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From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Zcash Eyes $80-$100 as Bullish Momentum Builds!Welcome to another analysis where we take a look at Zcash! Zcash is a well-established cryptocurrency with significant potential for future growth! Recent market activity shows increasing volume for Zcash, including a notable volume spike that pushed its price above the previous high, indicating a potential market shift. Additionally, the 20-day moving average (MA) is approaching a bullish crossover with the 50-day MA, further suggesting a positive trend. In my assessment, the Zcash chart is currently very promising. For those considering an entry, a strategic buying range would be between $28 and $31, aligning with the 50/20 MA levels. Historically, Zcash reached a peak of $700 in January 2018. While that level might be ambitious in the short term, a more attainable target for intraday trades would be the $50 range, with a potential upside to $80-$100 where we see a decending trendline from 2021 and more strong ressistance. The current setup offers a favorable risk/reward profile, with stop-loss levels recommended below the previous low, around $20-$25, depending on your risk tolerance. Zcash's breakout coincides with BTC dominance encountering strong resistance, and the increasing strength of various altcoins. Additionally, the Russell 2000 index is nearing a breakout, showing investor appetite for smaller-cap stocks and riskier assets. Thanks for reading and good luck with your trading! Make sure to follow me on X for more weekly updates: @PuppyNakamoto BINANCE:ZECUSDT COINBASE:ZECUSD KRAKEN:ZECUSD GEMINI:ZECUSD
Long
by WOLFofBlockStreet
1
Binance Coin(BNB): Dumping While Market is Pushing? 👀 The BNB/USDT pair on the daily chart shows a failed attempt to push higher, indicating a potential reversal. The market seems to be reacting to news about Binance's founder, which could be influencing trader sentiment. The Price is now staying below 100EMA, showing us the strong overweight of bearishness (thanks to that failed attempt to push) The path ahead for BNB may be choppy, with potential downward movements, but we need to have strong support from where we could see some sort of bounce (or some kind of positive news that could push prices out of this downward movement).
Short
by SwallowAcademy
2
🔥 Bitcoin 3-Day Golden Cross: Begin Or The End Of Bull Trend?If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow. As seen on the chart, Bitcoin has now experienced a golden cross on the 3-day chart. A golden cross means that the 50-period moving averege (blue) crosses the 200-period moving average (yellow) from below, which is often seen as a bullish thing in the financial markets. Seeing that we only have two datapoints, we can't really make a statistically feasable forecast whether the price will go up or down from this point. Another way to look at it is to argue how the market looks. Does the market look like it wants to go on some crazy bullish move, potentially even make new all-time highs in the next 6-12 months. Or, does the market look like it wants to stabilize, potentially even correct after several green months. With both bullish and bearish outlooks being plausible, I think a bearish correction over the next months is more likely than a bullish move. Share your thoughts in the comments below 🙏.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
44
BNBUSDT Price, time & divergences.As a update about my current bear position on CZ coin as you can see by the link below. The price action is heading one leg downward to complete a wave 5 of a contracting ending diagonal, according to the Wave Principle. That seams a breakdown can be expected to the local demand, as we can see clearly on this chart. After broken, the trendline tends to be retested. All my projections are displayed. Technicals: * Chaikin Money + 100EMAx100MA cross; * ESCGO_LB; This H4 chart is showing a lot of correlations about price, time and divergences on Chaikin Money Flow in in conjunction of 100EMA & 100MA moving averages crossover plus regular and hidden divergences, which is my system I've used to finding turn-points. If in parallel with RSI, is possible to note a lot of divergences that only Chaikin oscillator can display. * In addition, an ABCD reciprocal (0.886:1.128) projection as an alternative projection.
