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Christmas

Pressure on pound intensifies & apocalypseDespite the Christmas holidays and general calm in the forex market, the pound is dropping. Going below 1.30 is a very bad sign, but given the importance of the level zone 1.2950-1.3000, there is a serious risk of a full-fledged downward to 1.20. If the markets continue to believe in the impossibility of signing a trade agreement between the EU and the UK until the end of 2020, then exactly 1.20 is the mark to which the pound will be lead. Our position on the pound is unchanged: a critical reason for a “soft” Brexit is available and it will be extremely illogical to cross out the results of the efforts of the last three years at the last moment. So, in the medium-term purchase, buying pounds with each 100-point drop makes it more attractive, as the risk level is decreasing and the profit potential is growing. As for intraday trading, while the pound is below 1.30, bears control the situation. Accordingly, there is no desire to go against the market. Therefore, while the pound is below 1.30, we will trade on the intraday basis in both directions. Note that in the “thin” market, taking important levels is often false, so you should be prepared for a turn at any time. Now most pairs have quite interesting entry points. EURUSD, for example, a purchase from support 1.1070-80 with stops below 1.1040 and profits in the region of 1.1150 seems to be a very balanced trade (30-80 risk points account for 70-80 points of potential profit). USDJPY: all bull attempts to gain above 109.50-60 failed 2 times in a row. And if so, then it seems logical to decline to 108.50 region. That makes it possible to open a profitable position. Sale from 109.50 with stops above 109.80-90 and profits of about 108.50-60. The ratio of profit to risk is almost 3 to 1. Let’s back to the information background. World Bank experts frighten of the scale of the new crisis (debt crisis): the debt burden is growing rapidly, both in the private and public sectors, and this is happening not in individual regions, but around the world at the same time. The undisputed leader is China so that it can become the epicentre of global problems. We have been waiting for a crisis for a long time and every day its probability, in our opinion, is becoming higher. So buying safe-haven assets continues to be one of our favourite trading ideas.
Short
by Trade24Fx
An analysis during Christmas Week for BitcoinUnfortunately, my original that I have been working on now for a few days has been wiped away after a refresh of the browser. I am not going to attempt to rewrite what was once written. To break things down quickly, I really just wanted to know if there was any kind of pattern that could be found while analyzing previous weeks that Christmas fell on. I wanted to start with Christmas day and see if it was heavily traded or dead quiet. Then I wanted to expand into the week and see how Christmas compared to the week itself. There is a lot of Data to choose from as to what is relevant and what is not. I will mainly focus on Volume. I shouldn't need to say this but I will anyway. In no way am I "comparing" Christmas week of 2011 with Christmas week of 2019. For far too many reasons than I care to get into, that would just be crazy. I am mostly just looking at the data to get an overall feel. Bitcoin is super young and with only 8 years worth of data on STAMP, it's just not enough for a deep analysis. I will cross reference the overlapping available years with Coinbase to try to get a better understanding and see what comparisons can be made. Anyway, this intro is far too long... Let's get started. I started with the most simple metric available. Christmas day. Bullish or Bearish and by what percent up or down and what the percent equaled in dollars at the time. Let's take a look at 2011 as an example. For 2011 we can see that on Christmas day we posted a daily gain of 1.41% ($o.o6) and the Week that Christmas fell on Posted an 8.84% loss (-$0.42) from the Open on Monday to the Close on Sunday. So the Data for Christmas Day is as follows: Christmas Day: 2011 - 1.41% = $0.06 2012 - 0.69% = $0.09 2013 - 10.37% = $70.26 2014 - 2.63% = $8.42 2015 - -8.37% = -$38.11 2016 - 0.72% = $6.45 2017 - 13.21% = $1838.94 2018 - 0.79% = $30.01 2019 - Wednesday 2020 - Friday The Day that Christmas fell on: Christmas Day: 2011 - Sunday 2012 - Tuesday 2013 - Wednesday 2014 - Thursday 2015 - Friday 2016 - Sunday 2017 - Monday 2018 - Tuesday 2019 - Wednesday 2020 - Friday And the Week that housed Christmas and the results: Holiday Week including Christmas: Monday - Sunday 2011 - 19-25 = -8.84% = -$0.42 2012 - 24-30 = 0.08% = $0.01 2013 - 23-29 = 12.48% = $81.74 2014 - 22-28 = -5.87% = -$19.51 2015 - 21-27 = -3.81% = -$16.68 2016 - 19-25 = 13.41% = $106.07 2017 - 25-31 = -3.46% = -$482.09 2018 - 24-30 = -8.46% = -$341.24 2019 - 23-29 = ? 