Recession concerns dominate the headlinesEUR/USD 🔼
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As the dollar remained strong, EUR/USD reached a 20-year low of 1.0160 on Wednesday. Amidst predictions of a local recession and an impending energy crisis, the shared currency is among the weakest.
The GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuates about 1.1930, under pressure as the UK government crisis intensifies. Over thirty officials resigned, and many others begged Boris Johnson to quit. The 1922 Committee, comprised of Conservative backbenchers, sought to alter the rules that shield PM Johnson from the second vote of no confidence.
The FOMC issued the Minutes of its most recent meeting. The memo demonstrated that Federal Reserve officials concurred that rising inflation necessitated restrictive interest rates and are willing to become even more stringent if inflation persists. In addition, most respondents perceived an adverse risk to growth and a "substantial danger" that rising inflation may stay entrenched. The US Federal Reserve opened the door for another 75 basis point rate rise.
Wall Street struggled to register gains throughout the day, but significant indices ended higher. Although the FOMC Minutes' hawkish tone, policymakers refrained from discussing a 100 basis point (bps) rate rise, despite committing to do everything necessary to combat inflation. In addition, policymakers abstained from discussing the recession.
The yield curve for US Treasuries remains inverted. Currently, the 10-year note yields 2.93 percent, while the 2-year note yields 2.97 percent. Typically, an inverted curve is viewed as an early indicator of a recession.
Against the U.S. dollar, commodity-based currencies exhibited minimal movement. The AUD/USD exchange rate is around 0.6780, while the USD/CAD exchange rate is approximately 1.3040.
The USD/CHF exchange rate touched a new monthly high of 0.9743, while the USD/JPY pair finished at 135.85.
Gold reached a new 2022 low of $1,732.19 per troy ounce before the end of the trading day. The current price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is $98.40.
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Commoditytrading
Recession fears see Euro plunging to a 20-year lowEUR/USD 🔽
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Without an official announcement, the market has reacted as if the recession is here, turning to the greenback as a safe haven option. The Euro and British Pound took the biggest hit, EUR/USD plunged to a 20-year low of 1.0266, losing off 150 pips in the process. GBP/USD also declined more than 1.3% to 1.1957, as the resignations of two major cabinet members further destabilized the Johnson administration.
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.35%, aligning with its forecasts, while preparing more rate hikes to control inflation. AUD/USD had dropped modestly to 0.6802. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will provide the trade balance figures for May.
The US dollar received a huge boost, USD/CAD spiked to 1.3036 with a high of 1.3075. A strong greenback dissuaded investors from buying the yellow metal, gold futures dropped to the lowest level in over six months at 1,763.9 an ounce.
Recession fears also lowered the anticipated demand for crude oil, WTI crude futures retreated below the $100 level, to a closing price of $99.5 a barrel.
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Germany trade recorded the first deficit since 1991EUR/USD 🔼
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With inflation casting a shadow over the global economy, higher goods prices have led to a trade deficit of one billion euros in Germany, the first since 1991. The reading surprised investors since they were expecting a trade surplus of 2.7 billion euros in May. Despite the news, the euro managed to close with minor gains against the US dollar at 1.0424, with a high of 1.0461.
Yet another reminder that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its key interest rate this afternoon, with a 50 basis point rate hike forecast. Meanwhile, Australia Retail Sales has increased by 0.9%, same as last month. After retreating from 0.6886, the AUD/USD pair closed at 0.6864.
As the US goes on holiday, USD/CAD recovered from a low of 1.2838, then closed with a loss at 1.2859. GBP/USD slightly moved up to 1.2105, with a high of 1.2164. Gold futures had a quiet trading session, currently at $1,812.10 an ounce.
WTI crude futures returned to $110 level, since the strike among Norwegian offshore workers is likely to reduce daily crude oil output by 89,000 barrels, a tightened supply has firmly held oil prices at 110.25 with little change.
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Risk off mood pushes greenback to near 20-year highsEUR/USD 🔽
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US investors will take a day off to celebrate their Independence Day holiday, market uncertainties and supply shocks send the US Dollar Index Futures from twice over 105.1 - near 20-year highs to 104.8. Meanwhile, the United States 10-Year Bond Yield went below 3.000%, currently trading at 2.889%, and USD/CAD briefly went past 1.2950 to 1.2883.
The pursuit for safety also extended the weakened run for major currencies, EUR/USD fell to 1.0428 with a low of 1.0375. The Eurozone had an 8.6% increase in consumer prices in June against an 8.4% forecast, furthering the inflation reading record.
The GBP/USD pair slumped below 1.2000, then recovered to a closing price of 1.2094. Tomorrow night, the UK Composite and Services Purchasing Managers Indices will be available, with the market expecting the same level as the previous month.
Major news will be announced from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the latest Interest Rate Decision and Statement are to be provided by the central bank, projections have anticipated a 50-basis point rate hike to 1.35%. AUD/USD dropped to 0.6814.
Storms brewing in the Atlantic may further tighten the oil supply, U.S oil futures added over $2.5 to $108.43 a barrel. Gold price rebounded from a low of 1,785 to 1,801.5, now trading at 1,810.15 an ounce.
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US GDP diminished by 1.6% in the first quarter this yearEUR/USD 🔽
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The US GDP was the first to release this week, the -1.6% contraction in the first quarter over the -1.5% forecast indicates a possible recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledges the risks of recession brought by aggressive rate hikes, but maintained controlling inflation would be his primary objective.
As a result, recession fears weakened major currencies against greenback, EUR/USD declined to 1.0439 and GBP/USD to 1.2125. As weathervanes for the European economy, Germany’s Retail Sales and Unemployment Change figures will be released tonight.
The UK and Canada also have their GDP readings about to be announced, investors anticipated a 0.8% growth for the UK in the first quarter, and Canada’s GDP in April to increase by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair closed at 1.2891 with modest gains, and AUD/USD reached 0.6881 with minor oscillations.
Other than a brief spike to 1,833, gold futures were less eventful to close at 1,817.5 an ounce. US Gasoline Inventories has mildly surprised the market by increasing its stockpile by over 2.6 million barrels, which eased the oil prices from 113.5 to 109.78 a barrel.
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Oil price rises as OPEC edges towards max production capacityEUR/USD 🔽
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Oil prices continue to recover from last week's weak run, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates almost reaching their production limits, being the few OPEC members who still can increase capacities. The market saw oil futures went up to $111.76 a barrel, then briefly climbed above $112.
The market mood was dampened as the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase its interest rate on Friday (1 July), for the first time in 11 years. ECB President Christine Lagarde further suggested more rate hikes will follow if inflation fails to slow down. EUR/USD has a noticeable fall to 1.0518, stabilizing at 1.0525 afterwards.
The GBP/USD pair dropped to a closing price of 1.2182. Later tonight, Governor Bailey of the Bank of England will give speeches on the latest economic updates for the UK. Australia Retail Sales in May recorded a 0.9% growth over a forecasted decline of 0.4%. Still, AUD/USD closed with minor losses at 0.6906.
Oil bulls did not cheer the loonie, USD/CAD mostly traded flat at 1.2871, after recovering from a two-week low of 1.2825. Gold futures were also relatively cool, the yellow metal lost less than $3 to $1,821.2 an ounce.
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G7 proposed price cap to limit Russian oil incomeEUR/USD 🔼
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Apart from a unilateral default on Russian bonds by western creditors, the Group of Seven nations proposed a price cap that would sharply limit its oil revenue. The sanction is aimed at lowering oil prices as well, but with China and India being the largest customers, it would be difficult to implement the price ceiling. On Tuesday, WTI oil futures closed at $109.57 a barrel, now returning to the $110 level.
