US GDP decline sees stocks closing lowerEUR/USD 🔼
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
XAU ▶️
WTI 🔽
US GDP readings for the second quarter of 2022 were at -0.6%, aligning with market estimates. On the other hand, Initial Jobless Claims have decreased from 213,000 to 193,000, slightly more optimistic than the original projection of 215,000. A contracting economy has sent US stocks further down, all three major indices fell to over a two-year low, Nasdaq 100 dropped the most to 11,164.78, losing 2.86% in the process.
Despite Canada’s GDP rising by 0.1% over a -0.15% forecast, USD/CAD still managed to close higher at 1.3677, after retreating from 1.3752. German CPI has reached double figures at 10%, and the Eurozone CPI this afternoon is also expected to have a 9.7% spike. But high inflation didn’t stop the Euro from regaining territory lost earlier this week, EUR/USD regained upward momentum after falling from 0.9640, to a closing price of 0.9814.
The British Pound continued to bounce back fiercely after the previous dive, by surging 188 pips to 1.1115. Meanwhile, the Aussie / Dollar pair experienced some oscillation and closed with a modest loss at 0.6499.
A strong dollar and recession fears led to more risk-aversion in the market, and gold prices were little changed at $1,660.61 an ounce, despite dropping to $1,642.0 prior. WTI oil futures went slightly lower to $81.23 a barrel, although oil prices could rise since OPEC is likely to cut production, and civil unrest in Iran made the nuclear deal more difficult to close.
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Commoditytrading
Non-US Major currencies recovered after major lossesEUR/USD 🔼
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔼
USD/CAD 🔽
XAU 🔼
WTI 🔼
The decline among major currencies was replaced by a rapid rally yesterday, EUR/USD closed at 0.9734 with a high of 0.9745, and AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6522. As the Bank of England announced a purchase program for long-dated bonds, the British Pound / Dollar pair had the most notable gains. The currency pair bounced back from 1.0557, peaking at 1.0900, and closed at 1.0888.
USD/CAD had lost over 110 pips while slumping to 1.3605. Later tonight, Statistics Canada will provide its GDP data, where investors expected a 0.1% decline. In addition, the US will also update its GDP and Initial Jobless Claims readings this evening.
Commodities also enjoyed a recovery run, gold price rose to $1,662.1 and closed at $1,660.01 an ounce. WTI oil futures went above $80 to $82.15 a barrel, due to a decrease in crude oil inventories by 215,000 barrels.
As the greenback retreats, US stocks and indices reclaimed lost territory. S&P 500 reached a high of 3,734.88, Dow Jones met resistance at 29,800, and Nasdaq 100 was highest at 11,540.98. Apple saw its stock prices fall to 146, currently at 149.84 - due to its decision to hold back production boosts for its latest iPhone 14.
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The Bank of England steps in after pound hits record lowEUR/USD 🔽
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USD/CAD 🔼
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The UK’s “mini-budget“ with numerous tax cuts proved to be disastrous to the British Pound, as the GBP/USD fell to a record low. The currency pair briefly went below 1.0500, closed at 1.0684, and currently recovered to 1.0750. The Bank of England has swiftly responded by closely monitoring the market, and will adjust interest rates to control price levels while its currency weakens.
Other major currencies too suffered from a strong greenback and recession fears, EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9606 with a low of 0.9585, and the Aussie/Dollar pair suffered fewer losses at 0.6454. USD/CAD returned from 1.3797 to 1.3732, gaining 137 pips. The Bank of Japan’s latest intervention did not stop USD/JPY from rising almost 130 pips, which closed at a high of 144.75.
After declining to $1,622.53, gold prices just bounced back from $1,621.81 an ounce. WTI oil futures spiked to $80.00 but slid to a closing price of $76.71 a barrel afterward, citing potential supply disruptions from a brewing hurricane on the US southeastern coast.
