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Crisis

Are you paying attention ?It can be a challenge comparing the timeframes of two bubbles in TA, when one runs over the course of 10 years vs 2 years. Yet i believe a striking correlation playing out here between two completely different markets in it's own timeframe. As always, both bubbles is naturally fuelled by the same greed and stupidity that is coded into our human DNA . We don’t mean to get ourself in trouble by creating bubbles, but we just can't help it. It’s what makes us human. It’s the same reason we can be so certain that the next phase must begin. What im saying is nothing new under the sun. You can go back in history and study these cycles playing out over and over. It always comes down to two human components. Immense greed and extreme fear, resolving in its own way. Like Ying and Yang, a balance is always kept. It might temporary bend further to the up or downside but the ledger is always kept in check and unbalanced profits will be resolved with unbalanced losses. There’s nothing inherently evil about a bull market coming to an end, however history tells us pain and fear is two cousins that few remember at this point in the market cycle. Drawing correlation to the Bitcoin bubble in 2017, every retail investor was a genius and money was to be made whatever u did, as long as u bought - Did u get that last part? As long as u bought. Because bubble tops paints its own beautiful story, which we can use to our advantage if we pay attention. The signs are always there, and im simply hinting the strong probability of human faults once again painted on the charts. For the retail investor which has been genius for years in Nasdaq, DJI or whatever he bought, the next phase won’t be as quite as easy.Conditioned by 10 years of buying the dip, the retail investor will slowly but surely bleed out in the bear market. As they continuously buy the dip, but never secure profits on the bounces, slowly but surely, most will lose their profits from the bull years as the balance is restored to the ledger. That’s what makes it the bear market. Let’s see just how many skeletons we have in the closet for this bear cycle. I bet there’s some intersting stuff from 2008 that was swept under the carpet which will come out and play. It'll probably get very ugly. Bull markets often extend way beyond expectations. The following cycle tend to do the same. Best of luck Short all bounces.
DJ:DJIShort
by KTAS
1
!!! DJI 1937 DO YOU BELIEVE IN COINCIDENCES ??? DEJA VU ???In the late 1937 after the great depression huge money printing have happened in order to stimulate the economy... Many successful investors and portfolio managers have mentioned that we have been in the last cycle of the business cycle ! According to one of the most successful money managers Ray Dalio we have been in a similar perdion as the late 30s period. After looking at charts it turned out that we are in TOO SIMILAR situation. Sell off have occurred after a huge rally that sell of has formed bearish cypher pattern. RSI have been showing overbought condition with bearish divergence. The bull trap has occurred after that with new hopes new believes for the bright future... But all of a sudden bad things start to happen and they GRIND ON slowly but surely. Just thinking about it... Hopefully there is some more room to go but all of that money printed all of that huge debt, slowing economic growth, trade tensions negative bond yields, few EU economies close to a recession it seems to me that thing might become really really BAD. Gold has appreciated significantly in the last 4 months... Be prepared. GOOD LUCK
DJ:DJI
by TG_Advisory
3
Signs of a new recession?This is a simple Elliot Impulsive/ Correction Wave analysis of a hypothetical upcoming market recession based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The crash is modeled after the 2007 - 2009 Sub-prime mortgage crisis. This projection is based on the assumption that the ABC correction wave will drop lower then the (2) impulsive mark by -12.85%. The A B points are estimated based on a very illustrative (1) (3) (4) channel. This concludes the C wave at 9000. This is an extreme scenario on a very long term scale and is not intended to be a trading recommendation. Use it at your own discretion for reference purposes.
DJ:DJIShort
by TradingShot
17
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 27-12-18Nasdaq showed a crazy 5% drop before Christmas and an insane recovery soon after. I have mixed feelings about this. A lot of mixed signals are coming from this market and it is really hard to determine what the next move will be. Eventually we are in a big correction wave on the long term trend that could easily turn into a new bear market wave after breaking some important trend supports. However, I don't think this will happen that easy. This drop caused nasdaq to drop under a very important support line which can also be seen as the 0.618 FIB support. That one turned into a resistance and the 4% bounce stopped there. For now we are bouncing between 0.5 fib and 0.618 fib which is also a very big resistance. I expect this down movement of today to continue for a while. Maybe some more red days where we might test the 0.5 fib support and long term trend support again. But it is so hard to tell due to the heavy volatility. Be careful trading.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by Aurelius222
NASDAQ coould drop 60% in this cycleTo see where solid support lies, the monthly MA200 apparently provided solid support in the last two economic bearmarkets. This time could develop very similarly, dropping a total of 60% down to 2800, lasting until maximum mid 2020, then afterwards we'll see a new bullmarket. Interesting times! It was clear that it would come to that, but we didn't know when and how. Apparently, this is it. The great chance to buy cheap stockz, on top of cheap coinz :)
TVC:NDQShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
Possible new world crisis ? // SP500Using the Andrews Fork tool, we note that the SP500 is in a very dangerous region, from where it tends to fall to fetch the center line of the fork (red). If this happens, we will also lose the bottom line of the schiff's fork, another bass signal.    And in addition, we reached the 261% Fibonacci level well in Elliot's 5 impulse wave (according to my count), from the projection of the 2000 crash (dot.com bubble) in 2867, and the price dropped, which confirms the vision of the forks of a possible fall due to the corrective waves.    Another important point is the turn of my own indicator, the Scadufax Index, which if the monthly candle close thus, is signaling sale, something that it signaled before the crash of 2000 and 2008.    It projects a drop of at least 20%, +/- the region of 2000, but only if the price loses support of 2500, which would break the Yellow LTA of the Weekly period. This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation.
