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$AAPL - Apple is starting to weaken in this correction!Apple gapped below the 200 day moving average today, and we even saw some baerish follow up during the day. Apple below the 200 day moving average is very significant, happens rarely and if it happens, usually we see a bigger correction then. We are in a pretty solid channel atm, with decent reactions at the supply and demand side. Should we break that channel though, first watch for the grey box to find support in there, as it is the golden zone (.382 - .618) from Covid low to ATH Fibonacci. IF that box should be broken as well, we are poised for that huge gap close at around 100$, Apple has ALOT of gaps in it's chart, but i think that gap is so big, and marks the break of 100$ and got never backtestet, since we broke out back then, wouldn't be weird at all, if the market should decide to backtest that. .786 retrace, which would be considered deep value would correlate to pre covid ATH. Watch this chart guys, this is probably the indicator, of what we can expect from the broad market, we need Apple above 200 day EMA, or things might get really dicey. Stay safe !!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by 10xTrading
New trend line for the S&P? 4th industrial revolution starting?Is there a new trend line on the horizon for the S&P 500 and the market overall? I compare different trend lines including what I guess to be ultra bears like Peter Schiff & Jeremy Grantham's trend line. If we are entering the 4th industrial revolution, that people like Cathie Wood & Klaus Schwab are talking about, I think we should expect a new trend line to appear. One that is a step change in the ongoing growth of the overall market compared to the old trend line of ~7.5% More time is needed to see what the new trend will ultimately be, but it seems obvious that growth has accelerated in recent time with more companies than ever growing revenue at rates higher than 40%, 50%, 60%, and even 100% a year.
SP:SPXLong
by JoeBusLife
41
Major Crashes and the Federal Funds RateThe last three major crashes and recessions have been preceded by a period of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Each hike since the 1970s has gotten less and less far before the economy rolled over, calling for an emergency rate cut. There are many reasons for this, including the deflationary impact of demographics and globalisation, as well as the ever increasing debt burden around the world. This has caused us to want lower and lower rates, and to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) when the rates bottom out and cannot be reduced further. Each time the rates are hiked. Each time the Fed eventually realises the economy cannot cope and performs an emergency rate cut. Each time in the last three cycles, this came too late, and a crash ensued. A trendline can be drawn to estimate where the rate hikes could go this time before history begins to rhyme. Incidentally, this is also what the bond market is pricing in right now. With spiralling inflation, the Russia crisis and the energy prices, the pressure to hike rates is extreme. However, the economy is slowing, the earnings are stalling, and the stimulus is spent. China's economy has already stalled to the point where its government has cut rates, even in the face of inflation. When will the US be next? Unless the Russia/Ukraine situation stabilises soon, this chart is probably conservative.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by hydespo
2
Coming crash-Ukraine war Crash is coming and bearish bear became stronger and worrisome at Ukraine. Russia destroyed military base near polish border; further more attacks western Ukraine and become offensive, also China aided to meet tension with the Russians towards Ukraine; even so trump told Biden to try to end the ukraine war otherwise will lead to nuclear world war aka WWIII. Markets has been weakened from the event still happening and we will be seeing the bear market shortly.
Short
by JoyBoyVegae
Is Gold going to $100,000? The short answer is 'I don't know'. What I know is what everybody can see that Gold has broken out. I look into some of the price action - and it gets wilder as we move deeper up in the trend. There are no predictions in this chart. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
2
Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
Wallstreets wants the Q's weekly EMA 200 again?Currently we are inmiddle of one of the most chaotic times, and stockmarket is starting to price in some serious fears into the market. Just eventually be prepared, that wallstreet might be aiming for some real deep value here. Btw. currently we buy the 100 week average price on nasdaq, not the worst spot to maybe start a fresh longterm depot, DCAing on the way down to maybe the weekly 200 might be somewhat of a chance with long horizon. Stay safe guys, trade setups coming soon again, busy times..
