Incoming $1trillion dollar correction for crypto people... ** weeks ahead **
Is the market top in? This next move in the market will certainly convince the crypto folks that it is.
According to social media, Youtube influencers etc.. the bull run is just beginning.
That is in despite of a swathe of News article headlines “Bitcoin reaches new all time high $100k” and the janitor I have not spoken to in 10 years asking me if I'm buying Bitcoin.
The signs are there.
On the above 6 day chart, the TOTAL crypto market capitalisation, currently 3.57 trillion dollars price action has risen 46% since the November breakout. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook:
1) Price action and RSI support breakdowns. Indeed the November breakouts requires confirmation of support on past resistance to allow for continuation. That's a long way down.
2) Support is exactly $1 trillion below at $2.57 trillion.
3) Price action is at a significant Fibonacci extension, look left.
4) This signal is found across the entire crypto market on both 6 day and weekly charts, in other words there is confluence across timeframes. That is important.
Is it possible speculators keep throwing good money after bad in the hope price go up? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.
TOTAL3 - Hanging man
OTHERS total - Hanging man
Candlestick Analysis
USDCHF: Bullish Move Confirmed 🇺🇸🇨🇭
It looks like a local correctional movement is over on USDCHF
and the pair is returning to a bullish trend.
The release of the today's US fundamentals made the pair
violate a resistance line of a narrow consolidation range on an hourly.
The price will most likely go up to 0.9007 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
POLKADOT- BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHERIn the midst of chaos, I've decided to increase my position in Polkadot, as I've been holding since $5.82. The structure continues to show bullish signals, and we’re still in a bull market. Moreover, the Christmas and New Year rally hasn’t even started yet.
For traders feeling anxious right now, it's better to step away from the screen and avoid making impulsive decisions. For those focused on knowledge and strategy, there’s no better moment to consider opening a long position—fully aware of the possibility that your stop-loss might be hit.
Trade Management:
Entry: $7 or market price
Stop-loss: $6.31 (keeping the previous position intact)
Remember to control your emotions and avoid overtrading. Maintaining liquidity is crucial—don’t put all your capital at risk. Protect your psychology and trust your skills. Don’t let the market shake your confidence in what you know works.
I’m sticking to my plan, as mentioned in my previous idea. Nothing changes if you follow your plan.
May God bless you all.
Jay
Buy under 100K and Target 125K by Jan 20Simple strategy of buying bitcoin when it's trading under 100K leading up to Trump Presidency, I don't see why Bitcoin can't continue to 125K by Jan 20 (Trump inauguration). Fed went from from dovish to dovish/neutral in my opinion, not hawkish. This is a buying opportunity and the strong reversal forming a bullish hammer after the cooling PCE report today is the confirmation to continue buying BTC here.
Devyani International can give a tasty breakout. Devyani International Ltd. engages in the development and operation of quick service restaurant. It operates through Within India and Outside India segments. The company manages brands like Costa Coffee, KFC, Pizza Hut, Vangoo and The Good Street.
Devyani International Ltd. CMP is 172.37. The Positive aspects of the company is Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and increasing revenues for last 4 Quarters. Book value of the share is also increasing for the last 2 years. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 644.2), Companies Increasing Debt as per Annual Report, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash.
Entry can be taken after closing above 174 Targets in the stock will be 181, 188 and 198. The long-term target in the stock will be 205, 218 and 223. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 167 or 158 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We have tried to draw a Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We will try to understand what is happening as per each indicator and try to get the jist of moves that may occur with a medium to long term perspective.
Indicator 1) Parallel Channel: The parallel channel indicates that after hitting the channel top at 26277 the Nifty is receding and is on a search of it's bottom from where it can launch forward again. That is the case when every time Nifty has it a channel top as you can see in the chart. The Future Channel Top once Nifty picks up the next Bull run seems to be around 29497 as per the parallel channel. Mid channel support of the parallel channel is around 23500 zone which can support Nifty. If we get a weekly closing below 23500 this level will become a resistance. In such a scenario of weekly closing below 23500 Channel bottom seems to be near 21296.
