EURCAD Short-term buy signal.The EURCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Down for the past 15 months and right now is on a Bullish Leg towards its top. The 1D RSI is approaching the overbought barrier of 70.00 and we believe it will give a sell signal after it breaks above, just like November 21 2023 and July 14 2023.
Until then, we will stay bullish, targeting the top of the 15-month Channel Down at 1.49750.
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Canadiandollar
Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks.
Tuesday, May 28
Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia
Wednesday, May 29
Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc.
Thursday, May 30
Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada
Friday, May 31
8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP
Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank
The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
USDCAD Strong sell following today's rejection.USDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.081, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 32.778) as it formed a Lower High yesterday and today got sold aggressively. This is a Channel Down since the April 16th High, which having broken under the 1D MA50, has confirmed the continuation of the bearish price action. We expect the 1D RSI to at least hit the 30.000 level, as every rejection on the R1 Zone, saw the pair reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. We are bearish, aiming at that level (TP = 1.34350).
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AUDCAD:🔴Bearish scenario...!🔴
Hello Traders
As you can see the price purged the daily buy-side liquidity and then the market structure was shifted on the hourly chart.
Now the price is inside a range, creating the double purge scenario for us.
If the price sweeps the buy side liquidity first, it is a chance to enter the sell position with LTF confirmation.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
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Will EURCAD pop higher?EURCAD EASYMARKETS:EURCAD
Disclaimer:
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Canadian Dollar Futures Trading Plan and ExplanationAfter analyzing options trades on CME, we found a promising opportunity to short Canadian Dollar. The option contract is for April with an expiration date of April 5, 2024.
We noticed an interesting option portfolio on March 22 that aligns with the trigger level on the futures chart (refer to chart). A trigger level is a graphical pattern on the underlying asset that
prompts traders to take or avoid specific trading actions.
For the Canadian futures chart, the trigger level is the price breakdown of the local resistance at 0.7403-0.07406. Opening long positions at the breakdown point was encouraged by the bullish shape and intensity of the candlestick with minimal shadows. This level was attractive for making purchases for both chartists and adepts of candlestick analysis.
The study of options trading has revealed that these levels are useful for opening counter positions when the price reaches them. To execute this strategy, smart traders use naked options in advance, specifically PUT options with a strike of 0.74. By utilizing the leverage effect of options, traders can create substantial short positions on futures contracts while maintaining a risk-free position for a limited time.
IMPORTANT! We do not expect the price to move towards the strike level. Instead, we recommend using the obtained exchange data and analyzing it to gain an edge when opening a trade, providing a better starting point and improving the risk/reward ratio.
NZDCAD Going for a 0.786 Rejection. Trade at the right time.The NZDCAD pair just completed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first since June 20 2023. Even though the price rebounded inside the 1.5 years Higher Lows Zone, the prevailing pattern since December 2023 is a Channel Down.
With the July 14 2023 High formed (and rejected) on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, it is possible to see a rejection on the new 0.786 Fib, which now happens to be exactly at the top of the Channel Down.
As a result, as long as the pair doesn't close a 1D candle above the 0.786 Fib, we are bearish, targeting 0.80300 (the -0.136 Fib extension). If the 1D candle gets closed above the 0.786 Fib, we will take the small loss and buy, targeting 0.85000.
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CADCHF About to turn bullish long-term.The CADCHF pair Has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since January 2023 but recently it has shown growing signs that the long-term bearish trend is coming to an end. First of all, it formed the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since April 01 2022. Since then, it has held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as Supports.
The strongest bullish development is that it turned the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), where it was rejected on September 29 2023, from a long-term Resistance to Support. The last time that this series of events happened following a 1D Golden Cross, was within December 2020 - January 2021. Even the 1D RSI fractals between the two are similar. What the past fractal did after turning those MAs into Supports, was rally aggressively above the previous Resistance.
As a result we turn bullish now on this pair, expecting the Channel Down to break upwards, and target 0.69650 (Resistance 1).
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NZDCAD: Scalping Setup?! 🇳🇿🇨🇦
There is a nice scalping buying opportunity on NZDCAD.
The price test a solid rising trend line on a 4H time frame.
As a bullish confirmation, the price formed a double bottom
pattern on 30 minutes time frame and broke its neckline.
We can expect a bullish movement to 0.8147 / 0.8158 levels.
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EUR/CAD: Leveraging Range-Bound Trading OpportunitiesThe EUR/CAD pair, since January 1st, 2023, has been traversing within a defined range, characterized by notable reversals between support and resistance levels. Recent market movements have unveiled a potential reversal pattern, signaling opportunities for astute traders.
Initiating from its recent peak at 1.5050, EUR/CAD has embarked on a new trajectory, marked by a reversal pattern that warrants close attention. Notably, during Friday's trading session, the price encountered resistance, failing to surpass the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its preceding lower low. This development underscores the significance of technical analysis in discerning potential market movements.
Moreover, seasonal trends play a pivotal role in shaping price dynamics, and EUR/CAD is no exception. Historical data indicates a seasonal pattern where prices tend to decline until October. Armed with this insight, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalize on anticipated price movements.
At our trading desk, we are closely monitoring these developments, poised to seize opportunities presented by the current market configuration. Leveraging our analysis, we are inclined to open a short position, targeting the 1.4200 level. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the possibility of further downward movement, potentially breaching the support level of the established range area.
GBPCAD Sell the spikeThe GBPCAD pair gave us a solid short-term sell signal last time (January 29, see chart below):
At the moment it is declining within a Channel Down pattern which emerged after the 6th rejection on the Resistance Zone. Having broken below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we are expecting a short-term rebound to price the new Lower High and fail on the 1D MA50 test as a Resistance.
There is a strong Support confluence below, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and Support 1 (1.67685), our Target is at 1.6700, marginally below those on the dashed Higher Lows trend-line, always above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
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CADJPY: Follow the breakout or rejection. Low risk trades.CADJPY is just above the bullish barrier on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.297, MACD = 0.230, ADX = 26.548) despite the fact that it is near the HH trendline of the Ascending Triangle and supported at the same time by the 1D MA50. Technically this calls for a decline and the minimum inside this pattern is the 1D MA200 (TP = 109.350). If it crosses over the HH trendline and closes a 1D candle over it, we will go long, aiming at the top of the Channel Up that will prevail (TP = 115.500).
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USDCAD Near the 5-month High. Strong SELL.The USDCAD pair hit our 1.36200 Target (February 09, see chart below) and even broke above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone:
The price now sits at the top of the 2024 Channel Up, a similar pattern with the July 14 - November 01 2023 Channel Up. In fact the pair is approaching that November 01 High (Resistance 1) and being at the same time on an overbought 1D RSI while the 1W RSI is approaching the 13-month Resistance Zone, is turning into a very strong sell again.
Such tops have given a minimum of -3.23% declines (February 02 2023) during this 18-month period that the pair has been ranging. As a result, our new medium-term Target is 1.34500.
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AUDCAD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.713, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 36.219) as it is testing the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 periods at the bottom of February's Channel Up. This is a technical buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk, since as long as the Channel Up holds, we can target a Higher High at +2.30% (TP = 0.90500) like the one before. If the Channel Up breaks the loss will be minimal and we'll be able to short and target the S1 level (TP = 0.87300).
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