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CBOE

Bitcoin (BEARISH): At least one more drop likely before LambosWith all the ETF hope and news in the air again, and the impressive amount of volume over the last few days, we reach that regular part of the cycle where the chorus of 'THE WORST IS OVER!! BITCOIN TO THE MOON!!" starts to be heard loudly once more. I think we have a few more legs down before we're likely to complete the market cycle and start a recovery. We're still in a tight, descending wedge that has been in play and held since around the beginning of the year. That wedge doesn't come to a point until early November, at around 5k. Of course, we could break out of it a bit sooner. Right now, BTC is hovering with indecision, attempting to break north of the $7590 zone to validate an inverse H&S pattern. That area has been tested a few times in the past several hours, but we've yet to break authoritatively above it. Meanwhile, we're still in the descending wedge. RSI is nearing overbought territory, and starting to show potential signs of stalling off. I'm expecting BTC to test the bottom side of the wedge at around $5900 at least once more, before (hopefully) rebounding up and out. CBOE XBT contracts (Bitcoin Futures) expire tomorrow (18 July), so a quick pump of the market before dumping again wouldn't be a surprising move. Neatly, this also puts us testing the bottom of the wedge at around August 6th — which, historically, has been a very common date for shifts in BTC market direction. Although it hasn't held quite as true over the last couple of months (after starting to pick up some traction as an idea/observation - go figure), it will be interesting to see if it makes a resurgence.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by indicates_void
1
CBOE President statement - EOS AI/ML SignalCBOE President, Chris Concannon, has said that initial coin offerings could soon face a regulatory reckoning. Concannon warned that the SEC will classify ICOs as unregistered securities. It was reported that in 2017 the ICO market raised USD$4bn and is projected to raise USD$7bn in 2018. The AI Machine Learning 3-Day Crypto Signal for EOS is Don’t Own and was published this morning. Learn how to use advanced ML 3-Day signals when trading cryptos. The average accuracy score for the Machine Learning algorithms for EOS is 64.11%.
BITFINEX:EOSUSD
by Quantamize
2
CME & Also CBOE Future Expiry dates are impacting the btc pricesAs we see on the expiry dates of both CME and CBOE futures, Bitcoin price generally drops heavily. This trend has to end at some point and always comes back from the dip level (6K-7K) that is defined when those companies announced they will launch those futures. This is the time the financial wolves joined the game and became market makers. This dip is the exact bitcoin price when it was announced. So I'm pretty sure we will not go below. I don't know how many cycles it will take to boost and market makers play the bull, we will see but at some point this will happen. Also the cycles of shorts is telling us that not so long. Every time they decrease, the highest level of shorts reach is getting lower. So this paradox should end a new cycle should start in upcoming months. I'm long in bitcoin... We will see a bullish market in august and september...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by turananil
The CBOE/CME Settlement cycle really dump & pump BTC price!You can check my previous analysis about his hellish CBOE/CME cycle that suppress/pump BTC price ( and the whole crypto market ) into dump & pump cycle. If my guess is correct, this dump will stop around 6-7 June 2018 at around 7000-7200 price. and it will continue to pump again. But since the price will stuck at trend line ... so the highest price for next BTC pump cycle will be around 8500 or 8200. But I think 9000 is the possible price target for next pump.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
Just an update for CBOE-BTC up and down cycle, so it's began.Since BTC test 10k and couldn't pass, the price start to crumble. Now it form very big Head & Shoulders pattern in 4H Timeframe, the neckline is around 9050 and I think it won't hold. Expect slow price drop to 8800 then struggling to go up to 9000. Then drop to 8500 and up to 8700.. Then 8000-8500. From my idea, the price will continue to drop to the bottom ( 7000 or 8000 ) around first week of June 2018. And start to rally up again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Real_inwCoin
3
CBOE/CME Bitcoin Future settlement date and BTC price relationI notice that the CME/CBOE settlement date are related to BTC price. This is just my idea, need more time to prove this pattern. * Price will pump or dump before CBOE settlement date ( right before enter the red zone ) * There were 2 cycles of pump and dump so far ( the current cycle is pumping Apr 4, 2018 ) * The price will keep pumping until around 9-10 May 2018 and it will continue to drop. * They will use media to manipulate the price, from now on, there will be only good news about crypto/bitcoin to lure people in with FOMO. * Then they will dump the price again with FUD. Let's see how far we can go this time :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Real_inwCoin
