Aurora Cannabis Bottomed - Mega Long Opportunity!Aurora Cannabis is one of the leaders in the new and emerging cannabis industry in Canada. They plan to stick around and I believe they will for a variety of reasons even though there is so much fear surrounding this industry at the moment. I'll elaborate further on this idea but for now let’s get to the TA.
I’ve recently called LONG on this, but it has since taken another small leg down.
Now the slope of downward price trajectory has slowed down and flattened, not completely but downward momentum has slowed down nonetheless, but trading volume has spiked. This speaks volumes to me, no pun intended. This shows me the possibility of a trend reversal occurring, and the bullish divergence on the RSI supports that idea as well.
Now can the stock dip further? Sure, but I’m setting a stop loss underneath the support, mainly because we are on a major key long-term support line. If we break below this, it’s going to be ugly in my opinion.
So why long? I view this as a low-risk high reward play for me considering what the technical indicators and current price level show me. I’m no fortune teller, I’m simply seeing a possible high-reward opportunity in front of me.
Don’t forget there are a whole lot of people who FOMO’d into this industry at all-time-high prices and rode it all the way down. These are the same people spreading fear about the cannabis industry but the truth is this is when smart money buys.
The Bottom Line:
9 months oversold on RSI, highest point reached being 60 and quickly dumped down back to oversold territory.
Downtrend momentum has slowed down with breakout in volume
Bullish divergence on RSI
Price has already declined 88% from it’s all-time high.
Buy the fear, sell the greed.
This is not trading advice, just my own opinion and ideas.
Excited to see how this plays out. Safe trading, cheers!
Cannabisstocks
Bull Flag or Descending Triangle.It appears as though the 200 Day MA is acting as the floor of the descending triangle or bullish flag.
Bullish Pennant?Possibly a descending triangle?
A pennant is a continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trend lines - the pennant - followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, which represents the second half of the flagpole.
Pennants are continuation patterns where a period of consolidation is followed by a breakout.
It's important to look at the volume in a pennant—the period of consolidation should have lower volume and the breakouts should occur on higher volume.
Most traders use pennants in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as confirmation.
Pennants, which are similar to flags in terms of structure, have converging trend lines during their consolidation period and last from one to three weeks. The volume at each period of the pennant is also important. The initial move must be met with large volume while the pennant should have weakening volume, followed by a large increase in volume during the breakout.
BullFlag FormedSo far Bullflag confirmation seems imminent . Looking for further confirmation
Currently entry position is at $1.90 (A strong support line)
A lot of potential for the upside
XLY - Cannabis Stock Looking for ContinuationProposed Entry 0.61 - 0.65
First Target 0.71 (+15.7%)
Proposed Stop 0.60 (-6.6%)
2.4 : 1 Reward to Risk Ratio
Another cannabis stock ready to fly high? NYSE:ACB looks very interesting since mid January bottom. Good odds that similiar pattern (inverted H&S) will be playing out, as it was the case before with NYSE:CGC , which is rallying nicely since its breakout in early December.
Is TNY trading in a Bull Flag?Since my previous two post about TNY trading in a bullish flag pattern & a ascending triangle; which both broke out to the upside, it appears as though Tinley is trading in another Bull Flag that may bring us over the 200 Day MA, and there's also a series of micro higher lows.
Only time will tell, but notice on the rsi TNY appears to have a bearish divergence?
Divergence can occur between the price of an asset and almost any technical or fundamental indicator or data. Though, divergence is typically used by technical traders when the price is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator.
Positive divergence signals price could start moving higher soon. It occurs when the price is moving lower but a technical indicator is moving higher or showing bullish signals.
Negative divergence points to lower prices in the future. It occurs when the price is moving higher but a technical indicator is moving lower or showing bearish signals.
Divergence isn't to be relied on exclusively, as it doesn't provide timely trade signals. Divergence can last a long time without a price reversal occurring.
Divergence is not present for all major price reversals, it is only present on some.
Just an idea ? SUGR Long Trading at a strong level of support with momentum in volume and the recent emergence through the 30 RSI level.
- Waiting on revenue - hopefully end of Q1 early Q2
- Phase 1 of their plan is fully funded
- Cash flow positive - sooner than they would have initially anticipated
- Contracts/partnerships
- Experienced Management & BoD
- Insider ownership at around these levels
Aurora Cannabis - Massive Long Opportunity!Last time we were in overbought territory on the daily RSI was 10 months ago.
This has been the largest downtrend in the stock's entire history. Currently trading under a death cross for quite a very long timenow. So why long now?
Not only has it bounced off the major long-term support line (green), it seems to be forming an inverse head and shoulder at the moment which is bullish and signals a trend reversal.
That along with it being in oversold territory for 8 months and finally breaking out and posting a higher high tells we may be at a price range that we may not see for a very long time, if ever.
