Bearish Shark Harmonic pattern of the CMEAs you can see it formed out the CUP AND HANDLE on the Daily Time Frame.
whereas we can see after breaking out the neckline it filled out the gap of the CME from 45570 to 48460 which is why we saw our initial rally.
After it, however, it formed out the Bearish Shark Harmonic pattern which interprets into a potential Bitcoin correction down to $52,500 or $50,500 before a stronger continuation.
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Best Regards, Reda Souhail™
Cmefutures
Unfilled CME GapsI found Completely unfilled 06 CME Gaps all the way in this market cycle up to date. The lowest Gap is 9665$ - 9925$. The Highest completely unfilled gap has located in 60,165 $ - 57,750 $. This highest gap was almost filled by a wick up to 59,990$ but still remaining as a completely unfilled gap. Since previous days there was an idea among most of the traders that all the CME Futures gaps will be filled sooner or later. We can calculate a percentage of this from the Highest & Lowest price ranges in this market cycle up to date (Bottom of the cycle of 4,210 $ on 13th March 2020 to Top of the cycle of 65,520 $ on 14th of April, 2021) is as follows.
Total no of Weeks = 81
Total Gaps formrd = 81
Total Gaps Remains = 06
Total Gaps Closted = 81-06 = 75
Percentage of closed gaps = (75/81*100%) = 92.6%
Percentage of opened gaps = (6/81*100%) = 7.4%
This calculation says that there is a 92.6% probability to fill CME Futures gaps sooner or later but still there is a 7.40% percentage that doesn't respect that all the way through this cycle.
82k Bitcoin is coming!?As you see bitcoin is closely going out of this weekly triangle, BUT...
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1- We know CME gap for bitcoin is around 48k, so it should be filled. after filling we expect a little correction that can be bearish!
2- We know summer's holidays here! so for next week fund providers will start working again and inject money into the market! so far, a little bearish market is predictable!
3- Look at the RSI and SQUEEZE MOMENTUM. In RSI we see a pullback onto the trend line is shaping. In SQUEEZE MOMENTUM at least we need 1 more bearish candle to come. so again a little bearish market!
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NOW, after all these corrections and bounces I expect BTC to break the triangle from above and grow as the size of our triangle that can see around 80k!
God bless
BTC BULL TRAP?My longer term projection is visible in this chart. When BTC retraces to the 61.8 and 78.6 retracement levels I will be taking a majority of my money out the market (70%). At that point most people will be on board again due to the fomo kicking in. Behind the scenes there is a lot going on with regulation and I think this may be the Catalyst that will bring the market down. This long term projection also lined up with the CME future gaps that are still unfulfilled at 48, 23, 18, and 9k. So I expect we fill the 48k first and go to the retracement levels stated before, then a drop to fill the 23 and 18k gap that aligns perfectly with the -27 fib extension, where I will buy back in a little to catch the potential bounce we see from that area, and then I expect the further drop down to the 9k gap and maybe fill the -61 extension at 7k.
If I am wrong I will still have crypto left to take profit from, which is something I recommend everyone to always do. Be prepared for both sides, and execute when the market moves to either, this way you will always end up with more money n your hands. Which is the only goal there is.
I will upload a similar perspective on XRP as I just use the BTC chart to analyze where the overall market will go, however I do not invest in BTC as I believe I can make more return with other projects. Hope you guys see my perspective and understand what I am saying. If you disagree, let me know+ why, cuz I'm interested.
Bitcoin CME GapsThe “Bitcoin CME Gap” is the difference between the trading price of a CME Bitcoin futures contracts when the market opens on Sunday, and when it closes on Friday.
In 77% of these cases the retracement occurs in the subsequent week, before the next CME market open.
No matter which type of trader you are, never forget: “mind the gap”.
BTC/USD and CME FuturesWeekly View of BTC and CME futures.
CME Futures:
Expire this Friday 7/30
If history is repeating itself, we typically see a nice rally the week of followed by a massive selloff when futures expire.
