BTC - Wondering where it is going, the Elliott's shows youHello traders,
Crazy what happened with the market init?
Well well, we might see the end after the terrible week that is coming....
....Yeah right, the FOMC meeting on the 14th-15th of Junes is not going to please the markets investors...
It is therefore, why today I show you this plan, where we could see even more bearish moves for the BTC and fall to the price of:
25800 (again) for the 61,8% of extension of the WXY which started the 10th November
24000 it's 66,7%
You can check directly on the chart how I decided to sub-count the last downtrend from the 28th March, in a Triangle ABCDE waves
Wave Y extension where I think it could go until 66,7% at maximum
Wave E extension, for the 100% which resonate with the 66,7% zone
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BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
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Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
Crash
BTC Smackdown event 2022 Bulls vs BearsThis is how I see the rest of 2022 playing out. I see next week, last week in June hitting bottom for BTC to about 23K and then flat for a few days before aggressively bouncing as Fireworks go off! July and August will be big rally months for BTC up to 44K or 45K but then economic collapse of stocks and food shortage warnings will hit the world. This will send all stocks and crypto crashing down on or around Sept 2nd we will see this news coming out. Most of us see this anyways. Also with shortage in food, water and gas hitting hard at the start of 2024 as distribution centers report they can not keep up with demand to fill stores because they don't have the supply coming in. Nov and Dec we will see more on TV and News papers about this threat, and right after Christmas it will hit as we ring in the new year. This will be like the the great depression of 1929-39 In fact you can say it started with covid so that puts us almost 3 years in to it, and it will get very bad. The escalation of the UN and allied forces moving closer to Poland and Ukraine is also alarming as Russia basically signs it's demise and fall. So I think this will make Crypto and stocks fall faster then most think. Fear will sell, smart will buy the bottom. Because BTC has a Max number of minted coin, we know it will and has to go up. But here is another thought. What if the NATO starts trading in BTC and stops using USD. Or USD turns crypto and Fiat money is wiped out an attempt to bring the world together economically, to help isolate all communist (Russia China) . War is a booster for sure and ending the USD as the world currency by turning it crypto might keep America the world leader and secure freedom for all NATO. Just thinking outside the box because I believe it will shape how crypto gets excepted as the only funds available as FIAT is abolished. If not a lot of Country's including the US will have to pay back China, and that will never happen IMO. Good luck, stay safe, stock up for a year and never take anything anyone says as financial advice unless you are paying them to do so and never invest or trade more than you can afford to lose.
Euro crash?Euro/usd is heading to .80 or lower massive topping pattern on the monthly. With the fed raising interest rates to hedge inflation we will go into a deflationary time in stocks and the US dollar will inflate to $120+ driving the euro down. Plus shorting euro/usd you will be paid a premium daily.
Everyone Zoom Out! BTC is in an active bull flagI zoomed out 6 months and I've been noticing these two large bull flags that have been forming since as far back as the chart goes back (2014/2015).
If the pattern plays out, then bull flag 1 is currently active and bull flag 2 is waiting to breakout. The two bull flags create a very high target zone (200K +).
If bull flag 2 breaks down, then we have the top of bull flag 1 to be support. We could also just wick down (scare the crap out of everyone) and then close above the bottom of bull flag 2.
I have no idea how this is going to play out. However...
1 We are in an uptrend. The trend is your friend until the end
2 There are two large bull flag patterns (one is active)
3 We are at the support of bull flag 2
4 A retrace to the top of bull flag 1 would be normal market behavior and would be going to test the breakout of a former resistance area (even though it will scare the crap out of everyone and people will say BTC is going to zero).
What do you think?
it can continue like this for a whilebefore Chia could be traded, just a few weeks after the mainnet went live, people where absolute overhyped for no reasons. Thats why the price was way overrated at the features market. I told people that I would expect 20 USD. IMO there is one thing people get wrong with crypto networks again and again. They think that if the network has a big hashrate, or the hasrate rises, that the price will also rise automaticaly. But that's not true. It is mostly the opposite: If the price rises, then the hasrate will rise if it gets profitable for new miners/farmers annd existing miners/farmers to sell coins and reinvest. The demand of a coin and the supply is the only thing wich realy influences the price.
