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CRYPTO week ahead: September 26 – October 2Last week in the news Although the markets were expecting another FED's rate hike, FEDs Chair Powell's address after the FOMC meeting was the major trigger to support market`s negative sentiment. Both US and EU markets were closed lower on Friday, including the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below support line at $20K, while Ether modestly recovered above $1.3K. As it has been expected, the FED increased its benchmark interest rates by additional 75bps. Although the markets were expecting such a move from FED, still the statement made by the FED`s Chair Powell after the meeting was the one that triggered markets downturn as of the end of the previous week. He expressed some very concerning expectations that the economic output will drop, unemployment will increase in the future period while during this time FED will continue to increase interest rates and withdraw liquidity from the economy. By FED`s expectations, the inflation will return to targeted 2% until year 2025. The 2Y Treasury bonds reached level of 4.2% on Friday, which is a 15-year high for this bond, while 10Y continued to rise to the level of 3,67%. After last month’s announcement from BlackRock of its intentions to offer crypto currencies to its institutional clients, during the last week Nasdaq issued a statement with information that the second largest US stock market is beginning operations covering a crypto custody service to its clients. Those two are the latest big names from traditional finances who are entering into the crypto business. As per analysts involved in the matter, this could be treated as only the beginning of the TradFi penetration into the crypto markets. In anticipation of a potential finalisation of the resolution of the Ripple Labs dispute with the SEC, the investors interest for Ripple`s coin XRP was significantly increased during the previous week. XRP managed to reach a level of $0.5 despite a general negative trend on the crypto market during the last week. Considering that the SEC and Ripple Labs filed for summary judgement, it increased expectations from market participants that the final resolution might be ruled by the court until the end of this year. It has been officially announced that the co-founder of the crypto exchange Kraken, Jesse Powell, will step down as a CEO of Kraken. It is expected that Kraken`s COO, Dave Ripley, will take over the CEO position. At the same time, Powell will remain within the company as a chairman of the Board and be further involved on product developments. The JPMorgan noted few concerns regarding the latest Ethereum network upgrade, popularly called Merge. Namely, as noted by the bank, introduction of new EtherPoW might bring a division in the Ethereum community and also that the blockchain became less decentralised, as majority of coins are holded by the minority of entities. The big win for Coinbase was the approval of operations from the Dutch central bank, during the previous week. Although this approval means that the exchanger can offer products and services only in the Netherlands, the introduction of the EU regulation MiCA will provide the opportunity to Coinbase to offer its products across the EU countries. Crypto market cap What FED`s Chair Powell said in a statement after the FOMC meeting is that FED is willing to crush the economy in order to halt the inflation. Although he was not using the same words, this is what investors on the market actually heard. What is more depressing is that he noticed a year 2025 when inflation might return to targeted levels. Certainly, any sort of optimisms on markets had been crushed, and the future path is pretty clear by now – the squeeze of liquidity might further decrease the value on the markets, including also the crypto market. In line with the market sentiment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by $35B or 4% during the previous week. Daily trading volumes continue to be constant, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.278B, which is a total drop of 59%. Previous week`s drop in the crypto market capitalization was led by major coins, BTC and ETH, which combined lost a total amount of $33B. Altcoins were traded in a mixed mode. BTC decreased its market cap by 4.5% or $17B, while Ether outperformed BTC in a relative sense by decreasing its cap by 8.5% or $15B. In a relative terms, coins which lost the most during the week are Ethereum Classic, with a drop of almost 15% in market cap, and is followed by EOS which also had an decrease in value of almost 16%. On the other hand, XRP had a very good week, where the coin managed to increase market capitalization by $5B or 27% on a weekly basis, supported by potential dispute between SEC and Ripple Labs. Dogecoin, Stellar and Miota were also coins which managed to increase market cap by more than 6%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins for several weeks now, adding 2.5% to total coins during the previous week. Crypto futures market Market fears over potential future recession in the US, supported by the central banker`s moves in order to fight inflation, turned the financial markets to the red zone, including futures market. BTC futures with shorter maturity were down by some 4%, with December 2022 closing at the price below $19K. Longer term maturities were down by some 2% on average. The drop in ETH future prices was higher, where all maturities were traded at prices around $1.3K. Short term maturities dropped by more than 9%. December this year was closed at $1.280. Longer term maturities were down by some 13% on average.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: September 19 – 25Last week in the news Financial markets closed lower after posted US inflation figures on Thursday. It is part of a positioning for new FED's rate hikes, as it is expected to occur at the FOMC regular meeting, as of September 20-21st. Bitcoin continues to test $20K, while Ether had an important week as implementation of the Merge fork has been finalised. Investor’s confidence has been shaken during the previous week, as the US inflation data showed a bit higher figures than the once the market was expecting. As per official data, inflation in the US increased by 0.1% to the level of 8.3% in August. At the same time the market was expecting the figure to drop by 0.1% for the same period. Core inflation was up by 0.6% on a monthly basis, leading to total yearly core inflation to 6.3%. These figures were perceived negatively by the market, supporting their expectation that the FED will further increase benchmark interest rates at their next meeting on September 20-21st . Markets were traded lower after this news, while US 2Y Treasury bond yields rose to the highest level of 3.8%, while benchmark 10Y rose to 3.45% as of the end of the week. It was a very important week for Ethereum network, as the long awaited Merge fork had been implemented. As per professionals within the industry, the fork was a huge success for Etherum and sort of a “game changer” for the crypto world, as it is supposed to cut energy consumption by 99%. The fork is supposed to support Ethereum token, Ether, as it now becomes a “productive asset”. However, on the opposite side, not all crypto miners were happy with this improvement. Industry specialists are stressing the issues with connections to the servers in order to mine PoW ETH. Professionals with higher speed of their networks were able to connect, while others did not have this privilege. During the previous week the White House released a framework on the future regulation of the crypto market in the US. The document does not have any legal implications, but it will be used as a guideline for institutions that regulate financial markets, like SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The framework covers crypto industry payments but also investors protection and promotion of financial stability. As it has been stated by the state officials, the aim of such a document is to put the US as a leader in governance of the crypto ecosystem. In its attempt to push further with the implementation of digital euro, the ECB made a pick of several companies, including Amazon and a group of 31 banks and credit institutions, which currently have the capacity for testing personal payments in digital assets. Crypto market cap Macro fundamentals continue to shape the sentiment of investors on financial markets. Latest figures on US inflation, which were modestly higher than expected, supported negative market sentiment, perceiving that the FED will most certainly increase further interest rates at their September`s meeting. This also means further tightening of monetary policy and less liquidity on the market, in which sense, the market is positioning accordingly, pushing the value to the downside. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization dropped again below $1 trillion in value, ending the week around level of $940B. This was a decrease of 7% on a weekly basis, where around $66B has been lost. Daily trading volumes continue to be at a higher level, but still, without much change from the week before, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.243B, which is a total drop of 57%. Majority of coins lost some of the value during the previous week, still, around 85% of the drop was led by three most significant coins on the market: BTC, ETH and BNB. Previous week`s drop was led by Ether, which lost almost $31B or 15% in value during the single week. ETH was followed by BTC with a drop of $22B in market cap or more than 5%. BNB`s market cap was down by $2B or almost 5%. In a relative sense, the coin which lost the most during the week was EOS, with a drop of 20% in value, and is followed by Zcash, which lost 10%, same as Maker. Only a few coins managed to gain during the week, one of which is XRP, with a gain of $1B in market cap or almost 6%. In this group falls also LINK who added 3% to its value. As for coins in circulation, the highest increase was Uniswap, which added 2.2% of new coins, followed by Filecoin with an additional 1.9% of coins in circulation. Crypto futures market Crypto futures were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. BTC short term futures were down by some 8% on average, on fears from further FED's rate hike. Long term futures were up by more than 2% on a weekly basis, where December 2022 were closed modestly below $20K. On the other hand, ETH futures continue to be under influence of Merge fork. As it has been expected, successful implementation of the fork moved both spot and future prices to the downside as many of the open positions were speculative in nature. However, analysts are noting that shortening of ETH futures might continue due to staking yields, because staked ether might be withdrawn after implementation of Shanghai fork, which will occur in the mid-2023. During the previous week short term ETH futures were traded lower by 16%, while longer term future prices were down by some 8% on average. The price for December this year was traded below $1.5K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: September 12 – 18Last week in the news Markets modestly rebounded as of the end of the previous week, after the ECB's raise of interest rates by 75bps. At the same time, positive developments were also on the crypto market, with Bitcoin`s return to levels above 20K, while Ether is counting days until the implementation of the Merge fork, ending the week above $1.7K. There has been a lot of central banker`s activity during the previous week. The most important news is related to ECB`s increase of benchmark interest rates, for the second time within the last 11 years. Increase on Thursday was by75 bps, however, ECB officials noted that more increases might come in the following period, as they expect for inflation “to stay above target for an extended period”. On the same day, FED Chair Powell in a public appearance stressed for one more time FED`s commitment to return inflation to targeted 2%. This implies further higher interest rates. However, in the week ahead markets are expecting to see some cooling down in the US inflation figures, which will be released on Tuesday, with expected core inflation at 6% and inflation at 8,1% y/y . Topic about the mining industry's influence on climate change continues to be one of the main discussion points in the US, but also across developed countries. The White House of Science and Technology Policy issued a report, noting that energy consumption used for mining crypto currencies threatens the US achievement of goals related to mitigation of climate change impacts. As it has been noted, significant consumption of energy is currently equal to consumption of all residential lightning in the US, and contributes to almost 0.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Securities and Exchange Commission officials continue to call for enforcement of laws within the crypto industry. SEC`s Chair Gary Gensler pointed this week to the unregistered exchangers operating within the US, that SEC will not “sit idle” , expecting from them to officially register tokens as securities. Latest decision from Binance for conversion of all existing stablecoins, USDC, TUSD and USDP to binance USD (BUSD) is perceived positively by analysts. They are noting that this move would certainly increase the supply of BUSD, by some estimates for $908 million. Also, in the long term it could have an additional positive effect, as more users will get familiar with this stablecoin, which might additionally boost the supply amount of this coin. Crypto market cap During the previous week, the ECB raised its interest rates by 75bps, while FED officials continued with old rhetoric regarding monetary tightening in order to bring back inflation to the targeted level of 2%. There has not been any negative market reaction to these news, in which sense, it looks like that the market has already priced future rate increases. This made a positive impact also on the crypto market. During the previous week total market capitalization reached again $1 trillion in value, increasing it by 6% on a weekly basis. Major coins supported this increase, although altcoins also had good performance. On a positive side is also that daily trading volumes had been modestly increased to the average level of $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.177B, which is a total drop of 54%. Total crypto market capitalization reached $1 trillion again, after a modest drop during August and beginning of September this year. Although this is positive news, the currently unstable macroeconomic environment continues to be a threat to the overall economic growth, and in this sense, it might contribute to the crypto market`s slow recovery in the future period. Last week`s increase in total crypto market capitalization was led by major coins: Bitcoin, Ether and Binance Coin. Ether continues to be supported by forthcoming Merge fork, in which sense, coin performed almost the same as BTC, increasing its market cap by $21B or 11%, while Bitcoin added $27B or 7% to its total cap. BNB continues to gain in strength, with a surge in market cap by $2.5B or more than 5%. Another coin which added an amount above $1B was Solana, with an increase in cap by 12% on a weekly basis. Altcoins with significant growth in value during the week were EOS with an increase of 21%, followed by Ethereum Classic and Bitcoin Gold, with a surge in market cap by 20% and 16% respectively. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues with its growth, adding 1.4% in circulating coins, while Uniswap had an decrease by 11% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market During the previous week, futures for both BTC and ETH were supported by the positive market sentiment, reflected in the spot market. ETH continues to trade at higher grounds, with the forthcoming Merge fork strongly supporting the price for both short and long term futures. During the previous week short term ETH futures were traded around 11% higher, reflecting the spot market. Longer term futures were traded on average 7% higher, where maturities as of December this year reached levels above $1.7K. At the same time, prices for next year were traded at lower grounds, above $1.6K, which points to investors uncertainty over market conditions during the next year. BTC short term futures were up by 7% on average compared to the week before, however, there had been a drop in price of longer maturities, which ranged about 2%. On a positive side is that December this year was traded above $21K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: September 5 – 11Last week in the news The US equity market continued modest decline during the previous week, following solid US job market data which are adding to the probability that the FED will continue to hike interest rates. Crypto market continues to move in a relatively low range due to the same reason. Bitcoin is ending another week around the $20K support line; Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming fork. The US jobs market added additional 315K jobs in August, as official data show. At the same time, average hourly earnings were up by 5.2% y/y, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7%. There is, however, one tricky part in the August job report, which shows that full time jobs fell by 242K, while part time jobs increased by 434K. This might be due to a seasonal effect, while it also might point that there are general changes on the US jobs market. Investors perceive these data as a signal that the FED would most probably continue to increase interest rates further, since increased wages and jobs in the US would push inflation to the higher ground. In an interview with CNBC, a University professor Joseph Stiglitz expressed his concerns that aggressive rate hikes by the FED might have a negative effect on the economy, and might even further support inflation increase in the US. He also commented on recent data on the US jobs market, noting that real wages are not going up, but when adjusted for inflation, they actually are going down. The upgrade of the Cardano network, called Vasil, is officially scheduled to take place on September 22nd , as announced by the Input Output development lab. The main purpose of this fork is to reduce transaction costs. This news supported the price of ADA on Fridays and Saturday`s trading, moving it up by 1% higher. During the week there has been some positive news for Algorand network, as FIFA announced that it will launch a NFT collection for its 2022 Qatar World cup. These NFT`s will be launched to remember the best moments of this tournament like best goals, celebrations, etc., on Algorand network. The International Monetary Fund commented on ongoing plans of central banks in the world for introduction of digital currencies with a call for the IMF to develop a central system which will be used for international transfers, where costs of these transfers will be significantly decreased. As per IMF research, there are currently a total of 97 countries which are in different phases of introduction of their own CBDC`s. Crypto market cap After last week's FED Chair Powell speech at a conference at Jackson Hole, markets continued to trade in a relatively calm mode, in anticipation of further FED`s move in bringing the inflation to targeted 2%. Latest posted macro figures are showing that the jobs market continues to grow, however, economists are pointing to a possibly tricky part of the figures. Namely, full time jobs are dropping in the US, while August figures were driven by an increase in part-time jobs. During the previous week , the crypto market was traded relatively flat compared to the week before. Crypto market capitalization was increased by $11B or 1%, mostly driven by Ether and altcoins. Daily trading volumes were also flat, moving around $109B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.232B, which is a total drop of 56%. Last week`s increase in total crypto market capitalization of 1% was led by Ether and altcoins, while Bitcoin did not perform within the green zone. Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming Merge fork, which pushed coin`s market cap to the upside by additional $9B or 5% on a weekly basis. There are several altcoins which performed well during the week, supported by fundamentals around them. News regarding the forthcoming Vasil fork in September, supported an increase in Cardano`s market cap by more than $1B or 7.7% w/w. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, which increased its total market value by 13%. There are several coins which finished the week in red territory. Most important here is Bitcoin, who finished the week by $4B less in market value, which is a decrease by 1% w/w. As for total circulating coins, Uniswap had an weekly increase by 13% of coins in circulation, while Polygon`s increase was by 2.4%. Crypto futures market During the previous week Ether outperformed Bitcoin not only on a spot market, but also on futures market. Namely, as per reports from the futures market, trading with Ether futures has significantly increased lately, as investors are creating trading strategies around forthcoming Merge fork. Current participation of Ether futures in the total futures trading, currently stands at 57%. ETH short term futures were traded higher during the week by some 1.1% on average, from a week before. At the same time, BTC futures were traded down by more than 3%. As for longer periods, the situation is relatively the same for both coins, as they were traded down by around 10%. BTC futures ending in December this year have dropped below $20K for the first time since July this year. ETH futures for the same period continue to hold above $1.5K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAPUnless we see TOTAL below 931.33B and HOLDING I cannot be bearish We may be seeing a classic case of previous resistance becoming support... We will see how it plays out Sentiment at least from what I am seeing is very bearish. So we could have people either waiting to go long lower (who may chase if we rebound) or we have possibly shorts chasing at the lows for a breakout I am betting 931B holds up for longs and we can get a reversal targeting 986B or clip 1T before I expect selling pressure could be very heavy there
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TheFibonacciKing
CRYPTO week ahead: August 29 – September 4Last week in the news For one more time FED is spoiling the game. After announcements from FED Chair Powell that interest rate hikes are not over, markets reacted in a negative mood. Both EU and US markets were closed in red on Friday, while the crypto market continued with downtrend during the weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week around $20K support line, while Ether fell below $1.5K. FED Chair Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday, revealing information regarding FED`s view on current macro developments. Major point of his speech was further FED`s commitment to fight inflation, in which sense, more rate hikes are quite probable. Actually his words were “no place to stop or pause '', regardless of the fact that current benchmark rates are around the neutral zone. Although the job market is still strong and inflation is peaking, effects of increased interest rates are already seen on the housing market, and economic output of the country. Economists are starting to express worries that another dip in equities might come in the coming period as an effect of FED's policy. Venture capitalists are not giving up on the tech world. In an interview with CNBC, Edith Yeung, a general partner at Race Capital, expressed her view that it is good that crypto market lost more than half of its value during this year, because it will drag away people who want short-term profit from it, and actually don't have interest for its long-term development. On the other hand, she is pointing that crypto is actually related to the development of Web3, where the future value stands. Coinbase crypto exchanger announced that the company will add non ether futures contracts, which would be available for trading on their derivatives platform. Two months ago Conbase introduced nano bitcoin futures. As it has been noted, nano futures represent 1/100 of a coin and allows for their clients less initial capital for trading these derivatives. As Coindesk is reporting, Binance crypto exchanger and town of Busan in South Korea signed a Memorandum of understanding, which is the basis for business relationship in which Binance will help this city to develop its own blockchain ecosystem. This includes technological, infrastructural and educational support. Japan will review their current tax law during 2023, under which a heavy tax burden of 55% on gains from tokens might exclude start up companies in this country. This came as a result of efforts from crypto lobby groups, who are voicing support for the crypto industry and especially increasing the number of new companies from the tech industry in Japan. Crypto market cap In anticipation of a FED Chair Powell speech at the yearly conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday, markets were traded sort of sideways during the week. Friday was the day when FED officials shared important news that monetary tightening is still not over and that further rate increases are on the way. Certainly this is not something that was welcomed by markets, so reaction was imminent and negative. Considering that the crypto market became a part of the mainstream, it also reacted in a negative manner. Total market capitalization has decreased by $57B or 6% on a weekly basis. Unfortunately, this does not mean that market correction might not continue in a week ahead, considering that correction as of the weekend is related mostly to BTC and ETH as leading coins, who lost in total $44B. At the same time, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to average $109B, compared to the $110B from the week before. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year has further decreased to the level of $1.243B, which is a total drop of 57%. Coins that led to a total market capitalization decrease were Bitcoin with a drop of $24B or 6% on a weekly basis and Ether with a decrease of $19B or almost 10%. All other altcoins lost in value, however, this drop was in a range from 3% up to 10%, depending on a coin, which might be seen as a positive move regardless of generally negative market sentiment. Among coins which lost value above $1B were Solana, with a drop in market cap of almost $2B or 15% and Binance Coin, with a drop in the cap of $1.5B or 3%. It is interesting that during the week many altcoins increased the volume of coins in circulation, which helped them to sustain their market cap. Polygon increased coins in circulation by 5.5%, Filecoin continues to gain volumes with last week`s increase by 2.3%, while surprise of the week was certainly LINK which added 4.5% more coins within a single week. Crypto futures market Crypto futures continue to trade lower in line with the spot market. BTC futures with shorter maturity were traded down by more than 3%, while ETH futures for the same period were traded lower by more than 8% compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures maturing in December this year were down by 10% w/w, where price was holding modestly above $20K. ETH futures for the same period were down by 7%, however, its price dropped below $1.6K. A drop in spot prices which occurred during the weekend has not been priced in futures of coins, considering that the official market closes on Friday.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
