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Consolidation

BTC: MUST BOUNCE FROM HERE!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this quick BTC update. BTC is consolidating inside a channel between the $18.5k-$20.5k level from the last 1 month. Currently, the price is still holding the support of the $19.2k level. I'm expecting a bounce up to $20.4k from here. If the price close below the $19.2k level then we might see again the $18.5k level. Let's see how the price will react on weekend. Happy weekend to all of you. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
17
eu short call from fx chat and a little educationi haven't posted an "idea" in a while; they're tedious a bit of a time waster often, but they're good to do; i'll have a little fun with this one but will have to leave it somewhat incomplete because... time; incomplete or not, this still ended up being a bit lengthy STARTING THE WEEK WITH A VP (VOLUME PROFILE) POC ANALYSIS since the beginning of the week, i had been calling short for eu ( EURUSD ) while the price action from the end of the previous week was bullish; i based my bearish sentiment on the previous weekly POC being naked with two other naked daily POCs below the weekly open; (if you don't know POC , learn about volume profiles; "POC" stands for point of control; it's the price range or single price where the highest volume of trading occurred during a fixed time period; naked POCs are POCs where the price has not returned yet; the market almost always revisits a POC after it's formed, so a naked POC is a very good price of interest in the beginning of the week, i shared my bearish outlook and posted a more elaborate chart in fx chat with a weekly volume profile and five daily volume profiles and a weekly anchored vwap in fx chat, among all the shitposting and arguing last week as usual, another chat member requested a chart from me, so i made this simplified chart for a short call on eu ( EURUSD ) at this point, this eu short call was a simple obvious call based on simple pa as highlighted; it requires barely any thought; basic levels of consciousness and vision are probably sufficient to make the call there are two yellow highlighted rectangular zones each zone contains regions of pa consolidations where (market) movers were building short positions; how do we know they were building shorts? they moved the price down after the consolidation to capitalize on their positions; because the price move was down, they were profiting on short positions (yes, they can make liquidity in a sense, @ name_redacted , by moving the price with market orders, which results in a chain reaction of other market participants joining in the new trend, with many participants in fear of missing out on the price movement; i'm glad i was the one to enlighten you to the term "FOMO" @ name_redacted ) the lower yellow highlighted rectangular zone covers three separate regions of pa; on the right-hand side, it shows a short consolidation (short in sense of short position, not short amount of time) as it shows sideways price ranging followed by a downward move, just like the upper yellow highlighted consolidation; i extended the lower yellow highlighted zone to the left to see what the market did in that price range recently the middle region of the lower yellow highlighted zone includes 6 bars (on this H1 chart) with pa continuing a solid downtrend in the left-hand side of the lower yellow highlighted zone, there was a relatively brief period of pa during an uptrend so in this price range (the lower yellow zone), the longs (buyers) were weak compared to much stronger shorts (sellers) on the very far right, with the most recent pa, the blue highlighted rectangular area covers the pa after i posted my short call and is consistent with my speculation POLYSEMY, CONSOLIDATION, ACCUMULATION, AND DISTRIBUTION because this "idea" includes consolidations and because there was a discussion of nontrivial length in chat this week about accumulation and consolidation, i'll take the liberty of writing about the important concept in linguistics called polysemy , which refers to the property of a word that has more than one (semantic) meaning (or sense); it is prudent to always remember that most words in our natural languages have more than one definition (or sense); context often makes it clear which definition is intended but not always; we learn this simple fact about language when we're very young; as we get older, often many people either forget or ignore or exploit this property of natural language, and the result is often confusion, disagreement, manipulation, or time wasting discussions; it's always best to agree (in some certain sort of way) on the exact definitions of key terms before carrying on a discussion, debate, or analysis, even with simple words that traders use often, like accumulation and distribution and consolidation i used to teach courses for those preparing for the LSAT exam, the Law School Admission Test, and deductive logic is a significant part of that exam, which is based on strict, precise definitions of simple words that we are all used to and use every day: and, or, and if ; these words are polysemous in natural language; each