Crudechart
USDWTI Daily. Being 2 steps ahead.Hello everyone. I hope it goes all well for You. I have been working this set up out this evening. Crude Oil seems to be struggling and is not giving us a wild rally eventhough we had two consecutive very bullish stockpile reports. The first one that came out on July the 6th has not endured the bears pressure and session closed much lower than the days high. Have a look Yourself and please share Your view at this idea with us! It may be a little bit too optimistic and too far ahead reaching, but what makes us successfull if not being endlessly positive about our own ideas? As You can see above we have a bullish butterly forming out in the space of the next several weeks. The trend has been respected as well as supply/demand levels along with fibonacci have been accomplished. I hope the idea is well explained. Should You have any questions, advises or even different, more sensible idea? Feel free to message me!
Weekly outlookThis might hold and go higher but could be an excellent opportunity for a short term short. Sell the %50 1st target 43.38, could 2nd target 42.99 and could be a strong reversal.
USOIL pre OPEC meeting movement / possibilities.Here we have possible movement for USOIL in the next week (until the OPEC meeting).
The blue frame showed that the huge liquidation that happened a few days ago stopped right at the 2.0 WL, with a huge impulse returning back in. That gave us a major pivot (new C) for the orange frame. Price has been following both since. It has currently bounced strong off the ML of the blue frame (almost touching the 0.5 of the orange - energy point)
I believe the following will happen:
1. A small but healthy retrace to the major TL(A) in this swing.
2. If the price continues to respect it, major impulse to break the ML of the blue and 0.5 of the orange
3. Continuation in the swing with big impulses up and small healthy retracements, following the TL(A).
4. OPEC meeting time aligns with the convergence of the TL(A), projected TL(B), MLH (1.0) of the orange frame and 0.5 of the blue frame.
5. There, I expect consolidation and two possibilities: 1. Formation of a new pivot in case of massive selling after the news, dropping to several Support points or 2. Huge impulse up on the OPEC news and continuation on the TL(A) making, quite possibly, a new HOY.
6. However, if we don't manage to pass the blue frame ML and orange frame 0.5, and BREAK the strong TL(A), price might be going to the horizontal TL(C), consolidating there, giving more questions than answers towards more movement. I do think, however, this is a much less likely scenario than the continuous upmove into the OPEC meeting.
Entries:
Long entry @48.60 to 48.75 / Trgt1: 51.25 Trgt2: 53.00+ (after OPEC for people who want to risk it) / SL: Below the TL(A), wherever that is depending on the time of your entry.
I'll be updating maps with each day, following this closely.
Good luck with your trading, stay frosty.
Nick
WTI Crude Oil 4hr upper break outWTI Crude Oil shows a breakout of the upper range on the 4 hour time frame. This can lead to a wave towards 50.30 before retracing a bit back down again. A few days ago I also published an idea on WTI Crude Oil at the Daily time frame which shows 52.50 as longer term target. Short term the 4 hour time frame is now atleast supporting a break of 50 and I am not suprised if it will break already today.
Buy at current market price, take profit 50.20, Stop loss 48.80
Long term view on Crude OilHere is a simple look at my long term view on oil, which lines up relatively well with my expectation for the S&P. As you can see, on the weekly chart, it had appears that we had broken out, but we kept retesting that breakout level as support without getting any really solid bounce. Finally, we broke down into the previous trading channel again and went straight for the bottom of that channel. My shorter term view is that we may drop some early this week (4/3/2017) but ultimately we retest the top of that channel once more, now as resistance again, which is around the $53 level. Following this touch, oil should head back down to the bottom of the channel but this time with a clear and heavy break, sending oil quickly to $45. We will likely move slowly down/sideways until mid/late October of 2017 when I expect the speed of the drop to pick up significantly, ultimately breaking down below the previous low and making a new 16 year low below $25, maybe as low as the $22's. This drop is also reasonable from a fundemental perspective given the continued oversupply of oil to the market and the U.S. attempting to gain a bigger share of the oil market with 2017 production expected to increase. The most resent rig count of 662 has basically doubled from a year ago when at the end of April 2016 the rig count was just 332. That coupled with lesser regulations under the Trump administration. In addition, another OPEC cut decision is expected to come as early as July of 2017 but if that falls through, it could be yet another catalyst for lower oil. We are looking for this next drop to be slightly lower than the previous low. After this is accomplished, I expect a new uptrend in oil to begin, leading oil to the mid $70's again.
crude oil optimal price arrangementsSoon we have two possible action on crude oil on this week arroung the price of 55,15:
1) More possibly "a shooting star" appears getting bearish action toward 46,00 which would be a bottom or reversal price for bulls again. Bulls on crude oil during the summer is favorable for OPEC countries.
2)Less possibly crude oil price stays above 55,15 in daily candles and bullish action continues. i think this is less possible because any price above 55,00 during spring-summer time is not sustainable.
Shorting until Oil Inventory Data. I'm looking to go short this morning, considering there may be more profit taking, and a risk off attitude before today's oil inventory data. Using the downward trend line as my stop, if we hold below, will look to target $50.
If we break above the downward resistance trend line (shown on chart), I'll reconsider for a long trade opportunity
Crude Oil- B2C- An Exciting Experience 43$ to 52$ & What Next?Crude Oil- B2C- An Exciting Experience 43$ to 52$ & What Next?
B2C- (B2C) is a business or transactions conducted directly between a company and consumers who are the end-users of its products or services. Yes, Isn't that lucrative for end users why because products reach directly to the consumers - no middleman- no obstructions- no resistance & crude travels b2c from 43$ to 52$ with a double bottom- an important lesson from this crude journey.
What Next- Trading Strategy
Could be a start of the downside move from 52$ High & going below 42$ recent low -likely to continue down-which shall be a trading opportunity, but before that there will small upside push from last week's trading closed at
Crude from 43$ to 52$- Amazing -Later I took this as WXY pattern as it evolved
The bulls didn't have a chance last week!Bulls had a poor try to make a move up, but they didn't even retest the broken structure!
If it BO the support and TL @ 43,16 then we sell it to 39.60.
Like if you agree, follow and support please!
Crude oil at a breaking point?
RSI bullish divergence - Are the retailers maintaining the bullish momentum at the same time as the big players are dumping oil?
The weak retracement in the big picture reveals the underlying selling and the small investors are trying to catch the low.
Target for current downswing and nice long entry at 44.95 ish Eia extended the upswing but gravity prevailed.
Now we seem to be headed to the intersection
median downsloper and MLH upsloper.
I will certainly contemplate longs there with
median upsloper as first target and
MLH upsloper as second target.
Please note my bigger stop for the second target.
Trade well and prosper :)
Median high probability target, currently @ 49.20In my last chart I pointed out a point of interest and possible long entry. It seems price has indeed bounced and is now headed north. The median on this hourly chart is a high probability target for me now.
Oil Prices Rise over 5% amid Russia and Saudi Arabia Production Crude Oil was saved on Friday soaring over $1 to trade at 44.22 while Brent oil saw a gain of $1.18 soaring to 46.63. Both benchmarks closed the week with significant losses down by 7% each. However, Monday morning saw volatile trading action despite the US markets on holiday. Crude oil soar 4.37% trading at $46.03 while Brent oil is trading at $48.82 up 4.99%. Comments from Russia that they see no need to attend the OPEC producers meeting later this month as they are now happy with prices seemed to pull the rug out from under the feet of speculators. Oil took a huge hit on Thursday falling over 3.45% in a single session hitting a low of 43.00.
Point of interest and possible long entryTechnically we are still in an uptrend but candles this big are hard to ignore. It looks like the deliberate august run up just turned into a massacre. However i have found an interesting area to watch for possible long entry, or at least for a bump to re enter short.