GBP/USD traded flat at 1.2264, but briefly went to a week high of 1.2330. EUR/USD rose to 1.0583, with a high of 1.0613, as the Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will be released tonight. AUD/USD seesaw its way to a loss of 0.6923, and tomorrow's Australia Retail Sales figures for May is expected to decrease from 0.9% to 0.4%.
The USD/CAD pair had a closing price of 1.2878, losing 13 pips in the process. Gold Futures lost momentum and declined to 1,824.8 then stabilized at 1,825.
Last month's US Pending Home Sales beat market forecasts, with a 0.7% growth against a projected loss of -3.7%. Meanwhile, the market anticipated negative readings for Consumer Confidence and Gross Domestic Product, which will be announced tomorrow.
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Friday rally bring US indices half way back to pre-June levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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Last Friday, US stocks managed to halve the losses from early June, major stock indices gained between 2.68 to 3.49%. For individual performances, Meta Platforms rose by 7.19%, and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) had a 15.77% spike as the travel sector outperformed the market.
The risk on mood also encouraged investors to prefer major currencies other than the US dollar. Despite the German IFO business climate index and UK retail sales readings not meeting market projections, EUR/USD and GBP/USD climbed to 1.0554 and 1.2262 respectively with oscillations.
AUD/USD closed at 0.6948, and just dropped to 0.6913. USD/CAD sharply declined over the weekend with a closing price of 1.2893, losing more than 100 pips. Later tonight, the US Census Bureau will provide the latest figures on Durable and Capital Goods Orders.
Gold futures recovered from last week's low of $1,823.5 to $1,830.3 an ounce, now reaching $1,838.4. U.S. WTI crude futures had a choppy trading session, concluding at $107.62 a barrel.
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Recession fears rekindle greenback appealEUR/USD 🔽
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Yesterday (23 June), as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said his team is "acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship". Meanwhile, he also acknowledges "our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country" - admitting their monetary decisions could bring the economy to a recession.
As a result, investors flocked to the US dollar to get shelter from possible economic turbulences. EUR/USD fell from 1.0575 to 1.0494, then closed at 1.0523. Germany's Manufacturing PMI in June underperformed with a 52.0 reading against a 54.0 forecast.
The latest PMI figures for the UK were a mixed bag of results, while the Composite and Services PMI were slightly better than market projections, Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations at 53.4. GBP/USD recovered from 1.2170 to a closing price of 1.2261. Later tonight, the UK Retail Sales will be available.
The AUD/USD pair dropped 28 pips to 0.6899, and USD/CAD closed at 1.2994, while just retreating from 1.3013 today. The results of yesterday's Federal Reserve annual bank stress test show banks continue to have strong capital levels, maintaining their lending capacity.
Gold futures briefly went to 1,846.6 a troy ounce then cooled off to close at 1,829.8. Oil prices experienced minor fluctuations, finally closing with a loss at 104.27 a barrel.
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U.S. Indices rallied over 2%, greenback retreatsEUR/USD 🔼
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After a series of massive selloffs, major US indices rallied over 2% and recovered losses from last week. Dow Jones 100 alone has increased by more than 400 points, just as US Existing Home Sales growth of over 5.41 million, exceeding market expectations of 5.39 million.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies with minor losses. EUR/USD jumped to 1.0525, investors anticipated the Composite Price Manager Index readings in Eurozone and Germany to be mostly unchanged. GBP/USD gained 19 pips to 1.2272, as the market awaits tonight’s UK Consumer Price Index and tomorrow’s UK Services Price Manager Index readings.
AUD/USD rose to a closing price of 0.6970. USD/CAD fell to 1.2919, with support from a strong Canadian core retail sales figure that went up by 1.3%, over a projection of 0.6%, the core CPI announcements will determine how much basic goods have been contributed to its inflation.
Just as stocks gained momentum, gold futures fell to 1,838.8 with minor losses, and crude oil prices were supported by summertime fuel demand, going up to 109.52 a barrel with small gains.
