Everything going by the plan!Hello Traders,
Based on my previous post DOM reached 5.70% with a little push after the escalated war news in the Middle East. But again BTC was on the path of free fall even before the war.
The chart has developed a small double top that should retest the monthly open the following days.
There is the possibility that DOM might try to create LH at around the 5.85 - 5.95% zone cause we are waiting for Israel to respond to yesterday's attack.
Let's see what the chart will give us next.
Cryptomarketcap
MARKETS week ahead: September 30 – October 6Last week in the news
The market optimism still strongly holds on the markets. During the previous week the support came both from US PCE data, but also news that China is preparing stronger stimulus for its economy. The price of gold reached a new fresh all time highest level, supported by both weakened US Dollar and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Gold is ending the week at the level of $2.657. A slowdown in the US inflation data pushed 10Y US Treasury yields back to the level of 3,75%, but supported further the US equity markets, where the S&P 500 reached new highest levels, ending the week at 5.738. This week, the crypto market was also supported by the US macro prospectus, where BTC finally managed to test higher grounds, ending the week above the $ 65K levels.
The released PCE data for August showed that the inflation in the US continues to slow down, bringing it close to the Feds target of 2%. The data show that the PCE index ended August at the level of 2,2% increase on a yearly basis, which was modestly lower from market forecast of 2,3%. At the same time, posted final GDP Growth data showed no change and that the US economy grew 3% for the second quarter. Further decrease in inflation and its level close to the 2% Feds target, supported market optimism that the Fed might easily further cut interest rates in the coming period. Also, the environment of decreased interest rates will be supportive for the economy, which is expected to further expand.
The Bank of China was in the focus of the markets during the previous week. Namely, as for some time the Government is struggling to boost China's economy, the newest set of measures increased confidence among investors that the China's economy is going to be well supported in the coming period. The Peoples Bank of China announced a set of measures, among which are cuts of reserve requirements for Chinese banks. Attracting stimulus measures increased investors' confidence to move funds into China related exchange traded funds, which gained significantly during the previous week.
News is reporting that the social platform X might soon continue to work in Brazil. As per news, there is only one fine which should be paid by this platform, after which, its ban in this country will be lifted. The fine in the amount of $2M is related to the days of non-compliance with the Brazilian court orders.
MicroStrategy launched a new ETF on a 2X leveraged long position on the performance of the MicroStrategy. Only a week after the launch, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) attracted over $72 million in inflows, making it the most successful ETF within the crypto area.
Crypto market cap
Further inflation drop in the US and its nearing toward Fed's target of 2%, increased the investors sentiment for riskier assets. The crypto market was in the spotlight, where increased demand came from both individual investors and through exchange traded funds. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 5% during the week, where $112B has been added to the value of the market. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of 121B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $620B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year.
The majority of crypto coins gained during the previous week, with only a few which finished the week in red. Bitcoin was leading the crypto market increase in nominal terms, adding almost $60B to its value, increasing it by 4.8% on a weekly basis. Ether followed the sentiment, adding $12B to the market cap, and increasing its value by 3.8%. Among higher gainers was DOGE, with a surge in value of $3.3B or 21.3%. BNB was traded higher by 3.2%, adding $2.8B to its market cap. The market favorite Solana also managed to significantly gain during the week, with an increase in cap of $5.5B or 8.14%. Gainers above $ 1B in value were also LINK, with an increase of 14.8% and ADA with a surge of 10.8% in value. Higher gainers in a relative terms were Uniswap, who was traded higher by 14%, Polkadot surged by 10.2%, while Filecoin increased its value by 11.4% w/w. Interestingly, this week Monero ended in a negative territory of 10.4% drop in value, while ZCash was traded lower by 2%.
This week there has been higher activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense, Filecoin added 0.4% new coins to the market, while Polkadot, Tether and XRP added 0.2% of new coins. At the same time, ADA decreased its circulating coins by -2.8% w/w, while Polygon pulled out 3.9% of coins and Maker`s number of coins dropped by 0.3%.
Crypto futures market
In line with an increased sentiment from the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded higher on a weekly basis. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by around 4.5%, while the longer term ones were traded higher by around 3.5%. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price of $67.200, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $73.475. Futures maturing in March 2026 were introduced to the market, reaching closing price at $75.075. This represents a positive market sentiment over the future value of BTC.
ETH futures were traded above 6% for all maturities. In this sense, December 2024 ended the week at level $2.763 and December 2025 was last traded at $2.971. ETH futures maturing in March 2026 closed the first trading week at level of $3.019.
NOTUSDNOtCoin telegram game As it is clear in the blue points, the currency actor has made purchases and in the red points it has fluctuated, the marked points of liquidity are behind the peaks of the valleys where the currency actor fluctuates, but as money is the god of actors and Our expert team determines the best stocks by monitoring the price behavior. Our expectation is that it will move above 70% according to the blue arrow. We hope you made a profit.
MARKETS week ahead: September 24 – 29Last week in the news
The long awaited Fed's rate cut finally occurred, with a surprising 50 bps. Thai was the main event which shaped the market sentiment during the previous week. Despite the cut, the 10Y US Treasury yields reverted to the upside, ending the week at the level of 3,74%. The US Dollar was losing in value, supporting the price of gold to reach a new all time highest level at $2.621. The US equity markets responded positively to the rate cut, pushing the S&P 500 to the higher grounds, ending the week at 5.702. The crypto market was also among weekly gainers, with BTC testing the levels above the $63K.
