Levels discussed during the webinar 30th March30th March
DXY consolidating along 102.60, break to the 102 support level
NZDUSD: buy 0.6250 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: buy 0.6720 SL 20 TP 40
USDJPY: wait for retrace, buy 132 or 131.80 to 133 TP 100 SL 30
GBPUSD: no trade, look for price to test 1.24
EURUSD: buy 1.0870 SL 20 TP 50
USDCHF: sell down 0.9160 SL 20 TP 55 (hesitation at 0.9140)
USDCAD: further downside, sell 1.3535 SL 40 TP 80
GBPCHF : Sell 1.1330 SL 30 TP 60
GOLD: no trade, chill (buy 1980, up towards 2000 SL 1975)
Commodity
Gold Outlook 30th March 2023Similar to the DXY, Gold has been trading with no clear directional bias with the price fluctuating along the 1965 price level
Anticipating further downside on the DXY and as Gold maintains supported by the upward trendline, look out for a possible breakout to the upside.
A confirmation of the move to the upside would be signaled if the price breaks above 1980, but the key resistance level of 2000 is likely to hold strong.
However, anticipate choppy price action as the market adopts a risk-on sentiment, which is likely to lead to some shift away from Gold.
Gold Outlook 29 March 2023Gold continues to trade with no clear directional bias as the 1970 resistance level continues to limit significant upward moves.
As the DXY consolidates between 102 and 102.50, Gold is likely to maintain within the current range of 1936 and 1970.
Although the longer term view of the US Dollar is for further weakness, the current retracement on the DXY is presenting some downside potential for Gold.
Look for Gold to trade down to the 1936 key support level in the short term.
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down.
So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ).
It was a calculated risk and probability count.
USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering.
A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call).
From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs.
Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%).
All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover.
Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
Gold Outlook 28 March 2023The double top chart pattern discussed yesterday on the H4 and H1 timeframe worked out nicely as Gold broke below 1970 to trade down, pausing at the 1945 price level.
Although the price retraced slightly higher, Gold is likely to continue trading within the wide range of 1936 and 2000 (1970 the mid way mark), with the key resistance level proving very hard to break beyond.
Only a significant move on the DXY could see Gold develop a stronger directional bias, with a move to the upside the more likely scenario.
In the short term, look for the price to retest the 2000 key resistance level.
SHORT OIL USD (WEEKLY TIMEFRAME)
Oil looks in correction phase after reaching the support demand zone at area 64 and currenting heading back up to the downtrend upper channel possibly at area 75.
Oil is still in its downtrend channel and possibly next target, if the support breaks, into next support and demand zone at area 50.
Gold Outlook 27 March 2023On the H4 timeframe, Gold forms a double top chart pattern (20th March & 24th March) as the 2000 level holds strong resisting further upside moves. On the H1 timeframe, a similar double-top formation is formed on the 24h of March.
It is likely that the recent strength of the DXY and the formation of these chart patterns led to Gold trading lower, to the 1970 price level.
If the price of Gold breaks below 1970, this would not only signal a confirmation of the double-top formation on the H4 timeframe, it could indicate further downside for Gold, with the next support level at 1936.
However, while the uptrend on Gold is still strong, in the longer term , look for potential buying opportunities.
USOIL OUTLOOK (27th - 31st March)With central banks having to promise they would deal with the liquidity crisis that is apparently everywhere and avoid another 2008-style meltdown of the industry.
Crude oil prices came off their lows as the near-term outlook for the banking sector improved, easing concerns about an economic slowdown later in the year.
Markets are also holding out for more cues from an OPEC+ meeting next month, with hopes that the cartel will cut production in response to a recent tumble in prices.
Oil has failed to break supply at 70.11 for the past three days which price is likely suggesting the efforts to convince the public that all will be well are not exactly being successful.
If price fails to break and close above 70.11-70.34 range I see selling opportunity towards major support at 66.85 if broken would see price tap into demand at 66.33-64.31 range where there could be possible reversal or a continuation.
Gold Outlook 24 March 2023Gold approaches 2000 again. But it looks like Gold could reject 2000 again.
The last time when Gold reach the 2000 level (and breached it slightly by forming a new high of 2008) the price retraced down to the 61.8% fib level, which was 1940 price area.
A confirmation of a stronger retracement to the downside would be signaled if the price trades below the 1977 price level which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
However, anticipating further downside for the DXY, it is likely that Gold could continue with the uptrend.
Therefore, look for buying opportunities on retracements of Gold, with the key resistance levels at 2000 and 2070
easyMarkets Gold 4-hour - Quick Technical OverviewAfter a sharp decline on Tuesday, Gold is now balancing slightly above our 38,2% retracement on the Fibonacci. Given that we have the Fed rate announcement on Wednesday evening, we will take a cautious approach and wait for the decision first, before getting comfortable with either of the short-term directional moves.
From the technical perspective, a break below the 1935 zone may invite a few more sellers into the game, possibly clearing the way towards the 1915 area, or even the 50,0% retracement.
However, to get comfortable with the upside scenario, we prefer to take a conservative approach and wait for a move back above the 1960 hurdle first. This way, the path towards the psychological 2000 area could opened once again.
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Gold Outlook 22 March 2023Gold retraced strongly following the move to the 2000 price level. Forming a head and shoulder pattern, Gold traded down to the 1938 price level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement price level
The next directional move on Gold is going to be highly dependent on the volatility of the DXY, especially with the FOMC interest rate decision due.
In the short term, if the price breaks below 1933 (the 61.8% fib level), gold could continue trading lower, down to the key support level of 1914.
However, in the medium term, anticipating further DXY weakness, look for Gold to bounce either at the fib level or the 1914 support level to continue with the uptrend to retest the 2000 price level again.
Levels discussed during the webinar 21st March21st March (might not be alot of trading opportunities)
DXY consolidating possible breakout down to 103
NZDUSD: too late, no trade
AUDUSD: buy above 0.67 SL 20 TP 20 (small trade)
USDJPY: break 131.50 SL 40 TP 80
GBPUSD: retrace down to 1.22
EURUSD: likely to up to 1.0760 but not great RR trade
USDCHF: sell below 0.9280 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: watch video for the setup with upside & downside potential
GBPJPY: buy from bounce of support 159.00 SL 50 TP 300
GOLD: retest of support, look for buying potential
Gold Outlook 21 March 2023During the trading session yesterday, Gold broke above the round number level of 2000 to reach a high of 2009.55.
However, the move higher was brief as Gold quickly retraced to consolidate along the 1982 price level.
Further upside is anticipated for Gold if the price stays above the support level of 1960 which coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline.
However, before the price trades higher, Gold price could consolidate/retrace first. In addition, an upward move in Gold could require either further downside on the DXY or increasing market uncertainty, driving investors toward the safe haven commodity.
If the price breaks above the recent high, the next key resistance level is at 2070.
Levels discussed during the webinar 20th March20th March
DXY retest bearish trendline, down to 103.50
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6260 SL 25 TP 50
AUDUSD: buy above 0.6735 SL 20 TP 40 (later than NZDUSD)
USDJPY: below 130.60 SL 30 TP 60 (quick)
GBPUSD: Buy break of 1.22 SL 80 TP 160 (BOE Decision Thursday)
EURUSD: Buying above 1.7 SL 20 TP 100 (trailing stop loss)
GBPJPY: buy from bounce of support 159.00 SL 50 TP 300
GOLD: climb to 2070, if price closes strongly above 2000
Gold Outlook 20th March 2023Gold traded significantly higher last week, due to several key events;
1) gross market uncertainty increased as banks collapse (SVB and Credit Suisse).
2) flight toward the reserve commodity
3) weakness in the DXY
Currently, the price is retracing and is trading along the 1973 price level, with further downside expected. The price is likely to test the support level of 1956 which sits between the 23.60% and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement levels.
However, as the uptrend of Gold remains strong, anticipate the retracement to be brief with the price likely to rebound from the support to trade higher again.
The next key resistance level is at the round number level of 2,000 which was last visited in April 2022
GS Commodity Index ChartLooking at the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and how the prices went up dramatically from the Covid lockdown, i would say that there is still room for a final rally, before a major correction in 2024.
The chart is self-explanatory.
Looking forward to read your opinion about this.
🥇Gold🥇 Analyze [Road Map!!!🗺️(03/19/2023)]Hi everyone, today I want to update the 🗺️Gold road map🗺️.
It is better to look at the previous roadmap that I published on Feb 7 in the 8-hour time frame. (Gold is moving ✅well,✅ according to the analysis).👇
Now we have to look for the end of the main wave 5.🧐
The end of wave 5 will most likely be in the 🔴resistance zone($2,114.9-$2,062.7)🔴 and 🟡Time Reversal Zone(TRZ)🟡.
Of course, according to the fundamental news, Gold seems to touch the resistance zone and resistance line easily.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), Daily Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe
Silver - Are you ready? Hi, this is my new update for Silver. This week we got a big green weekly candle (+10%). We lost a big support level 2 weeks ago around 21.50$ and now we are above it again, I think that was beautiful bear trap. Right now we have smashed all daily and weekly moving averages and we are getting back the bullish momentum on daily chart. Another thing that is bullish in silver chart is that we are in a bullish expanding triangle and I expect we are going to break both the trendline and the the resistance around 24.40$ on this wave.
XAUUSD Small pull-back but bullish long term.XAUUSD is at the start of a new long term bullish wave as per the MACD (1d).
At the same time this suggests that a short term pull back is possible with the MA50 (1d) a standard Support level during uptrends.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1880 (over the MA5 1d and rough -3.40% as per November.
Tips:
1. The MA100 (1d) provided the necessary long term Support twice. As long as this holds, the long temr trend will be bullish.
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Silver Turning Up For Minimum Three Waves
Silver made strong and impulsive rally since September 2022 till February 2023. A sharp drop in February from 24.50 and break below 22.50 supports suggests that metal is in a higher degree correction. That’s quite strong decline, but due to a five-wave rally earlier, we still see it as part of a complex sharp W-X-Y correction with the support here in the 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and 20-19 area.
We can currently see a nice bounce from the support, but due to sharp leg down previously, we are tracking a minimum three-wave A/1-B/2-C/3 recovery at least up to 22.75 area for wave C or maybe even higher and back to highs for wave 3 of a new five-wave bullish impulse.
Support on intraday dips is at 21.30 followed by 20.60
WTI CRUDE OIL Two buy entriesWTI Crude Oil hit Support Zone (1) and is rebounding.
The pattern has been extremely steady since November and Support Zone (1) has delivered 5 rallies of at least +9.50% each.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy near Support (2).
Targets:
1. 80.00 (near Resistance Zone 1).
2. 77.50 (mid level structure).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support. A common characteristic of all prior rallies since November.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan: