GOLD Sell setupHi traders:
Similar like my analysis on Silver, Gold is also shaping up to have the bearish continuation price action.
We see the HTF price action is beginning to show us the reversal movement as structures continue to develop.
We first see the bearish push down follow by the larger correction. Followed by another bearish push down, and once again, develop a larger continuation correction.
Latest price action shows us a LTF quick impulse down, currently at the bottom of the HTF structure.
We see the LTF correction is in the making, very good sign for that continuation to happen once correction finishes.
Look for further downside opportunities once we see the structure completes.
thank you
Commodity
Silver look for these 2 sell entriesHi everyone:
Both Gold and Silver are developing into more bearish price action as we see.
Here on Silver, we see price had the clear bearish impulse down from the previous highs, and begin to form this large continuation correction.
Price had a few swing highs and lows, good indication this structure can be completed soon.
Latest price we see a LTF push down, followed by a correction in the making.
I see 2 possible sell options, either
Option A to wait for that LTF correction to complete and look for sell stop entries
or
Option B to wait for one more push to the upside, and wait for reversal price action on the LTF.
Thank you
Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 09-13Gold finally had a breakout from the range it had got stuck in since last 5 weeks on the back of a lower dollar mainly though many other reasons attributed to its rise as well. With U.S presidential elections out of the way though Donald Trump hasn’t yet conceded formally and is taking a legal route to salvage/make up lost states, it seems pretty clear that the Democrat contender Joe Biden has won with quite a margin and his victory in itself has raised an unequaled amount of uncertainty as its obvious from his mandate/speeches that he will overturn most of the decisions/policies instated by the Trump administration be it geopolitical or fundamentals keeping the world on toes again. Not going into politics much since its a drama of its own, the absolute state of the world remains fragile with new cases hitting milestones almost everyday which is a matter of concern as the 2nd wave of the pandemic looks more brutal than first given the fatalities and the speed of spread though historically the 2nd wave generally is less damaging so again a confusion generator. Economic data is still not confirming the ongoing effect of the coronavirus hit growth as it continues reflect recovery which also may just be an eyewash. With winter almost knocking at the door, countries will find it really hard to battle the pandemic which generally worsens even more in such climatic conditions. Lastly on vaccine front there remains no confirmation of any nor any in consideration for FDA approval, thus the economic outlook remains grim and this should bode well for the yellow metal. To watch next week – Brexit endgame and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold had a big green bar after many weeks which not only broke the consolidation/triangle pattern but also closed above $1950s after a gap of 6 weeks. This move not only wiped out weak hands (as the retail trap was successful) but also placed gold into a highly bullish trend on technical aspect which had gone missing even as fundamentals were lending really strong support to the price. The breakout was long awaited which now should remain a clear case for new highs and with dollar still pursuant in breakdown the shine is back for gold. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1963. If this is crossed it can move towards $1989. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1208.
2. Bearish bets remain out of the scene given the breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls emerged out of the consolidation stronger than ever pushing the price back above the previous highs ($1921) as dollar continued to fall. A significant rise in uncertainty also contributed to the length of the green bar as the virus cases continue to rise auguring fears of a total lockdown again as partial or region specific ones are not that effective in curbing the spread. Also the change of presidency in U.S remains a huge cause of concern given its earlier drawn implications and the mandate of the voted president-elect Joe Biden which suggests most of the policies/decisions of the Trump administration will be overturned sending shockwaves to the global economy again. Until last week’s move gold was fundamentally buoyed to a great extent but now the technicals have gained more light as the pattern/consolidation breakout suggests a fresh leg of upmove which should lead the price to a new high and also this move/breakout allows gold to resume the rally towards $2700 plus.
Bears remain cornered post such a bullish breakout.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1963 for the targets of $1989 and $2008 with a stop loss placed below $1951. Longer term target $2033.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
The Most Important Levels for GOLD After The ElectionIn this technical analysis I will describe the most important levels for Gold at the moment. I will walk you through each of the levels on the chart and explain how you can use them.
Based on empirical evidence, we can observe that the election moving in favor of Biden is good for the price of gold. We have seen that as Biden moves closer to a victory, the price of gold has moved linearly up as well. The future value of conclusions often get included straight away into the price, so don't expect a huge volatility spike after the final results are live. Instead, the real volatility is happening at this moment.
This also leads to common mistakes by traders. For example, if a future decision would be expected to lead to an increase in price, people start already buying the asset when the probability of that decision happening gets higher. Now, when the actual decision makes the price can even decrease as the only thing that truly happens is calibrating the height of the earlier expectations with the actual moment of the decision. The price only moves based on the difference between the recalculated probabilities and the actual price, and not based on the final decision itself.
Let's now look at the most important horizontal zones for Gold and why I added them to the chart.
Horizontal Support Level II
This is a place where we can find really solid support. The level around 1850 is a relatively low price area where the price movements have bottomed earlier on. It is not likely that the price will move anywhere below it soon, and as such this horizontal level can be used for a stop loss on any long trade.
Horizontal Support Level I
This zone is important mostly for determining if the price trend continues. The price is very bullish, but after a sudden spike up there is often a retracement. This horizontal zone can be used to see whether there is some support to continue a second bull trend.
