BTCUSD: Another 6 months of sideways trading. Then...BTCUSD is on a bullish 1D technical outlook and more importantly yesterday's rise pushed the 1W timeframe into technical buy levels (RSI = 55.657, MACD = 575.600, ADX = 23.863). This is more than encouraging as it keeps Bitcoin in Bull Cycle territory, over the 1W MA50. What we should be using as a benchmark is the Halving event. Next one is estimated to be in April 2004, while those prior where on May 11th 2020, July 9th 2016 and November 28th 2012.
We are 24 weeks-168 days before the 2024 Halving. At the same time range before all past Halvings, Bitcoin has been on the 1W MA50 at least. This is why it is very uncouraging that we haven't crossed under it despite basically being sideways for 6 whole months. At the time of the past Halvings, the price was at best (historic max) -47.49% from the ATH at the time and at worst (historic low) -60.57%. This provides an estimated price range at the time of the next Halving between 37200 and 27500.
That means that most likely we have another 6 months of basically sideways action ahead of us until the April 2024 Halving. Then it should take almost as much time to reach the 69800 ATH.
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BTC will history repeat?1D time frame
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According to left chart, Bitcoin pumped rapidly on 25th Oct '19, which date range was around 198 Days away from 2020 halving, Bitcoin increased by 45% in two days.
Next, Bitcoin made a waterfall over 60% since Feb '20, then Bull market was triggered.
Nowadays, Bitcoin extremely increased by 20% in Oct '23, and we need around 200 Days to reach next halving in 2024. All phenomenons are similar to 2019, so we can expect a huge dump based on previous analysis of Bitcoin top structure(refer to below links). Therefore, stay patient and get ready to buy spot!
Accurate Bitcoin analysis about top structure and bear bottom.
Bitcoin PRZ analysis of Harmonic pattern.
$BTC's Key Resistance Trendline for This WeekBTC has been very bullish since late September and early October, but has reached strong resistance at $28k. The orange trendline is a key price target where BTC bulls and bears are struggling to gain control over this price level. The trendline acted as support for a few hours before ultimately breaking below, and is currently acting as short-term resistance. For now BTC is trading in a range between the white support zone and the $28k resistance level. In order for BTC to climb up higher this orange trendline needs to be flipped into support. The markets have been affected by the new Israel Palestine conflict. Other key events this week are September PPI inflation data and Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday October 11. I think the markets are likely to have some sideways price action on Tuesday in anticipation of the new inflation and fed data.
BTC excellent short entry 29k12h time frame
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Bitcoin dumps 1.5% today, and many people think the huge dump is coming. However, if we take a look at the uptrend since 24901 on 12th Sep, this uptrend line has not been broken yet which means Bitcoin is still on the upward way. Combining with 0.618 Fibonacci Projection, there is a structural support around 27000~27300. Therefore, we can set up a trading plan once Bitcoin reach and get support at that zone, and target is 29000~29500, also the excellent entry to open short as we pointed out in previous Bitcoin two analysis: the critical pattern-Head and Shoulders(ref.1) and PRZ of Harmonic pattern(ref.2). Both targets are 18500~15800.
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ref.1 Head and Shouders
ref.2 Harmonic pattern
BTCUSD 1D : Try to breach the resistance BTCUSD
New forecast
The price of BTCUSD rose up during last week and reached to our first target near to resistance zone 28345 - 28900 and now offers side trades below the resistance
Now as we see in the chart the price trading in the bullish channel for a long so we expect the price will be continue at the bullish trend but to confirm the bullish trend should stable above the resistance zone to open the way from our target .
Therefore ,the upward trend scenario will be remain valid and effective once stabilized above resistance zone and our target will be 31044 and 33022 ,Taking into account that failed to stabilized above the resistance zone will force the price to start correction and visit the previous broken areas ,so the main condition to be continue at the bullish trend is stabilized above resistance and other wise the price will retest .
wait for breach the resistance and when we see the price action then we will buy it
The expect range trading for this week it will be between 33022 and 24828.
support line : 25819 , 24828
resistance line : 28345 , 28902
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
BTC target 29k in October4h time frame
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According to previous analysis about Butterfly pattern on Bitcoin(ref.1), there is a PRZ around 29000~29400. Today, we are going to talk about the time analysis, if take a look at the analysis about Bitcoin bear bottom (ref.2), a potential top structure-head and shoulders was pointed out in that post. Further, separating the left shoulder into two waves, from the dumping wave(31000~24700) took 62 days to create. This date range allows us to estimate the time that right shoulder needs, and the best timing to reach RS top is before end of October.
Obviously, once Bitcoin start pumping and going into PRZ, we can open short there, and there are two scenarios(white & blue trend), I will talk about these two potential scenarios, including target, stop loss and risk in near future
ref.1
ref.2
BTC small Heand and Shoulders1h time frame
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Bitcoin broke the downtrend line on 2nd Oct. Currently, Bitcoin is retesting to search R/S balance zone, also is creating a potential HS on 1h time frame, which is good for retesting structure because it shows potentially available support. However, we need to consider the possibility of longer consolidation, so this bottom HS trading plan will only be triggered while breaking neckline at 27650.
BTC 2 scenarios about short & long2h time frame
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(1)Head and Shoulders
On the left chart, Bitcoin made a potential HS as our previous analysis. Currently Bitcoin broke the neckline at 26378 and is going to retest it, if get rejection at 26378 again and broke below 25990, Bitcoin will finish the retest of HS structure, and target is 25270.