2
Bitcoin - Analysed From Future's Traders ViewIn the above graph, Green Channels show large volume for CME future contracts where Red Channels indicate small volume, the darker the colour, the more intense the volume. As you can see, the early Green Channels signal large volatility hence large price rises where low volume future contracts resulted in significant drops, now later along in March, Contract volumes steadily rose, in which its seems this increase in Fututes volume has taken the volatility out of the market. MACD appears to be tightly entangled within the closing wedge, either this will limit future corrections or force an breakout with the amplitude of the wedge ranges from $6000 - $9000, Latest futures trading data shows net-long traders are converting to shorts although currently longs have just over 2-1 lead, there is rumors longs are coming back into favor yet the trends show differently, as two-three weeks of reversal hint at perpetual shorts. Taking a view of traders and their attitudes, seems to exhibit pressure to force BTC prices low although changes in sentiment suggest a reversal of the BTC downtrend despite the fact traders remain net-long, this could change with current price action as low BTC price mean net-longs are lucrative. We have declining open interest indicating the market is liquidating and could lead to current downward trend coming to an end. This is a contradiction as the overall Futures volume shows we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse. Here is CBOE views on it: “The daily volume has mostly been concentrated in the near-month future and the open interest doesn’t change much from day to day,” said Gary Compton, a spokesperson for the CBOE, to Modern Consensus. “This could indicate that short term or day traders are concentrating on this contract. The farthest-dated contracts haven’t been trading too much" "This shows that asset managers and institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, and the like—have switched from being completely short bitcoin to long the Cryptocurrency, at least when ti comes to the futures contract on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)" According to the COT report, “Asset manager/institutional” traders required to report to the regulator are now long a total of 220 contracts, worth a little above $1.7 million as of Monday. There are no new short contracts. Just two weeks before, they were short 110 contracts but long no contracts. They are currently long 2,323 BTC contracts and short 953 contracts (for a net of 1,370 contracts). Two weeks ago, they were 2,531 contracts while short 815 (for a net of 1,716). Using commodities index as a base for open interest volume, states Falling Price + Falling Contract Volume + Falling Open Interest represents a market that is Strengthening for an uptrend where the price decline is likely being caused by disgruntled net-long traders liquidating their positions on current price action. The market in this scenario is viewed as in an strong position because the downtrend will end once all the sellers have sold their positions. Another option is Falling Price + Rising Open Interest + Falling Contract Volume is indicative of a weak market downtrend. During the course of the current trend, high and rising volume in Jan, Feb suggests trading activity supported the downward trend and that the trend continuation happened due to increased investors supporting overall downward price movement.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CerealTrader
LTC: First target reached - Caution Today!Hello everyone! We have just reached the first target at 165USD (78,6% retracement). The following target is the lower part of the descending channel , 155USD. Bear in mind folks, that today, March 14th is a key date due to the closing of CBOE -3.15% -0.58% 3.88% Bitcoin Futures -3.80% -1.76% 8.65% , contract XBT/H8. This is scheduled for today 14 March 2018 14:45:00 CDT -12.00% 4.17% 4.17% , and as we know from previous experiences, the whole crypto market is extremely reactive to this event. Caution is therefore advised for the following days. That's all for now! Good luck and please hit the like button if you'd like an update on this analysis! Should you have any comments/questions, feel free to comment below! Thank you and have a great day!
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by amanje
Going short on LTC? Watch out!!Hello everyone! We have just witnessed the breakdown of the bearflag. First target now is 165USD (78,6% retracement). The following target is the lower part of the descending channel, 155USD. Bear in mind folks, that March 14th is a key date due to the closing of CBOE -0.58% 3.88% Bitcoin Futures -1.76% 8.65% , contract XBT/H8. This is scheduled for 14 March 2018 14:45:00 CDT 4.17% 4.17% , and as we know from previous experiences, the whole crypto market is extremely reactive to this event. Caution is therefore advised for the following days. That's all for now! Good luck and please hit the like button if you'd like an update on this analysis! Should you have any comments/questions, feel free to comment below! Thank you and have a great day!