NASDAQ:QQQ
by 10xTrading
GBP/JPY: Short PosiitonGreat Britain Pound show right now sell inminent of this downtrend continuation against Yen Japanese to trade Forex This it's the Daily chart and it's look bearish and Pound could to hit down to $149.46 JPY. This it's the market structure, but in case that Pound make a pull back to $152.70 JPY approx. This zone it's another opportuity to sell in case that we fall this trade. Now, in H1 I see this price action and Pound forming a bearish hammer, an indication to sell. So guys, in our economic calendar there're nothing for tomorrow to still pending the pause of the market when that pass, but we hope to read everyday in our Forex news to know what happen in the world, specially in this conflicts of war between Ukraine and Russia.
Short
by harisonhbn9718
4
How's That Great Depression Fractal Lookin'? (Dow Jones)It's looking pretty good. Although I was thinking markets could see one final blow-off top, this is looking like less of a possibility at the moment. The bearish narrative has pretty much set in. Although shorts can be squeezed, I think it's likely the market will fail to find buyers at higher prices and get heavily rejected. Will it play out exactly like this? Most likely not, but the similarity in structure is striking. We also have some similarities in global issues - pandemic, inflation, war....it just continues, only about a century later. This makes sense, because 90-100 years is enough time for many to accumulate generational wealth, and for massive inequalities and inequities to increase due to runaway capitalism. The Dow Jones seems to be confirming a longer term top - the monthly MACD was completely overextended and has just flipped read. Stoch is at bottom and the Ultimate Oscillator keeps printing bearish divergences month after month. What would happen to crypto if stock indexes declined by a magnitude similar to the Great Depression? I think Bitcoin would probably test levels not seen in years, and perhaps it would bounce more quickly than the rest of the market once the bottom is reached. Things would be insanely volatile. Something like this: Seems unlikely, and it probably is. But this is all meant as speculation. Let's see what the future brings! There could be some seriously amazing opportunities out there during this turbulent time. -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
9
1 and a 2 and a 3...1.. double bounces on Ichimoku Cloud. 2.. Weekly Tenkan-Sen crossing over Kijun-Sen. and a 3... Chikou Span crossing over prior price confirming trend. 21D moving average on GEX flatlining Wheat prices, hope you don't like bread. Oil prices, hope you like being stuck at home. Nat Gas, hope you have a wood stove next winter. Vodka losing their damn minds. This month choices of FUD include: Nuclear Meltdowns MAD - Mutual Assured Destruction Futures Roll CPI data FOMC rate hike Quad Witching and last but not least Negative Gamma Exposure for everyone!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
1
sound money, the play on precious metals is scary thought for metals to do well nations must face difficult times ahead, but with us president having no problem devaluing US dollar to make us markets competitive to export goods, means one think a weaker dollar as other countries do the same thing we are certainly heading towards a downward sprial, and us dollar being a bad place to keep a store of value for your hard heard dollars. just look at the yield curve, they had to manipulate the treasury bills but buying long term t bill and still could stop it from crashing. equities are too overvalued and the coronavirus was honestly the excuse to sell everything. if you really looked that the market it has had severe problems and rapid price appreciation is going to make it worse. i have been conducting research at McDonalds and Wawa and stores alike where they have been increasing the price of goods, and taking items off the dollar menu. the only reason I haven't built a bomb shelter & move to Yukon is cause Arizona 99 cent cans are still 99 cent and Wendys 4 for 4 is still around that my indicator when things are going down cause those are promises lol. enough jokes if you arent heading agaisnt a huge dollar depreciation your in for a rude awaking. just check out dxy if anyone wants i could make a chart. so just know you 401k is effectively gone and the government knows, they made too many promises and now its gonna hurt the people retiring shame. as I had spent some time rubbing elbows with huge investment banking institutions and small ones. they are just peddling financial products to customers and they few u as a number and they are very good that making you feel special. anyway, I do still believe gold and silver will come down a bit. but upside potential very nice to look at if you own some. and everyone should hold a some. quick bullets fundamental + has been in a bear market for 10 years + crackdown on price suppression on metals + yeild curve on t-bills just not worth it loose money really. + people who weren't in the market before now join in aka your friends bout 2 shares of xyz company and have no idea if it makes sense other then that they love "bla bla