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US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
🔥 Stock Market Copying 2008: Will Crypto Crash Again?Over the last couple of weeks we've seen a lot of bullishness return to the markets. When I look at my own analyses they've been predominantly bullish. While I believe that there are reasons to be bullish in the short-term, the longer-term remains cloudy for both the stock and crypto markets. Now to the analysis. In 2008 we saw: - A downsloping trend line with 3 touches. The last touch was the start of the market crash. - A bear market rally of ~12% once oil topped. - A 48% crash in three months after the third touch of the trend line. In 2022 we see: - A downsloping trend line with 2 touches. Currently extremely close to the third touch. - A bear market rally of ~21% once oil topped. "History Never Repeats Itself, But It Often Rhymes" It's difficult to predict the future by only looking at historical events, but the similarities between 2008 and 2022 are very real and can signal the potential for a further decline. With September and October historically being the worst months in mid-term election years, I think it's very possible that we're going to see more bearish price action. As for crypto, the story will likely be the same since BTC follows the stockmarket. As seen on the picture below, BTC is still trading inside a bear flag. Bear flags tend to break bearish. Whether we're going to make new lows below $17.5k remains to be seen. Nevertheless, we should prepare for the worst outcome in case we see another >40% decline in the stock markets. If the stock markets will crash this much I wouldn't even be surprised if we will trade below $10k. Like mentioned before, it's hard to predict what will happen. Being aware of different potential scenarios can never hurt.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by FieryTrading
17
The Big Wall Street ShortIs it even possible to predict when a Black Swan event will happen? Is it impossible to time the market in that manner? This is what I will be attempting today , trying to time a stock market crash using fibonacci time dates in Bitcoin and the Dow. I think Bitcoin is a really important tool for world events , it's been running at a constant rate for more than 10 years now ,nothing shows human emotion more than Bitcoin and because of that I have been able to find amazing fibonacci time dates that can predict future marco events in Bitcoin which happen to line up with stock market moves. The Dow Jones fibonacci time dates are much harder to find , there is 100 years of data to go through so over the years I have tried to find the gold fibonacci time sequence but have failed to find a macro sequence with any significance. I do have two Fibonacci sequences that I’m currently following that could show us major macro events in the Dow jones. The first is the one you see on the chart above is the 0.618 happens to be the candle after a weekly all time high candle in the first week of January 2022, which was a major pivot to the downside. The next date in this sequence is 1.618 at the end of February 2023 which as you can see on the chart happens to be the date the Gann Fann and the rising wedge cross. The fact is that the Dow Jones is currently in a massive rising wedge ,it is the largest rising wedge in Dow jones history , I have gone over 100 years of price action and I have yet to find one this big. If this wedge breaks we could be in for the classic 50% historical market crash , on average the Dow Jones dumps about 50% during these events that can last over a year. So far we seem to be setting up for one of those crashes , let's have a look at past crashes. 2008 This market crash was 54% and took 504 days to play out , price declined 17% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1973 This market crash was 46% and took 623 days to play out , price declined 19% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1937 This market crash was 50% and took 392 days to play out , price declines 16% in this case then bounce and we get a perfect rejection at 8/1 Gann Fann. 1929 (Great Depression ) This market crash was the largest in history and was much more volatile but the pattern was still the same. We first get the drop then the bounce and a rejection of the 8/1 Gann Fann. So as you can see when we set up for these crashes we get a drop somewhere from 16-20% before a bounce and that is exactly what is happening right now , we dropped 20% and bounced , the stage is being set for a massive crash once this rising wedge breaks. The question is now when? Well for now have the 1.618 Fib date end of February 2023 that could be the date we would start to see a pivot down for the Dow Jones and start its crash down to 18000 area, this zone is exactly 50% from all time high which lines up with every other crash it also happens to be the bottom of the covid crash. I go over the idea of a big crash coming in this TA below , where I go over a very similar fractal pattern playing out around the time of the great depression. There is no denying that this fractal pattern is eerily similar to the great depression and the Dow Jones currently hit the 3.618 Fib level so pulling back to 18-19k will also line up with 1.618. If you zoom out you could see that the Dow is currently in a massive ascending channel. Whenever we get close to the top of the channel we find a lot of resistance or decade long consolidation . So using Bitcoin Fibonacci dates and two different Dow Jone dates I have narrowed down the possible potential window of when this crash will start. Late February to Late July 2023 this move could start happening ,it could look something like this : If this did unfold, where would Bitcoin be? Bitcoin has never been through a stock market crash of 50% and we already hit capitulation right? Well yes and no ,Bitcoin has two capitulation events before going back to all time high as you can see below. Now what happens is these two capitulation events is that we create a double bottom ,so it basically retests the first capitulation lows but after discovering what could happen in the Dow jones I believe that Bitcoin could put in its first ever lower low in the second capitulation phase which would look something like this sometime end of july 2023. So come late February 2023 we get a rejection off the 8/1 Gann Fann and we break the rising wedge , prepare for the worst and also the biggest short position of your life.