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by amanje
Bitcoin Future's Future (CME Cboe) Futures have had a wide ranging effect on BTC, from the rumor rise in June that CME will release at years end, to the parabolic rise before possible shorting to double dip profit taking, now an overall reduction in volatility similar to that of the commodities futures of Gold, Silver when first introduced way back when. Future's previous effect on the Bitcoin price listed along with future prediction if the same trend was to continue. I could add other indicators to confirm the trend possibility but if this is what future hedges funds do, then this is what they do. By no way comfirmed but interesting nevertheless.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CerealTrader
LTC analysis, going Long or Short?Hello everyone! So, we have just completed the Head&Shoulders Formation. As you you can see, LTC is behaving pretty much as it did when it touched the lower part of the descending channel on Feb.23rd. What is expected now is a rally of LTC up to 205 USD approx. and back down to the lower part of the descending channel. Bear in mind folks, that March 14th is a key date due to the closing of CBOE Bitcoin Futures, contract XBT/H8. This is scheduled for 14 March 2018 14:45:00 CDT, and as we know from previous experiences, the whole crypto market is extremely reactive to this event. Caution is therefore advised for the following days. That's all folks! Good luck and if I get many likes I will update this analysis! Thank you and have a great day!
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by amanje
Bitcoin - The YUGE bubble Some people believe that BTC is overvalued and some believe it's undervalued. The one who considers Bitcoin is overvalued is referring Bitcoin as a bubble but still want to buy it, whereas the one who considers Bitcoin is undervalued because it still has not reached the point of global adoption are the one who speculates the market. Whereas BTC chart is no different than others and every chart is different on each exchange. Honestly, only a strong person with patience can gain "Yuge" profit in the market basically from rumors and news. Obviously, it's all speculation before the market adoption. For cryptocurrency, Twitter is working as the primary source of information while 90% investor really doesn't understand blockchain and probably 30%-50% more or less never invested in stock market. Hopeless romantic : Myth: Macafee will make you rich or otherwise he will cut his crap? Really? Fact: There's no source of legit information, one Tweet from Macafee wouldn't make you rich. Technologically novice : Myth: Ethereum is better than Bitcoin? Fact: UTXO are the currency while Ethereum is a smart contract, both have a different purpose. Blame game : Myth: Futures are manipulating the market. Fact: They are hedging but still BTC contracts not worth more than just the Oil contracts. "That's how the market works" Accept it. The bubble is everywhere, we can't say BTC is in the bubble or cryptocurrency is the bubble. The Blockchain is promising technology but still need to prove itself. For now, let's play the " YUGE" speculation before we get the final product for the generation "Z". J. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remarked, “It strikes me that we owe it to this generation to respect their enthusiasm about virtual currencies with a thoughtful and balanced response, not a dismissive one.” He did urge, however, that regulators “must crack down hard on those who try to abuse enthusiasm with fraud and manipulation.”
by fk91
ABCD Correction: CME Over-Exuberance & Fear of the UnknownDisclaimer: This is an opinion based on experience and analysis, meant only to add to your own formulated opinions, not give you a trade to take. There's been an incredible amount of fear surrounding the CBOE and CME futures contract, mostly because people don't really understand them. The first ride on the futures merry-go-round brought the price down instantly. So, the automatic knee-jerk reaction is that every contract will bring it down. Yet, it should be noted that their announcement brought the price up wildly. There has been gain and loss, so far. As expected. Swings seem to have caused the price action of Bitcoin to go so high that it forgot to retrace its previous price rise from around $8350. There have been other views which claim every bull run has retraced to close a price gap, (reference forthcoming). The only price gap I see still open is the aforementioned one at $8350. Using trend analysis, you can draw pretty clear lines leading to around $7550 as a compensation for the over-exuberance of the bull market due to the introduction of futures contracts. The first correction after the CME announcement was around 29-11-2017 and was declared 'over' at somewhere near 9135, however, it appears now that closing that gap from 8350 to 9135 is, in fact, 'in the cards', based on a trend analysis of the current downward movement. Savvy investors have pointed to an 8K prediction since that time, and it looks by all sings like we're getting it. And, on that note, let's be honest. Futures is just betting. There's no ownership of the asset, and the bets are private - meaning we (the retail consumers of Bitcoin) gain absolutely nothing from their existence, other than the opportunity to sell the news, and the abject terror when the market moves as a result of it (so far). Anyway, I assume the bounce from 7550 levels will be aggressively bought into. There is the (3xBearish) scenario that $7550 will be ignored and the price will drop further. Personally, if that DOES happen, I'm going to make the assumption that most of the Bitcoin in existence is in the hands of institutional traders, whether they be old whales or new. From there, I'd expect the price to be driven to $2999 and repurchased for another round of ponzi scheme trading in a few years. That would make Bitcoin worthless, for my needs. However, I DON'T think that is the case and will work off the assumption that $7550 will