3/3 times this was a good time to buy crypto. Is now the 4th...?Playing around with statistics and probabilities... Some people seem to believe in RSI and stoch RSI indicators (overbought / oversold markets). Especially when combined with powerful price action such as resistance and support levels. Such confluences seem popular statistical signals to buy or sell the market or at least start a DCA process. Let's check what it suggests this time - and remember "past performance does not guarantee future results". ;-) The total crypro market cap seems to have retested a significant level: 2018 Jan all-time market top. That level was broken through only several months later and the price never came back down to retest this level. Until the recent past few weeks. It is said that new All-TIme-Highs need validation via retesting previous All-Time-High levels before heading even higher. Now this has happened and the price has held above this level - so far. We are also below another important historical support (now turned into potential resistance). So the break of the down-trend has not yet been confirmed by price action. However, statistics-wise this was a good time in the past to invest in crypto and hold it for new ATHs. 3/3 times such a low RSI and Stochastic RSI level confluence has proven a good time to buy crypto (mainly BTC of course, not the exotic meme coins that are nowhere to be seen today). What do I consider low? Both the weekly RSI and weekly Stoch RSI moving below the lower extreme threshold (their respective colored areas) at the same time. On a closer look, the weekly RSI + Stoch RSI confluence also worked when the RSI value was between 27-37 while the Stoch RSI was at extreme low levels. So I bought some strong crypto now and will see the results in a few months. I never use up all my free capital, neither should you. Alwayss keep some gunpowder dry just in case history invents new statistics. ;-)
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by LaiChee81
CRYPTO week ahead: August 8 – 14Last week in the news Markets were traded sideways during the previous week, and were not much affected by the strong increase in US jobs posted as of the end of the week. Bitcoin ended the week testing $23K level, Ether is holding strongly at $1.7K. The US non-farm payrolls have beaten market expectations for one more time. As announced on Friday, the US added additional 528K jobs in July, more than the market was forecasting, at 258K. Economists and analysts are pointing that such a strong push in US jobs, might indicate further increase of interest rates by the FED. They are also noting that further increase of rates will not have a significant impact on the economy, based on current jobs data. The Bank of England increased its interest rates by an additional 50 basis points. It was its biggest rate hike for the last 27 years, increasing the cost of borrowing to 1.75%. As it has been noted, the BoE is expecting inflation to peak at 13.3% in October. As per BoE forecasts, the inflation would return to the targeted 2% level in 2025. In the meantime, England central bankers are expecting a recession in the country for the end of this and through the next year. A research conducted by Deloitte revealed that merchants in the US are welcoming cryptos and stablecoins, as nearly 75% of small businesses are planning to incorporate it into business within the next 24 months. The same study shows that 85% of inquired businesses are expecting that their suppliers will also accept stablecoins, while this might happen within the next 5 years, according to the study. One of the not-so-welcomed news for all MicroStrategy followers during the previous week was that its CEO Michael Saylor stepped down as a CEO of the company. As per news reports, he is currently short a billion USD, after his BTC bet did not go very well during this year’s rally on the financial markets. He continues to work in the company as Executive Chairman. The European Central Bank published a study on digital euro, where it has been pointed to the need for a cap on individual holdings of these coins, as there is significant risk of funds outflow from banks. There has been mentioned a maximum amount of 3.000 euro that each individual could hold. Crypto market cap Previous week was a relatively flat one on financial markets, as investors are still weighing whether the US is heading toward recession or maybe not. The latest published data on the US jobs market shows that the economy continues to grow, adding additional 528K jobs in July. In this sense, flat trading might continue in the future, until a sign of the state of the economy is clearly evident. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization slightly decreased by $22B or 2%. In terms of the market, these are relatively flat moves compared to the week before. At the same time, daily trading volumes decreased, moving around $110B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained relatively flat at level of $1.107B, which is a drop of 51%. Two weeks ago there was a stronger push of the coins to the upside; still, the previous week brought some relaxation in terms of the price moves for the major coins. Bitcoin was leading the crypto market cap drop, by decreasing its cap by $24B or 5%. Ether remained relatively flat, without significant change from a week before. Binance Coin had another good week, in which it`s market cap surged by additional 8%, or $3.7B. It was also a good week for Filecoin, who managed to increase its market cap by 30%, at the same time increasing its coins in circulation by 3.5%. Few altcoins lost some of their strength during the previous week, like Solana, with a drop in value by 7%, followed by EOS and Polygon, with a decrease of 3%. In terms of changes in coins in circulation, Polygon had an increase of almost 12% on a weekly basis, while Tether continued with recovery, adding 0.6% more coins during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market developments during the previous week, crypto futures were traded lower. BTC futures were traded down by more than 5% across all futures time intervals. Maturities as of the end of this year were traded modestly below $23K on Friday. ETH short term futures were down by some 4% compared to the week before. Higher drop was with maturities in December this and next year, dropping by 8% and 9% respectfully. December this year was traded slightly below $1.6K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Matic LONG on Polygon, event August 4th or 5thMatic had a low of 73 cents one night ago, to the low level of 73 cents. It was at this time that I started researching other traders and going into their defy wallets to see what trades they made. I saw someone pick up $638,000 worth of Matic at .77 cents.. I saw another wallet where someone invested $183,000 into MATIC around .78.cents. I never made an entry into medic and now it's up to 81 cents and I'm kicking myself. I still think that this will go to a $1.15 or more. They're having an event on August 4th or 5th. I believe this will push the price up. I'm chatted on the public chat on trading view and when I said things about matic and that people were getting it at around 76 cents, some people said it was a steal at that price. So I really wish I got in and I still want to get in. I was waiting for the FED to release their basis point numbers. It looks like we've reached the support and now we are going for resistance. In the past days I've been monitoring the volume of Matic as well as the total crypto market and the usdt dominate chart.. Usdt dominance was at such a high of 7.04% two nights ago and I saw Matic drop to 73 cents. Lot of whales got in at 37 cents a few weeks ago and they're making big money right now. This has potential to go up a lot more and I still will make my entry anywhere from 73 cents if it ever goes down to around 82 cents. I feel that Matic is stable and doesn't drop much when you USDT Dominants happens.