The event which was long awaited by markets during the previous period, was the Feds pivotal point. This is an expression used by markets to express the point where central monetary authorities start easing monetary policy. Although the market participants were divided on whether the Fed will cut by 25 bps or 50 bps, the Fed's decision came as a sort of surprise. In an after the meeting statement, Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed sees inflation slowly moving to its 2% target, while the jobs market retains relative stability, while the economy “continued to expand at a solid pace”. In the view of economic projections, the FOMC members currently perceive two more rate cuts, in total of 50 bps, till the end of this year, and 100 points rate cut in 2025 and 50 bps in 2026. The jobs market is perceived to decline to the level of 4,4% till the end of this year, from the current 4,2%. The market reacted positively to the Fed move, where equity markets gained further in value.
Although the economy seems to do well in the US, the housing market is still strongly under pressure. Published data for August, show a further significant drop in home sales in the US of even 4,2% compared to the same month of 2023. At the same time the supply of houses is increasing, reaching a 22,7% increase in August from the same period last year, while the average price of homes are higher by 3,1% compared to the last year.
The Bank of Japan was also discussing the level of rates on JPY during the previous week, and decided to keep them at current levels. The BoJ Governor noted that the Bank is in no rush to increase interest rates, as they are looking for global uncertainties to decrease. This represents the important news for the markets, considering the significant amount of carry trades in JPY.
Apple released its new IPhone 16, however, the company is also in talks with JPMorgan to take over companies cards business from its current provider, Goldman Sachs. As news is reporting, the most challenging parts of negotiation are related to credit cards, considering increasing delinquencies on credit card repayments during this year.
Crypto market cap
Fed`s surprising 50 bps cut during the previous week was perceived overall positively by markets. The crypto market also benefited from increased investors' optimism, where BTC and ETH were leading the market cap to the upside. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 5%, bringing additional $96B to the value of this market. Daily trading volumes remained relatively stable during the week, moving around $104B on a daily basis, with a little change from the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $508B, which represents a 31% surge from the beginning of this year.
The majority of coins gained during the previous week, with the major ones attracting the most funds inflows in nominal terms. BTC managed to add almost 5% to its value on a weekly basis, increasing it by $59B. ETH followed the positive market sentiment, with an increase of its value of 7.3% on a weekly basis, adding $21B to market capitalization. BNB was also in the spotlight of investors, with an increase of 5.7% in value and adding $4.5% to its market cap. The $ 4B also managed to add market favorite Solana, increasing its cap by 6.2% w/w. In relative terms, solid weekly performers were Theta, with a surge in value of 7.7%, IOTA added 9.3% to its value, NEO jumped by almost 6%, while Monero was higher by 5.1% on a weekly basis. There were only a few coins which finished the week with a modest weekly loss, like ADA, which remained almost flat, Zcash was traded down by 2.5% while Maker dropped by 5.4%, but it should be noted that Maker`s 5.4% of circulating coins were withdrawn from the market during the previous week.
The previous week brought back some increased activity when circulating coins are in question. Maker had withdrawn 5.4% of its circulating coins from the market, while Polygon`s withdrawal was 4.5%. There is still no public information about what was behind these withdrawals. On the opposite side, IOTA added 0.6% more coins on the market, while LINK added even 3.1% more coins to the market. Tether added 0.5% new circulating coins, increasing the total market capitalization for this percentage.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot developments the crypto futures market also reacted positively to the Fed's rate cut and surge in value of crypto coins on the spot market. BTC futures were traded higher by around 5% for all maturities, while ETH futures were traded around 4.9% higher also for all maturities.
BTC`s futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $64.365, while those maturing a year later were last traded again above the $70K, ending the week at $71.195. ETH futures maturing at the end of this year reached the last price at $2.605, and those maturing in December 2025 are still struggling to reach the $3K level, still trading at $2.798.
“Cryptocurrencies on the Move”The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the listing and trading of options for BlackRock's IBIT. Bitcoin options trading on IBIT is expected to comply with BlackRock's standards. Following this development, the rise in cryptocurrencies has accelerated, with Bitcoin maintaining its push towards the 65,000 level.
Tecnically, if it surpasses the 65,000 resistance level, the 68,500 and then 71,675 resistance levels could be tested. On the downside, if Bitcoin breaks below the 63,300 level, a further decline toward the 60,000 and then 57,330 support levels could occur.
“Bitcoin is rising."Cryptocurrency markets are going through a dynamic period with significant developments. In Germany, 47 cryptocurrency exchanges were shut down by the Federal Criminal Police Office and the Internet Crime Complaint Center as part of efforts to combat money laundering activities. However, following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, there is a decline in dollar-denominated assets. This situation is supporting upward movements in Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, if it surpasses the 63,300 resistance level, the 65,000 and then 68,500 resistance levels could be tested. On the downside, if Bitcoin breaks below the 60,000 level, a further decline toward the 57,330 and then 54,000 support levels could occur.
MARKETS week ahead: September 16 – 22Last week in the news
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps at their September meeting, which had some modest influence on European markets. The more important macro news came from the US, where August inflation showed a further relaxation, opening a case for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets reacted positively to posted figures, where S&P 500 gained 4% on a weekly level, and is currently standing just 1% below its all time highest level. The US 10Y benchmark reached the levels below 3,7%, ending the week at the level of 3,65%. The demand for gold continues, pushing its price to a fresh new all time highest level at $2.577. Investors' optimism increased the demand for riskier assets, where BTC managed to reach the levels of $60K, as of the end of the week.
