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#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - pltrGood evening and I hope you are well. Let's do some single stock trading ideas. Palantir. comment: The stock that lives on hopes and dreams of people who know few about IT and much less about data & analytics, much like Snowflake. Go look at the Snowflake chart. When I have read the ipo price in 2020 I told everyone it was a bubble and the stock should trade below 100 for many years until maybe big profits could come in. They are still years away from those big profits and the stock lost 49% from the IPO price. I do not know anyone who works in Data & Analytics and knows Palantir who tells anything positive about them. It's a hype stock that got good publicity because of investors and defense contracts. That stock will trade below 15 in either late 2024 or 2025. Not financial advice. current market cycle: My dead dog can tell you it's a traingle and that is a form of a trading range and market is in breakout mode. Your job is to wait for the breakout and hop along, that's it. Now set the same alerts as I have and make money once they ring. key levels: 20 - 27 bull case: Market is getting rejected at the 50% pb from all time low to all time high. That's bearish af. Only chance bulls have for this to trade back up is a weekly close above 27. Bulls have going for them, that there seems to be big passive buying at 20.50. They are also trading above the daily and weekly 20ema, which is also bullish. Invalidation is below 20. bear case: Once that buyer at 20.50 gives up, it's free fall. The triangle will probably play out and we see some downside from 23 to 20/21 again in the short term. Last earnings surprised upwards and bulls used that spike as exit liquidity. Tells you something. Invalidation is above 26. short term: bearish for trade back down to 20/21. Short term in this case means several weeks, since I'm posting the weekly chart. medium-long term: I don't know which way the triangle breaks down to but either way, you can clearly see the big lows and highs. One of those will probably get retested before the other. So set the alarms and trade it when it breaks out. I hope my insrted illustrations help you.
P
by priceactiontds
ROSE - Selling the TopWe have two setups here in either direction we have been screening ROSE and ONDO for quite a while now and we want to bid both this short and the long. We let those things run over the night, therefore we play it with a hard stop. On ROSE we have been ranging for quite a while and we finally broke out and cleared out the imbalances that have settled on the sell off candle on the 12.04 the supply needs to be flipped in order to be bullish. Even tough BTC seems to hold it's level nicely we think this daily supply is too much for ROSE to flip. As a target we are eying the POC at $0.0927 but we are going to take profits on the way down. You will find ONDO here -
Short
by stromm_by_wmc
Petrobras (PETR): Bearish Divergence - Heading for a Dip After the market closed yesterday, Petrobras, a Brazilian stock, released a new earnings report. We're analyzing it in Brazilian Real (BRL) to get the most accurate view of the chart. On the weekly chart, we anticipate a mild but noticeable bearish divergence, especially since the beginning of 2024 when the stock has significantly appreciated. There is considerable downside potential as we expect the completion of Wave (3), followed by a downward adjustment in Wave (4). The exact retracement level for Wave (4) is yet to be determined, but we anticipate a pullback to around 38.52% before the stock resumes its upward trajectory in Wave (5). Our downside target is around 50 BRL, considering Petrobras' high dividend yield. This makes the stock attractive not only for its growth potential but also for its income-generating ability. A closer look at the daily chart reveals potential scenarios for either the completion of Wave 5 or Wave (3), highlighting areas where bearish divergence becomes more apparent. This divergence is evident due to the significant impulsive rises in the stock over recent months and weeks, which have created several imbalances. Despite closing gaps and reaching new highs, a downward correction is likely needed before we can see further upward movement. We anticipate that the correction in Wave (4) will take the stock lower, potentially reaching levels between 28.28 and 23.30 BRL.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR3
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bitcoin (BTC): Whats happening?Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart, using a three-day timeframe. Here's the scenario we're observing: we've developed a significant bearish divergence. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently in a short but valid sideways phase, indicating an impending decision on direction—upward or downward break is expected in the coming weeks. Our analysis leans towards anticipating a Wave 4 correction. We suspect that it hasn't completed at the 23.6% level since, given the strong upward momentum previously observed. A deeper decline might be necessary before attempting to reach levels like $80,000, $85,000, or even $90,000. Nonetheless, we generally don't expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in this cycle. Concerning potential downturns, if Bitcoin falls below the $49,500 mark (50% retracement level), we foresee possible support between $44,000 and $41,600, marking our worst-case scenario for this phase. The mega worst case would involve a drop to $31,000, which, while not impossible, is highly improbable under current conditions and thus unrealistic to expect. On the daily chart, the situation becomes a bit clearer after our previous analysis at $40,000. Since then, we've reached a new all-time high of $73,800 but have not regained our former strength, presenting the possibility that Wave (4) may have already concluded. There's also a chance that prices might dip again, and for this scenario, we plan to place a limit order at $55,236, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the 50% level. If you're considering this setup purely for spot buys with a long-term hold strategy, you might opt to set another limit at the worst case scenario. We anticipate that the price should hold around $48,000. If it falls further, we'd consider secondary entries at around $40,000 and a third potential entry at $31,000. Depending on where the turnaround occurs, we expect the subsequent rise for Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I to reach between $78,000 and $88,000.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
SP500, TAKE THE PAST AND SEE THE FUTURE?So, this is a slightly different look of another chart. Basically, we might be seeing this play out in real time. This pattern is scary where the price currently sits. and to where it can head. What is the pattern? Trace 2018 to Covid and then into recovery and correction. Bring that to the current move, pattern, wave... whatever you want to call it. It's close, not exact, but close, and close enough that it can't be completely thrown out as an idea. But that's all guessing based on a pattern, which is dumb. So, what do we know. We can see numbers projected to 600. We can see numbers projected to 200. We can see multiple gaps on the downside. We can see multiple stocks at their highs. We can see multiple stocks moving some 10% or more on earnings with price movements that don't quite make sense. We know there are two massive support trends (I just made the one) because of how close they are to each other. We've been seeing stocks break down past massive support trends, and then when all hope is lost, a huge return. We know statistically, gaps almost always close, and in a similar way of thinking, most impulse moves retrace a little over 100% (this gives no indication of the timing of a move, could be days, weeks, months, years...) We can see certain indicators starting to flash some bearish signals. We can see there might be another exit pump but we can't really know. We can see, charts are quite overextended from COVID lows. We know the election is around the corner. We know how bad a "down" market or market crash can look for a sitting president. We know more support comes in at 4780, 4360, 3800, 3300, 2900, 2500, 2200. I'm sure if you look hard enough, you'd find evidence that supports both a bullish and bearish projection on the s&p500, which is good. Take in all the info you can. Don't believe my garbage chart, but also, I wouldn't completely skip it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by nicktussing77
CAN THE MARKET SURVIVE AN 80% CRASH, WHAT ABOUT ONLY 40%?So, for anyone who likes to watch certain movements. A big one is about to occur. A rejection from this break is the covid drop. about 30% and some. However, the end of the cycle, if you believe in those kind of things, would be a 100% retrace of the impulse with a little extra on the downside, which closes all gaps, I believe. That takes us down below 200. It would have to be quick. Next cycle then starts and pulls us up to $600. I tried to mark it in orange. This chart isn't an idea as in (I REALLY THINK WE'RE DROPPING 80% in less than 1 year). This is more to show that trend break from the past and the trend break showing. 518 to 530. CAREFUL ZONE!!! Market is showing a lot of crazy movements and numbers. I think something has to be "up" such as China and Taiwan considering what we're seeing with semiconductors.
AMEX:SPYShort
by nicktussing77
6
Polkadot (DOT): Are we done yet?We had to reassess the situation with DOT on the daily chart and have concluded that we are still not seeing the completion of Wave (2). Why is this the case? Because the correction downward following what we assume to be Wave (2) is too brief in duration to be considered a Wave 2. However, the upward movement towards Wave B was surprisingly strong. Since we have now fallen below the level of Wave A, and we make no exceptions for Wave 2 as we might for a Wave 4, we believe this represents an overshooting Wave B, which respected the 161.8% level almost to the cent. We now expect a downward movement that should reach between the 78.6% and 100% levels. Upon closer inspection, we also assume that what we overshoot upward, we'll compensate for downward, a typical characteristic of an Expanded Flat. Therefore, the 78.6% to 100% range is seen as crucial and robust. The low of $3.56 must not be breached, which would be far from ideal. On the daily chart, we also note a Fair Value Gap above, which remains the only gap on this chart. Eventually, all such gaps get filled. The question remains: will we move towards $4.85 or $9.50 first? Upon closer examination on the 4-hour chart, we've observed a four-wave structure since Wave B. Currently, we are respecting the 38.2% to 50% zone for Wave ((iv)) and remain below it. The scenario we believe in indicates a potential drop to $4.85. The timing is uncertain, and we may see some sideways movement for a while before experiencing a sharper decline. We've reached the 2.618 Fibonacci time zone, indicating a perfect setup for Wave (2). We've missed this by a day, but still anticipate a further decline, remaining within this golden zone. Additional Fibonacci clusters lend further confirmation, therefore, we expect significant buying volume in the range of $4.85 to $3.56. This would be an intriguing entry point as we are at the end of Wave (2), predicting that the subsequent Wave (3) will surpass Wave (1). The peak of Wave B at $11.88 offers a solid target, potentially making this a very interesting long-term swing trade.