CME Gaps included in chart
BTC still on the fence, with heavy resistance at 200 Daily EMA. Either way you choose (Bull or Bear), remember to:
Be patient
Find your trade
Make it count
*Not financial advice. Good luck with your trades*
Soybean Futures September 2021 ContractHey there. Just one question, do you see any buying pressure in the Volume Oscillator? No? Yeap me too, so we will strong on short. Price will make(finger cross) a reversal at the trendline and we will be exiting our position in the next resistance turn support.
P/S: My position was entered yesterday at 1412.6. The reason why I posted this is because some of my friend were saying that the price is currently bullish and already making a reversal. Some of them has close their position, I will stick to my plan, which I will exit at the next support area @ 1372. Option 2, I will exit if its break the trendline and has no mean to reverse down.
Good Luck
another trap.max pain for todays CME option expiries is at 32k
it sits at 32k for the next few days, before it jumps to 36k on 7\30
i will start to include this data in all of my future analysis, since option expirations are very important.
i'm thinking the red scenario is the most likely from here, as spy is about to complete it's wave A of this smaller correction.
watch for a bounce from here.
i'm 11x long here, stops at the local low.
be ready in either direction.we don't gamble around here, and entertain both sides equally.
only get into setups which are clean, and safe.
btc is currently in a very strong squeeze on the daily, and is about to fire off hard one of these days.
so long as we don't take out the low from friday, we're game for a move to the upside (to about 39k)
if we do take out the low from Friday, we're buying between 23~25k with conviction.
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if we break up and out of here, view the bull case via:
btc weekend trade idea.double zig zag into the wave b.
target = 39k .
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grayscales average is at 40k, they're gonna get the price up there before dumping their bags.
this idea takes us to their average, perfectly in confluence with the 100\200ema on the daily, right in time for the bearish death cross
weak wave b-> followed by capitulation into wave c (maybe even an extended wave c).
Buy the dip if you want to take a chance this weekend. I'm taking the chance, because that's my job, taking calculated risk for a living.
Let's ride.
Cheers homies.
Wow, CME and Binance has various prices!!CME:
Binance:
So, what it means?
My strategy using Binance chart ONLY.
Binance chart touched 200 SMA Day timeframe - strong short signal.
Because of strong Short signal - I drew 5 downtrend waves.
But CME does not touched!So, my arguments for short are destroyed.
I think its Long time.
BTC1! BTC CME - 12hr Death CrossBTC CME Death Cross (50/200ema)
BTCUSD Death Cross occurred 21 May 2021 with a substantial reactionary drop of roughly 26%
Always be prepared for the bear case - it creates opportunity!
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
Bitcoin Futures v Spot: A Tale of Two Bities. It was the best of trades, it was the worst of trades. Look, I had to get that one in.
This update is a quick answer to an email received on CME micro bitcoin futures. To trade or not to trade?
Answer: there are pros and cons here.
Some points:
Micros are very algo driven with the May contract currently looking heavy from just one participant stacking bids and offers. Weird. That will change.
Not trading a lot of volume yet. That will change.
Full sized contract (equals 5 bitcoins), with margin close to $100k, is too rich for most.
Micro contract (1/10th of a BTC) is a good entry level size.
Wider bid/ask spreads on all futures contracts compared to spot. It will change should the product develop.
Futures have far lower comms than spot coins.
Commission example: Crossing the spread (buying 1 and selling 1 at market) in the micro burns $6 in price plus say $2 for (expensive) comms round turn. That’s $8 to play a contract size of $4535. That’s in and out.
For spot, Kraken for example charge up to 0.26% to buy or sell at market. Even getting in and out at the same price, would cost $23.58 for the same sized trade as the futures. So three times the fees even when the spread size is covered. Coinbase fees are 0.50%.
Comms from one broker/platform to the next very of course and they vary over time, but that’s an interesting example.
