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Channelbreak

GBP/USD Daily Descending Trend line Hi Traders, Have a look at GBP/USD on the 4-hour and daily chart today. Having a look at the Daily time frame, we can see that price has been respecting this bearish trend line since the 20th of February 2022. We've had 5 taps so far on this giant daily trend line. Currently, it looks like the price is pushing to print its 6th tap. Now, we don’t know whether or not this next tap will be the one to finally break us out of this bearish pressure that we have been in for the greater part of 2022. However, if we were analyzing a trend, we can see that this trend is not bullish. Our bias must remain bearish until proven otherwise. Now, I am no fortune teller and I am not one of those traders that say that they can pick out where the exact bottom is. I only trade setups that make sense to me. So having said that, let's go deeper into the 4-hour time frame. This chart shows that price has been pushing upwards, bouncing inside this ascending channel. What do we look for on ascending channels? Usually, we look for a break and retest of the channel bottom. This means we are waiting for a possible bearish break of this channel with a retest of the bottom of the channel. If we see that, we can open up a short position with our targets being previous support around the 1.176 price level. What's interesting to look for is that if this channel breaks to the downside and retests just as the price is touching or tapping the daily descending trend line, well then that gives us huge confluence to go short. To add to that confluence, we have divergence on the MACD Histogram. As price makes higher highs within the ascending channel, we can see the histogram make lower lows showing that the bulls that are there right now might start to run out of steam and the giant daily bears might be biding their time, waiting for that perfect moment to push price back down. To sum up my current thoughts .. Do nothing until shown a reason to jump in. I cannot force these charts and bend them to my will. Therefore, we wait until these patterns present themselves to us on a silver platter. Then, we jump in and take full advantage of the offering. Hope you all have a fantastic Tuesday. See you all on the next one. The Vortex Trader.
Short
by TheVortexTrader
AUDUSD to 0.60 in short orderThanks for viewing, This is my tentative view on the AUDUSD pairing over the rest of the year. FOREX loves to stay within a channel, this pairing is no exception. In my view the market weakness is about to steepen. What was trend-line support is now resistance. Look there are a lot of pretty colours, so I must be right. 1. There is some weakness shown by the daily candle - doji with long wicks - its an indecision candle right at the 55EMA / upper trend-line of my new speculative channel (5 channel touches - the previous channel had 12 touches). A channel with less than 4 touches is speculative, this one is plausible. 2. I count wave 1 down (of wave (C)) - all five sub-divisions showing normal extensions and no overlap. Then there was another wave 1 and 2 (or (i) and (ii) to hunt all the stop-loss positions from people / organisations that were short. For the Elliot Wave viewpoint to hold this should result in even more volatile downward price movement (especially to stay within this much steeper channel) as wave 3 of wave (C) develops. Wave (iii) of wave 3 will be vertical and there will be a lot of gaps (that won't be filled for some time). 3 Since the start of 2021 everything above the 55EMA was over-valued (opaque red boxes) and most of the price action happened below the 55 EMA. Over the past 18 months, you would have been very profitable if you sold / shorted every time the price dropped below the 55EMA (eight out of 9 times at least). Now there is a good chance that the price won't be above the 55EMA for some months (traders catch on the the 55EMA upwards cross-over is a rally that should be sold into rather than bought). 4. There is precedent for this over years past. Once the price drops down below the channel, support becomes resistance and the price drop speeds up - making a new steeper channel. If this new channel is valid, the price will have to go almost vertical to stay within its bounds. 5. I put some support levels - based on previous price action - that if you don't believe in others do and will target to exit or reduce short positions / buy. I see a deep drop to 0.63-0.64 and the down to 0.6 or maybe a little bit further. This is based on - channel support turned resistance, - EMA resistance, - 1.618 fib extensions of wave 1 and of wave (i) and (ii) of wave 3, - Support swing lows, - Channel support and resistance (from March to May 2020), and - Elliot wave (wave (C) always has 5 sub-waves) and normally extends roughly 1:1 of wave (A) (sometimes less sometimes more). So, what will I be looking for over the next days to a week? 1. Another indecision candle on below average or low volume, or an inverted hammer on low volume with a similar size wick to the upside. Followed by higher volume as the price drops from current levels. If you go short don't have the stop-loss too close to the swing high as professional traders will look to stop you out of the trade before resuming the down-trend. 2. My speculative channel to remain largely intact. 3. What is labelled as wave 1 swing low of 0.68290 to remain intact and to not be exceeded by subsequent pull-backs in price. 4. Watch out below. Just look back in the past... In economic down-turns the money goes home (or goes to) to the US for safety. It doesn't stay in the AUD even though the bond return is marginally higher. I don't think this is a comment on the strength of the Aussie economy, it's just a flight to safety and away from uncertainty. Protect those funds and happy trading. Anyone who is left at the end of my essay CHEERS. Hopefully, whether you follow EW, or channels, or fibonacci extensions, candle patterns, or support and resistance, or something else. I have still made a good case.
Short
by flyinkiwi10
1
TTM: breaking out of bearish channelTTM ( Tata Motors , Indian conglomerate): Nice set up here as we had a multi week bear channel and we're now breaking out of this channel, signalling a potential reversal to the upside. To maintain this reversal, the price will need to remain above the line of the bear channel which is now acting as support. Note that price could go up a bit and retest the breakout point before really taking off. I'm long with a stop at 26.19. All targets are on the chart. Two important targets are 29.13 which is the previous high, and 34.49. Trade safe.
TLong
by Elpidaldo
XMRUSDT retest the 0.618 Fibonacci level 🦐XMRUSDT on the 4h chart is trading inside an ascending channel. The price after the yesterday's impulse is now trading in a choppy way with a retest of the 0.618 fibonacci support. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and in the case that the price will break above the 4h resistance i will consider a long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
XLong
by InkyGrip
2
DAX 40 Descending Channel On The Daily Hi Traders, Having a look a the DAX today on the daily and 4 hours. I have highlighted the descending channel that we have been in since mid-June. Descending channels are a great pattern and can usually present a great setup with a high risk to reward as the targets for the channel entries are usually up where the channel began. We can classify this as a channel as we have a minimum of two taps on either side and if we adjust slightly to cover the wicks then we can say we have three taps on either side. I have shown these taps on the chart with small arrows indicating where the rice has touched the top and bottom of the channel. I have added a line that cuts through the channel In a horizontal fashion. This line indicated previous support flipped resistance and we can see that price has respected this line. It was supported and when it flipped to the resistance we had a nice short bounce off of it. We need to see a break above this resistance to confirm bullish action. Looking at the MACD below, we have divergence across the histogram. As the price continued to make lower lows, the histogram was trending upwards which indicated to us that the sellers have been weakening. This is usually a good sign when looking at descending channels in any time frame because once we see this partial divergence we can start waiting patiently for a break of the channel top. Let's move on to the volume. Notice how the volume has decreased dramatically since we began the descending channel. If we see a break above the channel top, we need to see accompanying strong bullish volume. THE SETUP Usually, the way I would wait for a setup is, that we need to see the price break above the channel top as this is descending resistance. Once we see this impulsive break, we need to see the price close above the channel top confirming that this channel is indeed broken. As I am a patient break and retest trader and as this is on the daily time frame, I would wait for the price to come back down and retest the channel top as support before triggering a long position and trading the DAX to the upside. Targets would be around the 13700 level. This is a psychological whole number that adds confluence to the target as well as it being the price where the descending channel began. This would be a long-term swing trade as this could take time to play out. Until we see that break, there is no point in even looking for a retest or long position in this time frame. Until then, let's keep watching and keep our eyes open. Hope you all have a wonderful Thursday. See you all on the next one. The Vortex Trader.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by TheVortexTrader
Is INTC getting ready to break its channel?As with most stocks, INTC has been in a bearish trend beginning this year. Recently it has entered into a neat downward channel. Following the last test of the channel upper bound (denoted by the blue flag), a substantial decline occurred. This decline ended with a volume spike against the lower bound. The last test of the lower bound (denoted by the green flag) is strikingly different than the previous. It lacked a volume spike and did not push the Stoch or MACD to new lows. In fact, during the latest retracement up, both indicators flashed signals of a bullish divergence. It seems likely that this retracement following the latest lower bound will take us at least to the upper bound, if not break the channel.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by Ronald_Ryninger
3