(2) Falling wedge
On the right chart, Bitcoin is creating a potential wedge, which could be regarded as the continuation structure of the pump wave(24853~27485). Bitcoin might make a lower low at 25800 to reach the wedge bottom again, where is also the Fibonacci retracement 0.382. Therefore, we can keep an eye on that range to open long, if Bitcoin get rid of this falling wedge, target is 27484~27827 first.
Bull Run For BTC Traders. My Trade Lookout. {24/09/2023}Educational Analysis says BTCUSD may go Long according to my technical.
This is not an entry signal. I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis.
Why long?
Broker Binance.
Because BTCfair value gaps are unfilled in a 4-hour time frame.
So one trade is already on with RR is 1: 17.43
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS.
Happy Trading, Fxdollars.
BTC potential reversal zone 29.5k12h time frame
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According to previous analysis, Bitcoin made a false breakout(or stop hunting) again.
This PA usually creates V shape as we see recently, current question is where does this pump reach, I think the top of this pump is the best opportunity to short before next BTC halving in 2024.
If we take a step back, there is a potential harmonic pattern(shark structure), its D point(PRZ) is aligned with Fibonacci retracement 0.382(as we analyzed before). Therefore, if Bitcoin can maintain this pump, it might reach the end at around 29500.
Entry: 29500
TP: 18000~20000
SL: 30500
BTC 1H trading plan1H time frame
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After huge pump from 24900, Bitcoin starts consolidating currently.
From the perspective of long, Bitcoin is creating a potential continuation pattern, such as a triangle structure. Therefore, we can focus on the support strength at 25700, if the support is workable for Bitcoin, trading plan will be triggered as below.
TP: 27385
SL: 25420
BTC makes False-breakout again1h time frame
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This market got a comparable big dump yesterday, then BTC creates a false-breakout at 25000 such like the scenario occurred on June 23rd.
The Price Action increases the possibility about right shoulder pattern, which top is around 28350~29150.
We are still under the downtrend on higher time frame, so avoid putting lots margin on long, better to find opportunity to open short!
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BTC recent target 275654h time frame
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Bitcoin creating the similar structure with previous one, formed from Aug 23rd to Aug 29th.
Getting support again at 25700, according to the symmetrical pattern, Bitcoin has potential to reach 27565 in near future. Therefore, we can set up a plan as below.
TP: 27565
SL: 25090
Bitcoin this bear bottom 15k~18k12h time frame
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Creating a completed top structure like HS can provide more momentum to future dump.
Therefore, Bitcoin has the potential to pump again to make the right shoulder for the big HS.
Top of the potential right structure is around 28500~29500, pay attention to open short if we see this pump in near future.
Also, in order to liquidate as much long positions as possible before 2024 halving, the neckline at 25200 need to be broken, then a huge dump following based on HS structure, its final target 18500~15800, which is also the great and sweet range to buy Bitcoin!
BITCOIN: The 4H Death Cross can deliver 32800.BTCUSD is on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 48.291, MACD = 346.700, ADX = 26.388) which indicates its still consolidating despite today's sharp drop that turned the 4H time-frame red. We are expecting a 4H Death Cross to be formed today or tomorrow, which even though bearish in technical nature, it has been this year, in peculiar fashion, a bullish signal.
This chart shows that the April 24th and February 14th Death Cross patterns delivered a strong rebound of +11.30% and +18.00% respectively. On all fractals, the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross from the oversold region.
Consequently, we are expecting another (at least) +11.30% rebound (TP = 32,800).
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Bitcoin Day Trader's Money ZoneThis post contains a great tip for all bitcoin traders. I use it every day for my bitcoin trades.
On the chart you see two green vertical lines. These are drawn from 8:30 AM EST to 11:30 AM EST everyday New York Time.
I call the time between these lines Money Zone, which is where Whales/Institutions/MMs/Whatever set up their day trades.
The yellow Horizontal line is high/low made withing the zone and the yellow vertical line is the end of session.
The red vertical lines are for Saturday where this is not applicable, even Sunday is not applicable since these are weekends and big money don't trade on these days. But for a fair number of Sunday's, this idea holds true in my back testing.
What you should notice is, the high/low made during the money Zone is never breached till the end of the session marked by the yellow vertical line.
I have back tested and marked all the money zones for the past 2+ weeks, but you may not be able to see them all in the post, so I am sharing a live link of my chart below.
www.tradingview.com
What you must do is use your regular TA to determine levels of interest, create setups in advance and wait for the money zone.
Now by this time you should already have a bias to where the price is likely to go next and wait for a counter move/manipulation in the opposite direction and comfortably take the trade and relax for the rest of the day or at least till the end of the session.
This is applicable for other sessions like ASIA or London as well, but I have personally found this to be more accurate for the New York Session.
This is not Financial Advice.
BTCUSDT--34K or 25K ??Observations:
If we see on the weekly chart the previous demand zone is clearly resisting the price to go up.
on bottom side price has taken the support from previous supply zone/Resistance Acts as support and price moves up.
Weekly analysis...
Daily Analysis::
If we see on daily analysis...the price is in a range from few days...
the previous supply zone is resisting the price to gg down.
If price breaks this zone then only we have a chance of short oppurtunity...
A rally base rally is going to observe if price breaks this range, on upside.
No retest is observed after breaking the trendline as well...if it wants to test this 34000 wants to acts as resistance.