Indicator 2) Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement suggests a bottom near 23263. If this level is broken there is a possibility of Nifty falling to the next fibonacci supports will be at 22506 and 21577. Once the Bull run begins the next resistance levels as per Fibonacci seem to be at 24725, 26777 (Previous high), 27162 and finally 28331.
Indicator 3) Bollinger Band: Support with respect to lower width of Bollinger Band seems to be near 23340. Mid Bollinger band resistance seems to be near 24660 and Bollinger band upper width resistances seems to be near 25981.
Indicator 4) RSI or the Relative Strength Index: RSI currently is at 44.41 and going downwards showing weakness. The RSI support can be found in the zone of 40, 38 or 36. Usually When RSI is below 30 the stock or index is considered oversold and when the stock or index RSI is above 70 it is considered overbought. RSI Below 20 is extremely oversold zone and RSI above 80 is considered extremely overbought.
Indicator 5) MACD or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence: MACD is a combination of Moving averages lines which tend to indicate direction in which stock or index will move and histograms indicate strength or weakness of a rally. As per MACD Nifty right now is in extreme Bear grip and will take a little time to recover. When the Blue line will start moving upwards and when it might cross the red line and continue to move upwards it can be considered as Nifty will come back to Bull Zone. Colour of histograms at that time will also start going Dark Green or light Green.
Indicator 6) 50 and 200 weeks EMA or the Mother and Father line: I have designed a theory called Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. As per this theory the movement of index or a stock in the chart is like a movement of a 3 year old child when it goes to a garden. The movement of 50 EMA is like movement of the mother and movement of the 200 EMA is like movement of a Father of that child. To know more about this theory or other indicators mentioned earlier you need to read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. This book is available in Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. It is one of the Highest rated book in the category. Have a look at that book it will help you immensely in your wealth creation journey. Now as per this theory the Nifty right now is at 23587. 50 Weeks EMA is at 23403. 200 Weeks EMA is at 19335. as the Nifty is above these levels both these levels will work as a great support to Nifty and can help Nifty from falling further.
Conclusion: Nifty is approaching multiple supports from where it has potential to turnaround. Mid channel support is around 23500, 50 Weeks EMA support or the Mother line is at 23403. 23340 is the Bollinger band lower band width support. Fibonacci support is at 23263. We can see a turnaround mostly from either of these three supports. If these supports are broken by chance (looks less likely but you can never say never) then the next supports will be at 22507, 21296 or worst case scenario as of now looks like 19335. On the upper side resistances seem to be at 24660 Fibonacci mid resistance, 24725 is the Fibonacci resistance, 25981 is Bollinger band upper width resistance and 26277 is the Fibonacci resistnace which also the previous high of Nifty. Once this zone is crossed in a long term we can reach the targets of 27162 Fibonacci resistance, 28331 Fibonacci golden ratio resistnace and 29497 which is the approximate nex channel top. (This is the Medium to Long term outlook of Nifty).
This is how you can analyse any index or a stock using the 6 indicators mentioned in the writeup. I give top most priority to these 6 indicators in my analysis.
Disclaimer: Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Long trade
1Hr TF entry
Buyside trade
Mon 16th Dec
LND to Ny Session AM
8.00 am
Entry 1.49665
Profit level 1.51248 (1.06%)
Stop level 1.49231 (0.29%)
RR 3.65
Reason: Overview of the 1Hr TF we buyside momentum indicates buyside pressure since Mon 16th Dec 24, and narrative based on supply and demand for directional bias.
AMD - Weekly ChannelsLooking at AMD for potential long position. Previous times playing downward channels AMD usually breaks out of the channel on the 4th retest of bottom part of channel.
Could Enter on 3rd test with tight stop and early scales marked in orange.
With recent hawkish Fed on 12/18, we may see more downside (a 4th test) before a breakout from the channel.
Can The Major Support Zone Save Nifty From Falling Further?There is a triple Support zone that has been reached by Nifty. The Zone between today's low that is 23870 and 23692 has multiple supports of a trend line and Father Line of 200 day's EMA. Let us see if we have a revival from here. If that will be the case the next resistance zones will be 24019, 24175, 24416(Major Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) and 24529 (Major Trend Line Resistance).
