Will MCX Crude Palm Oil touch the 900?Currently, MCX Crude Palm Oil (CPO) shows an uptrend. By following the ADX, we can say that the trend will rise because ADX is greater than 25 (ADX>25) , and +DI is above the -DI .
Let's have a look at the volume. Volume spikes double of the average, so this also shows an uptrend, and it will go to the 900 - 920 - 960+ .
Right now, the trend is crossing the parallel channel.
If it is excess, then Crude Palm Oil will start to fall to the following targets 836 - 810 . It can be said by following the parallel channel.
Commoditysignals
GOLD Is it time to break above its 2 month Triangle?The 2 month pattern on Gold (XAUUSD) is a consolidation within a Triangle formation. The chart on the left side clearly shows the Lower Highs trend-line to break. There are high chances to do so as the DXY is declining while the stock market is recovering. The immediate intra day target would be the 1,933 Resistance. If that breaks to I expect 1,975 within a week.
The chart on the right side is on the 1D time-frame and shows clearly how the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been applying selling pressure for more than a month. Another rejection there can be catastrophic for Gold as typically in such cases the market loses confidence and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is tested. So keep an eye on that too.
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the current bearish leg is forming a sequence similar to the September 01 - 14 leg = Death Cross, followed by a Triangle bottom. The signal is invalidated if the Channel breaks the Lower Low trend-line.
Target: The 4H MA200.
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XAUUSD Head & Shoulders scalping opportunityPattern: Channel Up into Head & Shoulders on the 4H chart.
Signal: Sideways within the Right Shoulder.
Target: Range within 1895 - 1911.
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OIL Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H (inner/ blue and outer/ black lines).
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 4H MA200 is holding, (B) Sell if the 4H MA200 breaks.
Target: (A) 42.00 (just under the Higher High trend-lines of both Channels), (B) 37.50 (just above the Higher Low trend-line of the inner (blue) Channel Up).
Most recent Oil trade:
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GOLD testing the 1D MA50. We need a cross to confirm bullish conSimple MA approach here. Since the early 2019, Gold reproduces the same pattern: Channel Down on the 1D chart, which break to the upside 1 month after the 1D MA100 (green line) breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue line). In the meantime the RSI is consolidating within 35.000 - 60.000.
So what does this mean for now? Well Gold is currently testing the 1D MA50 but the MA100/MA50 hasn't happened yet. A closing above the 1D MA50 doesn't confirm the bullish continuation, the cross does, so I am in no rush to add to my Gold portfolio. Unless the previous Lower High of the Channel Down is crossed (1975).
Where will you buy? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Bloomber Commodity Index - Monthly; Despite all the noise...... the song remains the same.
It is (still) all about the USD and Gold!
... because otherwise the world is swimming in over-supply!
Gold Bullish Sentiment Personality, I feel that we have met the GOLD bottom for the year. Possibly forever.
Well, my $1830 target 🎯 missed by $12, but that's OK.
So, why do I think the bottom is in the past?
Dollar Devaluation
The US Fed has devalued the dollar through a number of tools. This has and will have an effect on the equity & commodity markets. See, when the dollar is weak, the equity markets will rally - this has an implication that there will be no stock market crash any time soon.
How the FED actions affect the market - ->
In addition to this, as long as the equity markets rally and DXY remains weak Gold, silver, lumber, and agricultural futures will rally.
Dollar Devaluation impact - - >
Gold & Silver as a store for value.
It's no secret that the DXY currently isn't the best for storing value as a reserve currency. Near-term bonds & yields are also at record low levels hence making it unattractive for hedge funds to stick to the traditional 60:40 portfolio allocation models as central banks are already flirting with the possibility of negative interest rates. So, what can they use as a store for value?
[* Mining
If you follow gold mining, you already know that there has been no gold discovery recently. This translated to basic demand-supply economics means that the price might shoot up. See, gold demand is going to rise in 2021. Last month's delivery of gold from futures was high and this is going to rapidly rise as we approach the December deadline for the GC1! continuous futures. You could also trade the VANECK gold miners ETF for a nice highly correlated compounding trade.
CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA
Hedge funds remaining bullish with record high net positions seen from last week's report with 323k long positions open.
On the other hand, we are in volatile times, therefore, be careful. We are not yet out of the woods. Price is currently testing a breakout from a descending wedge. If it successfully stays above the $1912 support level, it's safe to assume that $1960 and $2000 are the next targets.
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Will October be Déjà vu for NATURAL GAS?Quick observation here. NG traders that are deep into the commodity's technical dynamics agree that Natural Gas is trading on patterns that are cyclical on the very long-term.
If cyclical behavior and seasonality play a big part on this, then why should the month of October be any different? Every 4 years since 2012, NG makes a bottom around March-April, then rises aggressively up until October, which initiates a pull-back. That pull-back appears to be a Bull Flag for a new High a few months later.
Will history repeat itself?
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WTI OIL just formed a Golden Cross on 1D!Oil is under pressure since Friday as it got rejected just short of the 41.70 Resistance. However as you see on the right chart (1D time-frame), that formed a Golden Cross, which is typically a bullish formation. Interestingly enough, the price action since the August high resemble that of early March - late May (when Oil formed a Bottom).
On the 4H chart, symmetry is having its way as we have 2 perfect contacts on the 41.70 Resistance and 36.60 Support already. If that pattern continues to be symmetrical, we may see a bounce on the 38.85 (or close) Interim Support (or Pivot however you may want to call it), as it happened on September 21.
Which pattern do you think will weigh more on Oil? The 4H Resistance/ Support or the 1D Golden Cross can make it finally break above and towards a new High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent Oil signal:
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MCX Nickel Detailed Trend Forecast & TipsHere, I have used Elliott wave theory, Fibonacci Retracement, and MA ( 30 & 62 ) to identify the next move. At present, MCX nickel in a corrective wave. We may see a reversion bounce off here. It can be up to 38.20% to 23.60% of the retracement level. Wherein, 38.20% retracement level will act as a resistance and 50.00% vice versa.
In other words, nickel will start raising for 1076 - 1090 - 1100 level. Dynamic resistance breakout will lead the prices for a 23.60% retracement level. Intraday or positional trader can hold 1080 level.
If nickel breakout the strong support and 50.00% retracement level, don't buy. That can slip immediately for a 61.80% retracement level.
Also, don't forget to wait for a crossover of MA 30 & 62.
GOLD Will this be the longest Bull Cycle in history?Gold has started a new Bull Cycle (since the late 2015 bottom) that was confirmed after it broke above the $1380 5-year Resistance in mid 2019. The U.S.-China trade war peaking at that time and recently the massive money stimulus from the Federal Reserve creating inflation , Gold has already reached new All Time Highs.
The recent 2 month pull-back shouldn't worry long-term investors. We have entered a new era in money supply and this alone can be enough to sustain this new Bull Cycle to extreme Highs.
On this chart, I plotted the previous two Bull Cycles (1976 - 1980 and 2000 - 2011) on the current one. We see that the first one (1976 - 1980) was far more aggressive, reaching higher (marginally) but being shorter (considerably) than the second (2000 - 2011). The current Cycle (2015 - now) seems so far to be like the second and if it wasn't for the U.S. - China tensions and now the massive COVID stimulus, it would have been even less aggressive. As soon as new balances are found, we can argue that this Cycle too might reach (marginally) lower Highs than the previous too, while being longer. Of course it doesn't have to be symmetrical as my projection shows but that serves as a good illustration to make my point reach out.
That is the "Theory of Diminishing Returns" on economic asset classes that rise through time, and is the same as the one I have published on Bitcoin a few years back. That theory suggests that no matter how strongly an asset rises through time, every time will be less aggressive than the previous one.
Do you agree with this? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 27 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
GOLD bullish formations on key time-framesGold has closed last week in strong fashion as it registered the highest close since September 21, a few points shy of the MA50 on the 1D chart (blue trend-line on the left chart). This may be to many (and to be honest technically it is) a strong Resistance level, but in the last 12 months that level along with another formation, create a very bullish structure for Gold long-term.
** The 1D time-frame **
That is the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame. As you can see on the chart, every time the MACD makes a Bullish Cross and Gold is trading below or on the 1D MA50, a very aggressive rally follows. In fact in the last 3 occurrences since November 2019, Gold rallied +17%, +11% and +21% respectively, following such a series of formations.
** The 4H time-frame **
At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the smaller time-frame of 4H (right chart). As with 1D, that two at first glance waves a bearish signal as the price is almost on the Lower High trend-line of the Channel Down (blue channel) that started after the August 17 High and just broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which last time initiated a sharp drop.