word has more than one definition and the diffferent definitions are not logical consistent, so misinterpreting them can be even disastrous or at least cause confusion, heated arguments, and even delusions as a result of false beliefs sideways, consolidation, ranging, chop, crab, rotation (to list a few) are all virtually synonyms for a period of market activity where the price ranges within relatively smaller price range with horizontal support and resistance; these are common terms that most people use for this particular market behavior in the context of technical analysis; this is not polysemy; this is an example of multiple words that share one common definition sometimes, some people call this sideways market structure (or market behavior, however you want to look at or call it) accumulation because (so i've been told) buy and sell orders are being accumulated (whatever that means...); i think this is usually in the context of market structure theory, where it makes some sense, as the market is accumulating trades ("buy and sell orders" as some say) in a sideways, horizontal support/resistance range more often , however, in technical analysis, the word accumulation is used in the sense of buying that often results in upward price action, or as in accumulating an asset (or any trading instrument), such as gold or Rolls Royce stock in building a position or holding in a portfolio (see investopedia definition of accumulation ) sometimes, when the sideways price action breaks and begins to trend up or down, those who use the word accumulation for the sideways market structure may use the word distribution to refer to whatever trend started, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend; they will call that pa trend distribution more often, in technical analysis, distribution is used in the sense of selling that often results in downward price action, or as in distributing an asset (or any trading instrument) to other traders so one take away from what may seem like a long pedantic trip of details (if you are even still reading) is that you may be talking with someone who seems like they are making no sense whatsoever when they say things like "accumulation is always followed by distribution" or "distributions can be either uptrends or downtrends" or "consolidation is always accumulation" at least, remember those simple words that traders use so often accumulation and distribution , have multiple definitions that are not consistent with each other there are common (and very useful) TA indicators named with those words like the ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line); you need to know which definition is used in titles of those indicators, or you'll be lost in the sauce and... i'll just mention that there are even several other different and common definitions in finance for the the "A" and "D" words too; i'll leave it at that i hope you profited from a EURUSD short last week
Short
by UnknownUnicorn17032407
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the TVC:VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the TVC:VIX right into the #MidTerms... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , and AMEX:DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on volatility of TVC:VIX , NASDAQ:TLT , and TVC:DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger
1
BTCUSDT - ConsolidationHello traders! Trading bitcoin at this time is becoming more and more difficult because volumes are decreasing and thus we are getting into a larger consolidation that accumulates a number of orders that sooner or later decide to create a large volume candle in one direction or the other. The question is where, we will never know, but we can open positions in both directions, but we need to find a suitable opportunity to buy and sell, from which we can assume that the M15 is currently in consolidation and that is why I have marked the zones where I would like to look for a buying opportunity as well as a selling opportunity for such a consolidation, always pay attention to a good distribution of TPs so that you do not have to close any of the positions at a loss if the price turns against you, if it helps us to open positions in both directions and then a breakthrough comes, we can make good money. IMPORTANT WARNING: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rebounds from marked zones created by trading positions of large institutions such as banks or various financial funds may not create new HH or LL and therefore it is very important to collect partial profits at least according to these rules. This will help you to keep your equity curve constantly growing and protect your funds from big drops if the price unexpectedly turns against you. But the decision is only in your hands. I personally prefer setting up multiple TPs , here's an explanation: 1) 1:1 allows you to take a 50% position and thus secure a balance against loss in case the market turns 2) 2-5 :1 means profit (25% trade volume ), after reaching this TP I move SL to BE 3) 5-10 :1 means bonus money with rest of trade volume (again 25%) Money is lying on the ground, just bend down for it! Be patient and wait for the price to reach a strong zone and open a position!
