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Commodity

Gold’s weekly outlook: April 05-09Gold made a stunning recovery from the lows creating a very bullish candle majorly on back of increased uncertainty due to the raging pandemic. The pandemic led fear is just heightening as more and more countries push for stricter measures to curb the spread of the virus in the ongoing 2nd wave even after milestones getting achieved in vaccination drives. The most terrorizing part is the dislodging of economic recovery as lockdowns are the only solution when people fail to understand the gravity of the situation and this is probably happening due to the irrational thought process that post vaccination the virus would not be of a concern and the life would run like ever before, and this is also the reason behind the rapid spread of the virus in the current wave which is more deadlier given the highest death rate doing rounds nearly daily. For gold its certainly a win win situation given it is the safest haven and the last week’s tremendous technical show adds another level of bullishness to the yellow metal. To watch next week – IMF meeting, Fed minutes, Powell speech and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a massive bullish candle as it recovered after hitting the low which also strengthens the bullish case as it created a double bottom which is a major reversal pattern and one which was due for fully confirming the uptrend. This bounce after making double bottom pattern was pretty easy to anticipate as such is the ferocity of major reversal patterns. Probably the low has been confirmed and the journey towards new high has begun which will get fueled further once the gold breaks out of the flag/consolidation. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Bears got a chance only to get deceived again as gold created a major bullish reversal pattern excepting the evergreen scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another victory as the low got retested and the pattern of double bottom affirmed the trend further. The week had a nasty start with the bulls having a tough time protecting the supports but once they were able to defend the low which was crucial to remain in the game there was no looking back for the price as it recovered sharply to close in the green which in turn created a super bullish weekly candle. Fundamentals remain supportive for gold since the pandemic began and now technicals too have turned exceptionally bullish after the double bottom pattern which should now allow the yellow metal to break free of the flag/consolidation on the upside which it is in since weeks. Bearishness fails to garner any attention again. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1735 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1725. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
USD CAD (Dollar Loonie) Here on the loonie we have a potiental shark pattern or 5-0 pattern setting up. it is either a bullish 5-0 pattern or bearish shark pattern. We are hoping to see price hit the horizontal yellow line and move down; however, there is a major resistance level just a few pips above the pattern. So, i expect to see PA move a bit into the resistance area and get rejected. i will want to see some type of confluence on the oscillators too, along with some structural pattern. Sorry for not going into it any deeper I am behind on some school work and I am also getting back into the 4H time frame trading gonna slowly get down to the 1H again. I am also in the process in making a few courses as well that covers harmonic trading along with a myriad of other topics. When the courses go live i will upgrade my TradingView package to Premium and advertise them on my TradingView.
Short
by ARegularGuy
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 29–April 02Gold had a negative outing after 2 weeks of upside from the lows as the rise in dollar likely prevented gains for the yellow metal. Other than the dollar connection its hard to point towards any other factor since the globe is in similar situation as it was a year ago with virus cases and fatalities on the rise in-spite of large scale scale vaccination drives opted by the countries. In simple words many countries are now grappling with the 2nd wave and some who are going through it already are fearing a deadlier 3rd wave which by all means seems to fit as historically seen such pandemics haunt around for 3 or more waves. Another unseen crisis troubled the world last week as the important trading route of Suez canal got blocked by an extra large cargo ship halting/delaying the smooth trade though it may not be of a major concern. With the major issue of the pandemic still showing no signs of cooling, the economic impact of it will only worsen further as job cuts are back on the cards so are stricter measures and lockdown(s) which could fuel the yellow metal to the highs again as the demand for safe haven is bound to increase in the given circumstances. To watch next week – Important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a red candle following 2 green ones as rising dollar limited the gains plus the down move can be attributed to a simple retest of the smaller channel/flag breakout as well. Technicals out-rightly sound bullish given the breakout in smaller time-frame plus the ongoing bigger channel movement on the upside/top as the bottom has been hit already. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Bears continue to find themselves isolated as another bullish breakout thwarts the shorts except the scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another victory even in the red week as they were able to breakout of a smaller channel/flag in lower time-frames. The situation across the globe certainly pushes for the bullish case as well given the mounting uncertainty arising from the ongoing pandemic which is not willing to even take a break rather it has fueled even more fears of a deadlier 3rd wave as vaccines are not helping much against the new variants. Coming to the technicals, another bullish breakout confirms the ongoing trend which should lead the price to the top of the channel/flag if not break it finally. Bearishness continues to remain off the table post another bullish breakout. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1737 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1728. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 22-26Gold continued its upward momentum as it made another conclusive green candle majorly on back of technicals aided by a rise in uncertainty due to the pandemic’s wrath as it forced more countries to take stricter measures to curb the spread. The pandemic has been the talking point for more than a year and is still going strong in-spite of various vaccination drives as it continues to wreck havoc by destabilizing the economic activities as more and more countries are vouching for lockdown(s) to prevent the 2nd wave from reaching the peak but historically such pandemics have 3 or more waves before they get normalized/neutralized. In such a condition where the uncertainty is a cause of immense worry be it the virus or the inflation fears gold remains the best and the safest asset class due to its characteristics. To watch next week – Powell and Yellen testimony, BIS summit and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made another green candle closing above $1740 mainly on technical grounds as dollar and yields remained elevated. The forward movement confirms the trajectory of the price which should hit the channel/flag top if not finally breaking through it. Gold has been flagging since past many weeks and given the current global situation it might finally break the flag pattern on the upside. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1755. If this is crossed it can move towards $1771. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1789. 2. Bearish bets still don’t find any value except scalp trades given the ongoing trend. Bullish view – Bulls had another decent outing as they continue to move towards the flag/channel top. The up-move was mainly credited to the technicals but dire fundamentals also aided as the pandemic refuses to die down rather the 2nd wave sweeping the globe seems stronger than the first as the mass vaccinations are also not helping much forcing countries to revisit lockdown(s) and other strict measures which would definitely dampen the economic recovery/growth if not pausing it. The momentum sides with the bulls and for the price action to remain in the uptrend bulls need to defend the supports and the mainly the low created. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1746 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1735. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 15-19Gold finally had a good week where it closed above the $1700 comfortably after testing the lows of the channel/flag which to a great extent suggests a near term bottom if not a reversal. A lower dollar contributed to the rise though higher yields remain a botheration as inflation fears still loom around while this co-relation of the inflation with higher dollar and a lower gold might not work all the time given the other fundamentals issues sweeping the globe again as in the rising covid cases with increased death rate which could hinder economic recovery as most countries are reimposing strict measures and lockdowns to curb the spread. The virus is almost mirroring the last year when it started to multiply even after various vaccination drives which raises confidence issues over the efficacy of the vaccines while fresh side effects complicate the matter even more. The current situation does act as a perfect recipe for higher gold price as fears of an extended economic uncertainty/disruption looms again given the spiraling virus cases world wide. To watch next week – U.S Fed meet, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meet, earnings and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a successful green week after 3 red candles quietly suggesting a near term bottom formation as the price bounced from the lows of the channel/flag which itself oozes bullishness. This reversal is more of a text book compared to the present volatility(false breaks) seen across asset classes as the move was widely expected given its simplicity/ease to chart. The flag low has been tested and the price is now expected to test the top or even finally break the flag on the upside altogether. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1727. If this is crossed it can move towards $1740. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1755. 2. Bears failed again missing the opportunity to change the trend in their favor as the flag/channel remains intact except the evergreen scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls breathed a sigh of relief as the price reversed after hitting the flag/channel bottom which although was widely expected. Bulls not only did manage to protect the flag but they surged higher above the $1700 comfortably even on back of higher yields as technicals played its part along with the worsening fundamentals as covid cases are on the rise again with increased death rate forcing many countries to reimpose stricter measures and lockdowns to contain the spread. For now the technicals have turned bullish with price expected to be on the uptrend till the flag/channel low holds. Bearishness yet again failed to grab any attention as the flag/channel remains intact. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1731 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1721. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 08-12Gold had another red week with $1700 also getting breached on closing basis as dollar continued to pile on gains due to inflation fears/rising yields but the move was highly predictable with the low almost touching the channel/flag bottom. Yet again the stimulus news as in the senate passing the stimulus bill came out in the weekend which should kind of repeat last week’s moves with gold expected to gap up along with equities as this development should prompt the dollar to reverse gears back to the downside again though the finale (the bill becoming the law) is expected before 14th March which should keep the related asset classes volatile. The pandemic related uncertainty remains at highs as the cases across the globe are on the rising trend along with increased death rate even after the rollout of vaccines which definitely is a concerning issue as it continues to impact economic recovery/growth. In such a scenario where the uncertainty still looms gold remains the safest haven amongst all asset classes. To watch next week – Stimulus, ECB meeting, inflation figures and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a poor outing again where it failed to stay above the $1700 mark broadly due to an increased dollar though the path was highly predictable since it remains in the channel/flag. The bottom of the flag/channel is likely hit or might get retested again which should prompt a notorious reversal since the price movement happening in yellow metal is largely technical in nature given the current downside is not at all fundamentally supported. The flag remains intact with a high possibility of a reversal if the low stays put else it might travel a bit more inside the flag on the downside as well though the stimulus bill getting signed and becoming the law should be enough for providing the push for a reversal if not happened till yet. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1716. If this is crossed it can move towards $1727. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1740. 2. Bears remained in action again as the price continued to decline but they were unable to break the flag which keeps the scalps active only and not positional. Bullish view – Bulls lost $1700 as well but the move was highly predictable as the price bounced from the channel/flag low keeping the bullish trend alive. The bulls have another weekend on their name as the stimulus closes in to become the law which should not augur well for dollar and like last week provide the push to the yellow metal through a gap up. For bulls to stay in the driving seat they need to defend the channel/flag from getting broken. Bearishness remains on the sidelines as the bullish pattern stays intact. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1705 for the targets of $1716 and $1727 with a stop loss placed below $1695. Longer term target $1740. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
E2M - ASX Gold/CopperRule of thumb is gaps get generally get filled, looking to take some profits off the table at the yellow trend line then ride the rest. RSI poised for a break out with Bullish divergence. I believe commodities are pretty close to breaking out and i don't mind this for a near term trade, there is still a chance for more downside action but long term PMs will rise significantly. E2M has more drill results inbound so hopefully they can produce some numbers to help along the trade. (Not financial advice- DYOR )
ELong
by DylanWikki
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 01-05Gold had a promising start as it took out $1800s but faltered in the due course of the week due to a sudden spike in dollar index mainly caused by inflation fears/rising yields which triggered a selloff in equities as well. The previous low was broken quite easily suggesting that the double bottom pattern might have been a short term bounce indicator and not a fulfilling reversal pattern at the given time but still there can be a good chance that gold could gap up validating the double bottom pattern again as the expected stimulus got approved in the weekend which should not bode well for the dollar. Coming to the fundamentals, nothing absolutely nothing has changed rather jitters of another horrific first half of the year looms as virus has sprung back into full fledged action in many other countries as well prompting fresh lockdowns and other restrictions which could make the economic recovery agonizing again. Such a situation where fears/uncertainties have resurfaced even after vaccination itself suggests the required path of the yellow metal as it remains the safest haven amongst all asset classes. To watch next week – Powell speech and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a $50 red bar registering another low as the previous one unexpectedly didn’t provide much of a support to pursue the golden pattern of double bottom but gold still remains in the flag which is all the more important and the low registered might have been the bottom or in another perspective the metal likely still has more room to travel on the downside to touch the bottom around $1680-$1700 before a rebound. The whole story regarding failed double bottom can be retold as a successful validation if gold gaps up above the $1755 which is a probability as the expected stimulus got passed in the weekend. The break of low should not be considered as a short given the bullish pattern(flag) still holds and in fact a strong rebound is on the cards once the channel/flag low gets tested. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Bears did get their share of the pie after the bottom broke and the price just skidded to the lows but it remained as a scalp than a positional given the bullish pattern of the flag still holds. Further short scalps towards the flag low can be expected. Bullish view – Bulls had a wonderful start to week but gradually the greenery faded to an extent the low got broken in a brisker pace but all is not lost except the pattern of double bottom which too has a probability of being reinstated as a large stimulus got passed in the weekend which should be a not so good sign for dollar. For bulls the flag remains intact so the security of the longs also remain in place and the case could be the low of the flag/channel is already hit or in another view the scope for further correction remains limited to the flag lows of $1680-$1700 which if holds could see a sharp rebound towards the top of the flag. Fundamentally bulls remain buoyed as current situation across the globe is more or less mirroring the last year when the virus had started spreading while the technicals remains cautiously bullish as the support of the flag is looming around. Bears can get some scalps towards the channel/flag lows as the broad trend remains bullish. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1741 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1732. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator