BITCOIN A 'game' of angles...This isn't the first time we post this chart on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the relevance that its Cyclical Angles have but it is an added step with its RSI and phases.
We are on the 1W time-frame where as you can see every Cycle has been so far approximately 10 degrees (°) less than the previous one from top to bottom. The 1st Cycle (2012 - 2013) was 54°, the 2nd (2015 - 2017) was 42° and the 3rd (2019 - 2021) was 30°. Based on this progressive sequence, we can expect the current one to top at around 20° from the bottom.
Even though the price is on a declining angle rate, the 1W RSI is remarkably stable. As you can see, every Bull Cycle is around 25°, so there is no reason to expect the current one to diverge from this. This way when the RSI tops, we will now when to sell and sit back with the profits until the next Bear Cycle bottom.
On top of all the above, we see that according to the Bull Cycle phases classification, Bitcoin is still within its Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle), so we haven't yet seen its most aggressive part, the Take-off Phase (orange).
But what do you think? Are we about to see that parabolic rally of the Take-off Phase and if so, is this 'Angle' analysis accurate at predicting when to take profit? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
Bearish drop?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could fall to the pullback support.
Pivot: 59,322.72
1st Support: 54,314.81
1st Resistance: 61,694.13
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
STXUSD Bottomed is in. Expect $10.00 by early 2025.Stacks (STXUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the December 30 2022 Low and is currently on the 2nd Bearish Leg of this pattern. Being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it is approaching the Channel's bottom.
The previous Bearish Leg formed the Higher Low sideways, so it is possible to replicate this structure and confirmed the new Bullish Leg after it broke above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Note that STX priced its Higher Low on the first decline after the formation of a 1D Death Cross and we are currently past that on the new Bearish Leg.
As a result, with the 1D MACD also printing the same bottom sequence as the previous Leg, we turn bullish again, targeting 10.00, which just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (similar to the previous Bullish Leg) exactly at the top of the Channel Up.
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Could ETH/USD bounce from here?Price is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
pivot: 3,065.70
1st Support: 2,877.70
1st Resistance: 3,273.35
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN The 4 year Cycle of June - September..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) revisited last week more than 4-month lows and the market is again in anxiety. Righfully so but a quick look on the 4-year Cycles and what BTC has down throughout the June - September period, puts every thing again back into context.
As you can see those Jun - Sep periods of 2020, 2016 and 2012 have mostly been bullish with one correction under their belt on all three of them. More specifically, July has initiated rallies on all occasions but only 2016 saw a stronger correction and Lower Low after it.
On the current Jun - Sep period (2024), we've already made a Lower Low relative to May 01, so it is less likely to see a new one but of course it is possible. In any event, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) should technically support. As a result, the current levels for Bitcoin seem cyclically to be low risk buy entries especially on a DCA approach.
But what do you think? Will BTC make another Lower Low and replicate 2016? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETC/USD Main trend. Fractal cyclic structureLogarithm. Time frame 1 week. The main trend.
Duplicated on the exchange OKX, a little added to understand the logic and accuracy, as on the exchange poloniex, there is no liquidity. If something happens to have an idea on a more liquid exchange. As this cryptocurrency is interesting.
Major trend. Channel. Publication 01 2023
Linear Now in Moment.
Local now at the moment.
Locally. Let me remind you that from the main zone of the cryptocurrency set (horizontal channel) the average price is now exactly +84%. Compared to other assets, during the transition from the accumulation phase to the participation phase (Dow), the price did not increase very much compared to other cryptocurrencies. That is, a conditionally lagging asset.
A triangle is forming . In a localized rising set trend. From this zone, about 40-50% left to the rounded bottom resistance zone (final accumulation phase).
Then it will be business as usual, on stocks or liquid cryptocurrencies. Breakout of resistance, perhaps not immediately, but that's not the point. After breakout, consolidation, then re test and news negative/positive. Confirmation, and the beginning of strong, conditionally irrevocable impulsive movements into the zone of “news perspective of this blockchain”.
This is when ETH will be above or near $10,000. This will be its first consolidation — a partial reset before being pulled into the final reset (distribution) price zone. In this consolidation, not up to the maximum prices, the progenitor of expensive ether, that is, ETC, as before, will surprise everyone with an aggressive news background. With a high degree of probability, all speculative games, as in the last cycle during pumping, will be “slightly wavy”. Don't forget to sell and don't be greedy...
For those who are not traders at all. So which of the hamsters has iron balls, throw in a couple of hundred dollars and forget it, conditional retention without trading for 9, 13 and 19 months. Sold in 3 parts (optional). But, if you don't sell, you will get scared between these market pumping “time zones” and sell everything during the “fear”. If there is profit in advance, then it “warms the soul” and the feeling of lost profits will not play a cruel joke.