A few more daily closes will paint a better picture with regards to the possible inverse head & shoulders. In order for this to play out we would have to reach a price of approximately 1.91 so don't panic if we dip first as it is expected. If we continue to post higher lows and highs in this trend then the swing to the upside could in fact be immense in the next year.
Low risk for a potentially very high reward in my opinion. I don't think we're trying to break this support line because if we do then it's going to be a freefall ;)
Please like & share if you found useful. Leave your feedback below and let me know what you think. Cheers, and safe trading!
Canabis 2.0 future. My thoughtsAs per many requests...
How I see the cannabis market at a glance. Trade safe~
48North - The Small Cap Cannabis Company To WatchI have maintained a long thesis on 48North Cannabis Corporation since October 2018, and the trade worked wonderfully into March of last year. However, 48North pulled back alongside the entire cannabis sector, and rightfully so on some of their own missteps.
As a brief introduction, I believe 48North's competitive advantage stems from their outdoor grow operation, creating a low cost of goods operating model that will enable 48North to price products competitively and reward investors with higher gross margin performance when compared against the peer group. It should be noted that 48North missed their production guidance for 2019- resulting from delayed licensing for drying rooms. In 2019 48North demonstrated that outdoor grown cannabis can be completed at scale, at a low cost, and successfully pass Health Canada's quality control standards.
From a chart perspective I'm considering the Elliott Wave ABC pattern to be completed with a clean retracement & double bottom at $0.315 - neatly correlating with the 161.8 fib extension of Wave A
Current Market Cap: $63M
Cash on Hand: $40M
It is my opinion that 48North's cash position reduces the need for any capital injection through 2020. Frankly- it is going to be in the hands of 48North to demonstrate in 2020 that they truly can achieve their projected outdoor harvest numbers with drying capacity not being a barrier in 2020.
CANOPY Growth Has Bottomed - Inverted Head & Shoulders!Classic Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is usually not just a bullish indicator but a sign for a trend reversal from bearish to bullish, and we just so happen to be coming off a recent low.
Not only did we bottom but we bottomed right at the .786 Fibonacci retracement level which just also happens to be right at the major support line. Great to see it respected at a healthy retracement level. Anyone who bought here has a good probability to see good profits.
Strategy:
I'm anticipating AT LEAST a move to the yellow circle which is also where the 200 MA is curving down to. This would mean roughly a 20% gain from here alone.
Now a few things can happen there. We can get rejected off the 200 MA and head back down which in that case I would look to buy once again somewhere along the support. Timing is everything as Canopy has plummeted to the down side most of the times of Earnings, so I would also look to reposition myself at that time as well. Looking at the chart I see that can easily happen after we make our test to the 200 MA.
On the flip side since the trend is looking upward at the moment we can easily have our 50MA cross above the 200MA resulting in a golden cross which then I would look for much more gains ahead.
Let me know what you think, I will update over time. Safe trading :)
Aphria - Inverse Head & Shoulders to Watch on WeeklyI'm a big fan of weekly time frame analysis, the larger time frame offers in my opinion greater strength behind any pattern- bearish or bull. I'm watching for an inverse head and shoulders to form, with the near term 7.35 resistance converting into support and offering a leg up into 9.10
A break of the 9.10 neckline will offer further upside, however I do not anticipate this will break on the first attempt rather pullback into 7.35 area confirming it as support and finally painting the inverse head & shoulders pattern everyone will be watching. I'm just watching for the potential formation a few weeks in advance.
Disclosure, I do hold an existing long position in Aphria (APHA)
Is EXP trading in a Bear Flag?Or possibly a bull flag, but currently EXP is trading at all time lows & down -90% since late 2017 highs, so there's merit for a contrarian bottom fishing buy here.
I recently bought one of their premium flower brands "Citizen Stash Mac-1" & its THC content is 25.6%, which is the highest I've seen on the legal rec Canadian market & I've been in dispensaries all across the country legal & illegal for the past 5 years.
For comparison, Aphria's Broken Coast brand has been my favorite on the legal rec market in Canada & has won top awards at the Canadian Cannabis Awards, but the highest THC content I've seen is well under 20% with an average of roughly 16% for each of premium Indica strains like Gabriola, Quadra & Stryker. I've noticed the Stargazer Sonora has a 24.9% thc content on Aphria's website, but I don't like Sativa & I've yet to see it in dispensaries.
Anyway, if EXP can get the Mac-1 & other newer strains under the Citizen Stash Brand in dispensaries across Canada they will easily become the #1 premium flower on the market, and potentially become a buyout target from much larger LP's looking to find premium flower brands that are selling to add to their portfolio.
citizenstash.com
Cannabis Stocks BullishWEED just bounced off multi-year support dating back to 2016, breaking above the bearish resistance it's been fighting since April of 2019. Weed pennant accumulating should break out soon, which considering the strong correlation ACB has shown to WEED, would lead me to believe ACB should follow suit.