However I can't overlook the fact that the 4H MA50 and MA200 are close to forming a Golden Cross (happens when the MA50 crosses above the MA200). Since December 2019 (I couldn't fit that on the screen), that technical set-up has also kick-started a very strong rally. It is interesting to mention that this set-up always comes a few days later than the 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Additionally, the 4H RSI is near the level (77.000) where the 4H Golden Cross is typically formed.
Are those patterns bullish enough for you to deliver another aggressive rally or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Will GOLD Hit the 50000 this Weekend?Overall it's a descending trend. According to the Stoch RSI, It will continuously fall. So, intraday traders can sell GOLD now nearby dynamic resistance (DR) trendline for the target of 50000 - 49600 .
If gold will breakout the DR, don't selloff.
At present, we have chances to see the following levels before this weekend: 50560-50700 .
Please keep your eyes on the Stoch RSI and moving average.
GOLD The 1D RSI hit the March levels! Time to buy or not yet??Gold ( XAUUSD ) has been under heavy selling pressure lately as not only does it follow the stock markets lower but is also hit by its negative correlation with the recent rise on DXY . As it happened in March, it appears that the market puts (the highly speculative Gold contracts) and stocks in the same risky basket and instead rush to DXY as safe haven.
** The RSI **
What I want to share with you today is that Gold's RSI has just entered the 35.000 - 30.000 Buy Zone, which it last touched in March. In fact this Buy Zone has been holding since the August 2018 market Bottom of 1160! Every time Gold has made contact with that Zone, buyers used it as accumulation and a sharp rally followed. So it is obvious that it is a very reliable technical buy level for long-term traders/ investors.
** The 1D MA300 **
In addition to the above, there were a few times (March - May 2019 and March 2020) when the price along with the RSI Buy Zone, also made contact (or near contact) with the 1D MA300 (green trend-line on the chart). Right now, there is a significant Gap from where we are now (1870) and the 1D MA300 (1650).
Will it get filled as in March or is the contact with the RSI Buy Zone good enough to accumulate buyers again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
P.S. For those who recognize the analysis, this is a repost of the idea below which I published on September 24 and got deleted. I am publishing it again in order to be used for future reference reasons:
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Descending Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the Support making a Double Bottom event, while the MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 40 (right on the Lower High trend-line and the 4H MA200).
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XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level while the RSI is forming a top pattern (sideways) near its 1.5 month Resistance.
Target: 1860 (roughly above the Support).
Most recent XAUUSD signal:
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Gold glittering on positive stimulus hopes...new month new levelGold prices Gold declined after a back-to-back advance as the first American presidential debate disappointed the market by giving no clarity regarding their policies and stances. If USD is to weaken as the stimulus package accord seems far away, gold could make its way back. Technically holding above 1880 and close abv 1889 could rise again to test immediate resistance at 1900 and 1905. Buying on dips is suggested.
SILVER buy signals.SILVER, D1: Support line + Side of Bollinger bands + Hidden divergence + Oversold + Hammer
NATURAL GAS Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: (A) Buy as long as he price trades above the 1D MA200 (orange line) (B) Sell if it breaks below it.
Target: (A) 2.700 (right below the Resistance) (B) 1.650 (right above the Support).
*Note: the RSI is near its 1 year Support Zone. Only once this failed to initiate a bullish sequence.
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XAUUSD Buy SignalPattern: Head and Shoulders on 1H.
Signal: Buy as the price is consolidating on the Right Shoulder.
Target: 1,960 (bottom of the neckline/ symmetrical Resistance).
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GOLD The 1D MA50 held! Potential rally ahead.Gold has completed a series of successive touches on the 1D MA50 (blue line) without breaking it. Ever 1D MA50 contact since March 31 has initiated aggressive rallies (+11.50% and +24.30% respectively) within the Channel Up. Additionally, the MACD about to make a bullish cross for the first time since June. Coincidentally that was when (roughly) the price last rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Assuming the less optimistic scenario of a +11.50% rally takes place, that puts XAUUSD's target at $2130. Do you agree or is it far fetched?
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XAUUSD Scalping signalPattern: Head and Shoulders on 4H.
Signal: Sideways as long as the price trades within the 4H MA50 and MA200.
Target: The MA50 (for sell) and the MA200 (for buy).
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