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Copper

THREAD #2 : Commodities Update ‼️How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" As I've already done ideas on copper last months, let's start with it. COPPER ✅ First of all, if you follow my ideas you can see it's the same chart than the 29th of December when I posted it and the 20th of January for the trade. It is attached under and I invit you to see it because it will be the continuation of these analysis. So we are always in the Wyckoff Accumulation which have been developped, pullback on creek is done, and SOS too. Unfortunetly SOS failed so for me it's an end of the pattern. By consequence major part of my position have been closed and I will explain next why I keep a little which I not do usually. Why SOS is a fail ? Simply because we have selling volume, on the resistance area, on a primary resistance (yellow line) and because we have also selling pressure in it. The work have been done for the pattern, we took profit but can't project anymore in a term of "Wyckoff accumulation" of a bull continuation. So what to expect now from it ? The standard expectation after a failed SOS is to go back on the support area, usely rapidly and strongly, and invert the pattern in a way that we will now test the buying strenght on support. So we can expect a retest of support with an SOS to see, if it succeed, a bear continuation. That my scenario (a), and technically the most probable for me. BUT we have to live with our time and with the macroeconomic dynamic that we deal with. I will not hide that if the conflict between Russia-Ukraine continu and maybe gets worse, this will be a boost for every metals assets. That why I closed only 80% of my position, I can't advise to take long position anymore but it's could be wise to take profit and keep a part of your position if you are already in it. We can handle the technics evolutions but we can't handle the macroeconomic evolutions. If it this scenario (b) happen, we will see the construction of an LPS around $4.60 before to break up to the target around $5.70 in a first time. Take care of volatility, it will swing. GOLD ✅ Like for the copper, the chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now. For peoples already exposed on it, if it continu is bull movement and breakout the resistance area, we will be in price discovery so it's always hard to find targets in it because of volatility, but I don't expect it to go higher than $2,500 - $2,600 where we will probably find a big selling pressure. SILVER ✅ Like targeted in the last commodities update we are now on resistances of the downward channel. I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20 (scenario B). And finally if we see a reject of (2a) / (1b) soon, we could expect a short consolidation to (2b) before to go back again to the resistance area (scenario C). Like every metals, It would be dumb to expose yourself on the bear side in a period of conflict. More wise to wait consolidation and signals around the orange circles areas. PALLADIUM ✅ Palladium is another successfull prediction we had in the last commodities update. In term of evolution now it is very close from the copper analysis because we made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b). If the macroeconomic dynamic bring it higher we could see an interesting area to enter on a buying signal on the pullback on (1b) (scenario B). Else we could go straight to (1c) around $4,500 - $4,600 before to see a strong selling pressure on price discovery. PLATINUM ✅ Platinum is also targeting the prediction of the last update. In term of perspective now it's more blurry for it. The most interesting pattern that we could see is for me a reject of (2a) to go down to (2b) which could be a nice entry on signal around $950. Else, probabilities to see it continu on the bull side are strong but I'm not confident on any areas, except the support of $860, to target entries once we will reach the resistance area of $1,340 - $1,270. CRUDE OIL ✅ I said in last update : "If I had an advice to give : stay away or be on short timeframe on this asset. Too much risk to see price manipulated by news on this public interest asset." and so after +30% in a week we have to look back on montly timeframe to search resistances. I believe in the fact that it will fall as rapidly as it surged and I also believe in the fact that we will not stay a long time at this level. Oh .... wait ! Just don't take care of what I just said, like the last commodities update it's just a manipulated asset and price will go where OPEP want to see it. So stay away of it. For those who really want my technical analysis it is : I think we can do an ATH just to say : "It's all time high !" but we will find a strong selling pressure because of (1b) and fall down rapidly. WHEAT ✅ Similar to oil technically, boosted by the macroeconomic context we did a new ATH and seen a strong selling pressure. However I don't think it's wise to sell it. We totally outbreak the range we was looking to in the last update, now if we break the resistance it could go really high but you will be attached to macroeconomic news so I advise to also stay away of it in both side.Take profits if you are exposed on it. SUGAR ✅ Rectification from the last update : we are always in the Wyckoff reaccumulation. I thought it failed because of the candle of the 10th of January but it seems to be an anomaly of market and the structure around the 28th of February confort me in the fact that it is a spring. Now we have jumped over the creek so the best area to target entry is, like for the copper pattern, the pullback on the creek. It's exactly the same pattern that we had on copper now, so just wait signals. If it go straight without pullback just let it go and don't buy in the resistance area before a breakout, there is a lot of resistances which will bring many pressure I think for the SOS. 🛑 Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! 🛑
COMEX:HG1!
