expectation has a direct impact on bitcoin, but also helps pull the entire crypto market up as it inspires investor enthusiasm. Ether’s lower price, at about 1/19th of a bitcoin, would be more attractive to value investors. At the end, if one crypto ETF is approved, there will be more. ETF funds on Ether could be next.
CME Micro Ether futures ( NYSE:MET ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $49. November contract was last settled on $179. At current price there is a 3.6 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 179 divided by 49. If futures price goes up 10% to 196.9, the price gain of 17.9 would be a 36.5% return, using the $49 initial margin as a cost base.
Warning: Cryptocurrencies and all financial instruments based on the value of cryptos are highly risky investment.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BTCUSD: Overbought on weekly but does it matter?BTCUSD has turned overbought on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 70.463, MACD = 1620.000, ADX = 29.717) as it made a new annual High. This is not the only technical benchmark it achieved as it formed a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD and crossed over the formed support that turned into resistance emphatically.
We see the same repetitive pattern on both prior Cycles. As long as the 1W MA50 is supporting (which it has since March), then a 1W MACD Bullish Cross on this level initiates a parabolic rally. So be careful with trading Bitcoin technically on the current price levels as the overbought weekly technical indicators may not correct any time soon. This chart shows that if anything, Bitcoin is entering a phase of aggressive growth, even though the official timing has historically been post-Halving.
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