BINANCE:DOTUSD
by freeguy_by_wmc
SOFI EARNINGS CHART, BRING YOUR BEAR SPRAY. BIG DROP TO UNDER $5Current price takes it down 36% to price target. Closes the gap on the weekly. Earnings at this specific time when things like yesterday happened on the big stocks. And Snap going 30% up after going down big in the morning. This move fits within the currently reality of price movements. Even if we head up some 12% on the day and it's bullish, watch for the drop into the AH. Could be really big. Good news for bulls, the price target at 4.45 to 4.9 is an entry target to go long up to 17. But it would be good to see the downside first on this earnings call. And setup for a big run as the meme stocks start to fly. Mid 6 is support and could see a bounce and maybe we see the rest of the downside on Monday finish out throughout the next few days. Good luck with whatever you choose on earnings!! Personally, I see the downside coming. But I'd like to see some upside today on sofi to really pull the price swing to a pretty large percentage move, and give puts some more upside. But I'm not sure as I haven't looked at this stock in awhile. Price targets and trends are marked. Those should be fairly good to use, but with earnings, it will break a lot of them quick in both directions. But more so on the downside. The orange trends are fairly strong rejection trends. The support trend is fairly strong. BUT the weekly has a wicked nasty last drop showing. I'd say normally we'd hold that support trend, but they have been breaking hard in the AH earnings moves.
NASDAQ:SOFIShort
by nicktussing77
11
Helium: Another Shitcoin Down The Drain!Look at the chart and recogize. That is a SHITCOIN SCAMCOIN chart. Down -70% and far from done crashing. If $3.90 breaks, it's all the way down to $0.50 for this turd. This will be the fate of all SOL #Solana ecosystem scam shit coins such as HNT #Helium and MOBILE #Mobile. I would not be surprised if this drops another 95% from here. Helium , Helium Mobile , and all other #DePIN shitcoins linked to Solana ecosystem are dying in real-time and we are lucky enough to witness it. Shorting this on leverage = EZ, free money!
COINBASE:HNTUSDShort
by couldntcomeupwithone
10
$SHOP 10D wants $68 if we stay under $80Of course, all ideas are my opinion alone. SHOP went a bit crazy last week but still rejected the same gap from the Winter 22' pullback. Looking at this head and shoulders on the daily, PA seemingly looking for a touch of the gap below around $64. May have to wait for the first week of April for the move to be underway. Keep on Watch, with a Bullish Market, $82+ possible before the end of the week for a Bull Trap setup as stock is breaking trendlines of the possible larger timeframe bear flag its been in since Spring 22' .... Stay Patient.. after high $60s I'll be looking for a rally to fill gap above at $89.12
NYSE:SHOPShort
by TazmanianTrader
2
A Speed Bump or a Sign of Things to Come?The recent dip in the crypto market, triggered by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, serves as a stark reminder of the market's volatility. Bitcoin prices plummeted to GETTEX:59K before a swift recovery, leaving many investors wondering: was this a blip on the radar or a harbinger of things to come? **The Iran-Israel Factor:** Geopolitical tensions have historically impacted traditional markets, and crypto appears increasingly susceptible as well. The news of a potential war undoubtedly spooked investors, leading to a sell-off. However, the market's swift bounce back suggests that the long-term outlook might remain bullish. **Bull Run on Hold?** The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for sometime in 2024, is a highly anticipated event that often precedes bull runs. While the recent crash might cause a temporary setback, historical data suggests that these halvings often lead to price increases due to a reduced supply of new Bitcoins. **Full-Fledged War? A Bearish Threat?** A full-blown war would undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on global markets, including crypto. Increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty could trigger a prolonged bear market. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust your strategy accordingly. **The Power of Diversification:** Regardless of the bull or bear market predictions, diversification remains a crucial strategy. Spreading your investments across various cryptocurrencies and asset classes can help mitigate risk. **The Final Word: It's All Speculation** The future of the crypto market, especially in light of geopolitical events, is inherently uncertain. While a bull run is still possible after the halving, external factors can always play a role. Here's where **you** come in! Join the discussion in the comments below!** Share your thoughts: * Do you think the recent crash is a sign of a larger correction? * How will a potential full-fledged war impact the crypto market? * What strategies are you using to navigate the current market climate? **By fostering a community of informed investors, we can all navigate the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.** **Disclaimer:** This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
by OMGiTzREALHASSAN
2
TETHER (USDT) COLLAPSE IS IMMINENT! With the United States about to pass strict regulation regarding stablecoins, which includes a measure to insure "Robust transparency, audit and reporting requirements," Tether is absolutely doomed, as they have consistently refused to confirm a 1:1 peg to the USD through an independent, third-party audit, which in my book, is because they're not doing it. Something is fishy with Tether, and I would not be surprised if it has not maintained the 1:1 peg as it has claimed, but will soon be exposed as a fraud, and a ponzi scheme designed to benefit its owners at the expense of the general public. On April 9th, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) announced that: "This legislation develops two paths for stablecoin issuers. 1- The first path would be for depository institutions that would allow for both federal and state bank charter depository institutions to become stablecoin issuers after an approval process. 2- The other path would be for nondepository institutions that would give the federal government supervisory authority over the state nonbank institutions while preserving states as the primary functional regulator." This spells the end for Tether, and certain doom for any company whose business model relies upon it, such as: Exchanges, OTC desks, Trading Platforms and Wallets, Remittance Services and DEFI Platforms. You were warned! Don't get caught holding the bag!
COINBASE:USDTUSDShort
by MetaShackle
2