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps during the previous week. Such a move was expected by markets, considering the weakening Euro Zone economy. In an after the meeting speech, ECB President Lagarde did not provide any guidance over the further monetary policy moves, in terms of further cut of interest rates, except one comment that the direction of interest rates is “pretty obvious”. Analysts are generally in agreement that the ECB would have to further cut interest rates in order to support the weakened EU economy, with some voting for more aggressive cuts. The ECB inflation projections remained unchanged from June, however, growth forecasts were changed to the downside. At this moment, the ECB expects a yearly growth rate of 0,8% for 2024, and 1,3% in 2025. The modest growth is expected to be supported by a strong global economy and private consumption.
The US inflation in August reached 0,2% for the month and 2,6% on a yearly basis, showing that it is on a clear down path. This also leaves open space for the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming period. The majority of market participants are now perceiving a high probability that the Fed will make its first move at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The only question which now remains open is how aggressively the Fed will cut? Based on the CME Group FedWatch tool there is an equal number of market participants who are expecting 25 bps and 50 bps.
OpenAI, a creator of Chat GPT application, is starting a new round of funding in order to collect $6,5 billion through issuance of convertible notes. The funds will be used for further development of their artificial general intelligence (AGI) and also for company restructuring in order to remove a profit cap for investors.
MicroStrategy, a company known for its strong devotion and holding of BTC, used the latest dip in the price of BTC to purchase more coins. As company CEO, Michel Saylor posted on the X platform, the company now holds a total 244.800 BTC.
Crypto market cap
The pivotal point for the previous week was the release of the US inflation data for August. Figures were in line with market expectations, in which sense, market participants sustained the previous odds that the Fed will cut for the first time in this economic cycle at their September FOMC meeting. Rate cut is perceived positively by markets, as they expect that the environment of decreased interest rates would help companies to increase their businesses and earnings in the future period. This week the crypto market was also in the spotlight of investors. Although the first half of the week was a bit bumpy, still, Friday's trading session brought back confidence in the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 8% within a week, adding total $152B to its value. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $117B on a daily basis, from $79B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $412B, which represents a 25% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins gained during the previous week. The market was led by BTC, which managed to gain a little bit less from 10% on a weekly basis, increasing its market cap by $105B. ETH performed in a little bit shy manner, adding to its market cap $12.6B and increasing it by 4.5%. XRP also gained strongly in a week, increasing its value by 11.3% or $3.4B. BNB also performed solidly, with a surge in market cap of 9.6% adding SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:7B to it. The market favorite Solana was also among solid gainers, with an increase in value of 5.2% or $3.2B. The majority of other altcoins gained between 5% and 10%. There were only a few coins which did not manage to catch up with the general market, like Tron, which was down by 2.8% or Monero, which dropped by 2.2% on a weekly basis.
When it comes to the number of coins in circulation, the activity on the market was relatively lower from the week before. Algorand managed to increase the number of its circulating coins by 0.3%, same as Maker. This week, Filecoin was not leading the market, as it increased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, the same as Polkadot and Stellar. Tether increased its coins on the market by 0.3% same as its market capitalization.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reacted strongly to developments from the spot market. BTC short term futures were traded higher by more than 13% from the week before, while the long term ones were up by around 11.5%. BTC futures maturing in December 2024 closed the week at the level of $61.220, which was 12.15% higher from the close of the previous week. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $67.825 or 11.4% higher.
ETH short term futures closed the week by 11.8% higher from the week before. December 2024 reached the last market price at $2.477, which was by 10% higher on a weekly basis. December 2025 was last traded at $2.668, which was an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous week.
TOTAL Market Cap Faces Rejection at $2TCurrent Market Activity: This morning, the TOTAL market cap was rejected at the $2T level, the top of the range, and has begun retracing, potentially testing the bottom of the range at $1.85T once again.
Key Levels:
Top of Range: $2T (Rejected)
Bottom of Range: $1.85T (Potential test)
Previous High: $2.25T (Late August)
Bearish Signals: TOTAL has not created a higher high since reaching $2.25T, suggesting that the higher timeframe trend remains to the downside. A break below $1.85T could lead to a retest of the $1.7T level, which was last tested in early August.
Market Outlook: Watch for a decisive move at $1.85T for clues on the next direction.
#CryptoMarketCap #TOTAL #MarketAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #Downtrend #Bearish #Crypto #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
MARKETS week ahead: September 9 – 15Last week in the news
The previous week started with a negative market sentiment after leaked information regarding Nvidia's subpoena received from the U.S. Department of Justice, while the same sentiment continued till the end of the week, after releasing weaker than expected jobs data. Such sentiment increased US Dollar volatility, while the price of gold managed to sustain relatively higher levels, ending the week at $2.497. In expectation of a Feds higher rate cut, the US 10Y Treasury benchmark ended the week at 3,71%. The US equity markets had one of the worst weeks in this year, while the crypto market followed the negative sentiment for the second week in a row, with BTC closing at levels modestly below the $55K levels.
The week started with a negative sentiment, after the news was published that the US Justice Department pressed charges against market favorite Nvidia. As Bloomberg is reporting, the company Xockets Inc. pressed charges against both Nvidia and Microsoft Corp for illegally using seven patents from the company in relation to semiconductor technology used for the production of data processing units in chips used for the AI technology. The lawsuit is based on the violence of antitrust law in the US.