bla" + every county wants a weak currency + feds pooping there pants they did a preemptive .25 rate cut last week and well we could get .75 cut now. so when we go to zero cause powell has no spine + world tensions are getting hot turky and russia for example, and Russias FU to opec classic saw it coming lol. and I could go on and on. my main gold is just preserving my wealth. which is by i sold all my equitys a while ago and am focused on commodities as they are at a near all-time low and you and i can buy things at a record low price that hasn't been seen for 40 years. oh also there is gonna be a supply crunch as Wuhan is one of the biggest manufacturing cities in the world and well we all know there is effectively no activity also farming looks like is gonna have a really hard time this spring with there output. have a great day -MR MR
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by infusion
Bitcoin About to CRASH! This happened THREE times in 10 Years!Hi All, Hit the Like and Follow button before we get started! One of the biggest signal that Bitcoin is going to crash soon just flashed again! This happened THREE times in the past 10 years and yesterday it did it for the FOURTH time! (see the green arrows on chart). 1. The first time it happened on September 2014, it crashed 60% from $400 to $150 2. The second time it happened on August - November 2018, it crashed 50% from $6,400 to $3,200 3. The third time happened on March 2020 (aka COVID Crash), it crashed 40% from $6,400 to $3,800 4. The fourth time is happening now on January 2022, currently at $35,000 and it could potentially crash 40-60% to $21,000 through 14,000 Each time this happened, we reached the final bottom and full capitulation. Place buy/long orders at $21,000-17,000 and $14,000-9,000 and wait! Thank me later. Note: It could take days or few weeks or couple of Months before the crash happens. Happy trading! Carl M. Check out my previous analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinGuru
3
MARKET CRASH! PAYPAL $PYPL ANALYSISHey all, I know this is some of the first Stock analysis that I have put out on trading view, but for those of you who know me, I have been calling moves in the stock market on point since 2018. Known for: Called Shocktober of 2018 Called the Crash of 2020 (my call was for 3 days after the start of the crash, since COVID was the black swan catalyst that started its dive). Called the irregular V-Bottom Recovery for the Crash of 2020. Called the now forming start of the Crash of 2022 that Ive projected it to happen in Q1 2022, since the start of 2021. This Crash will be an overall trend reversal across major indexes, due to price action reaching a test of a macro scale .618 Fibonacci Extension. I've projected that the crash starting in 2022, will play out a similar style to that of the Bubble Pop that occurred in 1929, except due to the extensive size of the bubbled market we have today, this crash we will see in the market, will make the crash of 1929 look like its little BEEYYOTCH. Shown Here: Now to jump into this analysis. OVERALL MARKET ANALYSIS: After seeing for the first time in a very long time we have seen the major indexes like the SPX , DJI and other indexes all have failed to create a new higher high, despite making a lower low off this recent drop we have seen since the start of 2022. This has started a new downward trajectory for the market, that could lead into the projected crash that I have called to start in 2022. In addition to the FED re-introducing rate hikes as of Q2 2022, This will just add to all the inflation that is already happening i.e. current currency supply inflation, Consumer price index inflation, supply & demand inflation due to supply chain bottlenecking... Examples of how inflation is affecting not only the consumers but even the companies producing the products can be seen everywhere. We as consumers continue seeing prices rising with what looks like no end in sight. Manufacturers have been downsizing the products they produce and are still charging more for the same product just packaged a bit smaller now. For example Gatorade used to have the 32floz bottle size and used to be able to get them 2 for $4. Nowadays you will not see the 32floz size and instead you will see a 29floz bottle size and most commonly I see 2 for $6. Many products have been doing this to be able find extra product within the product they already produce and now use a slightly smaller container which both help cut some costs for the company while being able to produce the same product. NASDAQ:PYPL CHART ANALYSIS : Due to the major indexes making that lower low and then coming back with a lower high, this has started the downward trajectory, and as of Feb 2 2022, when the indexes made that top and the price turned around, You are seeing MAJOR PRICE DROPS across many of the individual stocks in recent days. The drops normally have been forming new large gaps in the chart, which led me to analyze any other possible gaps that are present that have NOT been filled to current date. The ONLY REAL chart analysis that is needed at this point is to follow the gaps in the charts, because as the old saying goes "Gaps Fill". As you can