Futures downside: liquidity at this stage, but that will change. It’s a new contract. With futures, you also have to pay monthlies for platform and data. Some brokers offer free basic platforms, but the data still costs. Trading once or twice does not make it worth the bother. Spot platforms and spot data do not seem to draw a monthly (for now, but you watch).
Futures are more for active traders where comms matter. Spot is a better option for long term HODLers. Pros and cons.
Not all points covered here. It’s just a start. The CME Groupo site have some great info on futures.
Please like & follow for more updates and dumb references.
Helping the friends at CME with ETHHello CME friends! After my tremendously great BTC signals I am back to help you with this new "crypto thing" called Ethereum. So lets keep things simple and straightforward; why would you trade ETH? Well, I can sum the following reasons:
- ETH has the best fundamentals and adoption in crypto, full stop - period. (when this changes in a few years, you get notified)
- ETH has the best fundamentals for the emerging defi market.
- ETH has outperformed BTC since inception and will surge +178% against BTC in 2021/2022. (check linked post below)
- ETH just broke its ATH and key resistance and will hit 3000$ in May and is likely to 3 or 4x in 2021.
- Everyone loves ETH even though they pay ridiculous
Do you need any more reasons?
For my crypto followers; ETH is a very young asset on the CME exchange; as you can see from the chart; its like a new coin launched on an exchange. First a dip and then.... ;)
IMPORTANT: this not financial advice and pure educational - trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Bitcoin in April / May 2021: the road to a new ATH!BTC & CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE: Like I updated last night already when we were right in the action; it is / was time to shop crypto again! I see some people confused over what happened last night so let me explain. First off; to my followers this shouldnt have come as a surprise as I clearly stated that I expected a dump and a recovery right after. You can check my last posts; even my bearish ones and its all in there. We bounced beautifully from the 700 EMA (black line) and the bull market support trend line that was support all the way back in the corona dump of last March. This is a very bullish sign as the last time we bounced off from the 700 EMA we had massive pumps to the upside. (scroll back in the chart to see it)
END OF THE BEAR TREND
So for last week's bearish scenario we had a target of 44K; a target that I stated at a BTC price of 64K already. Now we almost hit the target as we went down to 46K to immediately recover in the same move. So basically everyone who went short on the move down got tricked and stopped out or liquidated as the market maker immediately went for the zone of liquidity; which is obviously bring the price back above 51K. This forced many traders to close shorts or get liquidated which boosted the price even more. My short signal was well above 57K and I would never advise to short a bottom. Instead I closed my shorts at 47K and immediately opened a long after that which is well in profit right now. So in essence; the move down was just to induce traders to go short and grab liquidity (BTC) from them.
BTC MAY 2021
With the upcoming CME futures expiration I expect BTC to stall around 53-56K levels at date of expiration and then shortly after make a move to the upside. This would mean most longs from last month are in loss but traders will see hope for recovery which induces them to extend their future to next month's expiration and we might see some shorts getting closed or liquidated; which will boost the price. So what I project is the BTC price to stay in zone 1 untill futures expiration and move to zone 2 next week / weekend. We might already see a move to zone 2 next weekend given we grabbed enough liquidity around the mid 50's levels. This means we can move easily into zone 3, 4 and maybe even 5 in the month of May. If we see BTC move into zone 6; we might (not will!) go parabolic to way higher price targets but nothing can be said of that right now; however if we break level 6 and move a level higher; we are making a massive move. It is not what I project and thats why the box is red but it is a scenario we keep in mind.
BTC THIS WEEK
At this very moment we are fighting a heavy resistance cluster inside the orange circle; we can break it now or in the next days. BTC could come down again to consolidate inside box 1; which is totally fine. We want BTC to at least stay inside box 1 and above 51K to have further confirmation for a bullish trend. Another point is that we want to see the RSI break the 61,6 levels and set a new high to confirm a bull trend. (green cirlce in RSI) I project BTC to hit box 2 this week and to range trade there until the futures expire this Friday. We will have to see what happens on Friday but I project a move to the upside; however we need to stay sharp to see how the CME futures traders react to last month's price swings. Long live the bull market!