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usoilIf 5 waves are in off the march 2020 lows during the covid crash then we topped around $130. We should now correct the entire move in the ABC which looks like a Flat because wave A was very shallow. This means that as long as wave B is in already then Wave C should be 5 waves down and test the golden fib ratio around $58. As the ABC reveals itself I would expect it to be not very neat and clean as I am forecasting today and probably develop into a very complex double or even triple correction to wipe out all the bulls. So this is just a preliminary forecast. We will be looking to buy this dip with crypto win profits because after the correction to USOIL is complete we should expect a new impulsive 5 up to start and go way past $130.
ECB President expects another rate hike in SeptemberEUR/USD 🔼
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In their respective speeches, the leaders from the European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both agreed for raising interest rates to limit inflation within 2-3%, while hinting at returning to more rounds. EUR/USD managed to close at 1.0509, currently on the rebound to 1.0530. In his speech, the RBA Governor also expects high inflation rates for the rest of 2022. AUD/USD closed at 0.6948 and is slowly recovering from 0.6944.
GBP/USD and Gold Futures mostly traded flat yesterday, the British Pound exchange rate against the greenback is mostly unchanged at 1.225, with minor gains and a sluggish growth rate. The UK Consumer Price Index on Wednesday should provide further information on the growth of price levels. Meanwhile, Gold futures have experienced minor oscillations at a high of 1,847.7, to close at 1,840.7.
The Canadian currency was weakened by a sudden drop in crude oil prices last week, USD/CAD closed at 1.2979, and the Existing Home Sales in May for the US and Core Retail Sales for Canada will be released tonight. Crude oil closed at 108.77, then soon returned to 110.06 a barrel.
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USOUSD OIL,Yesterday's buyer fightback to push a new leg higher?Thanks for tunning in TradingView community. Today we're looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday's price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers.
So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week's high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session.
Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday's high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go.
If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum.
Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.
Treasury yields and greenback retreat after Fed's 75 bps hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 75 basis points, the highest since November 1994. As a result, both Treasury yields and the greenback have retreated, with the United States 10-Year Bond Yield closing at 3.395%, and followed by a low of 3.29%. Meanwhile, US retail sales underperformed with a 0.3% decrease against a 0.2% growth forecast, hinting at a recession that may come after the mega rate hike.
EUR/USD rose to 1.0443, then spiked from 1.0375 to 1.0475 with minor oscillation, investors expect tomorrow's (17 June) Eurozone CPI reading to maintain at 8.1%. GBP/USD has a closing price of 1.2178, currently trading at 1.2175 level. Also on tomorrow, the latest Bank of England Interest Rate had a prediction of bumping 25 basis points to 1.25%.
News on Australian Employment Change in May probably brought optimism among investors, since 60,600 people are joining the workforce, against the original forecast of 25,000. The Aussie greenback pair climbed to 0.7002 and just reached 0.7022. USD/CAD took a dive, went below 1.2900 and closed at 1.289.
A weakened dollar drove up gold futures, first closed at 1,819.6, then briefly went above 1,843, now trading flat at 1,834. Amongst fears of recession. US Crude Oil Inventories managed to restock 1.956 million barrels of crude oil, when most believed it would decline by 1.314 million barrels. Oil prices briefly returned to 115 a barrel, but soon recovered to 116.44.
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NatGas: It´s not over, yet!Yesterday´s massive sell-off of natural gas sparked many discussions about what is going to happen next. Well, we expect the price to drop further and reach the turquiose zone between $6.482 - $5.858. Here, we believe that the correction will end and turn into a big upward trend. However, if the course drops below this zone, further sell-offs will be triggered.
The Dollar maintains its momentum ahead of the FedEUR/USD🔼
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As anxiety dominates financial markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve's decision, the US dollar maintained its strength on Tuesday and Wednesday's opening hours.