TVC:DJIShort
by Sporia
14
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
Sell high pressure/Recession fearsAs we all know about everyone is talking about the recession. Looking forward NAS&US30 forward a big drop of a crash.. the economy is slowing down and recession still hold above 40 year all time high. Which means we are already and had been in the recession. Biden and the White House declined twice and economic isn’t going well. Monkeypox global emergency declared as well and spread all over the globe faster rapidly. Nas should be heading down 10K
FX:NAS100Short
by JoyBoyVegae
7
SPX ~6000 if this time is not differentThe SPX chart has 2 goals and one constraint: Demonstrate the VIX / VVIX ratio as an inverse momentum indicator for SPX. The VIX is risk adjusted" by VVIX and the ratio is more useful than VIX alone. "Useful" is similar to 'Statistical Power' and means less data required to identify smaller changes amidst higher volatility. Suggest that an ATH of SPX 6000 is "not unreasonable" considering the pattern and magnitude of prior large moves (corrections, bear markets, and very large dips) . . . Unless this time is different.
TVC:VIX
by gb50k
2
Housing Market Boom / Crash Statistical AnalysisHousing market's median home value (for new homes) peaked 2 months ago at $457k. Total growth leading up to that point over the last 59 years, since 1963, was $439.3k. The last two years accounts for a significant portion of all growth, while the last two growth periods displayed more growth than all of which occurred during the 44 year period between 1963 and 2007 12.4% of all growth has been lost in the last 61 days, or 37% of what was gained in the last 2 years. Following the bailouts in 2008 we began to see recovery across markets, but starting around 2010 an exaggerated period of growth began. After the covid pandemic flash crash, that exaggerated growth skyrocketed, leading to an unsustainable market economy, especially in housing. The losses we've seen over the last 61 days may indicate the beginnings of an extended period of severe loss if markets are left to correct naturally, if not artificially bailed out yet again.
FRED:MSPNHSUSShort
by dudebruhwhoa
1
Might be a Bearish day on GDP newsHey guys, Just and trade idea on the back of a massively strong day which nearly always gives it back the next day so i wouldn't be a buyer right now. I'm more on the side of shorting for another down day before the markets go to the higher long term down trend boundary. We have GDP numbers coming out and I don't see how they will be good must likely negative and recession confirmed hence why the white house wants to change the definition. Apple and amazon earning are the only wildcards, they could pull the market higher as most of big tech have rallied after earnings. The VIX & VXN both look ready to blast higher tho charts below. This gives me more of a downside bias and with 3-1 risk to reward worth taking. Please like and follow for more ideas and trade setups
UShort
by jackwheeler
The Next Housing Crash will be Catastrophic - Prepare Now!American and international corporations are keeping a large number of properties off the market as investments. These unoccupied flats limit supply in sought locations, creating an artificial scarcity as a result of central bank policies that finally caused an Everything Bubble. The number of corporate purchases of houses has increased dramatically. This has fueled demand in market, but if rental income fall as a result of the recession, corporate purchasers will start liquidating those same assets. As mortgage rates are rising, people are having a difficult time to allocate their income towards mortgage payments especially in times where rising food inflation is also a major problem for majority of Americans and if unemployment rates goes slightly higher then mortgage default will occur on a national scale, leading to another catastrophic housing crisis. In one of our previous analysis we stated, how inflation will peak at 12% and in case of a recession it is certain that inflation will stay on it's trajectory to peak while, Home prices will start correcting. Demand and Supply comparison between U.S Population growth and overall Nonfarm payroll employees against total housing unit supply Listing count of houses actively on sale have increased significantly in June by 18.74% According to the MBA's Refinance Mortgage Applications Index, applications for mortgages refinance fell 5.7% in June and have fallen by 70% year on year to the lowest level since 2000. PPI for Construction material have increased by almost 50% since 2021, forcing builders to shrink margins by 10-12% Conclusion: Since owning a home is becoming increasingly costly, it is prudent to rent one because real estate prices will soon begin to correct. NOTE: Cost of Farmland which have adequate water supply will continue rising due to current geopolitical situation. To leave this analysis on a positive note, We have picked an undervalued stock for you, Unity Software Inc. (NYSE:U) Looking at the future, their is one aggressive company that should be in every tech growth investor's portfolio which have the potential to outpace market, Unity Game engine can render ultra-realistic graphics, The next decade will of The uncanny valley and unity software plays a major role in it, Unity software are down 70% this year and trading 40% below their IPO value, The stock is currently at discount and from a long-term prospective and we believe that it will provide 80% return within 24 months making it a best buying opportunity. To this wonderful community, Be safe and be prepared, Thank you. ❤️
ECONOMICS:USCSHPI
by EQTSHARES
4