Ascending Triangle Breakout for FAF?It appears as though FAF is breaking out of a Ascending Triangle.
CTST's hope is aliveThis thing has been moving recently, and although it may pull back it looks ready to run much further.
I'll be watching this one closely
Is APHA trading in a micro descending triangle?It' possible that if this pattern plays out to the downside Aphria sticks in a Triple Bottom some where equal to the previous two bottoms where I have the green volume icon, ideally the third bottom should be higher than the previous two.
Key Takeaways
A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears).
A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance.
There should be an existing downtrend in place before the pattern occurs.
The three lows should be roughly equal in price and spaced out from each other. While the price doesn't have to be exactly equal, it should be reasonably close to the same price, such that a trendline is horizontal.
Only time will tell, but on a five year chart there's merit for a giant bull flag, see attached chart, or it's possibly a descending triangle. But you can also see a inverse H&S, a lot of familiar bullish patterns.
MedMan capitulation and retail shakeoutI do not provide financial advise.
Despite serious declines in Canna Stocks in 2019 looks like $MMNFF successfully capitulated and retail investors are being shaked out by institutions. Here's why:
- On macro, long-term parabolic wedge has resolved itself by hammered spring and followed up by SFP bullish candle. Please note this was second largest green candle in history of the stock. Smart money accumulating.
- Volume is picking up.
- RSI bottomed below 30 for a long time. Accumulation?
- Stock still in down trend because Lower High at $0.75 hasn't been taken out yet, but looks like new price discovery is completed at this point.
- For investors with high risk tolerance this is the best entry due to high asymmetrical setup. For conservatives entry above $0.75
- Targets are $1.80 / $2.75 / $3.80
- Stop below last swing low
Is TNY trading in a Ascending Triangle.Possibly a Symmetrical Triangle as well & coincidently upon breakout would negate the descending triangle pattern which started roughly Nov 19th 2019.
Key Takeaways
Symmetrical triangles occur when a security's price is consolidating in a way that generates two converging trend lines with similar slopes.
The breakout or breakdown targets for a symmetrical triangle is equal to the distance between the initial high and low applied to the breakout or breakdown point.
Many traders use symmetrical triangles in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as a confirmation.
Ascending Triangle Key Takeaways
The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows.
Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically breakout of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle. Although, this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy.
A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point.
TNY is also trading in what's called a Triple Bottom pattern with the first bottom starting roughly Oct 23rd 2019 where I have the red finger pointing right.
Key Takeaways
A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears).
A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance.
The formation of triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position.
The triple bottom is similar to the double bottom chart pattern and may also look like ascending or descending triangles. Traders always look for confirmation of a triple bottom using other technical indicators or chart patterns. For example, traders might note that the stock has an oversold relative strength index ( RSI ) before a double bottom forms and/or look for a breakout to confirm that it's a triple bottom rather than a descending triangle or other bearish pattern .
The MA50&200 are the black lines, plus the 200 Day MA is black as well. TNY is trading between the MA50&200 at the moment. Roughly 48% away from the 200 Day MA, which is better than most cannabis related stocks.
Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB) The Mother of all contrarian tradesAurora Cannabis has been on a downward spiral driven by a combination of multiple factors including Cannabis 2.0 slow roll out in Canadian provinces, amounting debt, recent Bond conversion and further dilution of existing shareholders, departing executives and a market glut of oversupply. Well, basically all things that could go wrong have gone wrong for Aurora, making it a clear "Sell" case; that is if you own the stock, ha!!... For those investors waiting on the sidelines, this could be a great entry point for the stock. Aurora just relesaed today a corporate update outlining long term strategy growth plans. The report can be accessed here: www.prnewswire.com
Whats next?
Aurora is the only major cannabis player that has not inked a deal with a major player in the CPG space, others like Canopy Growth and Tilray have inked deals that are already priced into the stock, raising additional capital and giving investors relief. Nonetheless, Aurora has not only sufficient assets (excluding goodwill) to weather the coming months and gain strength as global sales resumes, the Canadian market opens up and further developments in the US unfold in 2020. In addition, ACB just bought a Hemp company that will allow them to enter the CBD US market.
In summary, this could be an interesting time to take a position in ACB and increase gradually as events unfold with significant upside as the stock bottoms. One analyst is giving it a price target of $0, but in my own view, when I hear such unrealistic opinions like this, most often coincides with bear markets coming to a bottom and about to turn making this a High Risk, High Reward trade and could be, the mother of all contrarian trades as we close 2019 and enter into the new year.
Do not take this as an investment advice and always do your own research before investing... always remember to place tight stops and risk manage every step of the way!!