Money management. Leave a third of the invested money in dollars, for additional purchases, in case there is a spill in the market (only 1 significant, sharp, unexpected). Ignore everything else, there will be enough coins to earn money. If the dollars are not spent and the price flies away, do not buy crypto candy wrappers, but buy a gift for your loved ones.
I am sure that many hamsters , when a trend allows absolutely everyone to make money, will imagine that they are real traders and decide to increase the number of coins. I am 99.9% sure that on futures (your psychology is known in advance) if you take inadequate risks, you will lose all coins up to half the maximum price.
⚠️ Adequately evaluate your skills and behavior . Therefore, for some people who are relatively poor but want to become rich, very quickly, it is better not to trade or even be interested in the market until the market is in the distribution cycle, that is, the highs (late 2024 and 2025). Otherwise, each local peak (as always) in a growing trend will be perceived as the end, and when the end comes, on the contrary, as not yet a maximum.
BITCOIN vs VIX. This is why it will rally!We usually consult the Volatility Index (VIX) when attempting to project movements on stock indices. But as recent price actions reveals, it can work equally well on predicting the trend on Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Take BTC's Channel Up for example on the 1W time-frame. VIX (black trend-line) has started a consolidation phase (green ellipse) following a strong decline in mid-April to mid-May. Since the November 2022 market bottom, VIX posts this consolidation pattern before it typically rallies.
That is technically not just some rally but the Bullish Leg of this long-term Channel Up formation. As a result, with VIX consolidating, it could only be a matter of time before Bitcoin starts the new rally to new All Time Highs.
What do you think? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this the pattern that will save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing yet another brutal sell-off today that is bringing it even closer to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As mentioned on previous analyses, the 1W MA50 is BTC's ultimate Support trend-line throughout a Bull Cycle and you can clearly see that on the right chart.
During all its Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has supported the Parabolic Rally, until it decisively broke and confirmed the new Bear Cycle. It is therefore a standard go-to signal for long-term investors.
On the 1D time-frame (chart on the left), there is an underlying Channel Up that supported the last major medium-term pull-back on September 11 and October 11 2023. We are only a few clicks from testing this Channel's bottom, which is still around $5000 above where the 1W MA50 is right now.
As mentioned previously, chances are that BTC turns sideways and approaches the 1W MA50 while it consolidates sideways and forms a bottom. Notice how the Megaphone pattern that started on the March 14 2024 High, would be ideal for materializing this scenario. Even a marginal break of the 1W MA50 doesn't constitute a long-term bearish reversal, as long as the 1W candle still closes above it (like on June 21 2021).
So while we do have our natural Cyclical Support level, do you also think that this Channel Up will save the day for BTC and stop further bleeding and the possibility of an early Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Potential bullish rise?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has just bounced off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 56,784.43
1st Support: 55,042.77
1st Resistance: 59,832.32
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
PEPEUSD Will start forming a bottom. Be ready to buy.Pepe (PEPEUSD) is showing signs of proper structured price action as the prevailing pattern emerges as a Channel Up. Having broken today below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since February 24 2024, we anticipate that the new bottom (Higher Low) of the Channel Up will start getting formed.
Both Bearish Legs of the pattern where through Channel Down patterns (dotted) and the Bullish Legs that followed (dashed), were Channel Up patterns. A break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again, should confirm the start of the new Bullish Leg.
The 1D RSI though is already giving an early signal and on the next rebound, if we see successive 1D candles trading sideways, we will have an early buy opportunity. The ultimate Support level is of course the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The previous Higher High was formed just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the Low. As a result, our Target is now 0.00002500 (just below Fib 2.0).
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HAPPY JULY 4th with BITCOIN hitting the 1D MA200 after 9 months!Happy July 4th everyone! A little break from the traditional stock markets but not for crypto. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in particular, just hit and broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost 9 months (October 16 2023)!
Naturally this is a very strong long-term Support level and it is even more obvious on this 1D chart, where BTC's current consolidation is similar to the one from mid- April 2023 to mid-July 2023 (blue Rectangle).
With the long-term pattern being a Fibonacci Channel Up and the 1D MACD forming a sequence similar to the bottom formation that started on August 27 2023, Bitcoin is most likely entering the long-term Support Zone.
The ultimate Support level is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but we expect to come close to that not straight away vertically but in the next month while the price might trade sideways in similar fashion to September 2023.
In any case, since the November 2022 market bottom, this kind of distance from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has been the most optimal buy entry and including the current one, we've only had 4 such opportunities.
But what do you think? Is this the right opportunity to buy heavily again on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish rise?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the overlap resistance which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 59,227.02
1st Support: 58,400.61
1st Resistance: 61,951.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CFXUSD Buy after it breaks above the 1D MA100.It's been too long since we last analyzed Conflux (CFXUSD) and on that analysis (January 26, see chart below) we got a clear bullish break-out signal that easily hit our 0.4000 Target:
The price has since entered a brutal sell-off below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the pattern that stands out the most is a Channel Up. The decline hasn't yet reached the bottom of that pattern, but it is getting close. Last time it completed approximately a -80% decline.
The signal to buy was given when the 1D RSI made a Triple Bottom below the 30.00 oversold barrier and was confirmed when the price broke above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). We are waiting for that signal to buy and target 0.55000 (just below the Resistance and previous Higher High of the Channel Up).
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BITCOIN History rhymes and calls for as high as $300k!This is a post Halving update to the 'Fibonacci Channel blueprint' analysis we've made almost a year ago. The price action has been even more aggressive than what we expected so relevant adjustments had to be made.
On this chart, we yet again rely on the long-term time-frames of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for a more meaningful illustration of its historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price has completed 4 months of consolidation following the early March All Time High (ATH), always above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This consolidation is consistent with all previous post-Halving price actions as BTC always traded sideways and accumulated in the weeks after the Halving, in preparation for the Parabolic Rally, the Cycle's most aggressive phase.
The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
At the same time, another condition that it 'needs' to fulfil is being just below the 0.0 Fib of the Blue Channel, similar to what happened in December 2017 (just below Fib 0.0 of the orange Channel).
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib is currently a little under $300000, and as we mentioned after the consolidation of each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $300k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
As you can see, the orange (2013) and black (2020 - 2021) lines are more aggressive than the purple (2016 - 2017) but the latter is the one that, as we've posted numerous times, the current Cycle has the most similarities with. If Bitcoin follows the purple price action within the black Fibonacci Channel, then it should reach $100k by December 2024 and $300k by August 2025. If instead it transitions to the more aggressive Cycle models, then it could reach those levels much earlier.
But what do you think? Is $300k realistic within the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Could price bounce from here?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce from the level to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,355.63
1st Support: 3,272.65
1st Resistance: 3,468.05
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BEAMUSD Bullish Cross aiming for at least 0.2200 short-term.BEAMUSD has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the March 10 High and today is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle, following a 1D MACD Bullish Cross. That took place on the 0.015100 Support (almost January 23 Low), which makes the buy signal even stronger.
Each Bullish Leg of the Channel Down has been at least +46.88%, so we are targeting 0.02200 for our next Lower High.
If BEAM manages to close a 1D candle above the Channel Down, then we expect an aggressive bullish break-out to complete at least a +186.93% rise, similar to the one that led to the March 10 High.
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Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 62,155.46
1st Support: 61,130.39
1st Resistance: 63,578.50
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AVAXUSD Bottom formation in process. Target $105.007 months ago we published the following analysis (December 14 2023, see chart below), expecting Avalanche (AVAXUSD), to correct back to the 1.0 Fibonacci level after a potential $55.00 hit:
As you can see the price action didn't fail to deliver our projection, in fact it followed very tightly the February - July 2021 pre-rally pattern of the previous Bull Cycle. Right now it has found Support on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), while the 1W RSI is on the exact Support level it was on the June 21 2021 bottom.
Even though a marginal decline is possible to satisfy the past condition of slightly breaking below the 0.5 Fib, the current levels are good enough to buy again for the long-term.
As in November 2021, our Target is again the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is currently just above the $105.00 Resistance.
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BITCOIN Will people regret not buying at this stage?Around this time last year (see chart below), we analyzed yet again the similarities of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle with the one in 2014 - 2017. In fact we were among the fist channels in late 2022 to bring that up as a strong possibility and as you can see Bitcoin didn't fail to deliver:
We have entered however a stage where, as the title says, people could regret if they haven't bought already as it might be the last opportunity to do so on such low prices. The time-frame on both charts is 3D and as you can see, the MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the most optimal buy entry throughout the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle.
If the similarities continue to unfold between the two Cycles, then last week's breach of the MA50, should be the best buying opportunity at this stage. As you can see, we are proportionally at the end of the blue elliptical pattern which in early 2017 consolidated around and mostly below the former All Time High (ATH) level and then started the Parabolic Rally.
Do you think the current MA50 touch has marked the start of this rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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