Big Shifts for Indices incoming Hey Guys, The US100 just broke out of its consolidation pattern and currently retesting should bounce off or coil during this intense week of earnings and news. As shown, I expect the price to retest the downtrend resistance line in yellow but it's a strong trend line and has the 200-day ma that will push them down. We Have so many indicators showing we are going to have more volatility coming. As shown below we have a head and shoulders pattern on the US10Y, we are hitting trend lines on the VXN & VIX, Silver is still falling and all major us indices have a bearish engulfing candle. So my belief is that we will roughly follow the trend outlined (A-Y) hitting our last leg down then possibly if gold and silver find support and the DXY hits its trend line again pushing it down the US markets could bull hard out of the downtrend as inflation price pressures are calming down ( Commodity prices and excess stock ) coming into play just like what happened during the 1970s. I don't think the economy or the stock market is out of the woods when it comes to inflation though like all inflation cycles it comes in waves and progressively gets worse each inflation pulse greater than the last. But there will be periods of relief in between these pulses, when we hit that Y leg look for divergence on the RSI, strong rejection off the support line of the downtrend, Silver and gold bulling, Vix & VXN overextending, Bond yields continue to fall, DXY falling. These will be the signal that we will bull out of this downtrend and wait for the next inflation spike probably start-mid 2023. Keep an eye out for contagion with Sri Lanka, According to the UN there are up to 69 countries all facing a similar Debt crisis that could lead to civil unrest and with the war in Ukraine not stopping anytime soon food and energy security is extremely fragile for these nations. Im going to be posting Charts on the silver/gold, US10Y, DXY,AUD/USD as well expressing these point more.
UShort
by jackwheeler
Critical Period for the Markets - To Buy or Not to BuyNot accounting for any fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD and the OANDA:US30USD had a strong rejection from heading lower in 3 consecutive weeks. Fundamentals will be required to decide whether the market is moving back to a long term BUY. We hit a low of ~-20% from the highs on the DJIA and ~ -25% from the highs on the S&P500. On multiple time frames, prices are in a key area. From technical analysis on the daily chart: 1) potentially a double top was forming but did not break the neckline 2) then a double bottom is forming and now we're waiting to see if it breaks the neckline, which is also a major resistance 3) the double bottom formation was pushed up from a 1D demand area, which is also a 1M demand area. Looking at the candle on a weekly chart, it shows a pretty strong rejection. 1) Price printed a lower low vs the previous week at 3721.6 vs 3741.6 2) Previous week was a bullish candle, and this week we have a bearish candle closing in the body of the previous week's candle. 3) Strong rejection candle printed on 14 Jul 2022 with huge wick, followed buy a very strong bullish candle 4) We're facing a resistance zone that was tested multiple times but failed to break. I am expecting a potential fake out for price below 3950, but if candle closes higher, I think we can call buys. (purely based on technical analysis) With fundamentals, we could be more sure of the probability of how the market will move.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
5
Unexpected +100% - maybe more pump, or a dump back to realityI rly did not expect the XCH USD price to rise quickly that much. Maybe it happend because of the low volume and because the two quick dumps before and therefore the sell pressure was low. The general downtrend is still intact. I am curious if and when we will see a retest of the resistance arround 30 USD and if it can hold. I am also very curious how high the price can rise. I still expect a decreasing price below 20 USD in mid term because of the high supply before the first halving will happen in ~ Q1 2024. But we will see. At the moment farming is still not covering the costs for many people, even with the still decreasing netspace. This could result in more farmers to hodl and waiting for higher prices to sell at and therefore lower the real supply at the market. And AFAIK there are no major announcements in the pipeline for rly big unique features or new industrial, financial or state partners. I also don't expect the company to go public within the current global market situation. As always: No financial advice, just my thoughts.
by Just4FunTrader
Home-Builders DROP WORSE THAN 2008 - Canary in the Mine screamsLast Time The National Home Builders Index Dropped repeatedly - The 2008 Market CRASH and Deep Recession happened right after. And Now It has Dropped Sharpest in its History. The Canary is the Builder sentiment - Dropped to 55, a drop of 12 points. This is the largest single-month drop ever, with one exception. The exception being April 2020. As you may recall, the world had decide to shut down at exactly that time. Or is it the Scream of the Crashing Market ?
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by cure4virus
Follow through US30 analysis against 2008 crashCould it be that market cycles are shorter now, versus back then in 2008? Also, we probably have more participants in the market now compared to prior years. More investors, traders as it has become more accessible. More people learnt from 2008 crash to buy the dips on indexes like the S&P as there is a very high probability of it only going higher. But, here's what I mapped out on the 1D chart from 2008 crash versus the 1D chart now. Could we be in a period of consolidation at point 6? or are we only at the tail end of point 5? Could market take a turn for the worse with recession? Or are all the scares just not coming through in numbers? Indeed, we came close to a key level of pre-covid highs. But, I would still be calling for sells based on technical analysis, but will have to wait for confirmation. There is also a probability for continued upside.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
1