Market participants had long anticipated a 50 bps increase, but on Monday, market chatter suggested the central bank may opt for a 75 bps increase. In addition, US officials will give updated Economic Projections, which might result in a protracted aggressive attitude if the new scenario suggests stagflation.
Regarding Eurozone, ECB member Klaas Knot hinted at more rate rises in October and December while maintaining a 25 basis point increase in September.
The United Kingdom delivered mixed employment figures, as the unemployment rate increased from 3.7% in March to 3.8% in April. Still, the number of persons seeking unemployment benefits decreased by 19.7K in May.
The EUR/USD pair stays above 1.0400, while GBP/USD trades at 1.1980, its lowest level since March 2020. The AUD/USD pair continued its decline to 0.6850, while the USD/CAD pair trades at 1.2955, as the weak performance of stocks and falling gold and oil prices sapped demand for commodity-linked currencies.
Wall Street continued under selling pressure, although the Nasdaq Composite managed to notch a 0.10% gain.
Yields on US government bonds continued to rise, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reaching a 10-year high of 3.489%.
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Fed rate hike fears trigger US stock sell-off EUR/USD ⬇️
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Since inflation does not seem to have peaked just yet, investors expect a mega rate hike of 75 basis points from the Federal Reserve on Thursday, which could bring the US economy to a recession. As a result, major US indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 have all declined. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield kept breaking the record high since 2008, currently at 3.385%.
Major currencies remained bearish, the Euro and Aussie dropped to near month-low, EUR/USD closed at 1.0408 and AUD/USD at 0.6923. With its GDP data underperforming in all variations, GBP/USD went further to a near 3-month low at 1.2134.
Later today (14 June), the UK Office for National Statistics will provide labor market related data such as claimant count change and unemployment rate. Regarding the interest rate decision in the UK, forecasts have projected a 25 basis point increase from the Bank of England.
The USD/CAD pair rose and stabilized at 1.290 level, before closing at 1.2897 - a near month-high. A series of US retail sales data will be released tomorrow, the market anticipated an accelerated growth in core retail goods, and general sales to slow down due to soaring oil prices.
Crude oil mostly traded flat yesterday to a closing price of 120.93, but today saw a rebound from below 118 to over 121 a barrel. Gold futures were at 1,831.8, edging towards a near month-low of 1,820.
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UK to announce GDP figures todayEUR/USD ⬇️
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Major currencies retreated over the weekend, alternating between sharp falls and trading flat. EUR/USD slowed at 1.0520, closed at 1.0515 and currently trading at 1.0482. Tomorrow (14 June), the Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will provide insight into European inflation.
The British Pound followed the Euro by dropping to a closing price of 1.2314, now at 1.2271. Later today in the afternoon, the UK Office for National Statistics will provide a series of GDP and Manufacturing Production figures, with employment data to follow afterwards.
Meanwhile in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement on Tuesday is expected to increase from 0.5% to 0.8%, a further divergence to the core PPI forecast, indicating soaring energy prices to be the primary source of inflation. USD/CAD closed at 1.2781, and kept climbing to 1.2814.
With new cases in Beijing faltering hopes of reopening, the Aussie was weakened against the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair declined to close at 0.7051, and just went further down to 0.7006. Gold futures were at
1,875.5 last week, the rally ended after meeting resistance at 1,880 level, eventually returning to 1,864.
Crude oil experienced wild fluctuations from a closing price of 120.67, now bouncing between 116 and 119 a barrel. United States 10-Year Bond Yield ascended to 3.200%, a high since 2008.
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ECB raises key rate by 25 basis points in JulyEUR/USD ⬇️
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The European Central Bank (ECB) finally relents, and prepares to increase the key interest rate by 25 basis points in July, while other interest rate categories remain unchanged. In its statement, the ECB claims “conditions have been satisfied” for a rate hike and net asset purchases will cease as means to tighten the monetary policy.
In response to this update, EUR/USD dipped from 1.0760, stabilized at 1.0620 with a closing price of 1.0614. While the ECB decision is less aggressive than the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB is expected to raise the key interest rate again in September.