In the stock market, the slump in major US indices has slowed down, with Dow Jones losing the most at -1.11% to 29,260. A scheduled return of Chinese tour groups has cheered the entertainment sector, especially resorts and casinos, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (MLCO) jumped to 7.0696, gaining over 25% in the process.
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Today's forex news: UK borrowing plans sends the pound tumblingEUR/USD 🔽
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USD/CAD 🔼
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The British government announced its plan in response to the economic challenges, it proposed massive tax cuts and increased borrowing following the 50 bps rate hike last week. GBP/USD then plunged over 400 pips, to a three-decade low of 1.0401, finally recovering to a closing price of 1.0856.
Meanwhile, recession fears have also haunted other non-US major currencies, the Euro / Dollar pair declined further to 0.9600, before closing at 0.969 - a level not seen since 2002. Later this afternoon, the German GDP and Business Climate Index will be available, as the market expects the German GDP growth for the third quarter this year to remain at 0.1%.
AUD/USD fell to 0.6527, losing more than 110 pips in the process. The greenback climbed to 1.3589 against the loonie, currently higher at 1.3613. Risk-off sentiment also suppressed global demand for commodities, gold was traded lower at $1,643.57 an ounce, and WTI crude futures slumped to an eight-month low at $78.74 a barrel.
Fueled by a strong dollar, Both US stocks and crypto markets recorded considerable losses, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Dow all lost over 4%, and Bitcoin broke through the $19,000 level to $18,935.0.
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September Commodity Trading at a GlanceSummary of the last September WASDE Report:
***WHEAT***
– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones
***CORN***
– U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol as on reductions to harvested area and yield
– Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia. China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall
***RICE***
– U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies. Lowest U.S. rice production since 1993/94
– global outlook is for lower supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and lower stocks.
***SOYBEANS***
– US Soybean production is projected down with lower harvested area and yield. Higher cottonseed production.
– Worldwide, Ukraine’s soybean production is raised on higher area. China soybean imports for 2022/23 are lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are down mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks. EU soybean imports are lowered with higher supplies of other oilseeds.
***SUGAR***
– U.S. sugar stocks are reduced as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced.
***LIVESTOCK***
– Beef production is raised for the second half of the year with higher expected slaughter for the period. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged.
***COTTON***
– U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks this month.
– The 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption.
The Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps as expectedEUR/USD ▶️
GBP/USD 🔽
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/JPY 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
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WTI ▶️
After the Federal Reserve's decision to increase the interest rate by 75 bps, the expected 50 bps rate hike from the Bank of England seemed tame in comparison. The UK fell on hard times as economic issues and the passing of its long-reigning monarch presented great challenges to the new Prime Minister, and the British Pound declined to 1.1257 against the greenback.
On the other side of the British Channel, the European continent did not fare much better. EUR/USD recorded little change at a closing price of 0.9836, after returning from a high of 0.9900, still staying below parity. AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6643 with minor losses.
In the US, the labor market displayed some signs of improvement, although the latest Initial Jobless Claims reading was at 213,000, it was slightly lower than the market estimates of 218,000. Riding on the waves of Fed rate hikes, USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3487, but USD/JPY plunged to 142.35, rebounding from a low of 140.61.
Gold futures were particularly volatile yesterday, swinging between $1,695 and $1,665, finally closing at $1,681.1 an ounce. WTI oil futures briefly went to $86.65 a barrel, but eventually traded flat at $83.49.
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GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.
Market braces for more record-high US and UK rate hikesEUR/USD 🔽
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The dollar renewed its strength against other major currencies, as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision edges closer. The market expects a 75 to 100 bps rate hike, while the Bank of England also had a projected 75 bps interest rate increase - a high in over three decades. Thus, EUR/USD slumped below parity again, closing at 0.997, and GBP/USD to 1.1379.
A mixed bag of housing market data did not deter the dollar train, USD/CAD climbed and slowed, finally reaching a closing price of 1.3362, gaining over 100 pips in the process. The AUD/USD pair recorded a modest loss, due to declining oil and gold prices.
The yellow metal was overshadowed by the prospect of an even stronger US dollar, gold futures went down by $7 to $1,671.1 an ounce. Oil prices went bearish as investors anticipated the US crude oil inventories to increase by 2.1 million barrels, last traded at $83.94 a barrel.
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US Bond yields rising as the market slows downEUR/USD ▶️
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As the US bond yield curve remains inverted, bond yields are fueled by the imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.514%, and the 2-year bond yield went higher to 3.934%. Although the stock market did slightly recover from yesterday’s losses, the forex and commodities markets looked quiet otherwise.
Major currencies recorded minor gains against the greenback, EUR/USD closed at 1.0022, GBP/USD added 17 pips to 1.1429, and USD/CAD decreased to 1.3248. The latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained their monetary tightening policy to control inflation, and expect further rate hikes ahead, the Aussie / Dollar pair mostly traded flat, with a closing price of 0.6727.
For now, recession fears have canceled out positive signals in the market. Gold futures were little changed at $1,678.2 an ounce, WTI oil futures briefly dipped to $82.15 per barrel before returning to $85.36.
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US stocks plunge further ahead of Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔼
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As the market awaits the latest interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, the stock market returned its gains last Thursday. S&P 500 fell to 3,873.33 with a 0.72% loss, whereas Nasdaq 100 dipped to 11,861.38 and Dow Jones to 30,822.42, a foreboding report from FedEx ultimately sees its stock prices going down by a staggering 21.40% to 161.02.
The Euro / Dollar currency pair ended the week by returning firmly above parity, slowly climbing to 1.0015 with minor gains. GBP/USD slightly decline to 1.1412, recovering from a low of 1.1370. AUD/USD traded higher at 0.672 after considerable fluctuations, as the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be available tomorrow.
The inflation data for Canada is also to be released on Tuesday, USD/CAD rose to 1.326 with a high of 1.3307. Gold futures surged to $1,687.1, then closed at $1,683.5 an ounce. Despite the major Chinese city of Chengdu having lifted its lockdown measures, WTI crude futures decreased to $84.76 a barrel.
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Upbeat US economic data increases mega rate hike betsEUR/USD 🔼
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Investors seem to have braced for a 100 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as US retail and labor market data indicated an improving economy. August’s retail sales figures reported a 0.3% increase over the original estimate of 0.2%, while Initial Jobless Claims exceeded expectations by only adding 213,000 to the unemployed population.
Thus, the US stock market and indices are still firmly in the red, with a slowing pace but still downward nonetheless. Nasdaq 100 went below 12,000 to 11,927.49, losing over 1.7%; Dow Jones was last traded at 30,961.82, and S&P 500 slipped to 31,124.68.
The yellow metal took the news especially hard, gold futures plunged and closed at $1,677.3, then stabilized at $1,672 to a two-year low. A tentative deal has prevented a railroad strike, which would increase price levels in the US, and WTI oil futures were cooled to a closing price of $85.1.
EUR/USD closed just next to parity at 0.9999, as the Eurozone CPI has a projected growth of 9.1%, the same as last month. The market anticipated a 0.5% decrease in UK retail sales, while GBP/USD slipped to 1.1463. AUD/USD was on a gradual decline, closing at 0.6702. USD/CAD climbed to 1.3227, currently at 1.3240.
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US Stock market recovers slightly after sell-offEUR/USD ▶️
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USD/CAD ▶️
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Upon the release of the US Producer Price Index, a -0.1% reading met market expectations, while a minor decrease in price levels has allowed some breathing space for the stock market and other major currencies. NASDAQ 100 just recovered 0.84% to 12,134.40, Dow Jones up 0.1% to 31,135.09, and S&P 500 gained 0.34%, currently at 3,946.01. A slowed dollar rally maintained gold futures prices at $1,709.1 an ounce.
The UK Consumer Price Index recorded a growth of 9.9% on year in August, considerably more optimistic than the estimate of 10.2%. As a result, GBP/USD closed at 1.1535 with modest gains. Euro retold its woes as last week - failing to stay above parity, briefly peaking at 1.0022 and slumping back to 0.9977.
