Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN The Fear & Greed Index prompts to an immediate rally!On this chart, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is shown on the 1W time-frame using the Fear & Greed Indicator (F&GI). A month ago it broke above 50, which is the neutral level between Fear and Greed. Since then it has stabilized sideways around 55 as the market is split with some being greedy for further rise while others waiting for a good pull-back to enter.
Historically however, every time the F&GI broke above 50, the Cycle bottom was in and BTC was at the beginning of an aggressive rally. In both of the previous 2 Cycles, the immediate target before a mid-Cycle pull-back was the 0.786 Fibonacci (green flag). This level on the current Cycle is at $50000!
Do you think this will be next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
BITCOIN Three Ph-Model started a new mega Cycle. $280k possible?This is a very radical approach to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycle Theory as it expands on the notion that BTC has so far had only two (mega) Cycles instead of the traditional view of four (smaller ones), which is an idea we have analyzed quite a few times in the past. Radical but as the analysis shows not unrealistic, since each Cycle shares common parameters with the other one that haven't been broken.
** The Pivot line and the Three Phases **
As this 1W chart shows, each Cycle has a Pivot trend-line, which is the essence of the model as it is the piece that is holding together the three different Phases. Those (mega) Cycles start with the Take-off phase (blue Triangle), a rally which is the most aggressive part of the Cycle. The Pivot line is the Support during the Take-off Phase.
Then with the 1W RSI curving, it transitions to the Expansion phase (green Arc), which is also rally but less aggressive that eventually forms the top of the Cycle. The Pivot line is the Resistance during the Expansion phase.
The third and final phase starts after the Cycle top, the Correction phase (red Channel Down), which is the pull-back of those tow rally phases that finds Support on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Towards the end of Correction phase, the 1W RSI almost flattens as it turns sideways at the lowest level of this three-phase Cycle. This is the Accumulation period where investors start buying Bitcoin again on those low prices.
** Fibonacci levels **
Apart from the horizontal Fibonacci levels, the most important of which is the 0.236 Fib that offers Support on the Correction phase, we have incorporated the Time Fibs that assist at providing a better perspective as to which part of the Cycle we could approximately be at. As you see, between Fib 0.5 - 0.618, the Expansion phase's first rally starts and after Fib 0.786 the final rally of the Expansion phase takes place.
Based on this model, Bitcoin is on Level Zero (circle) which is the starting point of the Take-off phase, meaning that we are starting the Third ever Mega Cycle.
As for what the top of this new Take-off phase might be? The December 2017 top of that Take-off phase was marginally above the -0.236 Fibonacci extension of the Cycle before it. The new -0.236 Fib is around $280000.
Do you agree? What are your thoughts on that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD ( High Probability BUY Setup SOON )* Here we can see clearly from our analysis if BTCUSD don't break our support trend line, we're going to be looking for BUY Setups in coming days & weeks,
* If we see a down trend & it breaks our support trend line, we believe it's going to be forming Inverse Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern ( VvV ) before the big BULL run for BTCUSD this Summer,
* As for us we won't be looking to SELL BTCUSD this coming days or weeks, instead we'll be waiting for the BULL run on our favourite Crypto Currency to trade,
* We're using H4 time frame for a clearer view of our analysis, hence we can't predict the duration of our analysis to occur on the charts,
* Keep a close eye on Crypto Currency King,
* Happy pip hunting traders,
* FX KILLA.
BTCUSD 5mins scalping long entryHello traders,
This is my second post today. Now we will look at COINBASE:BTCUSD . After waiting for a long time today, I finally missed the 5mins shorting opportunity as I was away from the system. But it met my profit target as I expected. But even if that opportunity is gone, now there is another opportunity to take a long entry from 24079.50 to 24291.00 . If this entry is suitable for you then analyze and get down to the long trade.
Trade according to your qualifications
Thanks & Regards,
Alpha Trading Station
Disclaimer: This view is for educational purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a trading/investing advice. We may or may not have position in the stocks mentioned here. Please consult your financial advisor before investing. Because Price is the "King of Market".
BTC Bitcoin New Week MovePair : BTC ( Bitcoin )
Description :
Break of Structure and Making its Retracement till its Daily Resistance Level
Divergence
Completed " 123 " Impulsive Wave and making Correction for the " 4th " Impulsive Wave
Impulse Correction Impulse
It can Reject from the Current Level or it can Go till the Daily S / R Level
BITCOIN Amazing Channel and Time Fibonacci reveals the next Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again attracting a lot of interest as it recovered the recent pull-back and even made a new weekly high. Those who follow us over the years know that through fractal and Cycle comparisons we have managed to identify key runs before they happen.
** Hitting the 1W 50 for the first time in 11 months **
Now, as BTC just hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting a closing above it for the first time since late March 2022, the new Bull Cycle is starting on a V-shaped recovery. Using the Fibonacci Channel levels and the Fibonacci Time extensions, we have identified a unique Cycle combination that can show where this Cycle's Top could be and it has never failed in Bitcoin's history.
** Fibonacci Channel **
By applying the Fibonacci Channel from the bottom of the 2011 (November) Bear Cycle to the tops of the 2013 (December) and 2017 (December) Bull Cycles, we see that the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle was on the 0.618 Fibonacci (green circle). The bottom of the next 2018 Bear Cycle was on the 0.5 Fibonacci (blue circle).
We get the exact same results if we apply the Fibonacci Channel on the bottom of the 2015 (August) Bear Cycle to the tops of the 2017 (December) and 2021 (November) Bull Cycles. 2020 bottom near the 0.618 Fibonacci (green circle) and bottom of the next 2022 Bear Cycle near the 0.5 Fibonacci (blue circle).
** The Time Fibonacci extensions and Halvings **
If we apply the Time Fibonacci approach on the first two Halvings (1 & 2) we wee that the December Top of the 2017 Bull Cycle was on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We get the exact same result if we apply this metric on Halvings 2 & 3. The November 2021 Bull Cycle Top was on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Both Tops formed within 510 - 530 days from their last Halving.
** Where can the new Top be? **
If we apply the same methodology on the February 2019 bottom and November 2021 top, we see that consistent with the previous Fibonacci Cycles, the November 2021 bottom took place on the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the pattern is completed the same way as the previous two, then the Top of the Bull Cycle that has just started should be at the top of the Channel (Fib 0.0) around the 1.382 Time Fibonacci extension from the Halvings. This gives a rough estimate of $120000 byAugust 2025!
Do you agree with the results that this approach that has never failed in history, gives? If not what is your expected top for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Gaussian Channel, last barrier before the new rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been pulling back since the start of the month as it came close to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but as it failed to break it, it got rejected. This is putting a pause to the January rally and on the 1W time-frame a very interesting pattern is emerging.
Based on the Gaussian Channel, this is a recurring pattern, a formation which combined with the Fibonacci retracement levels, has been seen as the start of both previous Bull Cycles (2015 and 2019).
** Triangle into Cup recovery and the importance of the 0.382 Fibonacci **
First of all, as you see, all Bear Cycles have started with a Triangle pattern and after the Support of the first Bear Low broke, they collapsed aggressively. As the Bear Cycle bottomed, the collapse started to reverse within a Cup pattern (U-shaped recovery). A break and 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50, confirmed the extension of the initial bottom rally into the new rally of the Bull Cycle. Notice how the 0.382 Fibonacci level was the 'Support of the first Bear Low' we talked above and once it broke caused a strong spike and later served as a Support itself.
** The Gaussian Channel and the LMACD **
This time the Gaussian Channel's bottom is exactly on the 1W MA50 with the 0.382 Fib not that far above them. As a result a break into the Gaussian Channel this time will result into all major Resistances breaking almost at once. Also it is very interesting to look at the 1W LMACD and how every time BTC tested the 1W MA50, it was on the 0.00 level. Every time it closed above the 1W MA50, the LMACD broke above the 0.00 as well.
** Where to buy now? **
It is worth noting that after the July 2015 1W MA50 rejection, the price fully filled the gap of the January 2015 Bear Bottom. But that was entirely due to the Bitfinex hack on August 17 2015. Had it not been for this, the pull-back would have been contained on the 0.236 Fib or at the very worst, the 0.118 Fib (green level). In April 2019 for example, during that 1W MA50 rejection, the price was supported by the 0.236 Fib. For comparison purposes, the current 0.118 Fib is at $18800. See the chart below, we have made the comparison of the FTX and Bitfinex crashes back in November 14 when the market was at its highest Fear level and nobody expected a rebound. So far it has been playing out very accurately:
It is easy to understand that we are near a critical Resistance cluster, which if broken will start the next rally phase and Bitcoin won't look back.
Are you waiting for max pain at $18.8k to get in or you have bought already? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 30m Short sellingHello guys,
This is a very urgent trade. What are we going to see today is Bitcoin. COINBASE:BTCUSD is coming very fast to continue its resistance level . So speed is very important in this. This is an opportunity to short sell .
Trade safe!
Thanks & Regards,
Alpha Trading Station
BITCOIN The Pitchfork approach that reveals the Bull Run!Why don't we see the Pitchfork tool applied to Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? We show on today's analysis that this often very overlooked technical tool has been particularly spot on at identifying BTC's Bull Runs.
It is a simple application and we will keep the commentary that way. As you see on this 1W time-frame, we have applied the Pitchfork from Bitcoin's first Low to the 2014/15 Bear Cycle. As you see the Fibs drawn, provide an excellent framework for the majority of the Bull Cycle's trajectory:
* The 2015-2017 Bull Run was almost entirely within the 0.5 (dashed blue trend-line) and 1.0 (solid blue) Fibs, until it broke in the final month of the Bull Cycle to peak on the FibMA Multiple 7.
