Get started

Copper

Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions. One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish. Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top. Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear: This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run. Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep. Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in. More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot: Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month: September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher. September is not likely to finish in a straight line down. What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed. Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now. The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before. The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere. Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe. WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid. Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy. But for how much longer? A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard. VIX - 9x8 = 72 The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often. Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from. But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out. And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party . When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see. If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation. How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that? Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
COMEX:HG1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Copper Potential for bullish momentumOn H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the sell entry at 3.6069, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance to the take profit at 3.6774, where the previous swing high and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 3.5349, where the swing lows are. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance :3.5000 Pivot:3.4735 Support : 3.4170 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price pullback from the support, breaking the descending trendline, MA10 is above MA30, combined with the fundamental news, we have a short term bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 3.4735, where the current price is to the 1st resistance at 3.5000 where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the support at 3.4170, where the swing lows are. Fundamentals: Because of Chinese administration, the decline in copper production in Peru, and a steep fall in the DXY, copper shows a pull back trend from the support.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Genesiv
XCUUSD - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
XShort
by Tradelikemee
Copper Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn h4, with the price breaking the descending trendline and there is a golden cross, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 3.4507, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the take profit at 3.5515, where the50% fibonacci retracement and previous swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 3.3749, where the swing low is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
COPPER Potential for Bearish DropOn H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 3.3747, where the swing low and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the take profit at 3.2362, where the swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 3.4543, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERShort
by VantageMarkets
XCUUSD - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
XShort
by Tradelikemee
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows. However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week. Key macro events of the week: China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%). In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession. Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over. Copper technical analysis A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover. A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June. After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now. Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Copper Futures (M6E1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 3.6500 Pivot: 3.5315 Support : 3.4115 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline and ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.5315, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 3.4115, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.6500, where the pullback resistance is. Fundamentals: The copper price fell as the market worries about demand in China surfaced due to weak economic data and a firmer dollar. Meanwhile, Chinese property developers sharply cut investment in July, while new construction starts suffered their biggest fall in nearly a decade.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv