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BTCUSD Bitcoin : A weekly long-term analysis 2.5Bitcoin is pop culture. It made a lot of people rich and a lot of people lost money. Most people lost because of emotional trading. Smart traders made it big. If we look at Bitcoin from a rational technical and fundamental perspective this is what we come up with: *Upside is still very relevant and could be much more significant than any probable downside. *It must be traded with proper risk management and patience, while considering the worst case scenario. Thank you so much for reading/watching! --------------------------------------------------------------------------- I hope my idea was helpful! If so, please like and follow, it would mean the world to me :D I promise to respond to any and all comments/questions , so please don't hesitate to ask me anything. Once again, thank you. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exactus
2
BITCOIN The MFI and 2W MA100 Golden Bottom IndicatorsMy latest Cycle analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again geared towards estimating the bottom of the current (smoothest of all time as I've called) Bear Cycle that we are in. This time I am shifting to the 2W time-frame as a unique indicator combo is displayed. ** The 2W MA50 and MA100 ** The red area indicates the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to when a 2W candle closes below the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time. As the chart shows, this has so far been fairly consistent throughout the Bear Cycles as in 2014 that lasted 378 days (27 2W candles), in 2018 it lasted 336 days (24 2W candles), while on the current Bear Cycle it took again 378 days (27 2w candles) as in 2014. Then I measure the time it took from the 2W MA50 closing to the time the price hit the 2W MA100 (green trend-line). In 2014 that was 28 days (2 2W candles), while in 2018 it was 77 days (6 2W candles). That sums the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to the 2W MA100 touch at 406 days and 413 days respectively. ** The MFI indicator ** Perhaps the most important addition to the mix is the Money Flow Indicator (MFI), which gives a buy signal when it hits the 25.50 level. It has done so on the January 05 2015 and the January 21 2019 candles. Both of those hits, marked a Bear Cycle bottom as the price was at the same time on the 2W MA100. The June 18 2018 MFI 25.50 approach doesn't fall into that category as, not only the indicator wasn't on the 25.50 level but the price hasn't closed below the 2W MA50. ** Conclusion ** This simple analysis shows that the market bottoms when the 2W MFI hits the 25.50 level while the price trades on the 2W MA100. The MFI is currently around 33.40, while the 2W MA100 at 21825. Note that the only time Bitcoin closed below the 2W MA100 was in March 2020 during the COVID global crash and still that was just marginally. As far as timing is concerned, if the current Bear Cycle follows the pattern of 2014, then it should bottom by the May 23 2022 2W candle and if it follows the pattern of 2018 it should bottom by the June 20 2022 2W candle. But what do you think? Do you estimate that a bottom is not far away and if so, will it be on the 2W MA100 or lower? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
17
BITCOIN Comparing Capitulation phases among Bear Cycles.As the current 1W candle on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rising, leaving a big wick below, prompting to capitulation events, it is a good idea to compare the current 2021/22 Bear Cycle to the past ones (2018 and 2014) in an attempt to determine how low the price can go and where a bottom may be formed. ** The importance of the 1W MA200 ** As seen on the charts on the left, every Bear Cycle hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as it formed its bottom. It is important to mention that it is the closing of the 1W candle that matters are in both cases, but more so during the 2014 Bear Cycle, the 1W candle broke below the 1W MA200 but managed to close back above it, leaving a big wick behind it, much like this week's candle. The 1W MA200 is currently at $21850 and rising rapidly with each week. ** The Accumulation phase Fibonacci extension bottom ** Both of the Cycles mentioned above, entered a 4 - 7 month sideways phase following the hit on the 1W MA200. This was in my estimate the Accumulation Phase that helped the market in transitioning from the Bear to the new Bull Cycle. Once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, Bitcoin confirmed the new Bull Cycle. ** The 1W MA50 ** Speaking of the 1W MA50, its role is also key throughout the Bear Cycles. As shown all all charts, when the Bear Cycle starts, the initial drop always makes a direct hit on the 1W MA50 and then the price rebounds for some months. The exception is of course the current Cycle which made a Higher High in November 2021 but still we have to consider this a technical anomaly and take April 2021 as the Cycle's Top. Remember that I always treated the current Bear Cycle as a special case, calling it the 'smoothest of all time'. As the Bear Cycle progresses, the 1W MA50 turns into a Resistance for the latter part of the Cycle, in fact in 2018 and 2022 it provided strong rejections. ** The Fibonacci extension bottom ** Circling back to the initial drop to the 1W MA50, if we measure the Fibonacci extensions on the past Cycles from that point to the Top, we derive very useful conclusions. For the 2014 Bear Cycle, the Bottom was made on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (all 1W candles closed above it), even though as mentioned at the start of the analysis, the 1W candle made a capitulation candle with a wick that reached as low as the 1.786 Fib extension. The 2018 Cycle made a Bottom on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If this is a progression, then each bottom is made one Fibonacci level before. This means that the current Cycle may bottom out on the 1.382 Fib ext, which being roughly at $21950, is around the current level of the 1W MA200. This not only matches perfectly the 1W MA200 criteria that we discussed before, but also is in line with the diminishing returns/ lower volatility theory which suggests that as massive adoption takes place and institutional capital is invested, each Bitcoin Cycle will be less volatile, offering diminishing returns, but at the same time not the brutal corrections of the past. As you see the past two Cycles made a roughly -85% correction. If the current one bottoms on the 1.382 Fib, then it would be a -66% correction. Still big but considerably less than the Bear Cycles of 2018 and 2014. Also notice how the current 1W candle almost reached the 1.236 Fibonacci, always a strong Support during asset corrections. ** The 1W RSI break signal of 30.000 ** Last but not least, keep an eye on the 1W RSI. The 2018 and 2014 Cycles, made a bottom when the 1W RSI broke below the 30.000 barrier, turning oversold. That took place exactly on the market bottom and then the Accumulation Channel started. Right now the 1W RSI is a little below 35.000. Even a flat multi-month consolidation can be enough to get it marginally below 30.000, not to mention another brutal 1W candle to the 1W MA200. In any case, even if the 1W MA200 doesn't get hit this time, keep an eye on the RSI 30.000 barrier as an additional market bottom indicator. Also notice how the 1W RSI is descending in each Cycle, and even in the case of the current one (2021/22), it didn't make a Higher High despite the fact that the market did in November 2021. The Bear Cycle RSI pattern remained intact. ** Conclusion ** So what do we learn from the above? Well the current 1W candle may very well be a capitulation candle similar to that of November 19 2018, which pushed the price to the 1W MA200 three weeks later. A hit on the 1W MA200 (and candle close above) and the 1.382 Fib would be a strong indication of a market bottom but the 1W RSI breaking below 30.000, might be an even more powerful. In any case, as the current 1W candle almost hit the 1.236 Fib and the 1W MA200 is rising rapidly, the 24600 - 21850 is a massive candidate for the Bottom of this Bear Cycle. If the stock market stabilizes soon, we should start witnessing buying from long-term investors and institutions within a month's time. But what do you think? Where do you expect this Cycle to make a bottom? Is the 1W MA200 a could projection or look more for the 1W RSI breaking 30.000? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! BONUS The sharp 2011 Cycle and how it corrected for reference reasons: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
BTCUSD - drastic Hello Traders, From the market of Bitcoin 200 billions wipe out. People loose big money. Why this happening? The answer is very simple. They do not pay attention to technical analysis. If you know them, then is very simple how you control your portfolio in crypto. You have many tools that provide indication of price change direction. Closed you position and case closed. You can open again when price change directions without loosing so much money. This what I am showing you in my analysis, future change direction, trend line (which are incredible tools), channels and many more. As a traders our task is to get as much as possible profit and with small losses. There are the new candlestick formations that showing support and resistance. Candlestick formation are very powerful indicators, but they have be confirm by support/resistance (SR) - true SR. There is very high probability to predict hight of swings (waves). Look on USD Index, this will gives you idea that is going on with cripto. I hope you not one of the traders that lost crypto. Cheers, Jim
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jimmycdn
BITCOIN The Cycles Halving Model times the bottom this SeptemberThis analysis is an update to a model that I've been working on for years and as it shows great accuracy at timing tops and bottoms, I frequently update here on TradingView (something I started on reddit though). Last time I published an analysis on this model was almost 1 year ago (June 11 2021): As you see, Cycle 3 (orange trend-line) did diverge again from Cycle 2 (green trend-line) and priced its top considerably lower, which is in line with the Theory of Diminishing returns. However an update had to be made on this in order to more accurately display and project the (future) tops. Notice that this is a Halving centered approach. Every Cycle is measured before and after its respective Halving. E.g. Cycle 1 (blue trend-line) starts from the start of the data set and ends on Halving 2, i.e. displaying the price action centered around Halving 1. for comparison purposes, I've centered all on Halving 3 (the most recent one). You can find a more detailed explanation on the methodology on the previous issue of this model (chart above). ** Projecting Cycle Tops and Bottoms ** As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fibonacci time extensions progressively starting from the January 2009 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext. Similarly, on this update I have added bottom projections to the mix. They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of September 2022. ** Portraying the Bear Cycles and Rally Phases ** A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts. On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around September 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history (as I've mentioned in numerous analyses already), it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle. ** Conclusion ** One thing is for sure with this model, that the current Cycle as it diverged a year ago from the previous one, it will converge again after the Bear phase ends. This will still be diminishing returns compared to the previous ones, but will translate to a new All Time High. Do you agree with this model and the projections made? Do you have your own estimate for the Cycle bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! BONUS MATERIAL Two examples of previous applications of the Halving centered approach and the Convergence - Divergence modelling: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18
BITCOIN entered the 1D oversold zone for the 3rd time in 1 year.Last time Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke the 30.000 oversold barrier on the 1D time-frame, was on January 21 2022 and May 19 2021. Practically today marked the third time in the last 12 months that this event took place. During both of those capitulation candle sequences, Bitcoin formed a Support and turned sideways for around 2-3 months. During this process, it hit certain trend-lines. First, it took 10 and 15 days respectively for those events to hit the basis (red trend-line) of the Bollinger Bands (green pattern) and from that point another 56 and 65 days respectively to hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Given the max scenario in each case, Bitcoin could reach the Basis line of BB by May 24 and then the 1D MA200 by July 28. In addition, we are just above the Support Zone formed of the May 19 2021 (30100) and June 22 2021 (28600) lows. There is also a Lower Lows trend-line involved with a max extension around 27000. Do those indicate a bottom? And if so, will Bitcoin enter a 2-3 month consolidation on its way to the 1D MA200 yet again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
47
BITCOIN and stocks during rate hikes. Is a bottom being formed?On this unique analysis, I am cross-examining the behavioral pattern of Bitcoin (BTCUSD / candles) as compared to the stock market (S&P500 / blue trend-line) during the last time that the Fed starting raising the interest rates (green trend-line). ** Late 2015 pattern. The start of the previous rate hike phase ** The pattern from this sample is quite clear. Last time the rate hike started (December 2015), the stock market was already on a strong correction that bottomed 1 month later. At the same time, Bitcoin was volatile but didn't correct that much and instead started a new Bull Cycle. Notice that the stock market peaked and started its correction 5-6 months before the first rate hike. Obviously the bearish news that dominated the market at the time was China's slowdown (August 2015) and before that a potential Grexit but keep in mind that a potential rate hike was already being discussed before implemented and the markets tend to price in the news long before the event takes place. ** 2022 pattern. The start of a new rate hike phase ** Similarly coming to today, this week's aggressive 0.50% rate hike, the strongest since 2000, catches the stock market already in an ongoing correction. Notice that as in 2015, the stock market peaked and started to fall 5-6 months before this week's aggressive hike. As in 2015, this could have very much been related to the stocks pricing the rate hike months ahead of the actual event. At the same time, Bitcoin has had a low point in January 2022 (and an even lower (bottom) in July 2021), being volatile these past 5 months but with the strong correction already behind it from November 2021 to January 2022. Can all these be a coincidence? Or do all three form again the same pattern as in late 2015/ early 2016? As we mentioned numerous times from our channel here, Bitcoin's price action since the April 2021 High can be seen as a new form of Bear Cycle, much like the one in 2014/15 that preceded the rate hike. The current volatile range (circle on the chart) looks a lot like the one in November 2015 - January 2016, which kick-started the parabolic rally of 2016/17. Does all this mean that the stock market is about to price a bottom on this 5 month correction and Bitcoin to start a new Bull Cycle as the Fed moves into aggressive rate hiking (as per their announced plan) in an attempt to win the battle against a raging inflation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BTCUSD Flash | What is happening?Price is currently sitting on both a bullish trendline and a strong demand zone that has held price "supported" since February 2022. Are we going to witness a breakdown or trend continuation in the next couple of days? What do you think? Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by darcsherry
BITCOIN Short-term analysis on the Falling WedgeBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within Falling Wedge pattern on the short-term ever since April 11. The pattern is close to exhaustion point as the upper (Lower Highs) and lower (Lower Lows) trend-lines are getting too narrow. The direction to which the price breaks, should determine the trend of the next 2 weeks. The MA periods on the 4H time-frame play a critical part to this as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) rejected the price on April 21, while the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has done so on Apr 26 and 28. Right now the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the 4H MA100, which is the first Resistance and happens to be almost exactly on the Falling Wedge's Lower Highs (top) trend-line. A candle close above it, should be enough to extend the rise to the 4H MA200 even intra day but it is the potential break above the 4H MA200 that should really have our attention. In that case we may most likely see a strong rebound to the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which caused the rejection on March 28 and practically started this correction, that could happen converge on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that while the price action was on Lower Lows (of the Falling Wedge naturally), the 4H RSI has been rising on Higher Lows, posting therefore a Bullish Divergence. That gives more probabilities to a break-out to the upside. If the Wedge breaks to the downside though, the next level of Support to look for should be the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at around 34900. So what do you think? Do you expect the Falling Wedge to break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
37
BITCOIN This Falling Wedge decides the trend.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the March 28 High, always within the wider outlook of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is right below as the long-term Support, and hasn't been that close since the COVID crash months. A similar Falling Wedge was formed when the price was bottoming on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The OBV indicator between the two patterns are fairly similar. The Falling Wedge will most likely determine the trend of the next months, perhaps even for the rest of the year. A break upwards will most likely be a bullish signal for a price jump towards 55-60k similar to that of August 2021. On a different occasion, with break downwards, we need to wait for a weekly (1W) candle closing. Below the 1W MA100, opens the way for the low 30s even the higher 20s levels. Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will the Falling Wedge break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN accumulation to June, then rally. 5 year cheat-sheet.Today I am presenting to you a hidden phase cheat-sheet on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that I've been working on this week. The time-frame is the 1W (weekly). As you see, since the 2017 rally, Bitcoin has gone through three Phases of Rally - Accumulation - Bear. The astonishing fact is that time-wise all have been symmetrical to each other: * The Bear Phase lasts 44 weeks (308 days) while the Accumulation Phase lasts 15 weeks (105 days). Every time the Accumulation ends, the Rally Phase starts. * Approximately, we can estimate the peaks of the Rallies and end of the Bear Phases using the Fibonacci Time Extensions. Starting measuring from the Peak of the first Rally (0.0 Fib) and the end of the first Bear (1.0 Fib), we can see on the 1.5 Fib extension, the Rally roughly peaked (was just 2 weeks after the extension). The end of the Bear Phase was +1.0 Fib after, i.e. the 2.5 Fib extension. The peak of the next Rally was roughly on the 3.25 Fib ext and +1.0 Fib after was the end of the third Bear Phase. Based on this model, we have been within the third Accumulation Phase since the February 21 1W candle. Assuming that symmetry continues to hold, this phase should last again 15 weeks, which times its end on the June 06 1W candle. Then the fourth Rally Phase should start and it would be a good idea to sell around the 5.0 Fibonacci Time Extension, even though the model's progression suggests it can go as long as the 5.25 extension. Note that the RSI indicator on the 2W time-frame (below the chart price action), can offer an additional estimate with regards to when to have a confirmed buy. That will be when the RSI breaks above the MA line (yellow) again (for the 2nd time in the Cycle). Keep in mind that in Phase 2 that took place while the price was still within the Bear Phase, as the March 2020 COVID sell-off distorted the data short-term. That was a Black Swan event that is very unlikely to take place again at least that soon. Still, it gave a very accurate buy signal. So what do you think about this 5 year old model? Does it offer enough evidence to you that the market is accumulating, and is on the best buy levels before an upcoming Rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
63
BITCOIN correlation with stock market volatility and Halvings.As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the cryptoworld struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. The current analysis depicts exactly that notion in terms of Growth and Volatility while incorporating a key parameter of BTC, the Halvings. ** What is a Halving? ** First of all, in case you are a newcomer in the cryptospace, what is a Halving? It is the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain and is when the payout for mining a new block is halved. This induces inflation in the price, reducing the number of BTC in circulation, thus increasing demand. It happens after every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years). Because of increased demand, Halvings historically tend to create aggressive price rallies after the event. ** Stock market Growth and Volatility phases ** This chart is on the 1W time-frame and as mentioned displays Bitcoin (orange trend-line) against the stock market in the form of the S&P500 index (blue trend-line). The stock market since 2011 has gone through clear phases of Growth (green zone) and Volatility (blue zone). Out of the past three Bitcoin Cycles, two of them make almost exact matches: BTC's Bear Cycles with Stocks' Volatility Phases and BTC Bull Cycles/ Rally Phases with Stocks' Growth Phases. Slight exception was 2013/14, where BTC peaked in November 2013 but the stock market Growth Phase continued for another year. By the time the stock market volatility started, BTC had already made the bottom of its Bear Cycle. We may have a similar situation with the current BTC Cycle as well. Assuming that BTC's peak was in April 2021 and not November 2021 (slightly higher high), then as in 2013/14, the stock market Growth extended almost 1 year after BTC's peak. If that's the case and the correlation continues to hold, then BTC's bottom was priced early this year as the stock market volatility has started since the start of 2022. Another interesting element is that the middle of the Stock market volatility phase has always been very close to BTC's Bear Cycle bottom level. Technically, that appears the most optimal level overall historically to buy with confidence for the long-term. If the current Stock volatility phase lasts 84 weeks as in 2015, then its middle should be around October 2022. If however the volatility phase lasts as long as 2018/2019 (107 weeks), then its middle should be around January 2023. Note that a Volatility phase that long would match almost perfectly with the next Halving of March 2024, which as mentioned at the start of the analysis, kick-starts BTC's Parabolic Rally. Do you think this is a good correlation to time a solid buy entry on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
31