Get started

Cableshort

GBPUSD Short at/near 1.30Cable breaking out of range and closed the week above prior high suggest the move up is not done yet. How high can cable go before a recovery / continuation down? 1.3000 Why? Because its the yearly central pivot point and look left its also a gap where price accelerated lower. The conservative target is around 1.2550. The more aggressive target is back to range low around 1.22 - 1.20 Tactical traders can buy the move into 1.30 ofcourse. But its not the ideal long in terms of asymmetric risk/reward.
Short
by iamingenious
Sterling heading for the 1.21 level?Good Evening Traders, The pound has broken through key support and resistance, now at the sloping support level. After the key S/R being broken, we had a retrace and then a continuation of the down trend. I believe the sterling now has the momentum to head back to the 1.21 level, previously seen post October flash crash. With only months before Prime Minister, Theresa May triggering article 50, the cable lacks strength with uncertainties remaining high. In the meantime, I'll be watching for a potential price squeeze, otherwise a break of the sloping support. TWITTER: BrightForex Many thanks, Ike
Short
by IkeOkeke
CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and TechnicalGBPUSD is trading above 1.33 today, despite the broad risk-off sentiment which has seen JPY up on the day. Fundamentally: Fed members are hawkish, and at least 1 rate hike is on the table this year. September is a close call - and if we believe the hawkish rhetoric of the FOMC recently - the market is underpricing a rate hike in September. This is bullish for USD. The UK has seen a slew of good data, however the risks of Brexit remain, as well as the uncertainty about the process itself. Furthermore, it is likely that BoE cut rates in November to protect the economy from such risks, in the event they do arise. QE is still ongoing, however GBPUSD trades above pre-QE levels. This may mean Sterling is overvalued in the near term. Technically: there is strong resistance at 1.345 / 1.35. The hourly chart shows strong divergence above 1.34. There is much risk to the downside - 500 pips till the post-Brexit low of 1.28. CFTC data: a few weeks ago, GBP shorts were at record highs. Since then, shorts have reduced. This suggests there is potential for shorts to start building positions again, and that the GBP short squeeze came to an end when Cable was abruptly rejected from 1.345. Many major banks forecast Cable below 1.30 by the end of the year. I agree with this, and am short from 1.33 until 1.30, after which I will re-enter short on pullbacks or on a clear break of 1.30.
Short
by Exercise-Discipline
CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and TechnicalGBPUSD reached 1.326 today off the back of a strong manufacturing PMI (53.3 vs 49.0 consensus). Fundamentally: Sterling should remain pressured, as manufacturing has a limited contribution to UK GDP, and the uncertainty of Brexit still looms. As long as this uncertainty remains, BoE should still look to cut rates and maintain QE. Technically: There is strong resistance at 1.325-1.327, from which Cable was rejected on the 24th and 26th of August. Furthermore, end of month (August) flows were unusually positive for Cable, suggesting that there may be room for further downside in September. Risks: the major risk for Cable shorts at present is the UK Construction PMI and US NFP on Friday. However, an above-expectations NFP report would set the stage for continued dollar strength heading into the FOMC decision on September 21. Also, a break of 1.328, sustained through 1.33, may make a short trade on Cable invalid - at which point we would look to hedge our short position until 1.35.
Short
by Exercise-Discipline
2
GBPUSD - Potential SHORT - Week Commencing 29th August 2016Last week, Yellen stated that positive US reports have opened up the idea of a rate hike in September and we will need to see more positive US reports for the rate hike to be confirmed. This acted as a huge catalyst on Friday allowing the US Dollar to break TL on most pairs. As it stands the Dollar is looking bullish with investors waiting for US reports to solidify expectations of a rate hike. The next big report will be the US non farm payroll, scheduled to be released on 02/09/2016. This report is forecasted to be lower than the previous month but a higher than expected result will definitely provide the right catalyst and help the dollar continue its bull run. On Friday, price broke the bullish TL on GBPUSD after retesting and failing to close above the 71% fib line. In the coming week we expect price to retest the recently broken TL and continue down to the 1.29000 level as speculation for a September rate hike increases.
Short
by AlexanderPitt
GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 2I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense SEE PART 1 ALSO GBPUSD historical Price Action The findings of previous the attached "Price action history posts" led to the conclusion that referendum history clearly wasn't repeating itself however IMO because this is the case it has opened up massive opportunities - for example; - Price Action for the SUR sold off a massive 1000pips 8 weeks before the vote, then recovered 400pips 2wks leading into the vote in 2014 - such price action didnt present much trading opportunity since the risks were priced so early, many retail investors missed the big move and probably made heavy losses by shorting in the 2wks into the event when the market actually rose. - HOWEVER, the market for the UER has been trading sideways/ directionless (with a slight upwards bias) for over 16wks only gaining from 1.41-1.45, with many candles failing to hold onto their extreme high/lows - simply open-close at median levels which further confirms the lack of conviction; this has meant that GU now trades considerably ABOVE lows at 1.38 which means there is clear room for a down trend to emerge and thus we can be confident/ safe in taking SHORTS on the pair at levels signif above the 1.38, as we can assume that the market will seek out the recent 1.38 lows if a downtrend does emerge - theres a clear and nearby target for a downtrend. Fundamentals and Summary - FOMC has started its hike cycle, GU is extremely sensitive to US rates and shed well over 1000pips in the run up and after the December FOMC meeting (compared to the EURO who still trades above hike levels). Thus we can assume that future rate increases, or the speculation that they will increase, will continue to price GU lower. The UK BOE isnt likely to raise Rates until late 2017/2018 as our economy (CPI 0.3% vs US 1.1%/ Core 1.2% vs US 2.1%), thus this Monetary Policy divergence theme is likely to continue for sometime, consequently devaluing GBP consistently lower and lower in the future, as it has done before, which gives me confidence in this part of the trade. Furthermore, in the short term the UK EU Referendum will serve as uncertainty that will undoubtably drive GU down in the near term - regardless of the result as the uncertainty WILL drive rational investors from holding sterling. - I like being short sterling over the short and long term as the CB Policy divergence, imo, will serve as a consistent underlying seller of GBP over the next 1/2 years whilst the UK EU Ref provides us near term downside pressure. ALSO, being short sterling into the Ref and into future FOMC meetings means you benefit from the carry of the "event tail risks" e.g. you are positively exposed to any probabilisticly unlikely, but possible, events - which would be extremely profitable e.g. if UK vote to leave EU you have downside already placed on GBP or if FOMC steepen the hiking curve we are positioned to benefit. - As discussed earlier, over the weekend i thought using CHF or JPY to combine with short GBP or EUR may be effective as 1. CHF and JPY both havent priced lower as heavily as USD (relatively more downside value available). 2. By being long CHF/JPY on the basis of being short GBP because of Brexit risks, you are able to hold the risk-off assets which make the trade 2-way e.g. you collect the GBP Brexit uncertainty selling AND the JPY/CHF buying as investors flee to safety - such 2-way trades create exponentially more downside momentum since you have TWO drivers. TRADING STRATEGY: SELL/ FADE ANY PULL BACKS IN A PYRAMID e.g. 3@1.450, 2@1.445 & 1@1.44! SL: 1.48 - holding until June 23/24th, or 27th of July for all 2 X FOMC and the BREXIT REF event volatility carry TP: Fed hike = <1.38; Fed Hawk = 1.40; Brexit uncertainty = <1.40; Brexit YES = < 1.345. Brexit & Hike = <1.30
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4