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Canadiandollar

NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US Q3 earnings season is one to be kept on the radar this incoming week. Any surprise positive or negative announcements from the National Congress of the CCP will be important to watch as well. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with it’s first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. Just like the week before, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp later this month. That makes the CPI data this upcoming week all the more interesting. Even though inflation is still high, both core and headline 3M annualized CPI saw continued moves lower with the AUG print. Another bigger-than-expected miss will be an interesting one for markets to navigate and could provide some short-term opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Biggest focus for the CAD in the week ahead will be the SEP CPI print where a further sign of strong deceleration will be an interesting one to watch, especially after the very recent hawkish BoC comments. Monday’s Business Outlook Survey is also one to watch as the release can cause strong directional flows as well. Apart from that, from a risk sentiment perspective we also need to watch the US Q3 earnings season ramping up this week.
by thunderpips
4
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. Friday’s jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with it’s first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, that means the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. Apart from the data though, the CAD also got a lift from fairly hawkish BoC Macklem comments, who talked up higher rates despite recent slowing in the data, seeing markets pricing in a higher probability for a 50bsp hike again this month. Oil prices also got a decent lift after the week’s OPEC meeting where a 2mln B/D production cut pushed more focus on the shortterm supply drivers for oil. Even though correlation to oil has been a hit and miss in recent weeks, it provide some additional support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 75bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Like most currencies the week ahead schedule is extremely light for the CAD, which means US CPI, Q3 Earning Season and further oil developments should be the main driver for the CAD.
by thunderpips
6
GBPCAD: Your Trading Plan 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Hey traders, I spotted a cute bullish flag pattern on GBPCAD pair. After a strong bullish impulse, the market started a correctional movement within its boundaries. To catch the next bullish move, wait for a bullish breakout of the flag's resistance. We need a 4H candle close above that to confirm the breakout. Targets will be 1.536 / 1.5445 If the price breaks the support of the flag, the setup will be invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
6
Canadian Dollar at Risk as USD/CAD Attempts Uptrend ResumptionThe Canadian Dollar may be vulnerable to the US Dollar with USD/CAD attempting to resume the broader uptrend. USD/CAD is attempting to confirm a breakout above the June 26th, 2020 high at 1.3716. Still, prices need to clear the September 2022 high at 1.3833 to open the door to extend gains. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence is present. This is a sign of fading upside momentum which can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome could open the door to testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the dominant upside focus. But, the line is currently sitting at 1.3350. With that in mind, be mindful of near-term downside potential before the broader uptrend could resume. FX_IDC:USDCAD
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
CADCHF 1 year Support + Channel Down bottomThe CADCHF pair hit for the second time in 7 days the 1 year Support Zone that has been holding since the August 20 2021 Low. This Zone has provided three rebounds in total. At the same time the price is near the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started after the June 09 High and its 1D RSI is on a similar bullish divergence such as the previous Lower Low on June 24. The common parameter on all the above rebounds is that they hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our target on the short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURCAD: Very Bullish Outlook 🇪🇺🇨🇦 One more breakout that I spotted today is a bullish violation of a horizontal supply zone and a major falling trend line on EURCAD. Forming a high momentum bullish candle, the market successfully closed above them both. I think that it will trigger a further bullish continuation. Next resistances: 1.358 / 1.368 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
💵U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵Analyze (9/29/2022)!!!U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar was able to break the Trend line near the resistance zone, and now we are watching the pullback. I expect U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar to go down to at least the targets I specified in my chart. 🔅U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar Analyze ( USDCAD ) Timeframe 2H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
NZDCAD Short-term buy and break-out levels------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The NZDCAD pair has been following a very specific trading pattern which we have outlined since June and has given us excellent trades: As you see the key here is a recurring bearish sequence within this Channel Down. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is intact as the Resistance, expect Lower Lows within the Channel. Right now, with the 1D RSI breaching the 30.000 oversold barrier and rebounding, we expect at least a short-term rise, as it happened with all 4 other occurrences since March 24 2021. The target is slightly lower than the 1D MA50. If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will consider this a bullish break-out signal targeting the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
GBPCAD The RSI hasn't been this oversold since 1985!------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The GBPCAD pair has been on a strong yearly decline, especially as of late. The 1M (monthly) RSI is currently at 20.87, the lowest it has been since January 1985. That is a good enough reason of its own to buy the pair. There are striking resemblances with the early 2000s fractal. A rebound on the Channel Down pattern's bottom can push the price all the way to its top and the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Be ready to offset some risk though to complete a -24.85% decline, if the Channel's bottom breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDCAD I've entered a short 🔻USDCAD short trade has alerted. Reversal trade identified and entered. Working the 30M timeframe. Trade details can be found on the chart in the red label. Trade box is tracking the trade. Has USD strength ran out of steam on this pair? Who knows be it a change in the trend or a slight retrace I have a 77 pip target for my TP to be met. We'll see where it ends up. Want to know how I identified this trade you know what to do. Thanks for looking Darren🙌
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
Check USDCAD!Guidance: the policy rate will need to rise further, the bank will be assessing how much higher interest rates will need to go to return inflation to target Headline inflation eased because of lower gasoline prices but price pressures are broadening, especially in services Growth was a bit weaker than expected at 3.3% in Q2, but domestic demand is very strong. The housing market is pulling back as anticipated. The bank expects growth to moderate further during the rest of the year.
Short
by xxpqxx999
1
💵U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵Analyze (update) !!!U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar is running near the Resistance line & Resistance zone, Also, it completed its microwave 5. I expect that U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar will go down at least to the Support zone. 🔅U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar Analyze ( USDCAD ) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2