Horizontal Resistance Level I + II
The first and second horizontal resistance levels could be a great level to be used for placing a take profit. Both of these have proven to show resistance earlier on and the price might face resistance here again. Especially zone II is very interesting here as it is near the psychological level of the $2,000 mark for gold. I suggest placing any take profit for a long position at least slightly under $2,000 to maximize your chances on taking profit.
Horizontal Resistance Level III
Level three can also be used for a bullish target setting. I expect that after breaking through each of the subsequent horizontal levels, the price will consolidate for a while between the levels. Especially for scalp traders, the moves between zones I, II and III can be great to get a few trades in on smaller time frames such as the 5m, 15m and the 1h.
Horizontal Resistance Level IV
All-time highs are a massive area of resistance. It is often very difficult for prices to break through areas like that. I would suggest exiting any long positions at this point as it is very difficult to estimate sane levels of take profit and stop loss above areas where the price has ever been before. If you decide to hold above it, think of using a strategy such as trailing stop loss to give some help of leaving the trade.
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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 02-06Gold yet again had an indecisive week just moving inbetween the support and the resistance which was on expected grounds as it awaits the event outcome. With this year’s most important and crucial event of Presidential Election being just 48 hours away, gold may remain highly volatile as even minute information/misinformation should lead to massive swings since the final result would be a massive decider over how the economy and currency moves forward for the next four years as there is a stark difference between the ideology and handling of both the contenders. This event will dominate the week but there are more news as well which poured in during the weekend with the most important being the surprising and hastily enforced month long lockdown in UK though not a mirror of the one in March but sufficient enough to disrupt economic growth again with other European countries already set for lockdown(s) again starting in first week of November as the spike in fresh covid cases risk overwhelming hospitals and other medical facilities. The surge in the new cases are not only seen in the Europe but the U.S as well which might also go for a lockdown post the election if required to flatten the curve again. This situation across the world is not at all a cause of surprise as historically seen the pandemic never ceases until after wave 3 and here it is just the start of wave 2 with many countries still under the influence of wave 1 and with winter coming it does look like a long dark road ahead as most promising vaccines (if any) wont be out before mid 2021. Thus the fundamental aspect of gold has overshadowed the technical one in terms of bullishness for the moment as the yellow metal offers maximum protection against uncertainty. To watch next week – U.S presidential election, Fed meet, BoE meet and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold formed a red bar retracing back to the support as it awaits the direction though this may only be a retail trap since the trend never changed as both technical and fundamentals strongly support higher prices and with last week’s announcements it certainly clears the air over possible reduction in uncertainty in near future. Gold still remains in the breakout gaining additional support from the last month’s candle which suggests reversal as the downside maybe over. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1886. If this is crossed it can move towards $1901. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1921.
2. Bears still weren’t able to pull the metal below the support making their wait longer.
Bullish view – Bulls failed to hold $1900 as they were again tested with the metal falling back to the support and finally settling back comfortably above it which shows the nature of the trend which remains bullish until it changes which looks a sight quite far away as the global uncertainty remains at highs with many countries reimposing lockdown(s) due to surge in virus cases which should remain a cause of hindrance to the economic growth if any. This year’s most important event of U.S presidential election could also play the catalyst to a directive move after days in consolidation. Fundamentals remain overly supportive for higher prices whereas technicals still lack direction as the metal remains in consolidation with a bullish bias.
Bearishness still fails to entice.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1890 for the targets of $1901 and $1921 with a stop loss placed below $1876. Longer term target $1945.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
SUGAR is testing an important monthly structure 🦐SUGAR is testing an important monthly structure, a static resistance, and dynamic resistance (trendline purple).
The price created even an ascending channel on a weekly timeframe.
IF the price will break the monthly and weekly resistance, and turns into support, we can see a nice bullish impulse, According to Plancton's strategy, we can set a nice order
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Two Major Decisions on GOLD After Successful Head & ShouldersIn this technical analysis I will build upon my successful previous idea where we used a head and shoulders chart pattern to identify a likely short position.
Now we are about halfway that trade, we reached a more difficult position on gold. First, you can review the previous idea here:
Let's walk through the most important points on the gold chart at the moment when you're either in the trade or when you are thinking of entering a new one soon. Overall you need to try to find a place that is relatively low to enter your longs or exit your shorts. We use technical indicators and chart patterns to identify those. Right now I suggest one of two options to identify such a temporary low price.
The horizontal support zone:
Option 1. This could be a place of potential reversal. Exit your shorts and enter your longs here
The parallel channel:
Option 2. Look at the bottom trend line as a place of potential reversal. Exit your shorts and enter your longs here as well.
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Gold to reach $1930 once again.Gold - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1905
Levels close to the 38.2% pullback level of 1900 found buyers.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Weekly pivot is at 1905.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 1905, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Posted double bottom formation at 1895.
