Crude OilCrude have been in strong uptrend since last year, but for now short term momentum indicators suggesting a small retracement, but however the medium term trend is still strong, so i am expecting a test of 72.95 over the coming days or so. I would be building a long position around 65.74, with a tight stop below 65.03, targeting 72.95.
Crudeoilwti
Crude Oil Completed Wave 31. Crude Oil achieved the Wave 3 fibo target; 261.8% of wave 1. (refer to white fibo levels)
2. Since Wave 2 retraced 78.6% of Wave 1 (refer to turquoise fibo level on the left), according to Elliott's alternate rules between Wave 2 and Wave 4, I am expecting Wave 4 to retrace to 50% or 61.8% (refer to yellow fibo levels on the right). Nevertheless, it is still possible for wave 4 to retrace only to 23.6% or 38.2%.
3. But, Wave 3 had extended. So I don't think Wave 4 will retrace only to 23.6% or 38.2%. Usually, profit taking activity will take charge for a while before price resume for wave 5.
4. However, always check the wave count and look out for bullish divergence signal at tf 1H or 30min when price hit the important yellow fibo levels for a high potential reversal. Sometimes the bulls are impatient to resume the climb.
5. A divergence signal that appears at important SnR level, accompanied by Candle Reversal Signal such as hammer , are great hints for a potential price reversal.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaLooks like the correction is now complete as per this idea >
Possibly in very bullish waves up to 7130.
If you count the move from 6813 to 6882 as wave 1 (wave 1 of 3 of 3) and the little higher high above it as a flat correction then 2.618 for wave 3 (wave 3 of 3 of 3) was hit perfectly and could not be in wave 4 to 0.382 of wave 3 and back into the small channel before up for wave 5 to 7027.
If you zoom out on the chart rest of the waves are plotted, potentially up to 7130. 7130 is also 1.618 of the weeks of sideways action >
The 1st Wave is Completed (Potentially)Wave 4 was quite tricky. There are several alternative wave counts but I prefer this one because it adheres to all Elliott's rule. I hope the price will not break 66.92 as that will be a cut-off signal that Wave 5 of wave C of Wave 4 has started. Correction ABC might bottom at 38.2% (that's around wave 4), 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% areas.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea >
Classic descending triangle breakout occurred and formed the first and second waves up toward 71, looks like a starting wedge has formed for the first impulses of wave 3, should be a buying opportunity around 6850 in my opinion with a strict stop loss below 6835 (start of wedge).
Still holding longs from 6733.
Weekly Wave Count for CL1!We should be in the last leg of wave C of Wave 4.
71.24 can be the first target because that is where Wave A = Wave C (1:1).
It can exceed 71.24 but don't have high hope it will cross 74.95 because that is the end of Wave 1 of the BIG wave C.
Base on Elliott's rule, Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1.
Even there is exception for futures, the overlap shouldn't be too much. Furthermore, the probability for it to overlap on the WEEKLY tf is very minimal.
Pay attention on Daily, 4H and 1H for the impulse wave count to get a more precise target.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaAn update to previous triangle idea >
Looks like the internal waves of E are underway with B of E (purple waves) tagging the sloping triangle trendline later on Friday. I believe we are in C of E now.
All waves made up of 3 way ABC patterns as you would expect for a ABCDE triangle.
I have a short position from 6815 to close at 6715 and then long from there for what could be triple bottom before triangle exit to 71-73
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaAlternative to this idea > www.tradingview.com
Discussing with a friend and fellow Elliot Wave trader we came up with the "Double Three" idea where we had a zig-zag/zig-zag/ABCDE symmetrical triangle as part of a double combo (WXY). If this is the pattern it is either completed or very near completion (possibly around 6780) for E wave of the symmetrical triangle.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaCarrying on from this idea >
Looks like we have seen the second running flat ABC correction that formed a larger B wave. According to reference material a running flat correction is when price is range bound, wave B terminate below the start point of wave A and wave C terminates above the end point of wave A. Looks like that same pattern has formed in crude.
If that is a flat ABC correction then it should form a higher degree B wave, meaning C wave has started.
Interestingly 1.618 of A wave points to 6710 are for the triple bottom and completion of larger descending triangle.
Don't let Trump talk fool you....crude's going higherIf you've followed me over the last little while you'd know that I've been bullish crude oil for the last 6 motnhs and man it's been and exciting ride! Good news is I don't think we're done yet! So there's still time to get in on the party.
My long term view is crude to 90 :D Although that's a ways off, and we might need to see some consolidation/retracement/market confusion before getting there. So what's happened so far? We formed a major support region in the 63.10 area and have recently broken out. I would typically expect us to continue higher, with the next targets at 71.50 and 75.50 respectively. Right now this my general outlook, and I'll be waiting for an entry to form this week expecting higher prices through the week. If it doesn't happen, I'll reevaluate before looking for a new long.
So what do you think? Am I crazy to be so bullish? We've already moved so far...will it keep going? Share with me your charts, ideas, and comments! Love to hear other traders opinions!
Peace, love, and sweet bamboo,
tbp
Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaLook at possible structure for wave 5 as per this chart >
Could have completed wave 1 from 6183 to 6775, then 0.382 correction (a fairly common wave 2 fib level), now in sub wave 1 of 3, with sub wave 2 on the way.
There does appear to be a pennant/triangle forming though which could mean a little more upside to 6910-6950 >