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YINN | China LONG | BounceThe fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes) in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") that track the index, securities of the index and other financial instruments that provide daily leveraged exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index. The index consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
AMEX:YINNLong
by DivergenceSeeker
4
GOLD TRIPLE TOP - WAR END?All eyes are on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia that begins on Monday. During the three-day visit, the leaders of the two nations will discuss the deepening of economic and political cooperation as well as the war in Ukraine. If this meeting tends to reach a diplomatic solution to end Russia-Ukraine war then Gold will see a massive sell-off. Also, FED is very likely to add a 25BPS to reach 5% interest rate, kinda expected but it brings more pain to markets. I will keep updating this, follow to get alerts 🔔
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets
BABA | Lets Get It! | LONGAlibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a self-operated retail chain; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Taoxianda, an online-offline integration service for FMCG brands and third-party grocery retail partners; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database and big data, and IoT services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; and Tmall Genie smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
NYSE:BABALong
by DivergenceSeeker
5
CN50 to break lower?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 12812 (stop at 12875) Selling pressure from 13020 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. Previous support located at 12812. The medium term bias remains bearish. Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 12812, which will confirm the bearish sentiment. Our profit targets will be 12630 and 12400 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Short
by VantageMarkets
Furthside downside is expected from CN50.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 13180 (stop at 13260) Buying pressure from 13031 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13180 level. Our profit targets will be 12950 and 12790 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Short
by VantageMarkets
NIO: CHART UPDATE / RSI CYCLES / MACDIVERGENCE / FULL BREAKDOWNDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a Semi-Macro analysis of NIO. As previous chart setup became invalidated with the decline of Price Action a strong support was confirmed at 8.50 Points, the same Support that gave way to further uptrend when touched on Oct 25th 2022. Despite invalidation of past Chart Setup CYCLE ESTIMATION was fairly accurate. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 2.50 Points between Supply & Demand Channels remains the same. 2. Current Trend: Sideways Consolidation 3. Price Prediction: 13 Points by March 31st & will serve as another attempt to breaking upper level of 14.50 Points. 4. TIMEFRAME for 5th CYCLE PREDICTION was drawn out by utilizing the mean average of the past 4, RSI agrees with these cycles of Buying & Selling Pressure. IMPORTANT: RSI needs pullback & is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT Price Action holds above 9.50 Points or at the very least lingers above 9 Points in SUPPLY POCKET. RSI: RSI has completed another cycle by reaching OVERSOLD TERRITORY in the 30 RANGE & is Breaking Trend. MACD: Faster moving average on MACD has confirmed current uptrend on Price Action. Next step would be to see MACD flip & surpass Median level to the upside. (Most crucial indicator in this scenario) SCENARIO #1: In a Bullish scenario Price Action holds above 9 Points or 9.50 preferably for some consolidation & follows cycle with an eventual break of 12 Points making way for a test at 14.50 Points. SCENARIO #2: In a Bearish scenario Price Action deviates from cycle and decides to Break Down 8.50 Points which would be followed by a further continuation of next SUPPORT at 7 Points. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com NYSE:NIO
NYSE:NIOLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
1
CN50 to find support at previous resistance?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13350 (stop at 13245) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is located at 13357 from 13116 to 13599. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13350 level. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 13660 and 14440 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 13180 / 12790 / 12400 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