The week continued with high expectations with respect to US jobs data, which came out on Friday. Market volatility was significantly increased after the release of weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls for August. August's figure reached the level of 142K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see at least 160K. On a positive side is that the unemployment rate dropped a bit to the level of 4,2%, from 4,3% posted for the previous month. Other figures for the US economy, in terms of ISM indicators, are showing a positive development for the services sector in the US, while the manufacturing industry is still struggling to sustain a positive sentiment. After relatively weak jobs data for August, the market is rethinking a potential for Feds higher rate cut at their September FOMC meeting. There is currently an almost equal number of investors who are expecting 25 bps and 50 bps rate cuts. In an interview with CNBC, a Nobel prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz noted that the Fed raised interest rates too high too swiftly and that he would now vote for a higher rate cut, which was in line with expectations of economists from JPMorgan.
The previous week was not only bad for tech companies, but was also for the companies in the crypto industry. Both crypto exchangers and crypto miners experienced a selloff of shares. In line with a drop in the price of BTC and ETH, shares of the crypto exchanger Coinbase dropped down to the level of $147.
Crypto market cap
As the September FOMC meeting is nearing, the market nervousness is increasing. Last week`s weaker than expected US jobs figures, increased fears among market participants that the US economy is slowing down and that the Fed might cut interest rates higher from anticipated 25 bps in order to support the jobs market. In addition, negative news regarding Nvidia`s subpoena triggered general sell off of tech stocks, including also the crypto coins. Total crypto market capitalization decreased significantly during the last two weeks, while previous week only, total crypto market capitalization dropped by additional 7%, whipping out $134B from the market value. Again, the vast majority of crypto coins ended another week in red. Daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of $79B on a daily basis, from $103B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $260B, which represents a 16% surge from the beginning of this year.
Another losing week on the crypto market is behind. For another week BTC was dragging total crypto market capitalization to the downside. BTC lost 7.3% in value, decreasing its market cap by $87.6B. ETH followed the path, with a loss of 8.2% in value, or $25B. Among higher losers were BNB, with a droop in value of 5.6% or $4.3B, while market favorite Solana was traded down by 3.7%, decreasing its market value by $2.3B. XRP also lost almost $ 2B in value, dropping by 6.2% on a weekly basis. There have been only a few coins which managed to end the week in green, like Monero, with an increase in value of modest 1.9%, Uniswap was traded higher by 8.1%, while Algorand managed to gain 1.9% in value.
Another week with increased developments over the coins in circulation. Filecoin managed to add 0.4% of new coins to the market, while Solana, EOS and Polkadot added 0.2%. The winner of the week was Miota, with 0.6% more coins on the market within the single week.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reacted quite strongly to negative developments from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures ended the week lower for all maturities. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 10%, while the longer term ones were last traded down by 9%. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $54.590, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $60.860.
ETH short term futures closed the week by 14% lower from the end of the week before, with December 2024 closing price of $2.250. Longer term futures were traded some 11.5% lower on a weekly basis, where December 2025 reached the last price at $2.455.
$TOTAL Trump Pump Gets Wiped Out By New Indictment The Trump Pump gets wiped out by the Democrats' relentless legal pursuit to take him out of the race with today's new indictment against him.
If Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap does not hold the .236 fib, we will revisit the 1.8T range. That would be another 10% down from here.
Next critical support would be 1.479T, which would be a 20% sell-off.
I very well see this being a possibility to have one last real shake-out before rate cuts September 18th.
MARKETS week ahead: August 26 – 31Last week in the news
“The time has come for policy to adjust” were the words of Fed Chair Powell which marked the previous week impacting strongly market sentiment. Almost all markets reacted positively to a potential Feds pivoting point, with S&P 500 gaining 1,45% for the week and nearing its all time highest level from July this year. The US Dollar continued to lose strength, supporting the price of gold, which gained 1% during the week, ending it with a new ATH at the level of $2.530. In a quest for riskier assets, the crypto market also gained, with BTC reaching levels modestly below the $ 65K resistance line. The 10Y US Treasuries dropped to the level of 3,79% as of the end of the week.
The main event during the previous week was a Wyoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell held a speech. Each year this event is closely watched by markets in order to get a glimpse of potential future policy moves. This year's symposium was especially important, as Fed Chair Powell for the first time used the wording “the time has come for policy to adjust”, as inflation of 2,5% is on a track of Feds targeted 2%. This was a confirmation of market expectations that the potential first rate cut might occur at September's FOMC meeting. It should be noted that Fed Chair Powell did not comment on the exact timing of the policy adjustment, nor for how many basis points. The market is currently occupied with a question whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points.
Guests at the Jackson Hole Symposium were also representatives of the European Central Bank. its Chief economist, Philip Lane noted that the ECB is doing a good job in bringing inflation down to targeted 2%, however, the return to this target is still not assured. On the other side are analysts who are betting that the ECB would have to cut in September and again in December, considering that the environment of high interest rates is already significantly hurting growth of the EuroZone.
The CrowdStrike outage occurred this year, affecting millions of computers using Microsoft operating systems, and left a major question over the security and stability of operating programs like MS. In order to discuss challenges like this, Microsoft is organizing a cybersecurity event with CrowdStriek and other security companies in order to discuss potential solutions so that such events never again happen in the future. The conference will be held in September at MS campus in Redmond.
In a run for presidency, Donald Trump is certainly counting on the crypto community. As news are reporting, he first proclaimed himself as pro-crypto candidate, and now he is promoting a family-run DeFi project “The DeFiant ones” on his social platform. Although the platform is still pending official launch, there are already 40.000 followers subscribed.