by TraderDominik
3
BTCUSDT - Consolidation (Sell)Hello traders! Today I did an analysis on the lower TF because we are in a sell position from yesterday and it is necessary to check it to see if the price starts to turn against us. We have a situation at M15 that encourages price to consolidate, but I'm leaning more toward selling opportunities, so keep in mind that we may see consolidation before further downtrend continues. If you are looking for an opportunity to enter, definitely try to sell in the marked areas to get the best RRR. IMPORTANT WARNING: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rebounds from marked zones created by trading positions of large institutions such as banks or various financial funds may not create new HH or LL and therefore it is very important to collect partial profits at least according to these rules. This will help you to keep your equity curve constantly growing and protect your funds from big drops if the price unexpectedly turns against you. But the decision is only in your hands. I personally prefer setting up multiple TPs , here's an explanation: 1) 1:1 allows you to take a 50% position and thus secure a balance against loss in case the market turns 2) 2-5 :1 means profit (25% trade volume ), after reaching this TP I move SL to BE 3) 5-10 :1 means bonus money with rest of trade volume (again 25%) Money is lying on the ground, just bend down for it! Be patient and wait for the price to reach a strong zone and open a position!
Short
by TraderDominik
4
Here We GoHi everyone, In my last post, I was explaining how we might still be bearish and how we might make a pullback to the upside for BTCUSDT. Looking at the price, we just broke above the trendline shown above which represents the resistance for the area of consolidation. In other words, we are looking at a breakout. Since we are retesting the higher time frame (H4) previous highs, I am really interested in the 21100 level, where we might see some consolidation. The main reason I think this would be an important level is that it is in confluence with previous H4 lows above the price we are at right now, as well as the 0.382 Fib level considering the last upward move and the 0.5 Fib level considering the last downward move. The direction of the trend will be determined by the breakout from the next consolidation level.
Long
by yassin_khanji
10
BTCUSDT - ConsolidationHello guys, here in the buy zone that is marked in orange when we get a lower TF confirmation, I will be looking for a buying opportunity as consolidation may occur. This is short-term trade! IMPORTANT WARNING: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rebounds from marked zones created by trading positions of large institutions such as banks or various financial funds may not create new HH or LL and therefore it is very important to collect partial profits at least according to these rules. This will help you to keep your equity curve constantly growing and protect your funds from big drops if the price unexpectedly turns against you. But the decision is only in your hands. I personally prefer setting up multiple TPs , here's an explanation: 1) 1:1 allows you to take a 50% position and thus secure a balance against loss in case the market turns 2) 2-5 :1 means profit (25% trade volume ), after reaching this TP I move SL to BE 3) 5-10 :1 means bonus money with rest of trade volume (again 25%) Money is lying on the ground, just bend down for it! Be patient and wait for the price to reach a strong zone and open a position!
Long
by TraderDominik
TOTAL2 vs BTC.D - Signs Of Potential Alt Season To Come When you compare Total Altcoin market cap (Crypto market cap excluding BTC) side by side, you can see that when BTC dominance (BTC.D) falls is usually when alt season happens. When BTC.D goes sideways, altcoins tent to do the same or even consolidate for a while, like we've seen for the last year or so. An a chart altseasn is marked in green, consolidation/sideways movement in yellow and in blue is when crypto winter comes. After BTC topped in Dec. 2017, BTC dominance continued to fall as BTC went into a retracement. Altcoins continued to rally into this moment. After that The whole market crashed and BTC dominance rose significant. This is a typical sign of bear market. This time is a bit different. After BTC made first ATH in 2021 and had its first major selloff, BTC dominance started to go sideways while altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) capitulated. BTC dominance than actually continued to go sideways even after whole marked crashed which does show a sign that the bull market, at least for the altcoins is not over. If it would be over, BTC dominance would have to be rising right now a lot, but it doesn't. Instead it is looking like it will continue to crash, which is a very good sign for altcoins. Remember that time is irrelevant here as no one knows for how long and when things will play out. I am very positive that it will come while BTC will slowly be rising into a retracement. DISCLAMER: I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by AVA37
2