Hang Seng bounced strongly! Is the China bull back?Something bullish is happening in China, potentially primarily due to the reopening and all the liquidity injections by the PBoC. China never raised rates while slowly adding liquidity to markets. We saw a significant capitulation when Xi became emperor for life by removing everyone that could potentially cause trouble to him from the CCP, as well as when we first saw the first sanctions on China by the US. It's clear that the US and China are in a cold war, and the US will keep imposing sanctions on China... Many of which might come back to bite it. Now there is talk about capital controls, yet China holds many US bonds and has been part of why inflation stayed low for so long. Of course, China has many issues, but so does the US, and what they both have in common is that they will have to print a ton of money. What's critical here is that the Hang Seng has been trending lower for a while, especially since China started taking 'back' Hong Kong, but then started bottoming around peak China fears (never reopening + Taiwan invasion). For now, an invasion seems unlikely, and all the concerns about capital controls could not have the result everyone thinks they will. The market is incredibly oversold, and Chinese investors may be forced to repatriate their capital and start investing there. ''The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well. We say this because the late January and early February market peaks were a worldwide phenomenon. Stocks, Bonds and Commodities all peaked in tandem, suggesting a shift in the underlying perception of the fundamentals from one of continued growth and declining inflation to one of slower growth or recession accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.'' Milton W Berg CFA @BergMilton I agree with Milton, and to me, this looks special. First, HSI bounced right at the Yearly pivot. The bounce came to a massive rally from the lows, which swept the double top, hit resistance, and had a decent pullback. The bounce straight into the monthly pivot, which usually acts as a magnet. So we have gone from pivot to pivot very quickly. When looking at CN50, we get an extra confirmation that something bullish is happening. Again, massive rally, significant pullback, bounce at support, reclaim yearly pivot, a break above the monthly pivot, slight pullback, and sit right above the monthly pivot. Technically both look bullish to me. Only a close of 2% below the recent lows would make me think that the market is about to keep going lower. Until then, I assume that both these markets are in a bull market and that China isn't as uninvestable as many make it seem to be. Of course, if you are a US investor, you shouldn't be investing in China, but for most of the rest of the world, China seems fine (for now). They keep getting cheap oil from Russia, they are politically stable (nobody to go against Xi), won't invade Taiwan anytime soon (based on what they saw in Ukraine), and Japan also kept printing and didn't raise rates (capital flows into China)
TVC:HSILong
by BitcoinMacro
Aussie Dollar - Don't Worry Be Hoppy!China re-opening, widening trade surplus, and a fragile USD to keep Australian Dollar bouncing higher ("AUD") in 2023. The Dollar Index (“DXY”) is sinking through support levels even as the AUD rises past key resistance points. Amid solid tailwinds favoring AUD and formidable headwinds facing the USD, this case study argues for a long position in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures expiring in March 2023. Thus far, the AUD is 2023's top-performing currency. It appears to have raced ahead of itself with near-term consolidation expected before resuming its ascent. Hence, an entry at 0.695 with a target of 0.736 and a stop-loss at 0.668 will deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.52. WHAT DRIVES THE VALUE OF A CURRENCY? Supply and demand for a currency establishes its value. Monetary policy also has an impact on its value. Currencies with high domestic interest rates appreciate while those with lower rates get weaker. Nations enjoying greater trade surplus command a stronger currency. Currencies in high demand for savings, trade settlement, tourism, and education also appreciate. AUD, as a commodity currency, enjoys multiple tailwinds, making it resilient going into 2023. Economic re-opening in China after a shift away from zero-covid stance is expected to increase demand for commodities. Easing political relations saw China secure its first Australian coal cargos in two years. Bullish commodity prices will boost AUD. Australia's trade surplus widened to $13.2B in November when it was expected to decline to $10.5B. Growing trade surplus bodes well for AUD. China re-opening and easing political relationships benefits Australia in more ways than one. Chinese travelers and students are starting to return to Australia further boosting demand for its dollar. AUSTRALIA IS A TOP COMMODITY EXPORTER MAKING AUD A COMMODITY PLAY Australia produces copious quantities of crude and three-fourths of that is exported. Australia is one of the planet’s largest exporters of iron ore and coal. Iron Ore forms the single largest source of export revenue worth AUD 133 billion in 2021-22 according to Mineral Council of Australia. Australia also exports aluminum. As seen in the chart below, correlation between CME Iron Ore Futures prices to CME Micro AUD/USD Futures is tight at upwards of 90% and tends to move in tandem. Bullish Iron Ore prices augur well for the AUD. CHINA IS AUSTRALIA’S NUMBER ONE TRADING PARTNER More than half of every commodity is imported into China. It should be no surprise that China is Australia’s top trading partner. Importing more than USD 100 billion of Australian products, China accounts for more than 30% of all Australian exports. China is the world’s largest steel producer for which Iron Ore is a key ingredient. Predictably, China accounts for 80% of Australian Iron Ore exports. China is expected to remain a key producer and consumer of steel as its One Belt One Road requires huge investments in steel-intensive projects both within and outside its borders. RBA TO REMAIN HAWKISH IN FENDING OFF DOMESTIC INFLATION Australian inflation eased to 6.9% in October 2022 but shot back up to 7.3% in November beating expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) remains hawkish in the fight against inflation as it wrestles to bring inflation down to the 2%-3% target. Economists anticipate that it might take a quarter or two before reaching “peak-inflation” in Australia. Meanwhile, RBA will keep or lift rates higher which will strengthen AUD even more. KING DOLLAR SHEDS ITS SHINE The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the US dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies comprising of Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. The USD rallied strongly in 2022 while investors’ flight to safety tendency demonstrated dollar’s heft as the global reserve. However, the DXY has shed 11.2% since touching a high of 114.778 on September 28 to close at 102.204 on January 13, 2023. Slowing inflation in the US is expected to ease the Fed’s hawkish aggression towards rate hikes. This will force the dollar to further lose its value against other currencies. Anticipating this, asset managers have reduced their net long positions in the DXY by 45% over the last twelve weeks while leveraged funds continue to entrench their net short positions by 3% during the same period. TECHNICALS POINT TO AUD BULLS AND DXY BEARS On January 6, AUD pushed past the 20-day moving average it has tested since December 27. The Bollinger Bands having narrowed until then is now broadening out with the AUD breaking out to the top. With the AUD trading around the Pivot point, it is now trending up and has traded past the first key resistance on January 12. Mirroring the same trend but to the reverse, the DXY attempted to rally past the 20-day moving average, but only to fail and sink below the immediate support at 102.643. The Bollinger band having narrowed until January 6 has given way with the DXY breaking out downwards shedding more than 2% with five daily red candles in succession. A bull in AUD and a bear in USD creates a compelling backdrop for a bouncy AUD in the near term. In vindicating this sentiment, the options open interest in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures shows a put-call ratio of 0.83 pointing to bullish view among options market participants. TRADE SET-UP Each long position in CME Micro AUD/USD Futures (March 2023) provides exposure to AUD 10,000. If AUD moves by 0.0001 point, the Micro AUD/USD future moves by $1. Entry: 0.695 Target: 0.736 Stop Loss: 0.668 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.52 Profit at Target: $410 Loss at Stop Loss: $270 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
CME_MINI:M6AH2023Long
by mintdotfinance
10
The Dragon Bouncing BackSwift dismantling of zero-Covid policy in China has triggered a surge in demand resulting in robust economic recovery. Is this a flash in the pan or a structural shift? Bouncing off from 2022 bottom in early November, Chinese equities (represented by FTSE China 50 Index, "China50 Index") rallied 64% on COVID easing. The rally has stalled based on specific sector weaknesses causing a 12% correction in February. This paper argues that record revenues (over CNY holidays in January), anticipated pro-growth Government stimulus, record-levels of consumer savings, and loose monetary policy will collectively drive Chinese equities higher. A long position in CME’s E-Mini FTSE China 50 Index futures will deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.35x while riding this economic shift. SECOND LEG OF RE-OPENING TO LEAD TO RECOVERY Five reasons support our bullish stance on Chinese equities: First, favourable technical signals. Stalled rally plus weak sentiments have caused the markets to retrace 12%, leaving it right below a key Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests that the FTSE China 50 Index could continue its upward trajectory in 2023 as reopening turns into recovery. Second, pro-growth fiscal policies. Investors hold high anticipation of upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) scheduled for early March. During the “Two Sessions,” the government is expected to make pro-growth policy announcements to boost the economy. Historical analysis shows that the Two Sessions (NPC plus top political advisory body meeting) tend to provide solid tail winds to the stock market. Shares have previously rallied ahead of the meetings and afterwards as investors digest the news. Over the last decade, real estate & healthcare shares delivered the largest excess returns following these meetings. Third, accommodative monetary policies. Meanwhile, PBOC added liquidity into the financial system to meet a rapid rebound in loan demand. PBOC kept short-term & long-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth straight month. Short-term LPR was at 3.65%. Long-term LPR (used to calculate mortgage rates) was at 4.3%. Both are at their lowest level in 20 years as China tries to balance economic growth and currency stability. Fourth, revenge spending. Forced to stay home due to Covid restrictions & unable to spend, Chinese consumers saved one-third of their income last year, depositing RMB 17.8 trillion (USD 2.6 trillion) into banks. Even for a thrifty nation like China, that's massive. With restrictions gone, will Chinese consumers revenge to spend their excess savings? Finally, valuations of Chinese shares are seemingly still in bulls’ favour despite the reopening rally. The MSCI China Index is trading at 10.9x forward P/E, below the 10-year average of 11.2x. In tandem with equity market price retracement, China centric commodities such as Iron Ore and Copper have also stalled. But are looking to rise again. ECONOMIC DATA PAINTS A HOPEFUL FUTURE AHEAD Economic data from China show positive signs of economic recovery in 2023. Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), an important leading indicator of business activity, rebounded sharply in January. GOVERNMENT PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC GROWTH The Chinese government has announced stimulus packages to support its struggling Real Estate and Tech Sectors. For instance, Guangzhou recently committed $29 billion to local tech funds to inject capital into high-tech sectors. The government also announced a 21-point plan in January to boost property developer’s balance sheets with $67 billion in aid. Moving in tandem with pro-growth Government accommodative fiscal policy, the PBOC continues its commitment to accommodative monetary policy by keeping key short- and long-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at their lowest level in almost two decades to boost growth. However, this monetary stimulus comes at the cost of rising inflation in the country. PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ARE BULLISH CHINA AGAIN In a note recently published by Goldman Sachs, the bank expects Chinese stocks to surge as much as 24% by the end of this year as the economy shifts from reopening to recovery. The bank highlighted that "professional speculators" on their prime brokerage platform are showing a greater appetite for Chinese stocks. Goldman highlighted that hedge funds had substantially re-risked their exposure in offshore Chinese equities with net Chinese exposure to total equity exposure reverting to all-time highs. FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE BULLISH CHINA TOO HKEX's Stock Connect program’s north bound flows shows that foreign investors heavily bought into Chinese equities in January and continue to so do in February despite retracement. The Shanghai Northbound Stock Connect, which allows HK investors to access Chinese equities listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) saw net buying of RMB 83.4B so far in 2023. The Shenzhen Northbound Stock Connect shows net purchases of RMB 74.1B this year. In comparison, these investors bought RMB 9.6B of Shanghai & RMB 25.4B Shenzhen shares in December. Besides the connect program, foreign investment into China scaled up in January to the highest level since June 2022. Foreign investors bought RMB 128 billion ($18.7 billion) according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. That was 14.5% higher YoY and a 75% jump in investment into high-tech manufacturing. This spike reversed two months of double-digit drops in late 2022. DEMYSTIFYING THE CHINA 50 INDEX The FTSE China 50 Index comprises of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks that are listed and traded in Hong Kong. The index is specifically designed for international investors to get exposure to Chinese equities. The China 50 index is dominated by large tech stocks representing 23.4% of the index. Bank stocks have a 18% weightage with retailer shares weighing in at 15%. The overall index provides a balanced with a mildly skewed tech exposure to Chinese equities. TRADE SET UP With a raft of Government and PBOC policies supporting Chinese economic recovery amplified by optimistic investor sentiments, this paper proposes a long position in CME’s E-Mini FTSE China 50 Index futures expiring in June 2023 to harvest a 2.35x reward to risk ratio. Each futures contract offers exposure to $2 x China 50 Index. Entry: 12,990 Target: 15,800 Stop: 11,800 Profit at Target: $5,620 Loss at Stop: $2,380 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.35x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
FLong
by mintdotfinance
5
Copper is red hot on China’s reopening, but there is more to itCopper is to commodities, what tech stocks are to equities. They are both historically cyclical but also promise potential long-term growth. Tech stocks were down last year, not because the underlying technologies were dead, but because central banks were aggressively tightening monetary policy. Copper too endured the same fate on account of macro headwinds despite the accelerating energy transition. Lockdowns in China added another layer of disappointment. So, with the macro backdrop changing this year, is the red metal becoming red hot? Markets appear to be endorsing that narrative. What does the demand and supply situation look like? China reopening China consumes more than half of global refined copper with its demand experiencing an eight-fold increase in the past four decades1. Chinese manufacturing activity, therefore, is inevitably a key driver of copper prices (see figure below). Chinese manufacturing activity remained contractionary through August till December last year, as evident from the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. In January, while the number remained contractionary at 49.22, the expectation is for it to pick up in the coming months if lockdowns remain sustainably lifted. China is a crucial source of copper’s green demand too. Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) makers have given rise to a booming industry to the point where BYD is now competing fiercely with Tesla for market share worldwide. Although subsidies for producers will come to an end this year, tax exemptions for buyers will remain in place through 2023. This will further be supported by the rollout of charging infrastructure, a key component of China’s 14th 5-year plan issued in December 2022. A battery EV can require three to four times as much copper as an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle. Similarly, a 200 kilowatt (kW) fast charging station uses around 8 kilograms of copper3. There is a similar multiplicative effect on copper demand from other energy transition applications like renewable wind and solar power, which China is heavily investing in. The supply side In What’s Hot: Dr Copper’s misdiagnosis, we highlighted how copper’s inventories on exchanges are perilously low, a sign of supply tightness which could exacerbate if demand picked up quickly. According to Wood Mackenzie, copper may see a slight global refined market surplus of 170 kilotons (kt) in 20234. But there is considerable uncertainty surrounding this forecast. On the supply side, disruptions such as the ones we’ve seen recently in Peru could play an important role. Peru is the second largest copper producing nation and is responsible for around 10% of global mined production. Anti-government demonstrations in Peru have led to shipments being halted at the 300 kt Las Bambas mine, and disruptions at Glencore’s 180 kt Antapaccay mine, and other mines including Constancia (117 kt) and Cuajone (148 kt)5. The figures above highlight how disruption in supply from Peru can easily tip the copper market into a deficit. While disruption may not be as severe this time as it was when Covid caused mine closures in Chile and Peru in 2020-2021, it could still be meaningful especially if coupled with more demand from China. Market pricing has been moving in response to these developments. The energy transition At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged unprecedented support in clean technology across all sectors of the energy transition. For Europe to remain competitive in the new era of clean energy, it must offer something that can rival the US Inflation Reduction Act. In 2023, we expect more action from US, Europe, and China now that energy security has become synonymous with the energy transition. According to Wood Mackenzie, for the world to be on track for net zero by 2050, 9.7 Mt of mine supply will need to come from projects that are yet to be approved. This amounts to $23bn of investment a year in new projects, 64% higher than the average annual spend over the last 30 years. Conclusion Copper’s long-term demand trends suggest it could continue trending upwards but remain cyclical depending on the macroeconomics. Cyclical pullbacks could create interesting entry points for investors who recognise copper’s structural case. Sources 1 International Copper Study Group’s Factbook 2022. 2 Bloomberg, January 2023. 3 International Copper Study Group 2023. 4 Wood Mackenzie’ report, “Copper: Things to look for in 2023” dated January 2023. 5 Morgan Stanley as of January 2023.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Buying CN50 at current swing low.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13261 (stop at 13101) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 13661 and 13741 Resistance: 13570 / 14235 / 15080 Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:CHINA50Long
by VantageMarkets
TOP CHINESE PUMP ASSETSLet's take a look at the basic metrics of the most interesting assets of the market, which gave a profit of 4x-5x of the investment only on the spot. These assets are considered to be Chinese tokens, which pump the current market Conflux ($CFX) 1. L1 blockchain 2. Price: $0.2 3. ATH Price: $1.5 4. Market.cap: $586m 5. FDMC: $1.4b 6. Changes in the last three months: +1000% Alchemy Pay ($ACH) Solution for payments 1. Price: $0.39 2. ATH Price: $0.12 3. Market.cap: $201m 4. FDMC: $396m 5. Changes in the last three months:: +400% OAX ($OAX) Crypto Foundation 1. Price: $0.23 2. ATH Price: $2.2 3. Market.cap: $18m 4. FDMC: $23m 5. Changes in the last three months:: +250% OKB ($OKB) Native token of the Okex exchange 1. Price: $49.72 2. ATH Price: $50 3. Market.cap: $2.9b 4. FDMC: $14.8b 5. Changes in the last three months:: +300% TRON ($TRX) L1 blockchain 1. Price: $0.068 2. ATH Price: $0.22 3. Market.cap: $6.3b 4. FDMC: $6.3b 5. Changes in the last three months:: +60% What can we do now? Search for new unknown tokens that can be connected to the Chinese metaverse. Search for new narratives. What do you think about these tokens? Share your opinion with us and check our links below. Tell us about other top tokens of the current pump if you have some in mind. Thanks for reading!
by Samura0x
7
ALGORITHMIC MODEL NEO 2023 $120ALGORITHMIC MODEL FOR NEO 2023 with price action prediction. NEO seems to get into a new green view since days ago on the algorithmic trading side. There is a high chance NEO will keep the volume with the days up to break out to the important level of $20, further to the R line of $29. For the year 2023, we expect that NEO can target the $120 USD on more reasons behind the algorithmic trading. Based on further analysis using algorithmic trading, we predict that NEO could reach a value of $120 USD in 2023. This is not a day trading view and not based on the current price, but a target prediction for 2023 know that there is no guarantee at trading, manage always your risk. The info shows a basic chart view where the algorithmic already added before on the chart with more factors and study views. So let's see if this year can bring NEO to a $120 USD price action, and to be exactly depending on algorithm trading it shows a price action of $123
Long
by Goldenbreakout
3