Crypto market cap
The Fed Chair Powell mimicking potential rate cut in the coming period, at Jackson Hole Symposium was also positive for the crypto market. As investors are expecting that the environment of decreasing interest rates would impact funds currently placed at money market funds at rates around 5% would soon start to seek asset classes where they can make higher profits. One of such asset classes is certainly the crypto coins, especially BTC and ETH which entered into the mainstream through exchange traded funds. Although the crypto market spends the first half of the week at side trading, still at the end of the week the crypto market is finishing mostly within green territory. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 9%, mostly as of the end of the week, adding $177B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased to the level of $160B on a daily basis, compared to $ 95B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $589B, which represents a 36% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins finished the week in green. The market was led by BTC, which increased its market cap by $97B or 8.3% on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, which managed to add $22.4B to its total market cap, increasing it by 7.1%. XRP should be mentioned as the coin added almost $ 3B to its value within a single week, increasing it by 9.3%. This week Tether managed to add a figure above $ 1B to its cap, which was a weekly increase of 0.9%. Cardano performed very well during the week, with an increase of $2.3B in the value or 19.3%. Binance Coin was also one of the significant weekly winners, with a surge in value of $7.3B or 9.3%. Market bellowed Solana was also in the spotlight, as the coin added almost $ 10B to its market cap, which was an increase of almost 15% w/w. Polygon had an incredible week, with a surge of almost 42% in value. There are a significant number of other altcoins which managed to gain more than 20% on a weekly basis. Interestingly, there were also only a few weekly losers, like Bitcoin Gold, which was down by 9% w/w, or ZCash, dropping by 1.4%.
There has also been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. The highest weekly gainer is certainly Tether, with a surge of 0.9% of circulating coins on a weekly basis. IOTA is also posting some increased activity lately, with a weekly increase of 0.6% of circulating coins. This week Polygon and Filecoin added 0.3% more coins to the market, while Polkadot added 0.2% more coins.
Crypto futures market
This week the crypto futures market managed to align with the spot market and follow the investors sentiment. Both BTC and ETH futures posted an increase in futures value from the previous week. BTC both short and long term futures were traded by around 7% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year posted an increase of almost 10% on a weekly basis, ending the week at the level of $65.735. Futures maturing a year later were last traded at price $72.692.
Similar situation was with ETH futures. The short term ones were traded higher by more than 5% on a weekly basis, while the longer term ones were traded higher by some 4.6%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $2.855, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.044.
MARKETS week ahead: August 18 – 24Last week in the news
The lower than expected US inflation figures were the main driver of financial markets during the previous week. The US equities gained the most, with S&P 500 ending the week at the level of 5.554, and only 2% lower from it's all time highest level in July this year. The price of gold gained on a USD weakens, reaching a fresh new all time highest level of $2.506, reached on Friday. The US Treasury yields dropped to the level of 3.8% during the week, on inflation and PPI figures. The only market that was left behind during the week was the crypto market. BTC was traded within a relatively short range, struggling to hold the $60K level.
The inflation in the US is evidently slowing down. The posted figures for July are showing that the inflation reached 2.9% on a yearly basis, which was below market estimate of 3.0%. Core inflation was standing at 3.2% y/y. At the same time the Producer Price Index was increased by 0.1% in July, and was also below forecasted 0.2%, while core PPI was standing at 0% for the month. On the opposite side, posted Retail Sales figures for July were significantly higher from the market estimate, reaching 1.0% for the month, above forecasted 0.3%. This was a clear signal to investors that the inflation is slowing down, increasing the potential for the Fed's rate cut in September. At the same time, there is no indication that the US economy is nearing recession, but quite opposite, it is holding relatively solid, despite the environment of increased interest rates. The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for the end of the week ahead, where Fed Chair Powell will hold a speech. The markets will closely watch this event, in expectation of any new information which will confirm their expectation of a forthcoming rate cut.
The British fintech company Revoult passed through a secondary share sale during the previous week, where the company was valued at $45 billion. The Revoult recently gained a banking licence with restrictions from the U.K. authorities, while the investors valuation of $45B represents a significant shift from the $ 33B valuation the company posted in July 2021.
The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, noted in an interview with Chinese media that the financial risks in China's economy have decreased, and that he expects cooperation with the Ministry of Finance in order to reach defined economic growth for this year. The initial risks were related to the high amount of debt in China's housing market, impacting the local government.
JPMorgan published a research report, in which it is noted that the profitability of the crypto miners fell in August to an all time lowest levels, considering a 26% increase in a hashrate, which is at a record high. This is the main reason for a drop of 18% in the value of the total market cap of the fourteen U.S. listed miners.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was left behind investors' focus during the previous week. Current concern regarding the course of interest rates till the year end, turned the market interest back to equity markets, leaving the crypto market to trade in a mixed manner during the week. There were almost equal numbers of both buying and selling orders, leaving the crypto market to trade sort of the side. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by another 1% during the week, losing another $27B in its total cap. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, reaching levels around $ 95B on a daily basis, which is a modest drop from $107B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $412B, which represents a 25% surge from the beginning of this year.
This was one of the rare weeks when major coins did not play a crucial role in driving the market cap. Instead, this week investors were more focused on major altcoins. BTC performed in a mixed manner, losing more than 2% in value during the week, or around $25B. ETH is finishing the week relatively flat, with a modest drop on a weekly level of $ 1B in value or 0.3%. At the same time, Bitcoin Gold gained significantly, supported by ATH of gold, reached during the week, with an weekly gain of 15.5%, adding $ 62M to its market cap. Among gainers, DASH should be noted, as this coin managed to add 8.3% to its value during the week. Litecoin also performed well, with an increase in the market cap of 10.5% w/w. ZCash also closed the week higher by 9%. On the other hand, market bellowed Solana lost even 9.3%, while Polkadot was down by 8.9%. XRP dropped in value by around 5%, losing $1.6B in its market cap.