The potential tradeable supply is 3363840 after 1st year. 6727680 after year two (Q1 2023) and 10091520 after year three. The market cap was ~200M for the most of the time the first year. That resulted in a Price of ~ 59 USD after the first year. The market cap was stable in comparison to other coins (but that can change fur sure). If this will stay arround that 200M the price will go down to ~29 USD in Q1 2023 and ~ 19 USD in Q1 2024.
This is not a scientific calculation. Just over the thumb. The markets change, demands and tradeable supply change. (IMO there is also a decrease in supply and demand at the moment)
What I expect:
1. The price falling more. I expect the bottom ~ 5 to 15 USD
2. Decreasing network size of the next year or two
3. A tech market crash within the next two years
What I think is possible:
1. a FOMO bullrun before the crash with up to 10x from current price
2. Market cap could fall below 100M
What Chia needs:
1. Network kept stable
2. Network size to not fall too low
3. Features and -> Adoption
4. Better software and app (IMO it is still unbelivable that it is based on Python)
5. Get into the sustainability discussion as a compromise between decentralised PoW and more centralaised and unsave PoS
6. Sustainable not hyping marketing -> Adoption
Then it can break out of the top and price will rise over time.
Just my 5 Cents
My last chart of BitcoinTrying to make more clearer picture for people to wake up and see the situation from the other side. The psychology of people is the best indicator for markets like crypto. "Culture" of crypto, hype, FOMO for all crypto communities will slowly die because fame doesn't hold long at the top. BTFD worked for some time because every time at some point it will go up, yes? HODL because it will go up and you will still double your money? The job was done and they got a lot of retailers at the top. Yes, at the top. 50k BTC isn't cheap, 40k isn't cheap, 30k isn't cheap. Everybody buys because of FOMO. Cheap is when nobody wants it.
On 3 January 2009 Bitcoin was created, 13 year anniversary going to be. Bitcoin is still young. The 13 number is the worst number in the stock market and I expect to be in crypto. The cycle has to end at some point before it starts the new one.
The stock market 13 year cycles:
2020 - 2007 = 13
2000 - 1987 = 13
1987 - 1974 = 13
Other stock market corrections and crashes which I didn't mention in this, lead to other cycles.
Chart: BTC touched second time in this year Weekly 50MA and every time this happens it leads to 55-70% correction and every time touches Weekly 200MA it leads to another bull market but not going to happen this time I believe.
RSI is exactly at the same level as before other corrections started.
If you are only aware of seeing Bitcoin 100k, you don't need to worry about this post, please keep yourself the nonsense comments.
It's only my view and opinion
GOOD LUCK
Deeper Network DPR Cup & HandleDeeper Network DPR Crypto is starting to have difficulties with BTC trying to pull it down. The Bullish CoinDesk news does not seem to be strong enough. Sadly it looks like it might break bearish tomorrow now.
Websites:
www.deeper.network (DPR Main Equipment Website)
dpr.deeper.network (Mining Rewards after Staking)
www.deeperscan.io (DPR Wallet Lookup)
apps.deeper.network (DPR Crypto Polkadot Parachain Governance System, New Wallet, Smart Contracts Upload, Miner Wallet Info)
www.youtube.com (DPR Videos)
www.fbi.gov (FBI VPN Video)
parachains.info (Deeper Chain Polkadot Parachain Pending)
apps.deeper.network (Deeper Chain Treasury Wallet Address: 5EYCAe5ijiYfyeZ2JJCGq56LmPyNRAKzpG4QkoQkkQNB5e6Z )
-Crypto Whale Information: See the Whale news on my channel for their Wallet address & Location, as you can track for yourself who is a true supporter and who is a dumper…… (AMA said Whales are allowed in the project now)
- Deeper Chain Community Governance - Currently being controlled directly by Deeper Network not by the Community thru a back door in the program (Verified on AMA)
- 7 Validator Nodes on Deeper Chain, 3 have been verified to be in control of by Deeper Network DEVs, apparently they can control votes on the Governance with their locked DPR rewards- Wallet Addresses 1st 5C4vNVT5pDroqufEtXKYp3RKrNXVTHk9yqTeNNUSnJ6EbGGY ; 2nd 5CJDFR5RCMxPwVdzgH6JA9D7M625FEFKrdsJG1JnQVQdQkH2 ; 3rd 5HCG6MvAhYgLZdPoD1BVHEjgKee9n4AhMLKfq64VLiM4znuU
- Burn Wallet: There has not been a routine burn setup yet promised by Deeper to fight inflation. The only burning is est 21DPR perday equivalent to about .80cents per day!!! from the validator Transactions which they are calling a “Routine Burning or Every Gas Fee”. The old burning was every 7 days or so until they slowed it down to every 24 Days thru the Treasury Waiting for Deeper Network to provide Burn Wallet Address for all three Blockchains so the community.