If the support of 23870 is broken we will have to rely upon 23962 that is the major 200 day's EMa of Father line. If we get a closing below 23692 or the Father line. Bears will become more powerful and we may see them control the game. In such a scenario the supports will be at 23350, 23088 and 22828. So very critical weekly closing tomorrow. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to negative.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price
There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level.
Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern.
Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action.
The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading.
See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern.
This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions.
High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation.
The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
After the Fed’s Rate Cut: Gold’s Price Action and What’s NextYesterday was another wildly volatile day for OANDA:XAUUSD , with prices dropping approximately 600 pips following the Fed's rate cut.
After breaking below the 2645-2650 confluence support on Tuesday, the market entered a day of consolidation with a tight trading range.
However, the calm didn’t last long...
Yesterday's sharp decline took prices below the 2610-2615 technical support zone and even breached the critical 2600 level.
Overnight, Gold rebounded back above 2600, but in my opinion, this recovery is likely a normal retracement and does not signal a bottom for the yellow metal.
For bears, the sell zone begins at 2620 and extends slightly past 2630, accounting for the heightened volatility. This area presents an opportunity to look for short entries. The initial target for this move would be yesterday's low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold drop further toward the 2525 key support level in the near future.
As long as prices remain below the 2650-2660 resistance range, the outlook for XauUsd stays firmly bearish .
Silver Rebound Offers Short Trade Potential: Targeting $28In my weekend analysis, I highlighted the potential formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern in Silver's price, with the neckline positioned precisely at the psychologically significant $30 level.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut triggered a drop below this key level. Currently, OANDA:XAGUSD is experiencing a normal rebound.
This rebound may provide traders with an opportunity to consider short positions if the broken $30 level is retested.
The next significant support level is at $28, which could serve as the target for this potential move.
NILI.V Possible Trend Reversal & Entry - First AnalysisNILI.V (Surge Battery Metals)
Candlesticks:
This past week NILI.V closed Thursday with a dragonfly doji candle, followed by a bullish engulfing on friday. The last time a dragonfly doji appeared was on September 9th, which marked a trend reversal that resulted in a 90% in price over 45 days.
Technical Indicators:
MACD on the daily is about to crossover indicating a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Possible Entry:
looking for a confirmation on the trend reversal on Monday with a candle closing above the downward channel that Nili has been trading in over the past couple weeks. If that happens I will take a long position and be looking for profit taking opportunities at .40, .45, and .50 cent price ranges.
I am new to trading and this is my first analysis. Let me know what you think and if I got anything wrong here, any feedback is appreciated!
Long trade
4Hr TF overview
Trade Setup Breakdown:
Trade Type: Buyside (Long position)
Date: Monday, December 16, 2024
Time: 5:00 AM
Timeframe: 4-hour (4H) chart
Session: Tokyo to London (AM session)
Entry 1.42471
Profit level 1.45600 (2.20%)
Stop level 1.42119 (0.25%)
RR 8.89
Reason: Overlooking the 4Hr TF and monitoring USDCAD indicates buyside momentum at this time.
NZDCAD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 30
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection from AOi
Bearish Harami formed on the Weekly
Daily Rejection from AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.82500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 6.05
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
EconOptic| We are still in the ascending channel Bitcoin Analysis in the 4-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a price correction, reaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as the midline of the channel lacked sufficient strength to support the price.
The observed correction and decline were stronger than the previous upward wave, which may indicate the sellers' dominance. However, since the price remains within an ascending channel and the overall trend is bullish, I do not recommend opening short positions at this time.
My first trigger for a short position would be a lower high formation and a confirmed break below the ascending channel's bottom line.
For long positions, the safest entry remains above the green line at **107,538**. Alternatively, another viable option could be waiting for price consolidation and the formation of a new breakout trigger, likely around the midline of the ascending channel. This scenario would be ideal if accompanied by a decrease in red candle volume and an increase in green candle volume, signaling momentum building in favor of the trend.
i recommend you to use safe stoploss .
Conclusion:
While the recent correction suggests increasing selling pressure, the overall bullish trend and channel structure indicate better opportunities for long positions. A confirmed breakout trigger with momentum support will provide the most favorable entry for buyers.
Thank you for reading this analysis.
-EconOptic