When it comes to coins in circulation, Tether managed to add 1.0% more coins to the market, increasing by this percentage its market capitalization, adding $1.17B to it. Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins, while Filecoin, traditionally, increased its circulating coins by 0.3%. During the week, Solana not only lost in value, but also decreased the number of coins on the market by 0.1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Some interesting developments occurred in the crypto futures market during the previous week. Namely, as BTC finished the week in red and ETH ended flat, still, these movements were not exactly reflected in the respective short term futures. BTC short term futures were last traded down by around 2.5%, while the long term ones were traded lower by 1.7%. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year dropped by 5% w/w, ending the week at the level of $59.770. December 2025 was closed at $68.290.
Opposite to the BTC futures, ETH futures closed the week in green. Short term futures were last traded around 0.8% higher from the week before, while the longer term ones, ended the week more than 1% higher. December 2025 ended the week at the level of $2.718, while December 2025 closed at $2.909.
TOTAL - An Overview on the crypto marketcap#TOTAL #Analysis
Description
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+ After a clear bounce from the support, another drop is occurring, which is normal.
+ We also have a strong support line that is providing significant support.
+ As long as the market cap remains above the horizontal and trendline support, there is hope for an upcoming bullish market.
+ A breakdown from this support zone could lead to further declines in the market.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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MARKETS week ahead: August 12 – 18Last week in the news
Previous week markets used to digest US economic data, and realized that there is still no need for fear of recession. Markets were traded with a positive sentiment covering some losses which were brought two weeks ago and on Monday, after posted US jobs data which were weaker than expected. The US Dollar continued to weaken, supporting the price of gold to finish the week for one more time above the $2.4K currently strong support line. The S&P 500 managed to gain above 4% on a weekly level, however, it should be considered that previously, the index lost some 10% from its recent peak level. The US Treasury yields were traded higher, returning to the 4.0% level. The crypto market also gained during the week, with BTC reaching again the $60K resistance line.
Start of the week brought sort of a relief on financial markets after the US ISM Services PMI was posted. The indicator was standing at the level of 51.4 in July, higher from market estimate of 51 and Jun`s figure of 49.6. The ISM Services Business Activity was 54.5 and ISM Services Employment was standing at 51.1. The indicator shows that the US services sector is in relatively good shape, in which sense, there is still no recession developing in the US. In addition, weekly jobless figures were posted for the first week of August, where initial jobless claims reached 233K, only a bit down from 240K forecast. It did not take long for the markets to enter into the correction mode and switch sentiment from negative to positive. The panic from Friday`s jobless figures was over. Regardless of these developments, the market still anticipates with high probability that the Fed`s pivoting moment will occur in September.
JPMorgan has officially launched the LLM Suite project, a generative AI assistant program, which helps employees in writing emails and reports. The program was developed in cooperation with OpenAI, a maker of ChatGPT. For more than a year JPMorgan banned ChatGPT to be used by their employees, providing them now an alternative, which would be more secure for data protection of the Bank.
Elly Lilly was the company which occupied a lot of news space during the previous week, as its shares rose more than 11% for the week. The surge occurred after the company posted Q2 results and expectations that the full year revenues will be higher by $3 billion from initially estimated, due to a boost in sales of its two drugs for weight loss and diabetes.
The US Internal Revenue Service has released a new tax form for crypto brokers, which will be in effect from the year 2025. The form 1099-D will be distributed to clients of crypto brokerage firms, and it is expected to introduce more clarity and transparency when it comes to tax filings on crypto transactions.
Crypto market cap
It was indeed a stressful week on the crypto market, as well as on almost all financial markets. The fear over potential US recession and Fed`s forced cut of interest rates was so strong that almost all markets had a strong push to the downside. Still, the posted ISM data showed that the state of the US economy is not in a bad shape, which turned back investors optimism and a rebound of the value of financial assets. However, it should not be overseen that something did change. Analysts are pointing that the significant drop in the Yen carry trade is still not over and that currently some significant amount of positions is still open. A further increase of interest rates by the Bank of Japan might trigger similar developments in the future period. Still, despite a highly volatile week, total crypto market capitalization managed to stay relatively flat compared to the end of the week before. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, losing around $ 29B in value. At the same time daily trading volumes modestly decreased during the week to the level of $107B on a daily basis, as of the weekend, from $170B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $439B, which represents a 27% surge from the beginning of this year.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. There were altcoins with significant gains on a weekly level, however, there were the ones which finished the week with a loss. Regardless of significant fluctuations in price during the week, BTC gained 0.9% on a weekly level, adding $10.6B to its market cap. On the other side, ETH made a significant drop of 9.2% w/w, losing almost $ 32B in value. XRP had a very good week, where the coin managed to increase its value by $8.9% adding $2.7B to its market cap. ZCash was traded on a positive side and increased its value by 27% w/w. Solana continues to be currently one of markets favorite coins, which increased its cap by 10% w/w or by $6.6B. Interestingly, one of the highest weekly losers was Maker, who decreased its value by almost 15% on a weekly level. There is still no official information what was the cause of such a significant drop for this coin.
There has been increased activity with coins in circulation. Tether increased the number of coins on the market by 1.0% w/w, increasing by this percentage its total market cap. XRP, Solana, Polkadot, Polygon and Filecoin increased their number of coins by 0.2% each. Thai week Miota was active and increased its circulating coins by 0.6% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Considering extremely high volatility, the crypto futures market was trying to catch up with the spot market, however, finishing the week at the lower levels from the spot market. BTC short term futures ended the week around 3% lower from the week before. December 2024 was last traded at the price of $62.975. Longer term futures were traded by 3.2% lower for all maturities, where December 2025 ended the week at the level of $69.485.