Directional Traders Beware of SPX Chop AheadPrimary Chart: SPX Symmetrical Triangle Suggests More Chop Lies Ahead Larger-Degree Symmetrical Triangle Suggests More Chop Looms Ahead in September 2022 SPX has formed a larger-degree symmetrical triangle on the daily time frame. This is shown on the Primary Chart above. The triangle is valid because it is composed of a series of at least two or more rallies and declines lower. The two major rallies that touched the higher trendline ended on March 29, 2022 and August 16, 2022. The higher trendline connects as well with the January 4, 2022, high at 4818.62 SPX. The higher trendline of the triangle is essentially the downtrend line for this entire bear market that started at SPX's all-time high on January 4, 2022. And the lower trendline has been touched five times, starting at the June 17, 2022, low. A triangle is essentially a consolidation pattern. This is why chop may be in store for SPX in the weeks ahead as the apex of the triangle nears the price. Note how price founds support this week at the triangle's lower trendline (an upward trendline) after a vicious selloff that started at the August 16, 2022 peak. Symmetrical triangles are also called coils because price and volume contract as the price range narrows as the pattern progresses. Price has clearly contracted because price has been contained within the triangle's converging trendlines. Volume has also contracted somewhat since the lower trendline of the triangle began to form at the June 17, 2022 lows. (Volume is not shown on the primary chart above.) If the lower trendline is broken, price will likely begin a substantial directional move. A measuring objective for a symmetrical triangle takes the maximum distance of the triangle at the June 17 low and projects that from the breakout point. But note that a backtest often occurs to wipe out any traders who jumped into positions on the breakout. VWAP and Gap Area Could Draw Price Back into Triangle Next Two Weeks The YTD anchored VWAP lies at 4217 SPX. This VWAP currently sits right in the center of a major gap from August 19-20, 2022. Price could be drawn into the triangle again for an attempt at this gap file and retest of the VWAP. This is not necessarily a high-probability target given that daily trends have turned down, but it is a plausible target with a rational explanation, especially since price stopped falling right at the lower trendline of the triangle last week. SPX Resistance and Support Levels to Watch This Week Key levels of resistance and support are shown on the supplementary chart below. For tomorrow, SPX will need to move above 3941 and eventually 3980 and 4000 for a move back to the center of the triangle to be sustained. The center of the triangle lies right near the head and shoulders neckline (see linked post on SPX H&S pattern where SPX broke down on August 26, 2022. This head-and-shoulders neckline at 4125-4130 also represents an area of resistance and a plausible target for SPX to rally to before resuming any decline. If the upward trendline that is the lower edge of the triangle breaks, then the outlook becomes more immediately bearish, though a whipsaw move may be expected in this very tricky market. The lower edge of the triangle lies at 3915-3925 over the next several days. This is a major level to continue to watch. Coinciding with this upward trendline (lower edge of triangle) are key Fibonacci levels at 3870, 3899, and 3941. Supplementary Chart A: Key Levels of Resistance and Support for the Next Two Weeks Short-Term Targets to the Upside and Longer-Term Targets to the Downside Ichimoku Cloud support also aligns with these support levels identified. Because of such strong support coming in around 3870-3925, from Fibonacci, up trendline at the lower edge of a larger triangle, and Ichimoku cloud, my forecast is that price likely bounces into mid-September 2022. Conservative upside targets = 3997-4003 and 4023 and 4062. Each target will become more likely if the lower target just beneath it can be met and held first. Supplementary Chart B: Key Ichimoku Cloud Support at 3921 Supplementary Chart C: Key Ichimoku Resistance at Kijun Line (Blue) at 4003 While this post leans cautiously long in the very short term, in the longer-term, this post suggests that the bear market will likely continue given the macroeconomic environment and the Federal Reserves continued policy of tightening financial conditions . The lower trendline of the triangle may break to the downside later this year in October or November 2021. Or perhaps a breakout to the upside occurs to fake out market participants before another major move lower—this type of price action can occur with symmetrical-triangle consolidations. SPX 3870 and 3721 (July 14 low) both are likely targets for SPX price in the coming months, though no prediction about when price reaches these targets is made. It also helps to keep an eye on interest rates and whether they continue holding their own upward trendline, and whether they chop or continue exploding higher. Supplementary Chart D: Interest Rates Represented by TNX (10-year yield) Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. SP:SPX TVC:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD EIGHTCAP:SPX500 CME_MINI:ES1! BLACKBULL:SPX500 VANTAGE:SP500 AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
11
ARRY - Array TechnologiesTop notch stock in the best group in the market right now (solar). Holding up well during the recent pullback in the broad market. It won't be able to buck the trend forever, but if the market as a whole begins to bounce or even just stabilize itself, it could allow this (and the other solar stocks) to really take off. The other two solar stocks on my focus list are SHLS & ENPH which arguably have cleaner setups, but the massive growth numbers draw me back to ARRY.