see here on Paypal's chart, we had been dropping from its highs since mid-2021 and also made a gap higher up in the chart in November 2021 that has yet to be filled from $216 - $224. The bottom of the gap was re-tested and failed, which resulted in a drop down to the .382 FIB Retracement, but upon its initial test, the price action broke below the .382 level. Although its attempt to hold that level, its initial break would be the cause for its continued move downward. Although we had what looked like a promising recovery off the .55 Fib Retracement level, this was SAVAGELY Shut down the same day that the major indexes put in the lower high turnover in price action. Combined with the market pricing in its dissatisfaction with the FED reintroducing rate hikes next quarter, the combined confirmations have woke up the bears from hibernation and they are HUNGRY. This SAVAGE rejection produced an instant GAP downwards of 20.5%, resulting in a GAP from $141 - $176. This has yet to be filled, as marked on the chart. The drop down to this level has filled a GAP that was left unfilled from May 2020, and is now filled. Which is a slightly positive observation. We could have seen the gap that we just formed possibly fill, if the price action was able to break the bottom of the GAP which sits right on top of the .618 FIB Retracement level, and with the GAP candle forming under the .618 fib retracement, this produced a further move downward, creating a move further downward to the $123 price level. Currently, we have the candle from last Friday (2/4/22) form candle body support on top of the .706 FIb Retracement level and that correlates to holding support on top of a Double Top that formed formed from the start of 2019 up to the crash of 2020. PREDICTIONS: Overall, there are plenty of swing trade opportunities all throughout each of the moves the market makes. But overall, a short/downward price action bias is still overwhelmingly strong right now A) From this level we could see a move to re-test the .618 Fib Retrace, resistance level at $141. IF it does re-test the .618 fib retracement, the probability of being rejected is HiGHLY LIKELY due to the strength of the .618 fib levels overall, but that would also mark the top of the now filled GAP from May 2020. And considering the time frame as to which that would happen, that would be around the start of Q2 2022 which is when rate hikes would be started again. A break of such a strong fib level also has a very low possibility due to the move that was just made downward as well. B) Whether we re-test $141 or we re-test the $128 level, which is the bottom side of the May 2020 Gap that's been now filled. The current candle body support on the .706 FIb Retracement level is below this $128 GAP resistance and also below the last long term ascending trend line that we had. The confluence of bearish confirmations would mean that the bottom side of that GAP would result as a new resistance point for the chart and seeing that there is yet another unfilled GAP from April 2020, we are most probable to see a move that pushes us down to the $94 - $96.50 price level. A Key indication of what the next move would be from this GAP fill would be whether or not the price action can recover and wick back above the .865 fib retracement to hold candle body support. C1) IF it can recover the .865 fib level, that could fuel a trend to the upside to re-test the .786/ .706/ .618 fib retracement levels, A break and hold of support of each would allow us to fill the November 2021 and February 2022 GAPs. C2) Keep in mind that there is also a GAP that is from April 2017 that is yet to be filled that sits down at the $45 -$46 price level. After filling the April 2020 GAP at $94 - $96.50, If we CANNOT recover the .865 Fib Level and start to close daily candles below $100, the probability of yet another move downward to the April 2017 GAP would be inevitable. We would see some indicator and oscillator relieving support at the 1 Fib Retracement level and then ultimately the 1.618 FIB Retracement level sits down at $37.50.. CONTINGENCIES: There are a couple of things that would create the opportunity but also the ability to continuously capitulate in a waterfall down, 85% to fill the April 2017 GAP and down 88% to find support at the 1.618 fib retracement level. These factors would include any of the following: FED not realizing that the market will continue to capitulate as long as the are integrating Rate HIkes. Of which, start in Q2 2022 with up to a 1% rate hike, Q3 2022 with up to a 2.15% rate hike, and Q4 2022 with up to a 3.25% rate hike. Then for 2023 the continued rate hikes are projected at 3.25% and up based on FED evaluation. They do not plan on decreasing rates by any means until their have drastically reduced their $9.5 Trillion Balance of Mortgage Backed Securities (Debt Treasury Bonds) that they have bought from the banks in the form of bailouts. This balance does not include any of the passed budget plans that has required the FED to create new currency to fund budget plans which also include all the stimuli for COVID-19 and EDD funds to each state to continue to payout Unemployment claims, PUA and PEUC benefits to