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CAT

CAT - Caterpillar has a big hill to climb. This long-term chart looks at the relationship between Caterpillar NYSE:CAT and front-month crude oil futures The week so far has seen a few points shaved off CAT's 30% rally since election day, when it hovered around its 50 week average. The stock has been pounding against 5 year resistance while mostly shrugging off weakness in Crude. But with no clear path ahead for oil prices and an uphill battle for any infrastructure bill through Congress, can CAT bust through the trend line and "grow into its multiple" as so many analysts predict? NYSE:CAT / NYMEX:CL1!
NYSE:CAT
by pwarren
Bears To Feast On CaterpillarOn April 13, 2017, Caterpillar ( CAT ) crossed below its 50 and 100 day moving averages (DMA). Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 DMA 444 times, the 100 DMA 348 times and both have occurred on the same day 72 times. For all of these instances, the stock does not always drop over the following 11 trading days. The 50 DMA cross has a median loss of 3.627% and a maximum loss of 33.865% while the 100 DMA cross has a median loss of 2.829% and a maximum loss of 21.035%. When both crosses occur on the same day, the median loss is 2.528% and maximum loss is 19.584%. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.6290. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral, but has been heading down. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.9828. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9853 while the negative is at 0.8779. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is drifting down with both indicators remaining below 1. The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.0377 and D value is 77.5211. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is exiting overbought territory. This indicates the stock will begin to fall soon. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 2.25% over the next 11 trading days. The most recent same day crosses outside of the current trend channel were in November 2013, September 2013, October 2013, December 2013, and September 2014. The respective losses were 2.526%, 2.530%, 0.624%, 0.823%, and 6.123%. FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Another consideration with CAT earnings approaching is our current economic state. After the election, CAT surged on hope of construction jobs in the near-term due to projected presidential policies. The construction and policies are yet to fully take shape and the price of the stock could not only appear too high, but not much has changed regarding the earnings of the company. With the stock being propped up with nothing to justify it, earnings day could be a major wakeup call for investors which could easily be the catalyst for this stock to drop to 91 or even sub-90.
NYSE:CATShort
by StockSignaler
BANC morning star reversal on weekly?BANC has come under alot of criticism for their operations being a little too good to be true and eerily resembling another financial operator with links to the firm that turned out to be fraud (identified by some short activists). BANC responded that it's false and tried to use a firm that is a customer of the bank to help clear the air. We will see in the next several weeks if the daily charts are setup up a strong reversal (bullish) or if it's a dead cat bounce and flagging (bearish).
NYSE:BANC
by MattDeLong
XMR SHORT - Time to turn the corner!Monero has recently seen a few tumultuous weeks of trading and looks to finally be on the back side of this event. Looks to be consolidating some and trying to find a floor. All indicators are lining up towards a nice short position in the 4h chart. The price has resisted crossing the downward trend since the ATH a few days ago, and finally rolled over. There has been strong resistance at fib levels all the way down to here at 235, 220, 200, and 180. I think that it will stabilize around 150 , where it had a consolidation period on the way up. Ultimate candle stick lows should be somewhere around 120-130 , maybe even lower. Great chance to catch the bottom and flip for a long on the dead cat bounce. The market has not looked this decided in a while, I am excited to see how things turn out! Currently holding a short position with entry at 178. Will keep this updated as the market moves.
Short
by Jorgenberries
Caterpillar technicals point to downside riskCAT reached new annual highs last week but failed to break above an important technical level at $83.90 (50% Fib level in chart). A negative divergence has taken shape in the daily RSI as prices retreat from a trend line resistance tested on 17 August. So long as prices remain below $85.30 (current projected trend line level), we may see CAT correct down towards $80.90 by next week. $77.40/$78.00 is also a possible target if such a correction takes place next month.
NYSE:CATShort
by ABRAK75