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Confirmation

Bitcoin... Bearish Outlook Still, Educational Analysis Inside.Again for all the Bulls out there, I applaud you for the optimism but CONFIRMATION is CONFIRMATION. My confirmation of this bearish trend reversal is the Daily Ichimoku cloud break. (Senkou Span B or Lead 2 seen below) Daily (below) with Ichimoku, 50 & 200 MA. As can be seen we rest on the Senkou Span A (Lead 1) which has also wicked off of the Base Line in pink. (Kijun-sen) Volume is less then convincing on the Daily and the more we test this area the more we are likely to break below . There are no Volume divergences showing on the daily and the sell off generally matches on smaller time frames. The only way we pick up into the cloud is if the Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume ( See past posts by me for tutorials on how to use them ) show a heavy increase matching the prior rallies into the daily Kumo. It is entirely possible but Technical Analysis requires you to use the data in front of you. Watch for a Chaikin Money Flow and On Balance Volume increase on the 4 hour and above to spot a daily increase early. The 12 Hour below shows a Bearish TK cross on the Ichi that happened around 41 hours ago. The daily 50 & 200 Moving averages crossed Bearish March 30th on the daily. The 12 Hour has crossed back and forth but are beginning to merge closer yet again for a bearish move. However these are extremely lagging in relation to Bitcoin's movement and I expect a drop to transpire before that takes place as usual. The 6 Hour below shows us a semi formed Bearish continuation pattern, Volume has had a slight uptick but needs more to pull out. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index still have some room to drop. The 4 Hour below. One thing I have noted personally is we wicked off the 4 Hour Conversion line (Tenkan-sen) in orange when the market became semi overbought. I say overbought because there was no real volume to match the slight rally. (Perfect spot if you were watching to set a short position.) On the Hourly below everything generally matches as far as divergences go, The Stochastic shows a slight variance but nothing noteworthy. Buy pressure is picking up on the Chaikin Money Flow so I do see it entirely possible that we touch the top of our triangle which sets up a entry for a short. Conclusion I base my entries and trends off of confirmation, many traders take one indicator and use that as their confirmation, my ultimate confirmation as mentioned above is the daily Senkou Span B or Lead 2 break. From there we have very little stopping us. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD I am looking for a break down from our current price of $8,270 to $8,150 and then down to stronger support at $8,000. We sit right at a key level that needs to hold, once those targets are reached I will reassess my current positions and see if there are any short term Bullish movements. Until then I remain Bearish and if we break down below above mentioned support then I expect a retest of $6,500 fairly quick. Since I have been riding this position for a bit my take profit is set at the top of the triangle at $8375 in case we break bullish. ALWAYS USE STOPS AND TAKE PROFIT ORDERS. Slap a like and follow on this for me even if you don't agree. :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Nick_Core
71
GDOW: Global Dow Step UpGDOW Global Dow (USD) Step Up The Dow Global has made a similar pattern to the Dow itself with a double bottom at 2970, the second bottom picking up the longer term parallel. Since then it's got itself trapped within the same triangle formation we see on the Dow, still using the lower parallel as ultimate support on down-side tests.Whilst it continues to do so the longer term trend remains in tact. This index has behaved in text-book fashion as the great rally progresses, with each decline being arrested by the previous high, and moving North in a series of steady steps. The next big test comes on the next touch of the falling dynamic (which defines the upper boundary of the triangle formation). At some point soon this challenge will arrive - even if it gets rejected again one more time this rejection is likely to be the last and should be short lived if we do see it happen first. Once it does so it should rally with all world markets to 3109 and consolidate there awhile. A break above 3110 would in turn be the next near term bull signal for world markets in general, opening the way for a rally back to the ATH at 3322. This has, so far at least, been a very reliable confirming back-up signal for other major markets across the globe. When it breaks higher it's therefore the confirming signal to get long of your local market too. We're looking at a 10% average rally across all major stock markets when it triggers. Yours might do even better ... Be lucky.
GLong
by sumastardon
1
Just my 2 sats - BTCUSDTHey guys, it would seem the general consensus among the majority right now is that we're heading into a new low, or at least a retest of the 6k area - I'm not so sure. I've been mostly bearish since i began posting but that was before... before i saw BTC break the bear channel and HOLD. This will mark the first real retest of that once VERY staunch resistance as a new found support (hopefully). Obviously it can fail, however, given the amount of effort BTC needed to break it with any real confirmation, I find myself a little hopeful. This will (In my opinion) be the test to either confirm or deny BTC being in the beginning of a bull season again. This is an important time ladies, gentleman, whales, fishies, bulls and bears and all beasts of burden! feel free to comment your take on the market, i will try to get back to you guys though i often leave this running in the background. Trade safely and make bank!