everyone. NOT Reverting back to 0% rates will continue to impact the market with detrimental effects from the roughly $25-$30 Trillion dollars that have been created in the past 2 years. With how long the rates have been at 0% - 0.5% prior to COVID and then during the last two years, having maintained a 0% rate, while we also have been creating obscene amounts of new currency to be able to provide liquidity for everything that would be to simulate the economy velocity or to pay for COVID related expense, and bank bailouts. Another detrimental factor that comes into play are that physical fiat currency will NOT be made for most of the amounts that have been generated for liquidity. Which means that the Federal Stimulus direct deposits and checks, the bank bailouts, and the liquidity given to states to fund the Unemployment and PUA and PEUC benefits were all sent out using currency digits. Currency Digits = newly created currency from the FED that does not create new physical fiat currency to account for the newly created currency amount. Instead this currency amount is transferred as digits and then the debt is held in Treasury Bonds. Problem is that those T-Bonds become a ticking time bomb, cause the FED has been creating new currency digits to give out at a 0% rate, but then has to turn around and buy up defaulted mortgages and debt bailing out the banks to then make new Treasury Bonds for the new debt its bought, of which all banks and other country's banks and governments would bid to be able to acquire these T-Bond'd backed securities of debt for an incentive i.e. profit %, tax cut, lump sum payout for holding it. But when you have every other Country in the world that is having their own economic crisis that takes them out of the picture and banks cant buy up the T-Bond debt like they usually would because they would have to ask their sugar-daddy (The FED) for liquidity to be able to buy up the T-Bond Bills..Now these T-Bond backed securities of debt have no one buying them up and they will eventually come due,. Take a crazy guess as to what willl happen then?.... Yup thats right, more new currency to be able to High Frequency Algorithmic Trading bots Fueling excessive moves downward due to the nature of which they are coded to use indicators and oscillators that reflect current market momentum and strength. Just as they did during the Crash of 2020. Many of the anchors on MSNBC would frequently discuss/complained about how these HFT Bots were continuing to drive the price down uncontrollably. Overall High Inflation combined from the new Rate Hiikes (1%-3% per quarter), the Consumer Prince Index Inflation (avg. 7.1% ea. month), the Current Currency Supply (physical fiat) inflation (avg 28% YoY) combined with decreased Economic Velocity with force people into another economic indeflation where mass deflation and inflation are being made at the same time -- deflation made by the fear of markets downward trends and consumers reverting to mattress savings of cash, and inflation made by the government creating new incentives for people to apply credit and loans, new stimulus handouts, and any other way they can think of to stimulate the economy and continue to have velocity.. There you have it, a combined analysis of short term and long term price targets, analysis of the market overall plus $PYPL charts specifically, and then a cross analysis of how current and future economic conditions could and would effect the price as well. If you found this helpful, Please remember to leave a Comment, Give this post a like and so you do can get regular updates for my analysis whenever they are posted, Follow me and make sure you have notifications turned on!
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by Gamblers_Paradise
11
Will There Be A Crash in S&P 500 (US Stock Market) From Here?My View Other countries Markets Including Indian Markets has followed US Stock Markets Bull Run. Note- These are my personal views and not investment advice or recommendation. Only for educational Purposes, moreover market is the ultimate king and anyone can go wrong predicting it. DYOR before investing/trading. Since 2000 Each S&P 500 Bull Cycle has gone for 4 to 5 years each giving an average return of (117%) before crashing/correcting Significantly for 4 to 7 Months each. Current Market Bull Run has gone for 2 Years and given a return of nearly 90%. Therefore Markets will sustain the bull run until it remains above Base band and may further continue for another 2 to 3 Years before crashing/correcting and touching the lower band. So According to me markets may not fall significantly until it breaks the base band But There is a Catch. As it has given 90% Return Markets may not move significantly higher instead rise slowly for the remaining part of the bull cycle. Once it crashes due to any fundamental issues and takes support in lower band it will rise again, and the market crash most probably will last around 6 Months (Top To Bottom Formation). So Invest in Quality Stocks For the Rest Of The Bull Run To Be Safe. As Markets will strictly adhere to valuation and quality unlike the last 2 years where every stock rallied significantly.
SP:SPXLong
by tradewidmufeeth
2