2020 - 21-27 = ? So, besides 2015, on the Day of Christmas we have posted gains ranging from a low of 0.69% to a high of 13.21%. The Weekly results were far less Bullish as 5 of 8 were weeks that resulted in a loss from Monday to Sunday. The losses ranged from -3.46% to -8.84% while the three weeks that rose from Monday to Sunday ranged from 0.08% up to 13.41%. I wanted to see where the volume sat on Christmas in comparison to the Volume average. Here are the results: Christmas Day Above/Below Average Volume: 2011 - Below 2012 - Below 2013 - Below 2014 - Below 2015 - Above 2016 - Below 2017 - Below 2018 - Below 2019 - ? 2020 - ? Oddly enough, the only Christmas Day that posted negative results was also the only Christmas Day where the trading Volume was above average. That particular Christmas was in 2015 and landed on a Friday. It is also the only Friday Christmas we have data for. The next will be in 2020. From here I wanted to capture the Local and Macro trends from which preceded the Week that Christmas fell into. Here is an example from 2016: Here is the resulting data: Holiday Week Local/Macro Trend: 2011 - 19-25 = Up/Down 2012 - 24-30 = Range/Up 2013 - 23-29 = Up/Up 2014 - 22-28 = Down/Down 2015 - 21-27 = Down/Up 2016 - 19-25 = Up/Up 2017 - 25-31 = Down/Up 2018 - 24-30 = Up/Down 2019 - 23-29 = ?/Down 2020 - 21-27 = ? So besides 2015 (which is suspect for other reasons) and 2017, the weeks gains or losses have confluence with the prevailing or Macro Trend. For 2015 and 2017 price seemed to follow more of the local trend instead of the Macro Trend. Sending 2015 out to the dumpster for obvious reasons, 2017 does make sense as that was the turning point after what we now know was the All Time High. The overall Macro trend was indeed Bullish as we were in Pullback mode but we didn't know at the time that only a handful days before was going to post record highs that we have yet to return to. Potential Results: Certainly nothing as clear cut as I would have liked but interesting nonetheless. Avg Christmas Day came out to a positive 2.68% while Avg Weekly came out to a positive 1.65% from Monday open to Sunday Close for the week that Christmas fell into. Every year except 2015 traded LOWER than Average Volume at the time. Every Christmas except for 2015 (again) posted Gains for Christmas Day from Open to Close with a low of 0.69% and a high of 13.21%. Besides 2015 (again...) and 2017, the other 6 years followed their respective overall Macro Trend when it came to the Week of Christmas. Historically it appears that most December volume is in a decline from the beginning of the month and with Christmas at the end of the month it appears to suffer from very little trading volume as a general metric. Our Macro Trend at the moment is DOWN and our current Volume has certainly struggled to post above average lately. It is a little too early to call the local trend as the last 4 days we have sat in range after a $700 candle to the upside. For Coinbase We could only get data for 2015-2018 but by and large, things were confluent with STAMP. That about wraps it up. I may add to this if some other metrics pop out. Something like the individual volume nodes for the week range and in what place was Christmas Day compared to the others, etc. We shall see... Until then... Merry Christmas
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ChingasX
CHRISTMAS SUPRISE BITCOIN! $9.000CHRISTMAS SUPRISE BITCOIN! $9.000 As we speak bitcoin is at 7.150. If we hold 7.1 at least 7.050 i think we can see a nice Christmas rally! This could end higher then 9k. Why i think bitcoin is going to pump massively in the coming weeks/months?: Bitcoin halvening is in less then 150 days, this means we are going to get a rally before. And then i think begin MAY it is Buy the Rumor, Sell the News. Maybe there is a potential hit to 14k-16k. But for now im only watching to break 7.8 for a HH. If not we are going down again. I hope you will leave your idea! And dont forget to long BTC!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Mikki0416
DAX30 CFD to reach new All-Time Highs for Christmas?After last Thursday's developments in the US-Chinese trade deal, the UK's general election, and the Fed's liquidity announcement, the outlook for the DAX30 CFD is very bright as we start the trading week. The main driver for the bullish action, and the ensuing break above 13,180/200 points resulting in new yearly highs, was certainly the "deal" between the US and China where both sides are said to have agreed on a reduction on existing tariffs, and a delay in those planned to go into effect on December 15. In addition to this, there was the landslide victory of UK prime minister Johnson's Tories in the General election which made a near-term Brexit deal likely and diminished uncertainties among market participants, as well as the Fed's announcement that it will flood markets with $500 Billion in liquidity to avoid a year-end repo crisis (and will thus extend the Fed balance sheet to new record highs by mid-January). That said, we project a bullish DAX30 CFD for the yearly close, with a high likelihood of new all-time highs and thus a push to and above 13,600 points in the coming days. A short-term correction finds a potential Long trigger in the region around 13,280/300 points and a littler deeper around 13,180/200 points, with the mode staying bullish on an Hourly time-frame above 13,080/100 points. Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. www.admiralmarkets.com Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TVC:DEU40Long