SShort
by lordwise
1
The Death of Europe's Largest BankHere we see a weekly look at Deutsche Bank - Europe's largest bank getting absolutely killed, making new all time low after another. Anyone taking about this? nope. Remind you of anything? yup - this is the same thing thing that was going on during the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. DB has already lost 55% of it's market cap this year alone, 85% since the fed "stimulus" in 2009. This is not Bitcoin we are talking about here... this is one of the biggest financial institutions on the planet, and investors are getting fed up. DB has the largest amount of derivative exposure out there, and their books are PILED HIGH with toxic junk debt, and mortgage backed securities. After the bail out in '08, Lehman Brothers was consolidated at $2.50 per share, I see no difference here. This is going to get ugly folks. Get prepared. Best of luck, hit the thumbs up.
NYSE:DBShort
by Lorenz_Capital
22
Are we entering a new recession? Death cross on S&P.S&P500 printed this month a Death Cross (MA50/MA200) and is already -8.40% since its appearance. A similar occurrence took place in 2008 at the start of the global financial crisis. In 2008 the Death Cross resulted into a fast (around 1 month) -14.40% decline on the index and assuming that the same sequence will follow, we can expect S&P to drop below 2,400 and around 2,360 in the next 20-30 days. The similarities (another -11.80% decline that preceded) and timing between the two periods are astonishing. If the monetary governing bodies do not turn the very negative market psychology around soon by reviewing their policies, we should be looking into a new recession in 2019. If that's the case, and the full bear cycle sequence of 2008 is followed, we may see S&P losing around -55-60% of its value, making a bottom around 1,250. Of course this is just a technical projection based on recurring patterns and similar candle sequences from the historical volatility at hand. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SP:SPXShort
by InvestingScope
24
A little Crash for the next 2 years. DowJones only -70% from ATHHi,  take it with a grain of salt, take it dead serious or whatever you want.  Logarithmic Chart. Although it will be terrible,... this will be not doomsday. The historical trend of the stock market is in good order. This will be always the case until the end of the world. (the real end) What i did not comment: I think XRP will solve the coming liquidity crisis, as the banks will be able to close their nostro accounts. This money will flow back into the market. It is also possible, that we will be stop the downtrend at the old ATH. This is for entertainment only and not an Advice.  I always like to have some new perspectives, so feel free to comment. Thank you very much, have fun and enjoy
DJ:DJIShort
by gsdgeweg
4
SP500, Similar fractals, Is this the comming financial crisis? Hi folks, this is my first time posting an idea/"short" analysis publicly, hope you'll enjoy it This is the chart from SP500, I mirrored 2007 financial crisis structure, unedited, raw and pure, pasted it below our chart, checked the fractals/similarity, and it's deadly alike. With the somewhat positive sentiment from OPEC and 90 Days truce between president Xi Jinping and Donald Trump we have something that might bring the SP500 back to "normal" comming weeks, months. Once the truce resolves, I bet we'll get into a "fear" phase... Nothing is new in the stock market... said J Livermore... and I concur. Not sure of how it was back in 2007, but perhaps some of you older folks remember what caused the "back to normal" phase... and we can compare... Stay safe or play it safely folks. cdn-images-1.medium.com
SP:SPX
by achh
13
The Death of the Stock Market and Why Most Traders SuckThe good traders never get famous. They're lone wolves. They won't give you what you want because being a good trader requires peak IDGAFness. What you want is 8 meticulously detailed and data intensive paragraphs about why the stock market is going down 53% from the ATH and how you could have know that back in October. But you actually don't need to know anything about finance to see it in the chart. Why waste my breath? I posted the chart. A picture is worth a thousand words. The people who will benefit from this trade idea are the people who are free thinkers. You will see the chart and think for yourself: How could this be 99% accurate and/or how could this be 99% wrong? You need to be able to envision both possibilities in your head and manage your risk around what is the most probable scenario. Forget the narratives, forget the "news". .....But I dont need to tell you good traders that, if you see this post your already figuring out what you can learn from this chart; the rightness and wrongness of my idea (statement) based of of your own interpretation. Like modern art it tis. This is honestly just a normal market cycle. A measly correction is unlikely. Once we fall past the MA200 its a rippity rippity wrap. (but first Im gunna long the bounce off the MA200 before it continues to break down) BEAR GANG GOING FOR THE SLAM DUNK
SP:SPXShort
by XanderLoon
2