- Polkadot Parachain for Deeper Chain – not yet (Verified by Polkadot Support)
10 Billion DPR Total: 6 Billion DPR will be mined within 25years (Verified on AMA); 4 Billion DPR Belong to Deeper & Investors
Warning: Possible Token Crash Starting in September 2022 thru the next 8 months
Company Info:
Deeper Network of the Marshal Islands (no office location there currently) Crypto Currency, filed on March 8, 2019 Entity number 100333
Deeper Network Inc of Delaware USA (no office location there currently) Software Developer/VPN/DPN, Entity 201816910575 6/14/2018, EIN Tax ID# 841835438
Location Of Head Quartiers Office: The main temp office rental location no longer exists that is advertised and on Entity Documents, supposedly working remotely from home and out of a shipping warehouse since the past two years or longer, unable to verify from the last trip to California. No new permanent office location currently that I am aware of that has been verified.
Location of their servers where data is stored: Unverified, Programmers working from China, ect. , Government Jurisdiction over VPN data information unknown, Privacy VPN info shows data is kept by Deeper Network, time period kept unknown.
(A Few people have come and gone from the head ranks, not sure if currently accurate)
Chief Executive Officer: Hui (Russell) Liu; San Jose, California
Chief Technology Officer: Hui Liu/Chao Ma
Secretary/Chief Financial Officer: Xiaoshuai (Cheryl) Liu ; Maple Ridge, British Columbia, Canada
Corporate Officer: Adam Wolfe
Lei Chang; Saratoga, California
Chief Marketing Officer: Eric Ma (Thailand)
Chief Branding Officer: Yinan S.
Software Developer: Arturo Jimenez
Product manager: Kain Xu
Massive Bull Trap - Nasdaq 100 IndexThe 2022 March low is a massive bull trap, signaled by trend breaks and a monthly RSI divergence. The setup here reminds me of 1987.
Check out the Sqzme DIX index to see the balance of OTC transactions (Over-The-Counter trades, conducted by hedge funds, banks etc).
DIX indicates a bull trap to a scale not seen in over 10 years. Heavy OTC buy-side initiation occurred during the 2022 Feb-March dip, similar to after the Covid low.
DIX has now fallen back to historical averages, without any equivalent sell-side activity occurring. This indicates that a significant number of OTC customers are now trapped in losing positions.
NASDAQ VWAP to 5074 ? Done.Chart show's NQ Monthly price 2002 - present.
Red dotted line: 1 year VWAP +/- 2.5 SD www.investopedia.com
White dotted line: 10yr VWAP, and the white band is+2.5 SD
10yr VWAP today is at 5074 (thus the title) while price
Is it reasonable to suggest NQ may drop to it's 10yr VWAP, to 5074?
Yes, it's a plausible expectation because.
It's happened before (2002 and 2008).
Every year price has followed its 10yr VWAP, albeit from 2.5 SD above.
There's a fundamental narrative that allows for just such a drop.
Is this certain?
No. Because:
At the end of VWAP's period (10yr, 1yr, Q, M, W, D, etc) its calculation starts afresh with volume=0. For example the red dotted 1yr VWAP gaps to price (up/down) every January 1st. Therefor alternative outcomes include:
1. Price remains 2.5 SD above VWAP until Jan 1st 2030, then gaps-to price.
2. If price comes down slowly over a multi period, the 10yr VWAP will rise (as lower prices get averaged in) until they meet far above 5000.
