WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: DXY, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHFWelcome to another Weekly Forex Forecast.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
CAD
NZD
CHF
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May profits be upon you.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
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CAD
USDCAD is Forming a Down TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a selling opportunity around 1.37400 zone, USDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.37400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Heading into overlap resistance, could it reverse?NZD/CAD is rising towards the pivot and could potentially reverse from this level to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.83992
1st Support: 0.83442
1st Resistance: 0.84341
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPCAD About to test the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The GBPCAD pair is on the latest Bearish Leg of the underlying Channel Up (blue) pattern and is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 14. Once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect a continuation of the Bearish Leg all the way to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
Since 2023, -2.66% to -3.08% pull-backs have been common on this pair. As a result, we are looking towards the minimum -2.66% decline, which gives us a Target of 1.71500 and will make a technical Higher Low on the Channel.
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NZDCAD: Policy Divergence Favoring the KiwiHello Traders,
In today's trading session, we are keeping a close watch on NZDCAD for a promising buying opportunity around the 0.83900 level. After experiencing a prolonged downtrend, NZDCAD has successfully broken out and is currently in a correction phase. This correction is bringing the pair closer to a critical support and resistance zone at 0.83900, making it a prime area for potential buy entries.
The ongoing policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) adds an extra layer of favorability for the NZD over the CAD. The RBNZ's more accommodative stance compared to the BoC's policies provides a supportive backdrop for the NZD, further bolstering the case for a buying opportunity at this level.
Trade safely,
Joe
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/CAD is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.75140
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.75979
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.73398
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could the Loonie rise from here?Price is currently on a support level which is an overlap support an could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3699
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.3665
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.3764
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Why have CAD short positions hit record high? Net short position in the Canadian dollar is at their largest since data collection began in 1986. As of June 11, non-commercial accounts increased their net short positions in the Canadian dollar to 129,493 contracts, up from 91,639 the previous week, data from LSEG and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed
The Bank of Canada (BoC) become the first G7 central bank to start cutting interest rate this month. The central bank’s members deliberated postponing the rate cut until July but ultimately opted for an early reduction of 25 basis points (bps), according to the bank's meeting minutes.
In April, Canada’s inflation rate reached 2.7%. The BoC will have two more inflation reports before its next scheduled interest rate decision on July 24, with the first report due next Tuesday.
For the exact date and time, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Market expectations suggest a further 57 bps of rate cuts by year-end, contingent on inflation forecasts holding correct.
Traders are also closely monitoring the housing market's response to lower interest rates and evaluating the economic impact of rapid population growth, which surpassed 41 million as of April 1, according to Statistics Canada. The country’s population is growing by approximately 80,000 people per month.
Buy GBP/CAD Double BottomThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Double Bottom Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Double Bottom After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.7433.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.7520
2nd Resistance – 1.7573
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.7395. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
USDCAD Signals: Bullish Breakout Above 1.3000USDCAD – technical overview
Above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.
R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
S1 1.3662 – 7 June low – Medium
S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong
USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Canadian Dollar is coming out of a rare session in which it outperformed its peer group. Canada housing data was behind the relative strength after May housing starts accelerated at the fastest pace since September 2023. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone and German sentiment reads, Eurozone CPI, US retail sales, US industrial production, and Fed speak.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Bullish bounce?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3701
1st Support: 1.3662
1st Resistance: 1.3765
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZD/CAD: Capitalizing on RBNZ Stability and BoC DovishnessHello Traders,
In the coming week, we are closely monitoring NZD/CAD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.84090 zone. NZD/CAD is currently trading in an uptrend and is undergoing a correction phase, bringing it closer to the key support and resistance area at 0.84090. This level has historically served as a significant pivot point for price action, making it an attractive entry point for long positions.
From a fundamental perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is maintaining a steady stance and is not looking to cut rates anytime soon. In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) seems to be on pace to cut rates, given the easing inflationary pressures in Canada. This divergence in monetary policy favors the NZD over the CAD, adding strength to our bullish outlook on NZD/CAD.
Additionally, the overall bullish sentiment in the stock market could further benefit NZD/CAD due to the positive correlation between risk-on environments and NZD strength. This confluence of technical and fundamental factors makes the 0.84090 zone a strategic area to look for buying opportunities in NZD/CAD.
Trade safely,
Joe
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/CAD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.75140
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.75979
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.73398
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AUDCAD is approaching a significant support areaHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.90600 zone, AUDCAD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.90600 support and resistance area.
We would also like to consider the current bullish momentum on stocks, due to the positive correlation AUDCAD can benefit from that!
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?USD/CAD is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3781
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3828
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.3684
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into pullback resistance, could it reverse from here?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3780
1st Support: 1.3684
1st Resistance: 1.3830
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDCAD to continue in the upward move?USDCAD - 24h expiry
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Short term RSI is moving higher.
A move through 1.3750 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.3780.
We look to Buy at 1.3725 (stop at 1.3700)
Our profit targets will be 1.3790 and 1.3810
Resistance: 1.3750 / 1.3775 / 1.3780
Support: 1.3725 / 1.3700 / 1.3675
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could potentially reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3735
1st Support: 1.3664
1st Resistance: 1.3781
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Sell USDCAD Breakout PatternThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3750, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3708
2nd Support – 1.3670
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3800. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
USD/CAD Faces Resistance at 1.3780, Potential Reversal in SightThe USD/CAD pair has reached the 1.3780 area of resistance, signaling a potential reversal. This comes in the wake of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, which dispelled fears of a weakening labor market. The report indicated strong labor demand across all sectors and higher-than-expected wage growth.
Market Dynamics
1. Strong NFP Report: The latest NFP data highlighted a resilient labor market, easing concerns about a slowdown. This strength in the labor market has influenced market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Investors now anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, likely in November or December. This outlook is shaping the market's response to recent economic data.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
To gain more insights into the Fed’s potential actions, investors are keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy announcement, both scheduled for Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further clarity on the interest rate outlook.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.3780. The price action suggests a potential reversal as it encounters this resistance.n.
in conclusion the USD/CAD pair is at a critical juncture, facing resistance at the 1.3780 level. The strong NFP report for May has bolstered the USD, but upcoming CPI data and the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be crucial in determining the next move. From a technical standpoint, signs are pointing towards a potential reversal at this resistance level. Investors and traders should remain vigilant and look for clear reversal signals before making trading decisions.
USD/CAD: Capitalizing on Soft CPI and Dovish Fed ExpectationsHello Traders,
In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring USD/CAD for a potential selling opportunity around the 1.37200 zone. Recently, USD/CAD was trading in an uptrend but successfully broke out of this trend. Currently, it is in a correction phase and is approaching the key retrace area at the 1.37200 support and resistance zone. This level is crucial as it has historically served as a significant pivot point for price action.
From a fundamental perspective, today's CPI data came in softer than expected, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, compared to the anticipated 3.4%. This lower-than-expected inflation reading suggests that inflationary pressures are not as strong as the market had anticipated.
The softer CPI data has important implications for the Federal Reserve's policy stance. A lower inflation rate reduces the urgency for the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively. As a result, the likelihood of the Fed adopting a more dovish stance increases, which could involve maintaining or even easing current monetary policies. This dovish outlook would likely weaken the US dollar, creating a favorable environment for USD/CAD shorts.
Additionally, this evening we have the FOMC meeting, where further insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction will be provided. The combination of today's soft CPI data and the FOMC's potential dovish tone strengthens the case for a bearish outlook on the US dollar.
Given these fundamental factors, the 1.37200 zone becomes an attractive area to look for short positions in USD/CAD. A weaker dollar, driven by dovish Fed expectations, should support further downside for USD/CAD, making this level a strategic entry point for selling opportunities.
Trade safely,
Joe