by Kentg
26
One of the best spot of 2022 already here AND commodities updateFirst this idea is attached to another idea I've posted last year, you can find it attached to this one and it explain all the pattern we are working here: the Wyckoff Reaccumulation on Copper (HG1!). So you will find here, my entry, my plan for this trade and the update about the related idea. I will also do an update about the materials market, expectations and targets in form of a thread in comment so don't forget to follow the idea to see it. So first the update of the related idea. I said for the end of the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern that I didn't expect a spring, and my poisition about it is always the same. It will be interesting to see if buying volumes continues to grow, but if it's the case it will be the confirmation of that statement. For the moment, I think we are targeting the resistance area and an SOS to see if we could expect the confirmation of the global pattern and so a bullish continuation. I also said that I will aim for an entry on the retest of the creek. Retest happened exactly on the January 6th for the bottom and I didn't find interesting setup to entry on it, so that why I waited a little to find a setup that could satisfied my interest: We can see on chart two channel, which have already both gave their target (a is the base support, b is the resistance, c is the target). What interest me here is the reaction on the pullback of (b) resistances of each one. Pullback on (2b) is a perfect V-Turn and pullback on (1b) is an accumulation (I would have preferred if it was an U-Turn but we have an akward double bottom in it). The structure in volume in this accumulation range is good, we have nice exhaust volume before, buying volumes are bigger than selling volumes (that what we want in a range and also when volumes are impacted by sessions to read them, typically on hourly timeframe) and to finish we have a nice breakout with buying volumes so the setup is completed. Now in term of plan, in a question of regularity in profitability, I'm looking for a ratio of 2:1 which bring us in the resistance area (which is good with our plan of Wyckoff pattern which expect an SOS around here). Exception here, because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern I don't expect a full target, but only around 40%, then 20% on the first SOS and to finish (if the SOS setup is convincing of course, else it will be out before) last 40% on the 1st objective of the Wyckoff pattern around $5.688 . It's really important to take multiple profit when you are on long term timeframe. The more you are on market the more there is risk to see change in patterns, in dynamic macroeconomic ... And so, less your probability of success is high. So take profit, fix targets/price and don't be afraid to take profit at the top, don't wait market to fall back. Else, secure your earnings, you can't lose money on winning trade! That why for my trades, I'm mostly breakeven at 1:1 ratio. Another time, I invite you to check the first idea I posted, attached to this one. Now I think we made the turn for copper, if you have questions be free to ask me in comments. I will now update the idea with other commodities perspectives. I will comment only those where I have identify patterns in my strategy with area to target for entry. I think metals assets will be one of the key of 2022, most of charts are well oriented to see bullish progression, macro-economically it is also oriented in that way.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Kentg
New Century Resources Optimistic TimesNew Century Resources steps into optimistic times. With the equity raise done, they are practically debt free, shortly before break even, Zinc prices are high and treatment charges are low, considering paying dividend, consolidated the share price to a better looking number, likely starting to mine copper is Tasmania soon, discovered more resources on their local turf. Not even considering these facts, the stock was highly undervalued before the equity raise. Just need enough people realize that the 2022 target price should be around 4.5AUD - 6AUD instead of the current 1.99AUD. The trend is visible on the chart..
NLong
by danimen
1
Jiangxi Copper (USA: $JIAXF) Could See A New Peak In 2022 ⛰️Jiangxi Copper Company Limited engages in exploring, mining, smelting, and refining copper in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It offers copper cathodes, copper rods and wires, sulphuric acid, and other products, as well as deposit, loan, guarantee, and financing consultation services. It is involved in the processing and sale of copper and hardware electric products; collection and sale of scrap metals; production and sale of non-ferrous metals, rare metals and non-metals, electrolytic copper foil, spiral and copper tubes, copper and enameled wires, other copper pipe products, and cast iron grinding balls; provision of repair, consulting, and transportation services; exploration, mining, selection, and smelting of gold and chemical; project, industrial, and fund investment, investment management, and investment and economic information advisory services; metallurgical chemistry; equipment manufacturing and maintenance activities; and development and production of thermo-electronic semiconductors and appliances. In addition, it engages in the development of chemical technologies; contracting for mining constructions; production and sale of casting products; maintenance of mechanical and electrical equipment; installation and debugging of equipment; sale of building materials; production of copper sulfate and electrolytic copper; scrap of base metals; and geological investigation and survey, and construction and engineering measurement. Further, it is involved in the sale of mineral processing, fine chemical, and other industrial and domestic products; trading of metal products; machinery processing; manufacture and sale of wear resistant materials; corporate asset and operation management, exhibition services, etc.; and trade and settlement of import-export business, offshore investment and financing, cross-border RMB settlement, and research and development activities. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Nanchang, China.
OTC:JIAXFLong
by DEXWireNews
COPPER is one of the best investments on a 2 year basisInvestors looking for value long-term better have a look at Copper, which has been consolidating ever since its May 2021 All Time High (ATH). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting all this time, indicating that the market has found a new long-term demand zone where buyers step in. The last time a similar demand level on the 1W MA50 took place was half-way through Copper's historic parabolic rally of the 2000s. In particular, in February 2004, the market made a similar High (red flag), then turned sideways into a +1 year accumulation period, when again the 1W MA50 was supporting. Eventually that demand level initiated the last and more aggressive part of this rally during 2005-2006. The 1W RSI sequences between the accumulation phases of today and 2004 are also identical. The 2006 rally peaked a little higher than the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should be a solid benchmark for long-term investors looking for value. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
1
Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Copper! Macro series pt4Part 4 This is the fourth part of the macro analysis series. In this part we'll focus on analyzing the current situation of the commodities market based on fundamental and technical analysis, while trying to map out the future depending on how the Fed and the economy move. The key focus here will be on Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Copper. You can find the rest of the analysis on the links down below. The final component of our analysis will be some major commodities and more specifically Oil, Natural Gas, Copper and Gold. Oil and Natural gas have played a huge role in the inflation story as both of them have risen dramatically over the last 1-1.5 years. Oil and Natural gas are the largest component of determining energy prices, while energy prices are pretty much an input to every economic calculation. Therefore, the clearer the outlook on the energy sector, the clearer our outlook on inflation. At the moment Oil is in a very strong and clean bullish uptrend, with 100$+ oil in the next few months or years being possible. When it comes to oil, on the one hand demand is slightly below what it was in Jan 2020 and is expected to keep dropping, while on the other hand production is lower than what it was back then. Demand was actually pretty low for many years post GFC relative to what it was before the GFC, and the bad financial conditions indicate that we won’t have a major change there for the foreseeable future. In terms of supply, the 3 key components are 1. OPEC+ deciding to keep output low 2. Many producers going bankrupt in the bear market and especially in the April 2020 crash and banks not lending to oil producers, 3. Many oil wells haven’t been re-opened since that crash because it takes a while to do so, but also because of all the ESG mandates. Due to the ‘green movement’ there are less explorations, drills and overall operations of oil wells, something that isn’t going to change any time soon. Pretty much the same goes for Natural gas too, even though the situation there is a bit different, at least for Europe. In Europe its price went up 36x in just 18 months, as more and more people had been lured in the trap of low prices, thinking they will stay low forever. Well, let’s say that that was never the case, especially when Europe is getting most of its natural gas from Russia, a country with which it has had tensions historically. Won’t get into the politics as to what is going on Europe and Russia at the moment, but focus on the fact that higher energy prices have been a huge problem for the world and especially Europe, as they’ve destroyed a lot of wealth. Energy prices going higher, which seems to be the case based on the charts could inflict even more damage. On the bright side however both Oil and Natural gas might not be far off from putting a major top in. Based on technical analysis, crude oil prices are overbought and are showing signs of divergence, while there is plenty of resistance in the 90-100$ range. Natural gas prices in Europe went parabolic in such a fashion, that it is hard to imagine the pressures will continue, especially as we are half way through the winter and demand for NatGas will go down… naturally. Everyone is slowly moving to other sources of energy, and this could be potentially why oil keeps going higher, while Natural gas both in the US & Europe got cheaper. The difference between NatGas prices in Europe and US is stark as European prices are insanely higher, so at the moment it looks like prices in the US could appreciate significantly, while in Europe they could chop for a bit and then start going down in the spring. To sum up the energy outlook, higher energy prices are actually likely in the short term, so they could push the Fed even more to raise rates, but in the medium to long term we could see Oil go back down to 50-60$ before it shoots up again. Let’s now close with the major metals, Gold and Copper. Gold had started rallying since Sep 2018, when bond yields started coming down while the Fed was hiking rates. Then it kept rallying and in August 2020 in made new ATHs and broke the 2000$ mark. At that point everyone thought Gold would go to 3000-5000$ due to the Fed doing QE and keep interest rates low. Little did they know, as the Fed doesn’t print money and Gold was the biggest proof that the inflation in 2021 wasn’t really caused by fiscal or monetary policy. Some could say that gold had rallied enough, buy the rumor sell the news, the crypto stole its thunder and so on... and although these might have played a role, they still don’t explain how gold hasn’t really moved for more than a year. Now as real rates are going higher, Gold could go down significantly, something confirmed by technical analysis as it is looking pretty weak. It failed miserably to get back above its ATHs and that failed ATH breakout seems to have been a bull trap. On its chart vs the USD we can see 2 major areas with some double/triple/quadruple bottoms that are ready to be broken, as well as the 1300-1400 breakout zone that was never retested. At the moment it is still holding and there is hope for Gold, so maybe investors betting on a policy error is what could revive gold from here. Breaking and closing below the current diagonal support would be bearish, but closing below 1670 would be very bearish. Until it closes above 1940, we remain neutral/bearish. Copper had a really huge rally from its March 2020 lows, one that was bigger than that of Gold, despite the fact that it took Copper about 9 extra months to break its ATHs. Some interesting facts are that Copper essentially had no pullbacks for months, but like Gold, once it broke above its ATHs it fell back down and chopping right below its ATHs. This could be yet another example as to how a drop in production, as well as increased demand due to Copper usage in the ‘green revolution’, were able to make Copper skyrocket. However, someone could attribute this and the rise of other commodities to speculation, in a similar fashion like in the aftermath of the GFC. We have a major shock; markets have a massive dump, the Fed starts talking about printing money, everyone panics and starts speculating on commodities, and all that while several producers have gone offline. Once the supply and demand imbalances start clearing out, once speculative money stops running in and the government/Fed stimulus runs out, markets roll over. Of course, back then China played a major role in the rise of some commodities, but now even them, the world’s largest producer seems to have slowed down. The second largest economy in the world is in big trouble, and there is no way this doesn’t affect the rest of the world heavily. Again, Copper has some interesting dynamics, and is also affected by ESG mandates, as the ‘green advocates’ are fighting against oil or copper producers because mining is damaging the environment, yet they actually need those things to build the tools to facilitate the green revolution. When it comes to comparing Gold’s and Copper’s charts, it is clear that Copper looks a lot more bullish than Gold. Both of them are sitting below their 2011 ATHs, though Copper is sitting above its 2006-2008 highs and somebody could call its consolidation since May bullish. It does look a bit like a penant, so a close above 5% could send the price to 8-9$. However, in the case of major turbulence in the macro environment, it could dump and head down to 3-3.7$.
TVC:USOIL
by BitcoinMacro
45