Greenback also rallied against other major currencies, GBP/USD dipped from 1.2552 to 1.249. New lockdown measures were imposed in Shanghai and Beijing to meet China’s zero-case policy target, both Australian currency and economy were dampened, AUD/USD declined to 0.7097, after trading flat at 0.7095.
USD/CAD climbed and plateaued at 1.270 level to close at 1.2696, as Canada’s Net Change in Employment is expected to have a 30,000 increase - a double over last month’s growth of 15,200. A strong dollar and higher US treasury yields have gold futures prices subdued, spot gold briefly fell to 1,842 per ounce but quickly recovered to 1,852.8.
The downsizing of several US refineries did not deter the oil bulls, crude oil went down to 121.51 a barrel, now on its way back to 120. Later tonight (10 June), forecasts have projected a 0.5% increase in US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), and general CPI going even higher with oil prices soaring.
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ECB rate hike, Norwegian strike spikes oil pricesEUR/USD ⬆️
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Yesterday (8 June), Eurozone GDP recorded a modest increase in both yearly (5.4%) and quarterly terms (0.3%), beating market expectations. The good news has made the European Central Bank more likely to raise interest rates tomorrow (10 June), which sits at 0%. EUR/USD retreated from 1.0750, stabilized and closed at 1.0714.
The GBP/USD pair experienced minor fluctuations to close at 1.2539 with a loss, possibly soured by the 56.4 reading from the UK Construction PMI, unable to meet the forecast of 56.6. AUD/USD had a closing price at 0.7192, unable to be lifted by the recovering Chinese economy.
Meanwhile in Canada, the Purchasing Managers Index had improved from 66.3 to 72.0, and investors anticipated a notable 30,000 rise in employment, but the greenback proved to be stronger - USD/CAD rebounded from 1.2521 to 1.2557. The US dollar rally extended to the Japanese yen as well, USD/JPY sprung to a 20-year high at 134.24.
As gold futures briefly went past 1,860.0 to 1,856.5, crude oil climbed from 119 to 122 a barrel, to a near 3-month high of 122.11. Even though US Crude Oil Inventories defied a negative outlook and increased by 2.025 million barrels, news of China easing lockdowns and Norwegian oil workers planning for a strike this weekend have increased demand and tightened supply.
A collection of critical economic indicators will be released tomorrow, in the form of US consumer price index (CPI), most predicted an upswing in general CPI and core CPI going the other way, implying that surging oil prices are the primary driving factors for inflation.
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Has Silver started a new leg lower? Hello, TradingView community. We hope you’re all having a solid session so far. Silver's daily chart has caught our attention today as price formed a solid move lower yesterday, and sellers have broken the low in today’s session. This could be a confirmation that the recovery trend has started to fail.
On top of the price pattern, the MA is pointing lower, and the CCI is in its bearish zone. We want to see price close below yesterday’s low and test/break the May 19th low to give this idea more credit. If we sellers can hold momentum and break 21.27, this could show strong seller momentum, and if other factors back up the momentum, we could even see a new move back to the 20.60 area.
But, we are looking for sellers to close below yesterday’s low to give yesterday’s move further confirmation.
The same pattern can also be seen on gold’s daily chart.
Good trading.
USOUSD Oil, continuation higher watch.Good morning/good afternoon TradingView community.
Today's video idea is focused on oil as we saw a solid reversal yesterday sellers did their best to get a new leg lower going. Buyers not only stopped the run but put in a solid reversal bar that finished above the 50% point of the previous lower bar.
This action has us thinking, could this be the start of a new trend continuation? We are watching to see if buyers can break yesterday's high. A break could be the starting point of confirmation of this idea. The MA and CCi both support further buying, but we really want to see yesterday's high beaten to show that buyers retain momentum.
Please check out our video for more detail on our trade idea.
Good trading. We hope everyone has a great weekend.