Short
by firmestudio
1
Bullish, 550% Possible Upside.On the daily chart we have a lot of bullish potential. First we have a messy looking inverted head and shoulder pattern. The right shoulder looks like a possible Symmetrical Triangle that just completed its 5th touch and could be ready to blast off. Also, there is a Golden Cross that happened yesterday. There are also 3 gaps to fill. First Gap at $15.50, Second Gap at $21.70 Third Gap at $70.00 And finally we have broken out of the year and a half long Trend line bullishly, and even backtested it. If this can break $16.00 that could be a strong signal that this thing is going to fly! -Not Trading or Financial Advice-
NYSE:SNAPLong
by UnknownUnicorn36896380
About crossesThose who read me regularly know that I don't use MA 50/200 crossing indication. But it's something to consider here, as it's fun. Let's take a walk back in history at the same time. There is a contradiction in indication MA 50/200 at this time. 1. Top left screen. For the first time in Bitcoin trading history, a death cross has formed on the 1W chart. Oops. 2. Top right screen. At the same time, a gold cross on the 1D chart formed on 6 February is in effect. And here I thought about historical examples. One, have we ever had a golden cross and a death cross close enough to each other on a daily chart? And two, have we had crosses on a timeframe older than 1D? 3. Lower left screen. Yes, a golden cross formed in February 2020 and already a death cross in March 2020. The famous total market dump. However, the very fact that it happens. 4. Bottom right screen. Yes. We've had crosses on a timeframe longer than 1D, and this is my favourite 3D chart. I remember that November 2018 dump perfectly. It's also true that there was a 1D cross before the 3D cross on the 2018 chart before that. That is, the crossing did not work in contraposition. The current situation is developing precisely that in antiphase for dayly/weekly crosses. We have an example that a death cross on a timeframe larger than 1D has serious consequences.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by averkie_skila
🐱‍👤⛩ Sannin Cross Clouds + ⛩ 🐱‍👤Credit to Ron Westbrook, CBlast and Kiakili. This indicator is a re-engineering of their hard work. I Use the Sannin cloud to help determine the trend of price action. In theory the color indicates the trend direction. The VWAP 9ema Cross is still in BETA testing. In theory it will help determine faster term trend. This is one strategy used by Kiakili. Death Cross - Fast ema crosses below Slow ema . ( Bearish ) Golden Cross - Fast ema crosses above Slow ema ( Bullish )
NYSE:DAL
by sofakingsuper
📉 The "Death Cross" PatternDeath Cross, 5 Key things to watch The "death cross" is a market chart pattern that occurs when a short-term moving average falls below a long-term moving average, indicating recent price weakness. It is often studied using the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross pattern is more reliable when confirmed by other indicators such as high trading volume or momentum indicators like the MACD. These indicators can help confirm that a major trend change is occurring. 🟠 The Death Cross (convergence of moving averages) is a strong indication of a sell-off 🟠 If volume increases after the Death Cross, the downward trend is likely to strengthen 🟠 If price is above moving averages, strong volumes may be needed to suggest a turnaround 🟠 If price is below moving averages, the selling pressure is likely to be severe and any upward corrective moves will face strong resistance 🟠 The first sign of selling pressure weakens as moving averages start to turn upward 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
5
DODG - Golden Cross! DODG daily chart with a recent Golden Cross. A potential break-out is on deck which - looking very bullish for the dogecoin. Fisher (DW) trending bullish and looking similar to the big run up in early 2021. Price is getting support from the 50-day MA, MFI trending bullish, and the RSI is currently still above 50. Also, lots of high volume support at/near the current price from the 2021 run-up. OBV remains pegged on longer term timeframes. Good low risk entry. Adding a little more now - and will look for an actual breakout and confirmation to add more. Scalp trade. NFA.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Akksujean
2
Golden Cross GOLDEN CROSS 1. A golden cross occurs when a faster-moving average crosses a slower moving average. 2. Specifically, you need the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages. 3. Anything other than these two periods and it is not a true golden cross. 4. The golden cross is a powerful trade signal, but this does not mean you should buy every cross of the 50-period moving average and the 200. 5. You will need to bring a higher level of sophistication to the setup, to ensure you are buying into a trade with real opportunity. THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSS 1. As the downtrend in the stock market ends, the short-term 50-day moving average moves below the 200- day moving average. 2. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart. 3. In a crossover, when a stock recovers, the short-term moving average crosses over the long-term moving average. That’s where the term golden cross comes from, when the two average lines cross on a chart. THE THREE STAGES OF A GOLDEN CROSSPROFIT POTENTIAL OF THE GOLDEN CROSS PATTERN A. DEATH CROSS 1. One option is to wait for a cross of the 50 back below the 200 as another selling opportunity. 2. The only issue with this approach is you are likely to give back a sizeable portion of your profits since moving averages are a lagging indicator. B. PRIOR SUPPORT 1. What you can also do is look for areas of resistance overhead which will act as selling opportunities for longs that have been holding the stock for a long period of time. 2. A caveat to this strategy is that the stock may consolidate and push higher. C. TRENDLINE BREAK 1. If the golden cross is real, the signal will likely generate a strong buying opportunity. 2. You can then use the first couple of reactionary lows to create an uptrend line. 3. You then hold the stock until this trendline is broken.
Education
by yaser_rahmati
Deathcross tradeI've been tracking this since the BTC death cross occurred and while I know this is too late for anyone to make any profitable decisions it is worth making a note for the future. You can verify the 50 and 200MA death crosses yourself but the probability of BTC going back to 200MA is very high (only failed once in Sept 2014). Currently my safe target would be 48k. Why am I showing then the TOTAL crypto mcap chart? Well as you know other digital assets will not move up unless BTC is going up (in most cases as some directly impacting news can move an altcoin despite BTC moving down) and watching both TOTAL,TOTAL2 and BTC charts can give you a better view of the whole crypto market (add BTC.D to the mix). We are still around 10% off the minimum target and while macro outlook isn't great if it is to play out as expected based on past performance it is most likely going to happen over the next couple of weeks. If we drop lower and make new lower low then lower high this death cross trade will be treated as failed setup. Either way as mentioned before worth adding this to your trading setup arsenal (watch BTC and TOTAL charts on Daily only and you can then make bullish decisions on other crypto of interest)
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by gigisulivan