be the the absolute floor which is only touched once, as an unconscious psychological punishment for over-reaching $8350 after CME, CBOE & The Moon. From where it is today, at the bottom of the minor ascending support line (marked in red), could hold if enough volume comes in to push it above the resistance of the ABCD correction, though I personally doubt it. Overall, though, I think the future of Bitcoin will be bright. Whales aren't just idiots who bought bitcoin early. They're early adopters because they recognized value. That value still exists as long as you can transfer value outside of the banking system. Let's not forget how badly every bank has extorted the poor and needy, and how much distaste there actually is for them. They'll be on best behavior for as long as they can resist the temptation to nickel and dime us, but once it happens and the face of institutional extortion shows itself again, Bitcoin will go up. Thank you for reading. This has been my first published idea on Tradingview.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by HanktheTank
BTC possible big dip to 7000$ - 9000$ levelIf you watch the 1D chart for BTCUSD it looks like a big Pump & Dump (P&D) which lasted several months. It looks like most of the big dump already finished half it's way and there is a possibility it will dip between the 7000-9000 levels. Let's say 8000$ as average, but keep in mind a lot of fear will reveal it self when 9000 trend line is broken. Therefor support at 8000$ is crucial! Lastly not to forget is in 5 hours the Future market contracts will end. A big chance for a LONG run coming month. A small chance still exists Futures will go SHORT. In that case "So Help us God" ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by c4ndym4n
Bitcoin : Futures - are they affecting the spot market?Hi, I am not normally into conspiracy theories, but I am interested in any impact (if any) on the spot market from the CBOE and CME futures markets. I have marked the start and end of the 2 futures markets. There was a clear downtrend for the first CBOE duration and a clear up tick after if ended. Let's see what happens when the CME futures expire. Perhaps the futures market (being currently so small) doesn't have a direct effect but the impact may be set more in the minds and expectations of the market as a whole. Either way, the effect may be the same. Let's see.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by darobsta
9
BTCUSD Vs. XBT: Levels For Oncoming CBOE Futures Volume.BTCUSD update: Price is not far from the all time high of 17171 just hours away from the start of today's business on the CBOE. This is when more volume will enter the market and have a more significant effect in either direction. In this report I am going to highlight what to watch for at the two upcoming resistance levels. 17171 and the price range up to 18300 are the areas to watch closely which this market is likely to test. Since the futures have opened, price momentum has been bullish and has taken out the minor resistance zone between the 15500 to 16230 area (.618 of bearish structure). What many do not realize is that volume in the futures market outside regular business hours is often much lower and if these contracts are going to have any effect, it is more likely to happen during the day session. The reason why these levels are important to watch is because today, many more shorts will be able to enter this market compared to the absence of shorting ability by most U.S. participants. A bearish reversal candle off of the 17171 high will be viewed as a potential double top. While the reversal zone just above is where price can spike to a new high, attract all the breakout traders and then fall apart. This often begins with a pin bar, or outside bar which is likely to happen below 18300. If price breaks above this upper boundary, then 20k becomes a much more likely target. If there is a correction, the 14250 to 13575 zone (.618 of current bullish swing), and the 12700 to 11550 area would be the range to look for bullish reversal patterns. Again these levels offer the most attractive reward/risk for smaller time frame trading and not investing. In other words, if you are looking to buy, these are the higher probability levels to evaluate IF price manages to retest them. At the moment, this market is not showing any signs of significant weakness or reversal patterns. It is still too early, but that may change during the day session of the futures. There is no way to predict what will happen. The best you can do is isolate a couple of possible scenarios and see if the market cooperates, then measure risk from there. This is the short term trading mentality and what you will be competing with when the futures traders really enter this market. In summary, I expect the CBOE futures along with the CME next week to bring balance to a market that is moving 2500 points a day. People entering this market now are entering with extremely unrealistic expectations and are only looking at, "Wow, 1000 to 17000 in less than a year!". In the long run, I do believe it will go higher, I have been long term bullish the entire time. It is the short term that people do not understand and will require more skill to navigate. I do not think the futures will cause a major sell off, instead I think they will enforce reality which means more realistic ranges and movements. Retracing 5k in two days and recovering it is amazing, (unless you bought at 17000) but it is not reality. Whether you are investing or looking to trade shorter time horizons, knowing what is more likely to happen based on price action will improve your timing but there is an undercurrent of ignorance that the professional futures traders are going to capitalize on. And that is the lack of risk management which is typical of new money entering hot markets near highs. The hype will attract this money and the professionals will take it out and this is what the futures will facilitate. Just something to think about. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31