by Disaster_Chartist
Bitcoin Final Step To Confirm The UptrendBitcoin has reached the downside target at $7555, that is based on the Fibonacci applied to the ascending channel breakout. However, the price went lower and hit $5900 price. Well, the important aspect is that the weekly closing price remained above that level and after breaking below price went immediately up and for the past few days has been rejected the actual downside target/support at $7555. Now the final step required by the Bitcoin to confirm the uptrend and this is to close above $8650 level. It is important that the price will close on a Daily timeframe and better on a Weekly. Therefore a weekly close above $8650 should be a long waiting confirmation of the uptrend. On a downside, break below the $5900 will most likely send price lower to $4000-3800 area and the $7555 support has to be watched for a break below.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoPAMM
13
LSKUSD: Intraday Impulsive Rise On LISKHello traders, we are here for you even on Saturday! Having a cup of coffee we are going through some Cryptos to see what's going on and we saw something interesting. Well, as you can see BTC went sharply higher while some ALTcoins stayed sideways and many traders started to speculate, that correction can be completed at this stage, but we are talking all the time that wave structures and patterns are the most important to recognize direction! And as you can see, wave structures are very sharp and impulsive, so we cannot say yet that Cryptos will go down here, especially when we take a look on BITTREX:LSKBTC , which has clearly bullish pattern for much higher levels towards 58 level, especially because it's bullish confirmed with broken channel resistance line. Actually, LISK is not a leading cryptocurrency, but based on structures and targets on other cryptocurrencies, we think that Cryptos is not going to stop just like that and we don't expect any significant decline, so we think that rally will continue and any short decline will be just a temporary pullback within uptrend!
LLong
by ew-forecast
9
EUR/USD too tall?!Recently we've seen some odd behavior by the Euro in most currencies, but in great timing it has left us a few clues to determine its true direction for a long and profitable trade. Right now you can see in the 4hr chart, I've outlined a curve under the candlesticks . The curve represents the gradual change of the price starting the beginning of this month (Feb). Now we recently broke new high's yesterday and due to an overbought RSI (and other indicators on other platforms), we were only hoping for a pull back. This pullback is important for the saucer formation for it's potential hasn't been exuded yet. Because this pullback reached the top of the support we can assume the 78% is a good support and any closing beyond 1.24490 would be a hint towards it's next leg. The retracement slid to the 78% region. This region also happens to be support since January 24th; and the RSI is about to reach it's resistance as well. With the RSI being divergent, I can expect the Euro to be overbought for a few days within the next trading period. I believe its good to mention the 20 EMA is providing primary support to this uptrend. Hopefully this provided some idea as to where the Euro plans on going. There's a lot of potential for this currency to make annual highs, but of course we just have to wait for confirmation in these next few session hours. After that, we can determine our trade for next week if plausible.
Long
by jordvnflows
1
EURUSD and DXY confirming signal of change in trend for dollarEURUSD EURUSD and DXY EUR is tracking an inverse set of parallels to DXY. When EUR breaks lower it's a second sell/add shorts signal which must be confirmed by DXY breaking above the upper parallel containing this impulse wave from inception. DXY has to break and hold above that parallel before the bears will back off - but it's fighting here, where it should if it's to turn back up from here. The confirming signal is the break above the upper parallel. DXY Dollar Index Despite the spike and noise surrounding CPI numbers yesterday DXY has been forced back down the same small parallels it was travelling down before the numbers hit the newsfeeds. As in last comment Dollar bulls still have the double bottom on their side here. The last one was one week apart, this one is 2 weeks apart. The Dollar is likely to hold here at these lower levels and then begin to rally. It's waiting on Wall St to open now but bears in London have failed to push it below the double bottom. A sign of waning downside momentum. Once it can break above the upper small parallel guiding the descent it should attract more buyers and move back up to test the 89.37 line where it will likely meet resistance again...it has to push on through here during the course of today for the bulls to gain more traction and flip DXY into more positive mode from this point. This battle may take some time to resolve - DXY has to fight its way through three lines of near term resistance at 89.37, 89.51 and then 89.62 to turn back to positive again. Look to buy dips here and on the pairs with stops under 88.40 on DXY for small loss if wrong from here. Increase longs on move above the smaller upper parallel. On downside, DXY will have to break below 88.40 today to change this view to near term negative but only back to 87.70 at lowest where DXY should find final support and begin to rally again. But so long as 88.40 holds up today the Dollar's downtrend is finally coming to an end.
by sumastardon
LTC/USD Double Bottom ReversalLitecoin chart is looking to show good signs of reversal. I found a double bottom pattern that follows the rules pretty accurately. Ive noticed the first leg ends before the second leg and there is a good amount of volume throughout these bottoms. The space between the moving averages is decreasing, once we see the 8 EMA (green) move over the 55 EMA (red) it is a good confirmation we are moving in an uptrend. Once the candles close over the trend line resistance we will see it shoot towards the neckline. After it is passed the neckline it will retest it as the new support and move on from there. **The green lines are not price predictions they are just showing what will happen once it passes the trend line resistance** I am not a professional, i am still learning. If there is anything you would like to point out about my analysis please feel free to comment as i appreciate any help/tips. Thanks
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by nickd534