Australia’s employment figures were less cheerful, despite less employment and a higher jobless rate, the AUD/USD pair still traded slightly higher to a closing price of 0.6748. USD/JPY fell and stabilized at the 143.0 level to 143.15, and USD/CAD traded flat at 1.3163.
US crude oil inventories added 2.44 million barrels, over market projections of a mere 830,000 barrels, WTI oil futures fluctuated between $86 and $90 a barrel, finally closing at $88.48.
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US Inflation missed the target, gold and stocks are downEUR/USD 🔽
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USD/CAD 🔼
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Rate hike expectations were heightened once again - as the US CPI readings revealed an 8.3% year-on-year increase in August instead of 8.1%, while month-on-month was up by 0.1% against a -0.1% estimate. The market then feared the Federal Reserve will resort to even more aggressive rate hikes to control inflation, in the range of 75-100 bps.
As a result, the stock market and all three major US stock indices recorded significant losses, and gold futures also followed. After taking a nosedive, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 are currently at 12,033.62, 31,104.97, and 4,037.12 respectively. Gold futures were last traded at $1,708.7 an ounce, suppressed by a greenback with renewed strength.
Meanwhile, other major currencies suffered heavily as well, EUR/USD fell sharply back under parity to 0.997. The interest rate decision from the Bank of England was postponed to next week due to the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, and GBP/USD also dropped to 1.1491. The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.673, losing over 150 pips in the process.
On the flip side, USD/CAD enjoyed a rally to 1.3167, and USD/JPY is edging back to the 24-year high, with a closing price of 144.55. Undecided between increasing demands and inventory projections, WTI crude futures mostly traded flat at $87.57 a barrel.
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Where are commodities heading to? Beyond 2022Where are the meat or commodity prices heading?
Meat prices have been rising at a rate of about 3% per annual over the last 40 years.
Meat is what I classified as an edible commodity, so is corn, wheat and rice. And as these commodities start picking up in prices, they are the one that will give the central banks a huge headache and to consider to hike its interest rates than the other commodities in the CPI basket.
Why is this so?
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars or petrol, but not without food. Therefore, there is an urgency for the policy makers to first take care of the basic needs of the people.
Content:
. Long-term direction of Live Cattle
. Trading ideas
. Investing ideas
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
A little hack here to project the coming CPI data and also to know how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rate hike - you may consider to track the development of these edible commodity prices, if it is still trending up, we should be expecting a higher CPI and interest rates.
Example on Live Cattle Futures:
0.025cts = US$10
0.10cts = US$40
145.00 = 1450 x US$40 = US$58,000
From 144 to 145 = US$400
Low inflation estimates reversed the greenback’s gainsEUR/USD 🔼
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USD/CAD 🔽
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After a long run of a strong dollar, investors are warming to the idea of slowing US inflation, expecting a falling CPI and a stagnant core CPI. As a result, other major currencies are able to recover against the greenback. EUR/USD retreated from a high of 1.0193 to 1.0119, while the latest German Economic Sentiment Index readings will be available later this afternoon.
GBP/USD increased to 1.1679, the country still awaits what the new monarch and prime minister will bring to the country amidst a multitude of challenges. The Australian Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded to 3.9, and the AUD/USD currency pair then climbed and stabilized at 0.6880, finally closing at 0.6887.
On the other hand, USD/CAD declined to 1.2991, gold futures were last traded at $1,740.6 an ounce after reaching $1,745.3. A standstill nuclear talks with Iran have stalled the hopes of adding one million barrels of oil per day to the market, hence WTI oil futures rose to $87.78 a barrel.
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Queen Elizabeth has passed away, ECB raised rates by 75 bpsEUR/USD ▶️
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AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔽
USD/JPY 🔼
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The United Kingdom is in a somber mood upon their Queen’s passing, GBP/USD fell to 1.15 with minor fluctuations. Across the English Channel, the European Central Bank has followed the Bank of Canada with an aggressive 75 bps rate hike, to a total of 1.25%. Meantime, EUR/USD traded flat and closed at 0.9994, just managed to recover to 1.0052 today.