ETH futures made a higher move to the downside. Short term futures ended the week by around 14% lower from the week before, same as the longer term ones. Futures maturing in December 2024 were last traded at price $2.686, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.877.
#BTCUSD/H4 BTCUSD opportunity to buy backBTCUSD analysis on 12/08/2024:
BTCUSD is showing an upward trend after a correction to around 49000. BTCUSD did not have a deep correction as expected, but it is currently a good trading opportunity.
The current trend for BTCUSD is LONG. Key price levels to note: 56000 - 56700; 55000 - 55200; and 53000 - 53200.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: LONG BTCUSD zone 56300 - 56600
SL 56000
TP 57700 - 59000 - 60000.
Plan 2: LONG BTCUSD zone 53000-53200
SL 49600
TP 55100 - 57700 - 60000.
Biggest Day in the Crypto Market the Entire Bull Run!Absolute FACE MELTING day in the market today.
The biggest inflow of capital in the entire Bull Run!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL market cap pumped 13.75%
Bulls have reclaimed the .236 Fib
I expect a bit of a sell-off here, but if we can hold this level, we very well could have seen the bottom.
MARKETS week ahead: August 5 – 10Last week in the news
Previous week was marked with a lot of news, unfortunately with a negative sentiment for investors in financial markets. The FOMC meeting brought “nearing” a rate cut, which was generally positive, however, surprisingly weak jobs data made investors to re-think their positions, fearing a potential recession in the US. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets with a rate increase of 25 bps, pushing parity of the Yen 8% higher against US Dollar. The US equity markets continued with a correction, with S&P 500 ending the week at the level of 5.346. The US Dollar and the US Treasury yields reacted strongly on weak jobs data on Friday, bringing the USD lower and 10Y Treasury benchmark at the level of 3.78%. Aside from weakening of USD, the price of gold reacted to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, still ending the week at the level of $2.443, after a profit taking. The crypto market was the worst weekly performer, where BTC reached a support level at $60K.
The Federal Reserve held a regular meeting on Wednesday, and held the rates unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting. Still, the only significant change in Fed Chair Powell`s rhetoric is that the first rate cut is “nearing”. The markets are now strongly perceiving that the first rate cut will occur in September. At this moment, there are some 58% odds that the rate cut will be 50 bps, instead of previously anticipated 25 bps, considering weak July`s jobs data. There is also discussion among investors that July`s jobs data showed the potential that the US is slowly entering into the recession. However, there are also few analysts who are noting that there might be a seasonal effect in July`s weak jobs data.
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to the levels around 0.25%, from the previous range of 0.0%-0.1% and is halving its bond-buying purchase program. The BoJ Governor Ueda did not rule out another hike of rates during this year. At the same time, Yen strengthened against the US Dollar by around 8%. A move from the BoJ is significant for the US markets due to heavy carry trade which investors are traditionally using. Namely, investors are using interest rate differentials, and through leveraged funds in Yen with low interest rates to finance investments in the US markets. Increased interest rates and strengthening of Yen will impact investors to close some positions, which might bring additional negative impact to the US financial markets.
Another news that hit the US stock markets during the previous week, was that Warren Buffet`s Berkshire Hathaway cut holdings of AAPL by almost 50%. At the same time, their cash holdings reached $276 billion from $189 billion posted for the first quarter. These figures were obtained from the company's quarterly filings, but the company itself did not make any comments. The analysts are referring to Warren Buffet`s comment to shareholders made in may, where he noted that the current stocks are too expensive in order to make a solid profit for the company.
Crypto market cap
The previous week was a tight one for the crypto market. The week started with unconfirmed news that the US Government has transferred around $2 billion worth of BTC to the unknown address. Based on a name provided, it seems that this transfer is related to the Silk Road DoJ. A lot of investors were concerned that this might be related to a potential sale of BTC, and started closing positions, in a fear of a potential BTC price drop. The week continued with news that BoJ increased interest rates, in which sense, some decrease in a carry trade might be expected. Friday`s weak jobs data increased fears among investors over a potential for a recession in the US. All these factors had an impact for investors' re-positioning, in which sense, the crypto market suffered another losing week. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 11% on a weekly basis, whipping out around $263B from the crypto market. Daily trading volumes reached levels around $170B on a daily basis, which is significantly higher from $101B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year dropped to $ 468B, which represents a 29% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins lost value during the previous week. Certainly, BTC was the one to lose the most in nominal terms. BTC decreased its market capitalization by almost $171B, which represents a 12.5% drop on a weekly basis. ETH was following the general market trend, and decreased its cap by almost 12% or $46B. Previous week Solana was the one of the coins with a significant drop in the market cap of $19.2B or 22.6% on a weekly basis. Another coin which should be mentioned in this group is Binance Coin, which decreased its cap by $8.5B or 10%. In relative terms altcoins lost a significant portion of their value, which ranges from 10% - 20%. Among higher losers in relative terms were Filecoin, with a drop of 20.5%, DOGE was down by almost 20%, Theta lost 21.2% in value. One of the rare coins which managed to actually increase its market cap on a weekly level is Zcash, which managed to add almost 2% to its market cap.
There has been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Polkadot was the coin which strongly increased the number of its coins on the market by 2.7%. Filecoin traditionally increased its circulating coins by 0.3% this week, while Stellar and Tether had an increase of the number of coins by 0.2% w/w.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market closed on Friday, so developments on the spot market have not been fully captured in the closing prices for the week. Nevertheless, both BTC and ETH futures closed the week more than 8% lower from the week before.
BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $64.775, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $71.780. On a positive side is that the futures maturing in December 2025 are still holding above the $70K level, which is a positive sign that the market is perceiving current drop in prices as only a temporary. ETH December 2024 futures closed the week at $3.125, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.346.
Bitcoin is losing its control. Don't lose your own!Bitcoin continues to retreat from the historical highs reached in the March quarter of 2024, as discussed in many previous posts, minds and publications.
In nowadays BTC is declining to new local lows as the macroeconomic situation in the global economy worsens and volatility (uncertainty) in the market as a whole increases.
The technical picture indicates a breakout below the growth channel, within the boundaries of which BTC has rallied for the past year and a half.
A further break below the 52-week SMA will highly likely intensify the sell-off.
MARKETS week ahead: July 29 – August 03Last week in the news
The released June PCE Index was the major driver of the sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. The US Dollar strengthened during the week, however, PCE data pushed the currency into correction. Following the correlation with the USD, the price of gold ended the week a bit higher from previous weekly levels, at $2.385. The 10Y Treasury yields were optimistic about the potential rate cut in September, pushing yields lower from 4.20% level. In light of potential rate cuts, investors are switching attention to small cap stocks, in which sense, the S&P 500 continued with a correction to the downside during the week, ending it at the level of 5.459. In a quest for riskier assets, investors pushed the price of BTC toward the levels above the $68K. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, hence, market nervousness might continue.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was published on Friday, posting an increase of 0.1% for a month, bringing it to the level of 2.5% on a yearly basis in June. At the same time, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% y/y. The posted results were in line with the market estimate. Current market sentiment regarding potential Fed's rate cut in September is best described by Rober Frick, economists working with Navy Federal Credit Union, who note in an interview with CNBC: “Spending is good enough to maintain the expansion, and income is good enough to maintain spending, and the level of PCE inflation is good enough to make the decision to cut rates easy for the Fed”.
Apple is no longer a top smartphone seller in China, as per analysis conducted by the Canalys. The domestic Huawei took the advantage on China's market from Apple. Since the beginning of the year, Apple's sales in China are in decline by 25% on a yearly basis.
In light of the US equity market correction during the previous two weeks, analysts from UBS continue to be positive on the future developments on this market. In their positive view, they are noting positive economic growth in the US. The further development within the IT industry and increased AI use, they see as a positive factor for the future development of stock prices of tech companies.
The first spot ETH exchange traded fund started trading in the US, after SEC`s approval. The interest of investors was significant, reaching $1 billion during the first trading day. Black Rock`s ETH ETF saw around $800 million in inflows during the first two days. Still, the staking in the ETH would not be possible for the moment, as this product might violate several SEC`s rules and the US Law on securities.
Howard Lutnick, CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzerald noted at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville that the company is planning to launch a $2 billion in bitcoin financing business. The plan of the company is to provide leverage to bitcoin holders.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was traded in a relatively mixed manner during the previous week. There have generally been two major events that shaped the market sentiment. The first one is related the first to ETH ETF which was released for trading, after SEC`s approval, and the other one is related to macro data in the US, where the release of June PCE data showed slowdown in inflation, supporting market expectations that the first rate cut might occur in September this year. Namely, as expectation in an environment of decreasing interest rates is surging, the investors are of the opinion that it would be positive for the crypto market, as investors would seek riskier assets for higher returns on their investments. Certainly, the majority of crypto investors were looking at developments with ETH, as the first ETH ETF managed to collect over $ 1B in funds during the first trading day. In this sense, some re-adjustments of positions in altcoins occurred. Regardless of a surge in the price of BTC, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, where the market lost some $36B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of $101B on a daily basis, from $136B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $731B, which represents a 45% surge from the beginning of this year.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. BTC managed to end the week in a positive manner, adding $ 26B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.9% on a weekly basis. Still, due to the start of trading of the first ETH ETF, there has been a drop in the market cap of ETH by 7.5% w/w, where the coin lost some $ 32B in value. Among other altcoins, there has been almost an equal number of losers and gainers. On a gaining side were coins like ZCash, which added 8.5% to its market cap, Solana is still in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 5%, while Tron managed to add 2.4% value to its market cap. Among altcoins who lost in value during the week were Theta, with a drop of 7.3%, OMG Network was down by 7.5%, while Algroand dropped by almost 11%. Among coins who finished the week in red were Polkadot, with a drop of 8.1% w/w, Maker was down by 6.9%, while the majority of other altcoins lost up to 5% in value.
There has been several developments when coins in circulation are in question. During the week, Tether added 0.4% new coins to the market, increasing its market capitalization by this percentage. IOTA added 0.6% of new coins, which is not so frequently seen with this coin. Filecoin, traditionally, has increased its number of coins by 0.3% on a weekly level. Interestingly, Binance Coin pulled 1.1% of its coins from the market. There are no further details publicly available at this moment, what was behind such a pull back.
Crypto futures market
Movements from the spot market were reflected in the spot market, in which sense, BTC and ETH futures were traded in opposite directions. BTC futures were traded higher from the week before for all maturities. However, it should be noted that the movements on the futures market were lower from the spot market. BTC short term futures were traded around 0.5% on average, higher from the week before, while the longer term ones were higher by around 1% on a weekly level. BTC futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $70.645, and those maturing a year later, at the price of $78.155.
The first trading day of the ETH ETF pushed the price of ETH to the lower grounds, as well as ETH futures which were traded around 7.3% lower from the week before. ETH futures maturing in December this year closed the market at level of $3.406, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.646.