NASDAQ:ARRYLong
by apaqu
But Long-term, Something else. Hey Everyone, DOTUSDT still looks bearish to me, in the short term mostly as I explained in my last post about ETHUSDT. (link down below) In the last few days, the market has been consolidating without any swings that we used to see before. The mid-term trend is bearish, and we are in a symmetrical triangle right now. At its support precisely. We are most likely going to reach the next major Support (in white). However, looking at the long-term chart here and the MA plotted on the RSI, I saw that the RSI reading had crossed the RSI MA, and it is now retesting it. Usually, RSI MA works as the usual moving average but on a momentum indicator. This is a super-bullish factor for me, but still, this is in the long term. So, until we see an opportunity to enter a bullish market, this might take from week(s), to month(s) but probably before the end of this year. I have also noticed this pattern on multiple big-cap coins like VETUSDT and ETHUSDT.
Long
by yassin_khanji
GBP/CAD: Consolidation; updateGreat Britain Pound/Canadian Dollar could to forming consolidation zone that we need to be carefully. I know that price doesn't make any break out and we see a possible market trap in this zone that you must to keep away. For that I closed up manually my trade in the afternoon without any loss or earned. But now, I'm watching a liquidity zone that if GBP/CAD make any manipulation in this market trap, we could to entry in the red points $1.5210 CAD and not far like $1.5190 CAD to entry at favor of the manipulation. Because sometimes Forex market could to forming this movement very hard for amateur, but very understood by professional trader in Forex market. Now, remember that we're in the bearish channel, but price could to make the following movement to confirm the resistance at $1.5362 CAD as possible to found out a good zone to bought in this par. So guys, at the moment, I dont see any long or short, as we would to still pending in the interested point to watch.
by harisonhbn9718
16 Year Cycle of Growth and Consolidation 1948 to 2022I think I have found a pattern of growth and consolidation of the economy and thereby of the stock market, where growth happens for almost 16 years and then it cools down for another 16 years. Growth Phase 1 - 1948 - 1968 After World War 2 from 1948 there is huge growth in the world economy causing the SP500 to surge hugely from a low of 14.5 in 1949 to 108 in 1968 a massive growth of 660% over a period of almost 20 years, which means if you have invested 100$ in 1948 after 20 years you would have 760$ a 7.6x return. Consolidation 1 - 1966 - 1983 With massive growth comes massive stagnation, and consolidation is a part of the economic cycle, from 1966 to 1983 SP500 only grew by 97%, 97% for a period of almost 17 years, if you have invested 100$ in 1966 after 17 years of wait you would only have 197$ which only 2x return. Growth Phase 2 - Tech - 1982 - 2001 Integrated circuits, the tech that revolutionized the way we live, on the way of changing our lifestyle they have also created an enormous amount of wealth, from 1982 to 2001 sp500 grew by almost 1350% over a period of 19 years, if you have invested 100$ in 1982 you would have 1450$ 2001 which is a whooping 14.5X returns. Consolidation 2 - 1996 - 2013 Consolidations are the time when if you are unlucky you wouldn't have made a dime in return even after waiting for 15 years in SP500, from 1996 to 2013 SP500 only grew by 120%, which means a 100$ invested in 96 only gives you 220$ in 2013 after waiting for almost 17 years all you would have is 120$ extra a measly 2.2X. Growth Phase 3 - 2009 - ongoing Finally, we have reached the phase we are currently living in, this is the phase where the dot com companies have become the blue-chip stocks that decide the fate of our economy, since 2009 SP500 has grown tremendously from 733 to the peak of Jan 2022 of 4750 which is almost 550% in growth, meaning if you have invested 100$ in 2009 you would have almost 550$ at the peak of Jan 2022 a huge 5.5X return in 13 years. Since I don't have pro membership I couldn't add images to the post.
SP:SPXLong
by bhanu.chandaluri