GBPJPY The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged, aligning with broad expectations. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden again voted to lower the rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%.
The BoE indicated that as part of the August (rate cut) forecast, the Committee will review all available information to assess whether the risks of persistent inflation are diminishing. Based on this assessment, the Committee will determine how long the Bank Rate should be maintained at the current level.
Despite CPI falling to 2% in May, the Bank expects CPI to "rise slightly" in the second half of the year due to base effects from last year's energy price declines. Additionally, the Bank noted that services inflation at 5.7% was "somewhat higher" than projected in the May monetary policy report.
In terms of growth, GDP appears to have grown "more strongly than expected" in the first half of the year but remains at a quarterly growth rate of around 0.25%.
Market Outlook: We are less concerned with the timing of the BoE's first rate cut and more focused on the expected limited and gradual rate cuts. For us, the biggest issue is not necessarily the timing of the first rate cut, but the pace and extent of rate cuts after the first one. In an era of global economic fragmentation, supply-side fluctuations, and fiscal activism, 2% is the lower bound for inflation, not the upper limit. This suggests a gradual easing cycle, with rates stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels.
Gbpjpy again has a potential buy pattern and if it crosses the pivot we can first expect a down market and further a potential further downward or upward retracement.
bullish targets:
202.05
202.30
202.57
202.80
Bearish Targets:
201.50
201.28
201.02
200.80
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