Our profit targets will be 1927 and 1992
Resistance: 1927 / 1992 / 2075
Support: 1849 / 1763 / 1689
Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 26-30Gold remained in consolidation/range with week’s candle mostly mirroring the previous two with the exception of the body of the candle which didn’t match as the actual movement was less than $2. Gold managed to have a closing above $1900 again simply suggesting the tone of the market which by all means remains bullish as uncertainty is near the highest level with U.S elections knocking at the door along with the pandemic unleashing a strong 2nd wave forcing countries to rethink total lockdown again due to massive jump in fresh cases. Actual situation might not be what it is being projected through the stock market and the economic data which may well turn out to be just an election gig or alas the famous old saying “money never sleeps” should kick in supporting the upmove since the fatal crash in March. On vaccine front, mixed signals everywhere with few countries rolling out their vaccines and others waiting for the FDA approved one which will definitely be a very tough ask. To watch next week – Earnings, stimulus talks and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold made a repetitive move again demonstrating the lack of direction before any big event as it always is the case. It might look worn out on the upside but this could be the way to shake off retail positions before a directive move. Technically gold still remains in the breakout as the pattern supports are being held quite smartly as is the 20 day moving average. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1921. If this is crossed it can move towards $1945. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1963.
2. Bearish bets remain absent in such a scenario.
Bullish view – Bulls reclaimed $1900 again on account of a falling dollar and sharp rise in uncertainty owing to upcoming U.S presidential elections and surging virus cases across the globe as 2nd wave of the pandemic takes the center stage denting economic recovery if any. Moreover the lull in gold price should not be mistaken for an exhaustion as it simply awaits a direction which should likely happen post Nov 3 event and the move is expected on the upside given the safe haven aspect and a perceived breakdown in dollar. Technicals might not be that supportive/conclusive at the moment but fundamentals remain strongly in favor of bulls with the price expected to make fresh highs till supports are held.
Bearishness continues to remain out of context.
On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1915 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1904. Longer term target $1963.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
XAU/USD - SHORT set-up Explained Using Chart PatternsIn this technical analysis I will break down the major things happening to GOLD at the moment.
After hitting a recent all time high gold has been dropping ever since. First we found a very strong rejection and later a more sustainable and clear downtrend.
There are currently two main technicals that I want to emphasize for this next trade. First of all we can see a descending parallel channel. This channel shows the slow average bearish sentiment that gold is enduring. This gives me a bearish bias on my next trades as well.
Since we are seeing that the price is relatively high in this descending channel we can get a short trade in with a very good risk reward. The reward would travel all the way to the bottom and the risk would be a stop loss on a breakout of the top.
Another symbol that is bearish is the head and shoulders that is most clearly seen on the 1H. In this 4H chart you can still see it relatively clearly. This is a bearish chart pattern.
Together I believe these suggest a short trade set-up. All other info can be found on the chart.
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Disclaimer!
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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 19-23Gold replicated last week’s candle with just a difference in direction and a notable higher low on weekly timeframe, thus still remaining in consolidation/range bound. With the U.S presidential elections now mere 15 days away and a massive surge in new virus cases forcing most of the European countries into partial lockdown again, uncertainty is really spiking up now which should definitely bode well for the yellow metal. Movements in the asset classes are likely depicting a setup/speculative positioning as none are showing any sort of linear/paired move which usually happens when the markets are relatively calmer and it would be real harsh to blame any asset class for other’s direction in the given scenario. While on technical front gold remains safely pouched in bullish grip with breakouts remaining intact. To watch next week – Stimulus talks, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold mirrored last week’s move but on the downside ending just shy of $1900. A close below $1900 might raise eyebrows again but as mentioned earlier gold had likely found its actual demand zone near $1850s which was its recent low and that this crucial support area ($1920s) might now be not that very superlative. As breakouts remain in play along with 20 day moving average being respected in every fall it clearly indicates the trend which is bullish. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945.
2. Short trades still remain outcast as supports are held.
Bullish view – Bulls failed to hold onto $1900 ending the week just shy of it as the dollar had a green week though this relation might not hold any meaning as markets are busy positioning themselves for the next big event which should cause extreme volatility. This close should not be treated as a gloomy picture at all as the deeper supports/demand zone continues to hold along with pattern breakouts remaining intact. While technically gold remains bullish, fundamentals aiding higher prices continue to pour in as uncertainty and chaos engulfs the world again with virus cases hitting the highest daily count forcing many countries to reimpose strict restrictions which should dent the already slow economic recovery.
Bearishness remains off the table in such uncertain environment.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1914 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1905. Longer term target $1963.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Silver in Uptrend channel.Silver (Spot) - Short term - We look to Buy
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
Prices have reacted from 23.58.
The trend of higher lows is located at 24.00. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels resulting in improved risk/reward. Pivot resistance is at 25.53.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 25.53 and 26.50
Resistance: 24.55 / 25.21 / 25.53
Support: 24.00 / 23.75 / 23.51
Gold Intraday Setup.Gold - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1910 (stop at 1915)
Prices have reacted from 1910.
This has resulted in a large symmetrical triangle formation being posted on the intraday chart.
The trend of lower highs is located at 1910.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1910, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 1893 and 1849
Resistance: 1927 / 1992 / 2075
Support: 1849 / 1763 / 1690