Notes:
NQ futures, first contract continuous.
VWAP's SD may not be valid at this TF. The 10yr VWAP's lower band quickly drops below zero. That said, the +2.5 band has been very useful over the last 12 years.
Finding a useful solution is left as an exercise for the reader. (Hint: Percentage)
XBI outlook on future medicine We see it in our favorite sci fi movies: the cure for cancer, biotech armor, mind altering substances to enhance intelligence, so on so forth. Assuming this index is the representation of biotech importance, I'd like to hear ideas for how biotech would crash. Everything we've seen from the movies can be reasons for an increase in price.. but what would cause the destruction of biotech funding? Is it even possible? If we want to achieve space exploration.. how could biotech ever fail? Thanks.
$UVXY 24 hours max! in and out 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
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THE ROOF IS ON FIRE but 💯 MAJOR OPPORTUNITY⚠️This is the song that came in mind when I checked prices this morning:
Lyrics
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Hello, my name is Jimmy Pop and I'm a dumb white guy
I'm not old or new, but middle school, fifth grade, like junior high
I don't know mofo, if y'all peeps be buggin' givin' props to my hoe 'cause she fly
But I can take the heat 'cause I'm the other white meat known as "Kid funky fried"
Yea, I'm hung like planet Pluto, hard to see with the naked eye
But if I crashed into Uranus, I would stick it where the sun don't shine
'Cause I'm kind of like Hans Solo, always stroking my own wookie
I'm the root of all that's evil, yea, but you can call me Cookie
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Yo, yo
This hardcore ghetto gangster image takes a lot of practice
I'm not black like Barry White, no I am white like Frank Black is
So if man is five and the devil is six than that must make me seven
This honkey's gone to heaven
But if I go to Hell, well then I hope I burn well
I'll spend my days with J.F.K., Marvin Gaye, Martha Raye and Lawrence
Welk
And Kurt Cobain, Kojak, Mark Twain and Jimi Hendrix's poltergeist
And Webster yea Emmanuel Lewis 'cause he's the Antichrist
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Allow me to be cool with this...
All is see is :💯 MAJOR OPPORTUNITY⚠️
the FXPROFESSOR
Bull? Bear? Swan?
The chart:
Shows an index average for SPX, NAS and DOW using rescaled CFD and futures prices.
Indicator is a momentum oscillator (midline) with an envelope much like a Bollinger band.
The paradox:
The consensus is the chart is a picture of 'doom' (as bearish as it gets).
At the same time, every trader in the chat room was bullish on the upcoming 12 hours. Not a single bear.
The assumption that recent outcomes will be repeated is also called "The Hot Hand" .
Both chart and traders refer to the same asset class. The chart accurately describes what traders experienced. Same information, but divergent conclusions and sentiment.
Why the gap?
One contributing factor is likely the qualitative difference between looking at a chart, and trading that same market in real time.
Research shows that when we "experience" outcomes ourselves we pay more attention to the most recent, frequent and impactful outcomes. This does not happen if we get the same information on a chart, from a discussion, or the news.)
In his book "The Black Swan", Nassim Taleb attributes peoples 'black swan blindness' (pp.77) to never *experiencing* an event, even if the information is available in some descriptive format (like a chart). There is a similar discussion in the chapter on rare events (ch.30) in Kahneman's book "Thinking fast. and slow" .
Lastly, lab studies from economics, finance and psychology provide data for both predictive and descriptive models. These models can be used to predict how personal experience with risk will result in different sentiment that a simple description of the same information. Some of this research is summarized in a Psych-Science paper at: pure.mpg.de
Notes:
This way they can share the same USD scale and
are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see: www.barchart.com ).
In basketball there is a belief that a player can be on a hot-streak and more likely to score. Despite the compelling belief, statistical studies show it to be false. The same can be said for consecutive sessions in the equity markets. On a whole the market is largely efficient thanks to our relentless effort to remove every last inefficiency.