USD/CHF - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. FX:USDCHF
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8689
2nd Support – 0.8619
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Chf
Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.8765
1st Support: 0.8709
1st Resistance: 0.8828
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURCHF: Bottom formed. Aiming now for the 1D MA200.EURCHF is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.619, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 46.597) as after hitting the bottom of the S1 Zone, it rebounded and is now consolidating below the 1D MA50. This is a bottoming pattern and like the two before it in a span of 1 year, it should aim for at least the 1D MA200 (TP = 0.95500).
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CHFJPY expected to bottom soon. Unique long-term buy opportunityThe CHFJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern for more than 2 years (since the September 22 2022 High). More recently on September 16 2024, the price bottomed on its Higher Lows trend-line and the subsequent rebound to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, initiated a new pull-back that broke yesterday below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is identical to the Channel's previous bottom formation in January 2023. The rebound that followed also got rejected near the 0.786 Fib and retraced all the way to the 0.236. Then it started a relentless Bullish Leg all the way to the 2.0 Fib extension. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical and we are at the point where the RSI is about to break below its MA and give the buy signal.
As a result, we turn bullish on the CHFJPY pair, targeting 188.000 (near the top of the Channel Up).
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GBPCHF: Bearish Trap or Opportunity in the Making?On the GBP/CHF 4-hour chart, price action indicates a potential bearish shift after grabbing liquidity above previous highs and sharply rejecting the 1.1200 supply zone, a premium price area.
The market filled inefficiencies within a fair value gap (blue zone) and is now positioned for a potential continuation downward. If price holds below the supply zone, we could see bearish momentum targeting 1.1165 as the first key support level, with further downside potential toward 1.1140.
A break above the supply zone would invalidate the bearish bias, so risk management is crucial, with stops placed above 1.1205. This setup relies on confirmation of lower lows and aligns with smart money concepts for precision trading.
Bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 0.8801
1st Support: 0.8765
1st Resistance: 0.8886
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCHF - The new Treasury Secretary will weaken the dollar?!The USDCHF currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone, and sell in the form of scalps with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair.
Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted in a recent report that the dollar is likely to remain stable through the end of the year, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December. While markets remain divided on the likelihood of a rate cut next month, ING anticipates a 25-basis-point reduction. Turner suggested that such a move, coupled with potential seasonal weakness, could weigh negatively on the dollar. However, amid geopolitical uncertainties and the stronger performance of the U.S. economy compared to the Eurozone, the dollar is expected to remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets.
According to the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, “the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months reached its lowest point in November.”
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, released last night, revealed that some policymakers believe the pace of rate cuts could accelerate if economic activity declines or the labor market weakens. Conversely, some officials warned that persistent inflation might necessitate halting the easing cycle and maintaining rates at restrictive levels. Many policymakers highlighted uncertainty about the neutral rate, emphasizing the need for a gradual reduction in monetary restrictions.
Scott Bennett, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, believes that a weak dollar policy could become a cornerstone of Trump’s second administration. In a letter published earlier this year by Bennett’s hedge fund, he argued that Trump is more likely to pursue a dollar-weakening strategy than rely on tariffs. Bennett stated that tariffs tend to drive inflation and strengthen the dollar, which conflicts with efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing.
Bennett predicted that a weaker dollar early in Trump’s second term could enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industrial production. He argued that a weaker dollar, coupled with cheap and abundant energy, could fuel economic growth. This perspective diverges from Wall Street’s current consensus, which leans toward a stronger dollar. Bennett remarked that dollar strengthening might only occur later in Trump’s term if efforts to onshore production prove successful.
He also pointed to the constraints imposed by tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and budget deficits, which he believes hinder Trump’s economic objectives. Bennett suggested that focusing on deliberate currency devaluation could simultaneously achieve GDP growth, fiscal improvement, and stock market gains—at least in nominal terms.
Bennett stressed that targeting a weaker dollar against the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen could yield more impactful results. He even suggested that such a strategy could allow China to claim it had avoided U.S. tariffs, presenting it as a “win.”
Bennett’s statements carry significant weight given his new role as Treasury Secretary. He also briefly referenced the concept of Bretton Woods 3, noting that while it is not currently a primary scenario, conditions for its realization are in place.
Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel stated that Switzerland benefits from a flexible inflation framework that enables it to respond more effectively to economic shocks. He noted that while the Swiss franc is recognized as a safe-haven currency, this very characteristic can lead to appreciation during global recessions, which may harm Switzerland’s economy. The SNB remains committed to price stability, which Schlegel identified as a key factor in the country’s economic success. He also did not rule out the possibility of a return to negative interest rates.
Potential bullish rise?CAD/CHF has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.62743
1st Support: 0.62401
1st Resistance: 0.63198
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.8989
1st Support: 0.8802
1st Resistance: 0.9159
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8859
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8800
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.8959
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Sell GBP/CHF Bearish ChannelThe GBP/CHF pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1186, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1110
2nd Support – 1.1072
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
USDCHF - Who is the next head of the Fed?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is considering options to choose Kevin Warsh as Treasury Secretary, and it is possible that he will later be nominated to head the Federal Reserve. The decision is still undecided, and Trump will likely make his final decision near the end of Jerome Powell's term in May 2026.
On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, the Bridgewater company has announced that Trump may choose the chairman of the Federal Reserve who will follow his policies more. Because of Trump's economic policies, the US may not be able to reach the 2% inflation target. Trump's plans may increase costs and thus favor the stock market over bonds. Bob Prince, Bridgewater's chief investment officer, said Trump's policies on tariffs, fiscal stimulus and immigration are likely to keep the U.S. from reaching its 2 percent inflation target.
If U.S. inflation approaches 3 percent over the next year and a half, Trump may appoint a Fed chairman who is aligned with a higher inflation target and allows interest rates to fall.
Also, Goolsby, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has predicted that interest rates will drop significantly next year. Referring to the significant reduction in inflation and the state of the labor market, he expressed confidence that the inflation is moving towards the 2% target of the central bank and that the labor market has reached the level of almost full and stable employment.
Potential bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.8861
1st Support: 0.8826
1st Resistance: 0.8908
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?AUD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.57896
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.58224
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.57508
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a reversal from this level could indicate a double top pattern which might lead to a potential price drop to our take profit.
Entry: 0.52198
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.52375
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 127.2%^ Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.51805
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCHF Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.88400 zone, USDCHF was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.88400 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCHF: Potential rejection on the 1W MA100.USDCHF is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.705, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 41.714) but only just came out of neutrality on 1W (RSI = 58.054) despite the fact that it reached the 1W MA100 last week. Since February 2023, the 1W MA100 has been the first level of Resistance, so taking a short now is completely justified technically. The final Resistance thus short entry for us is the 1W MA200, which hasn't closed a candle over it in 2 years. Now that happens to be at the top of the Rectangle (body candles closings only). Either way, we are targeting the Rectangle's bottom (TP = 0.84100).
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EURCHF Channel Down bottoming and giving a buy opportunity.The EURCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 4H time-frame and is on its second Bearish Leg, pressured below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 08.
Having hit the 0.236 Channel Fib, the current forming of Lower Lows is similar to the bottom pattern formed on October 01. Even the 4H RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical, both on a Double Bottom that was the signal to buy at that time.
Our Target is 0.93500, still below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (blue), which was broken during the October rebound.
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