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SPY - 2 Hour / Buyers & Sellers prefer Higher How often does the Market reward both when they are aligned? Not often. Rare to see both seeking Prices to move higher, and potentially why Wall Street will shake things up with a few surprises. Volumes declined significantly yesterday. NVDA reports today. ________________________________________________________ In all probability, they will attempt to entice both Lower and create a chase into new Lows. GDP Revisions may have the desired impact on Thursday. Friday will be the Maximum Mix day with intense volatility. It's what I would do, were it my job to frustrate as many market participants as possible. Areas of interest below for the SPY - 407.35 / 408.11 / 409.88 with the Pivot at 410.2. For Friday's Expiry, the Range is 410 to 416 for Retail, the SPX will lead once again, the possibility of a large but unapparent disconnect is why we see Max Pain fail time and again. Large Traders have been ranging the SPX with a larger sell-side favor intraday as well as into September, on balance they are quite heavily positioned for further downside. _________________________________________________________ What stood from yesterday: The VIX Barely budged, the DX pulled back .88% at one point, while 2YY and TNX stayed within range. News out of the Eurozone was negative in the extreme, with Natgas correlated to Crude indicating - $410 to $500/bbl was fair value. A trap or set expectations, longer term we are very bullish crude, but are positioned for fills between 62 & 77. OIL is showing continued strength as it approaches 95 this morning. I exited my longs this morning. GOLD, not so much - 1687 remains open. Noise, for now, but as long as Crude is moving higher on OPEC's production cuts impending, the SPY SPX ES NQ YM RTY will struggle. Energy is having a marked impact on Price since the 200 EMA touch. __________________________________________________________ Apple appears to be looking at the 164 fill, with the Markets coiling up the break in either direction will be quick and dirty. Crypto looks quite weak, BTC may revisit the 19K level shortly. With the expectations of Markets ranging into Jackson Hole and Powell's 10 AM EST Speech on Friday - Friday is a simply massive Macro Data Day. 8:30 am PCE price index monthly 8:30 am Core PCE price index monthly 8:30 am PCE price index year-over-year 8:30 am Core PCE price index year-over-year 8:30 am Real disposable incomes 8:30 am Real consumer spending 8:30 am Nominal personal incomes 8:30 am Nominal consumer spending 8:30 am Trade in goods, advance 10 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole retreat 10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (final) 10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (final) __________________________________________________________ Financial Media flipped to Seasonal Volatility and a return to questioning the longevity and validity of the move off June's lows - too fast, too much. Fear / Greed Index remains relatively Neutral - tinyurl.com The Federal Reserve has reduced The Balance Sheet by $115.755 Billion. Inflation will remain high for 1 to 2 years according to Goldman Sachs. Trade Safe, patience wins this week as Friday's OPEX will be a criminal affair.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
6
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Crude oil Some thesis: Oil is more than enough worldwide. Supply exceeds demand. Transition to electricity. Shale oil - another attempt to manipulate. Saudi Aramco - is the largest capitalization company in the world (another not a good signal for me). We can propose many fundamental arguments, but this is a virtual trading chart (little connect with the real life). It is a world of financial markets. There are a few arguments from financial markets: 1. Largest players in oil futures are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and City Bank. 2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars (petrodollar). Some people wanted to change the system. Now they are dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie, and possibly someone else. Therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. For example, now you can buy 2 barrels of oil per $100, and if the price is $20 you can buy 5 barrels. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $100 to $30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year about increasing oil production. As you understand, they do not participate in the formation of oil prices cause we see a chart of futures oil. All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened. 3. Most likely, they will use these instruments during the coming falling of the US economy. 4. We are moving in the downtrend channel. 5. Cycles. Best regards, EXCAVO
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EXCAVO
5
CL Daily falling towards up trend lineThe CL daily time frame is in a large up trend. The market is moving from a high price towards a future low price. There is a down Fibonacci with an extension price point 83.55 that meets the daily up trend line. It is expected the market to push bearish towards 83.55 then U-turn Bullish. If the market holds at the up trend line. It is expected the market to push towards all time highs near price point 147.27 about +5,808 ticks above the market. It will be a good idea to stay out of the market until the daily up trend line is hit. Then after the market hits the daily up trend line to look for a bullish reversal before turning to the one hour time frame and looking for long ideas.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
1
Fahrvergnügen - The Traders VehicleTrading pleasure abounds as the FED's non-sense continues unabated. A thrill ride out of Bear Market Territory for ES 3849.50, the NQ was the laggard at 13414. 13392 the larger Pivot for the NQ Futures, a hidden one, but the DOM suits it rather well. "Exiting the Bear Market" is the new mantra, narrative, and fresh bullhorn as we see "Inflation - Come Off" - Bloomberg 24/7 now. A chortle of whores and pimps, typical and to be expected as the Summer Solstice trade grinds on trapping goblins everywhere on the Tape. Ignore the shortages of refined energy products, food, and the things we need to conduct our lives. No, lookie over here easily distracted, memory short degens. ____________________________________________________________________ The FED took off $14B week over week - at this rate, the FED is never going to hit its "Target" @ $90Billion in QT beginning in September. Uber Doves - Khardasian, WIlly, and Bob Evans chicken all decided to don push-up bras and assure us they mean business... Bullard blew an Esmerelda, again. Fed Fund Futures have more intray-week volatility than the VIXen. _____________________________________________________________________ VX Complex - utterly sh_t mixed... but... and there is a very large butt. Vol of Vol is showing signs the Big Lick is developing for a very large return of Volatility. Count on it, plan for it... here is why. The next decline will have a Scope, Scale, and Velocity - unlike the January decline. It will be extremely destructive in very short order for Price. August 22nd to September 4th appears to be in line with expectations. VX Calls carry a massive Prem... obvious expectations. Yes, ahead of selections for Mid-Term grifters. ______________________________________________________________________ The FED is now indicating a "Panic Cycle" (of course it's not) it's simply when they are now pandering to January as the "oops, we broke sh_t" They made it very clear in the FSR that they wanted a 50% haircut... they be serious. Central Bankers Globally are getting a Tate-sized Master Class of MLM from the EuroDollar Primaries... the DX shortage will be extreme in the extreme. ______________________________________________________________________ When Brown Brothers Harriman is looking for a DX collapse... look the other way. _______________________________________________________________________ EuroDollar has one more Chart Print to the Next Plunge. Crash Landings... are not survivable. Sellers of DEC 2022 and MAR 2023 on ES NQ MYM RTY. Lots and Lots of spicy Poots to round out the Meme and FANG fade. When Turbines SIEZE.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
9
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
How to trade OilLooking at CL1! now, a break of Friday's low is a daily-down rotation. Below $100 opens the door back down to the $96.50 area, followed by ~$93 and the 200-day. Oil bulls have not been used to seeing /CL in a downtrend this year. However, that's the case at the moment with the 10-day acting as active resistance, while it's below all of its major short- and intermediate-term moving averages, as well as uptrend support. Longer term, the trend still remains constructive, but /CL is currently vulnerable. On the upside, oil needs to reclaim $105 to $105.50 to unlock $110+ but it will need to do more than that to repair the recent stress on the charts.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bkenwell