Long
by Henrywaters
CRYPTO week ahead: July 25 – 31Last week in the news Economic indicators in the U.S. are still not providing a clear picture to investors whether the economy might slip into recession in the coming period. US equities finished the week in red, while EU stocks moved to green territory after the ECB raised interest rates for the first time after 11 years. Crypto market gained during the previous week, with Bitcoin testing $23K resistance, while Ether rose for additional 14% as a market reaction to the forthcoming “Merge” fork. Long awaited interest rate hike by the ECB finally occurred. At ECB`s regular meeting held on Thursday, the ECB officials agreed to raise reference interest rates by 50bps, for the first time after 11 years. It was above market expectations, where consensus was standing at 25bps. In case that prices continue to rise within the EU area, there is possibility for another rate hike in September this year. Another interesting point from ECB`s meeting is the so-called “anti-fragmentation” tool, whose aim would be to support EU member states with already high levels of debt. As it has been noted, the ECB continues to target medium turn inflation rate at 2%. Some economists and analysts are not welcoming such ECB`s move, as they think that rising interest rates in a stagflation economy will not assist the economy which is already on the edge of recession. During the previous week surprising news hit the crypto community, when it has been made official that Tesla has sold 75% of the company's BTC holdings. This lights a shadow on all tweets made by Tesla`s owner Elon Musk, who was persuading his followers that Tesla will not sell any of BTC holdings. The company did not post the sale price, but by some estimates of analysts involved in a matter, approximation is at $460 million in loss for the company after the sale. Elon Musk commented that Tesla is still open for purchases of BTC in the future. As per news reports, another collateral damage of collapsed crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital is firm Blockchain.com. As it has been reported, this company will decrease headcount by 150 employees, which is around 25% of the firm's total staff. Majority of employees will be laid off in Argentina, and less in the U.S. and U.K. offices. Coinbase initiated a petition, calling the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a more effective regulatory framework around crypto businesses. Company's Chief Policy Officer, Faryar Shirzad criticised SEC`s view to make equitation between securities and crypto assets, as there is no clear guidance which coins should be placed at securities threshold. As he thinks, this might significantly impact future innovation in the field of crypto assets. Crypto market cap It was a relatively good week on the crypto market, during which, some of the previous losses have been erased. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 6% during the week, reaching $997 billion, and increasing expectations that $1 trillion might easily be the next target of the crypto market. Daily trading volumes were further decreased and were moving between levels of $98B down to $68B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year has been modestly improved to the level of $1.184B, which is a drop of 54%. Although it was a good week for the crypto market, still not all coins gained during the week. Market cap increase during the week was led by the major coins, BTC and ETH. This time, Ether outperformed BTC, gaining $23B or 14%, versus BTC`s $20B and 5% increase on a weekly basis. ETH is currently supported by the forthcoming “Merge” fork, which is also the reason for increase of the market cap of Ethereum Classic by incredible 63% on a weekly basis, adding additional $1.4B to coins market value. In relative terms, Bitcoin Gold had a good week with increase in value of 44%. Other altcoins had a solid performance, however, few of them ended the week in a negative territory, like Uniswap, with drop in market cap of 7%, or Zcash which decreased its cap by 6%. BNB remained relatively flat in value, but its coins in circulation decreased by 1.2%. On the other hand, Filecoin continues to increase circulating coins, last week by 2.2%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market is back on the road, after a period of poor performance influenced by the general bearish sentiment on financial markets. Closing prices of the futures on Friday were modestly higher from spot prices. In this way, BTC July futures were up by 8%, December this year was closed above $23K, while futures maturing as of the end of the next year were up by 12%, holding above $25K. On the other hand, ETH futures had a strong push to the upside, where July futures were up by almost 22%, reaching the price of $1.500. Futures with longer maturities ended the week higher by some 30% from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year reached prices close to $1.6K, while maturities in December next year are closed above this level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKET CAP BTC MARKET CAP ANALYSIS: I introduce with this new type of analysis on market capitalization an important concept to study about the behavior of the blockchain as part of the future economy. Soon we will compare the capitalization of Bitcoin with that of the Crypto market in general. Introducing a new indicator through the RSI and the MACD, new concepts such as oscillation energy and market pressure, directly related through mathematical tools to price and volume action. -------------------------------------------------------- Introduzco con este nuevo tipo de análisis sobre la capitalización de mercado un concepto importante a estudiar sobre el comportamiento de la blockchain como parte de la economía futura. Proximamente compararemos la capitalización de Bitcoin con la del mercado Crypto en general. Introduciendo un nuevo indicador mediante el RSI y el MACD nuevos conceptos como energía de oscilación y presión de mercado, relacionadas directamente mediante herramientas matemáticas a la acción del precio y volumen.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by AVNGL01
CRYPTO week ahead: July 11 – 17Last week in the news Last week was a small relief from a bearish trend since the beginning of this year. However, risks from the macro environment are still in play, in which sense, it is too early for celebration. Bitcoin managed to sustain a support line at $20K, reaching its highest weekly level at $22.5K. Ether is back at $1.2K. Positive economic news for the US market, released during the previous week, supported USD. Nonfarm payrolls were increased by 372K added jobs in June, beating market expectations at 250K. The unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%. Figures show that despite increasing inflation, the US job market remained strong. Regardless of it, some FED officials are still calling for another rate hike in July of additional 50 to 75bps. The European regulatory bodies have accomplished a deal for establishment of the first regulatory framework for crypto currencies. This came out of the need to halt money laundering through crypto coins. The new law is called Markets in Crypto Assets, commonly known as MiCA. The new regulation requires issuers of stablecoins to sustain reserves which will be able to support higher redemptions for coins. Transactions with stablecoins have a limit of Eur 200 million per day. These companies will also be monitored for ESG risk. The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a press release looking for international engagement on digital assets in a quest for its responsible development, including also central bank digital currencies. Treasury is set to engage with world leading supranational institutions to address the risks originating from these assets and ensure that their implementation in the system is conducted by following high standards. Binance set live its program of zero trading fee policy on Friday. On that day the exchanger faced a significant increase in trading volumes. As noted from the company, a trading volume of 320K coins per day is the highest volume since March 2020. Analysts involved in the matter are commenting that this is a way for Binance to fight decreasing volumes on the crypto market as a consequence of the significant drop in price of these assets. Crypto exchanger Bit2Me, based in Spain, is planning to increase the number of staff by 250 within a period of one year. This news comes after plans to increase its business through even three acquisitions of a fintech company, software developer and the crypto exchange in Latin America. Crypto market cap Previous week was sort of a relief on financial markets, after a pessimistic first half of the year. Short optimism is coming from the latest US economic results which show that despite high inflation and increase of reference interest rates, the economy stayed resilient and added an additional 372K of new jobs in June. Investors are looking at it as a potential for the FED to slow down with further monetary tightening, while on the other side, few FED officials commented last week that they are still supporting an additional 50 to 75bps further increase in interest rates at the FOMC July meeting. This points to the conclusion that market recovery might be on hold for some time in the future. Total crypto market capitalization has modestly increased during the previous week, to the level of $930B, which is an increase of 10% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were significantly decreased from the week before, moving between $106B down to $67B. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at $1.252B, which is a drop of 57%. During the previous week almost all coins gained in value. Increase of total market capitalization in nominal terms was led by major coins: BTC, ETH, BNB and XRP. Bitcoin added $43B to its market cap, increasing it by 11%. BTC was followed by Ether, with an additional $19B in cap or 15% on a weekly basis. Binance Coin also had a good week, as it managed to add $4B to its total value, increasing it by 12% w/w. XRP was up by 9%, adding $1B in value. In relative terms Uniswap had a very good week, as the coin increased its value by 27%, and is followed by Polygon, with a surge in value of 24% on a weekly basis. Tether continues to decrease coins in circulation, with last week's drop of 0.5%. Crypto futures market During the previous week there had been some positive developments also on the BTC and ETH futures market. For the last few weeks, long term maturities were almost flat, moving within relatively low range. Increased market optimism pushed futures prices to the higher ground as of the weekend. BTC futures with shorter maturities were up by some 12%, while futures ending in 2022 were up by 10%, ending the week at level of $21.5K. ETH futures had some major developments as long term futures were significantly up by some 20%, holding above $1.2K. Futures with shorter maturities were traded in line with the spot market, increasing the price by more than 16%. Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: June 27 – July 03Last week in the news Markets were closed higher on Friday, after a period of strong negative sentiment caused by FED`s moves and rhetoric around surging inflation. The US equity market was up by some 3% on Friday. Bitcoin moved above the $20K support line, while Ether manages to hold above $1K. Regardless of Friday`s modest rebound on financial markets, the optimism among market professionals is still not present. University of Michigan consumer sentiment showed a historically lowest level of 50 in June. Although this indicates a potential slowdown in the US inflation, still it also raises concerns of potential recession in the world`s largest economy. In this way currently major concern on markets is related to a question if the market has reached its bottom line with its latest moves to the downside, or is it still to come in the future period? The first experiment of Bitcoin adoption on the state level, a case of El Salvador, is currently fading away, as per CNBC`s article. Although the growth of Bitcoin seemed at first a good bet that could increase the wealth of the country, still, a 70% drop in Bitcoin price emerged an urgent need for cash and jeopardized El Salvador`s ability to pay its debt coming due. News is reporting that Goldman Sachs is leading a group of potential buyers of a company Celsius, a crypto lender, which has entered into huge problems lately. It is mentioned that this investment bank is looking to raise $2 billion in order to buy Celsius`s distressed assets at significant discounts. Netherland is introducing additional KYC regulation for customers using crypto exchangers. As it has been announced by Coinbase, in case that client is withdrawing cryptos from the exchange, additional details need to be provided, including full name and address and the purpose of the transfer. During the latest drop in crypto prices, many crypto companies are decreasing the number of employees in order to cut costs, however, Binance is one of rare firms which is actually hiring during these difficult times. Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, announced that Binance is expanding its business to a new platform called Binance Institutional, which will be used only by VIP and institutional investors. Crypto market cap Inflation is not anymore the main topic on the markets, but now it is a potential recession. Many analysts are in agreement that there is objective fear from potential drop in economic activity, which could trigger another sell-off of equities due to drop in earnings. Crypto market is part of the mainstream, in which sense; it would certainly be affected in a negative manner in case of an actual recession in developed economies. During the previous week there has been a modest rebound on the crypto market. Total market capitalization has been increased by 16%, to the level of $920 billion. Increase was led by major coins, however, altcoins significantly participated. Daily trading volumes have slightly decreased from the week before, moving around $170B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the crypto market from the beginning of this year currently stands at $1.260B, which is a decrease of 58%. Modest rebound of the crypto market during the previous week was led by BTC and ETH. BTC gained additional $53B, which is an increase in the cap of 15% on a weekly basis. ETH`s market cap was up by $30B or 26%. Altcoins were led by BNB and XRP, where BNB managed to recover $6B in market cap, increasing its value by 21%, while XRP`s cap was increased by $3B or 20%. Highest gainer of the week in relative terms was Polygon, which managed to increase its market cap by 67%. Tether continues to follow bearish moves, decreasing its coins in circulation by additional 2% compared to a week before. Crypto futures market Rebound of the crypto market was evident in crypto futures. Bitcoin futures with shorter maturity were up by some 3%. Maturities as of the end of this year remained relatively flat compared with the week before, indicating that the market is still unsure about the BTC`s future direction. Maturities as of the end of next year were down by 4%. ETH futures with shorter maturities were up by 13%. Major move for ETH futures was for maturities as of the end of this year, which were up by 11%, however, December 2023 remained flat at $1.2K. Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
COIN- Fundamental and technical analysis****NOT THE INVESTMENT ADVICE**** I'm neutral in my assessment. Please do your own due diligence. In this analysis, I leave out external and macro factors such as crypto adoption and regulatory concern. Rather, I want to focus on things Coinbase can control. Main points- To start off, I believe Coinbase has the bright future and its biggest risk is the execution risk. However, in order for it to succeed, few conditions need to be fulfilled. ***The big bets need to take off (NFT market place, potential derivative offerings & Dapp marketplace and Coinbase wallet). When they do, the subscription and service revenue would go up and the decoupling may happen (crypto market price crash will have less effect on the COIN price) or at the very least Coinbase will be less dependent on the trading revenue, which currently accounts for 87% of the total revenue). ***NFT marketplace must take off next year- Both FTX and Binance have tried, but they failed to win the significant market share from OpenSea. What other strategies does Coinbase have to win market shares from OpenSea other than enhanced social features and trading fee waiver when the overall pie isn’t growing? (NFT trading volume and floor price are trending lower) ***Coinbase wallet must acquire more market share- How can Coinbase monetize the wallet when the market-leader MetaMask is provided for free? The success of Coinbase wallet is essential so Coinbase doesn’t become just another fiat on-ramp provider. It’s also instrumental to Coinbase’s overarching strategy of becoming all-encompassing platform where users can access all crypto-related activities. ***How to extract more revenue from institutional investors? Any strategies to increase the custodial fee and commerce fee? The upside- Cardano staking- Most of the subscription and service revenue come from the blockchain reward and the blockchain reward itself is consisted of mostly staking revenue. Cardano staking may further boost the blockchain reward revenue when it’s already the second biggest revenue source for Coinbase. Coinbase is focusing on its long-term vision- DeFi, Protocols+Web Infra and NFT/Mertaverse account for 60% of Coinbase’s ventu res portfolio. This is important as most major use cases in crypto ecosystem come from DeFi, NFT and DAO space. Still the most trusted brand with advanced and industry-leading security features. It has the security infrastructure and regulatory compliance advantage against international competitors such as FTX and Binance. While against domestic competitors such as Gemini and Kraken, it has the crypto offering advantage. Strong balance sheet enables Coinbase to acquire competitors during the crypto winter. Most of its long-term debts are convertible notes with the earliest maturity date in 2026. Still the leader of regulated U.S exchanges based on the spot volume, around 46% in 2021. Coinbase has recently become the first-ever crypto firm to join the Fortune 500 list of the largest U.S. firms by revenue. One caveat is that there are no strong barrier and switching cost that would prevent Coinbase customers from going to another exchange. More sustainable moat can be achieved if Coinbase can create a platform that provides all-access to crypto activities, realizing its long-term vision of becoming the Amazon of crypto services. Problem diagnosis- Verified user, trading volume, MTU and ATRPU are the most important metrics to watch out for in addition to other common financial metrics. The persistent theme is that the the declining trade volume and MTU (Monthly transacting users) are hurting Coinbase. Trading revenue accounts for 87% of overall revenue, the rest in subscription and service revenue, mostly in blockchain reward from staking. Retail only accounts for 23% of trading volume, but it accounts for 95% of trading revenue- Retail actually pays 14x the fee compared to institutional. Not much revenue is generated from institutional clients even though they dominate the trading volume because they receive deep discount for executing large trade, bringing in the flow, proving liquidity and acting as market makers. As soon as there’s some regulatory clarity, trading fee erosion can happen when bigger financial institutions and banks decide to enter the space, leading to the race to the bottom effect. Decline in retail trading volume while Institutional trading volume actually went up during the same time- Altcoins now account for fully 55% of transaction volumes and they are likely contributing to the rapid decline of retail transaction volume. Retails trade a lot of altcoins during the bull market and they stop trading altcoins in bearish market or when the volatility is low. Institutionals, on the other hands, trade mostly in Bitcoin and Ethereum and their trading volume is less affected by the market downturn. One could argue that this is the downside of adding more risky assets on the platform as it adds more volatility during the bear market, though these same assets flourish and bring in a lot of revenue during the bull market. Therefore, it’s a double edged sword. Increase in verified users and MTU may not translate to increase in ATRPU- Increasingly, users are engaging in more non-trading activities such as yield-generating staking which generates far less revenue than high-fee trading activities. This is not necessarily a bad thing as Coinbase has always been pushing for a more diversified revenue stream.
 In summary, Coinbase will likely continue to have more verified users, but even if those verified users become MTU, it may still experience the decline in revenue and ATRPU because of the decline in retail trading volume, trading activity and trading fee unless Coinbase can somehow find ways to extract more revenues from institutional clients and increase the percentage of the subscription and service revenue in total revenue. The downside- Weakening guidance as the company anticipated further decline in trading volume and MTU in 2022 Horizontal analysis revealed that Equity-Based Compensation (EBC) and SG&A ballooned while revenue suffered this quarter, leading to the weakening operating leverage. This concern is somewhat addressed during the recent 18% layoff as Coinbase aims to keep the EBITDA loss around 500 mil in the face of decline ATRPU, NOPAT and FCF. Impairment cost rule means Coinbase could suffer more non-cash loss on its crypto asset investment in the near future if the market selloff triggered by the Terra/Luna debacle and over-leverage unwind continues. Despite the strong balance sheet, customer custodial funds account for nearly 50% of the total asset, making Coinbase susceptible to the potential bank run risk. Coinbase recently filed shelf registration statement with the SEC. Just a minor concern as It has no intention to issue any new stocks anytime soon. Structural and ecosystem risk- Coinbase has strong interdependent and venture capital relationship with many crypto firms it invests and supports in its venture portfolio. Any insolvency and liquidity issues these firms experience during the prolonged bear crypto market could potentially have the negative impact on Coinbase’s operation. In summary, Coinbase has never been hit by bad macro environment and crypto downturn at the same time. In order for it to navigate through the current bear crypto market, Coinbase needs to apply the combination of financial prudence and execution nimbleness while making sure the development of high-priority product and service can continue unaffected.
NASDAQ:COIN
by Libratus
1