In the US, the Federal Reserve’s persistence to control inflation leads to a hawkish path of monetary tightening, overpowering the dovish Japanese yen, the USD/JPY pair was mostly stable and last traded at 144.09. On the other hand, USD/CAD closed lower at 1.3091, citing slightly higher oil prices.
Crude Oil Inventories increased by almost 9 million barrels, despite the market estimating a minor depletion. Nonetheless, WTI oil futures moved up slowly to $83.54 a barrel. Gold futures rebound from a low of $1,715 an ounce to $1,720.2, closing with minor losses.
Although Australia experienced lower inflation than other major countries, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia did state it took the central bank by surprise, and AUD/USD dropped to 0.6751.
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Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔼
USD/CAD 🔽
USD/JPY 🔼
XAU 🔼
WTI 🔽
Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7.
EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight.
The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar.
Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel.
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Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.
Background on edible commodities:
Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.
An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil.
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food.
Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates.
Content:
. Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates?
. Technical studies
. How to hedge or buy them?
Rice Market:
91 Metric Tons
$0.005 = US$10
Example -
$0.01 = US$20
$18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000
From $18 to $19 = US$10,000
If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
USOIL Sep 2022 W.1: F&T ForecastFundamental Forecast
-There are several stories unfolding in the energy space that should keep volatility elevated across energy markets, none of which are likely to find any permanent resolution anytime soon.
-Net-long positioning in the oil futures market remains near its yearly low, and its lowest level since August 2016.
-The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests that crude oil prices have a mixed trading bias
Technical Forecast
The trade ideas are derived from the both the monthly and weekly time frames. On the monthly, the price recently closed with a bearish candle below the mini double top neckline and in between the short-term moving averages, dis-confirming the bullish half a bat pattern and the moving averages bullish trend, in confirming a bearish drop for the 3rd Monthly Key Lvl/Monthly Neckline 3 together with the 21/50 moving averages.
Monthly Chart:
Weekly Chart rundown:
As you see in the first chart image, we're looking a 3 possible scenarios that will either confirm or disconfirm the bearish bias. Starting with how it will be rejected, the price will do so after it has bullish broke and retested the Weekly Neckline together with the 50 and 8 moving average. If it bounces off the 2nd Daily Key with a bearish candle formation that leads the price to bearish break and retest the 1st Weekly Key Lvl either on the current or lower time frame, that will trigger and fully confirm the bearish trend.
That's it for today. I hope you gained value from this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section. I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
Cooled private employment readings lower nonfarm estimatesEUR/USD 🔼
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Yesterday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment change tracking the private sector showed 132,000 workers joined the labor market, significantly lower than the expected 300,000. The lackluster result raised doubts about the nonfarm payrolls provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also has a 300,000 estimate for the month of August.
If the official figures also disappoint, the Federal Reserve is more likely to opt for a 50 bps rate hike rather than a 75 bps one. However, USD/CAD still managed to rise to 1.3127, currently trading at 1.3161, Canada's GDP growth was at 0.1% as predicted. USD/JPY first closed at 138.96, then reached a record high not seen after 1998, jumping to 139.53.
Regarding other major currencies, EUR/USD briefly went below the parity level again, but soon recovered to 1.0057. Eurozone’s headline inflation rate slightly surpassed original projections at 9.1%, and investors expect tonight’s German retail sales to record fewer losses. GBP/USD slid from 1.1692 to 1.1622, while the Aussie declined to 0.6839 against the greenback.
Gold futures declined to $1,726.2 an ounce. Yet another pipeline maintenance from Russia to Europe tightened the energy supply on the continent, and despite falling Crude Oil Inventories, WTI oil futures dropped and stabilized at $89.00 a barrel, before closing at 89.55.
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