by Admiral_Markets
Happy New Year and Do not get Rekted!Hello dear friends and traders. I hope you weren't rekted this year! In 2018: Speaking in terms of investing and trading, we went through a lot, I am convinced that the most difficult thing for crypto is over and 2019 will pass under phase of recovery. I hope the lessons that the market has taught us in 2018 will not be forgotten, and at the new stage of the market you will be able to confidently accumulate profits. Expectations for 2019: It is likely that from January to March there will be some kind of flat and we will test $ 4400-5600, after which we will move into the accumulation phase between the levels of $1900-3200. I save the probability (up to 10%) of a fast wick in the level of $1200 and a quick recovery in the zone of $1900- $3200 After the accumulation phase, a new rally will come and chances to test levels above $8000 will be high. How to make money in 2019: Average your entry from different levels and correctly spend capital as you reach the levels. Turn on additional assistants - bots will help with additional profit, and signals will help to know about the direction of the market. Remember the market cycles and use the RSI indicator for long-term planning. And the most important moment in the New Year - I wish you to pay attention to controlling your emotions during trading, which will help you accumulate profits in any conditions. Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to all! Best regards, Founder of Blackstone Signals Artem Shevelev
BNC:BLXLong
by ArShevelev
7
bitcoin during christmasI think bitcoin is now almost starting the c wave of the 4th wave of the A. We could see something like this play out in the coming days. Volume again is very very low so it could take some time! Since my previous idea i had to relabel the subwaves, if this plays out i will show the count on a larger timeframe pls follow me here on tradingview and on twitter for newest updates and press the like button if my ideas helpt you!! my twitter account: @DaveCrypto83
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by dave83
2
Santa Claus just hit pause on [SPX] bearSanta just hit pause on the "bear" and we are likely to have yet another counter rally. Remember that Santa can only brings so many presents and that we in my opinion are gonna resume the bear when: Scenarios: 1: If we have a shallow retrace, we stop at zone 1 (Fib 0.3-0.5) and the hit "play" on the "bear" immediately. 2-3: If we are going above Fib:0.5 into zones 2 or 3 we are "on pause" properly until beginning of January. The macro picture has not change. I will update as the move progress.
SP:SPXShort
by Mr_Average
Merry Christmas pt.II [bonus game inside]To all the good boys and girls, those where weren't greedy this year and saved for the end: --- Don't be confused by the "cute" little graph, if you are conflicted, know each line is a map. To play the game, you must be smart, being wise and confident, is a good start. Please comment your guess "End of Year" price Then like and follow to win the prize! --- How to win: closest to guess the price on the final weekly candle close (use decimals for uniqueness) The winner: receives a follow from me, and a link to their chart of choice on my updated status here My best guess: I left you a gift right under the tree ;) Enjoy, -racethehair Ps. The Fibonacci Time-Zone is not just for the colors... welcome to "the bottom" and Happy New Year PPs. There are four price pumps (each within 3 candles) on the left of the tree, not just ornaments my friends
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by racethehare
22
Year end rally repeating?Good day folks, Pretty simple setup, VXX made a double-top. The second one was a head and shoulders that seems to be completed (see my previous chart for more info). I’m not a big fan of shorting volatility as I feel it brings bad karma lol. Being long the indexes is basically the same for those who also feel the same. I put 2 targets as we cannot know yet if the neckline of the double-top will hold or not. And it could also rebound for a few days. Target 1 at neckline or 32.00 (cash and wait); Target 2 at support or 26.00. If this pattern works out, the indexes are in for some serious gains. Have a nice weekend,
CBOE:VXXShort
by tipere445
2