* The 2019-2021 Bull Run started off more aggressively as it was initially hyped by the Libra news but later corrected within the 1.5 (dashed black) and 2.0 (solid black) Fibs.
* The new Bull Run has started after the November (FTX crash) bottom and is now within the 2.5 (dashed orange) and 3.0 (solid orange) Fibs. This should technically by the new Channel Up for the new Bull Run.
It appears that each Bull Run is a whole 1.0 Fib level lower than the previous one. This is consistent with Bitcoin's Theory of Diminishing returns over time.
Also all bottoms hit or came extremely close to the 1W MA350 (bold green line).
We can estimate in addition a rough 121 week (847 day) time range from the bottom of the Cycle to the Top of the top of the next one. This gives us a projection for the next Cycle Peak on March 2025.
As for what price the actual Top can hit? Moderate scenario the Multiple 5 (orange) and aggressive scenario the Multiple 7 (red).
Do you agree with the conclusions of this Pitchfork approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Death Cross targeting the 1D MA50 based on the DXYBitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to form a Death Cross pattern on the 4H time-frame, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) thus making short-term selling pressure stronger than buying. The pattern as you see is a Channel Down ever since the February 02 High and the Support Zone is 20700 - 20420. This is where the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) is headed to, which is Bitcoin's long-term Support during uptrends.
At the moment as you see the 4H MA200 is acting as the Resistance. But it is the developments on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the chart on the right, that is spearheading this move on BTC. It just formed a 4H Golden Cross (the opposite of the Death Cross = bullish) and as shown, the price is breaking above the Channel Down that has been trading in since the November 21 High. A break above the 103.980 Resistance (1), most likely targets Resistance 2 (105.650). The 1D RSI being on Higher Highs while the price was on Lower Highs (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) is evidence that a break-out is about to take place.
In conclusion, a direct hit of BTC within the 20700 - 20420 Support Zone and more importantly on the 1D MA50, would be the most optimal medium-term buy entry, especially if this is coupled with the 1D RSI turning oversold (30.000 level).
Would that be a good enough level for you to buy for the next wave upwards? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Alignment of Cycles is the Ultimate Cheatsheet!We have done similar studies before, aligning past Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles to get a projection of the current one. We have used Halvings, Peaks, Bottoms etc but this is the first time that we don't just use everything into one mega analysis, but also incorporate the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels that show not only the Buy Zones put also the peak projection, making this study the Ultimate Cheatsheet!
** Cycles Tops and Bottoms **
The chart is pretty much self-explanatory. The time-frame on the 1W (weekly) and the starting point of all Cycles (we use the past 3, the first one is too aggressive to be relative for conclusion on this study), is their respective Tops/ Peaks. We didn't distort any Cycle, all are just they way given by the Bars Pattern on their log scale. The orange trend-line represents Cycle 2022/23 (the current one), the black trend-line represents Cycle 2018/21 and the blue trend-line represents Cycle 2014/17.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence and the Buy Zones **
As you see, their alignment during their Bear Phase of their Cycles is remarkably tight, as the don't diverge by as much as one would expect. With the use of the Fibonacci levels, taking as Fib 0.0 the bottom of the 2018/21 Cycle (Black), we can designate two Buy Zones: The first one within Fib 0.382 - 0.236 and the Ultimate within Fib 0.236 - 0.0. As you see the current Cycle made a bottom and bounced just over the Ultimate Buy Zone.
What's really interesting, is that the 2014/17 (Blue) and 2018/21 (Black) Cycles always converged after a divergence, which simply indicates the standard nature of the course of each Bull Cycle. We have to mention at this stage that the big divergencies of the 2018/21 Cycle was first on the April - June 2019 rally due to Facebook's Libra enthusiasm/ speculation and second September - March 2020 due to the massive money printing and rescue packages to stimulate the economy from the COVID lockdowns.
** The amazing Halving Symmetry **
We have also incorporated the Halvings and as you see the symmetry is astonishing as all there are within a 2 month range. Halving 4, which is the next one is in the middle (May 2024), Halving 3 is on the left (May 2020) while Halving 2 is on the right (July 2016). This is just another demonstration of Cycle stability. Keep in mind that the Halving events are major cyclical events for Bitcoin as they cause a Supply Shock, thus stimulating the Demand. It is no coincidence that the Phase of the Parabolic Rallies has always started after the Halving.
** Where will this Cycle Peak? **
As for the projected peak, since every Cycle offers diminishing returns, the Peak is (or should be) lower each time. The 2014/17 Cycle (Blue) peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and the 2018/21 (Black) peaked on the 1.618 Fib. The next range in line is the 1.382 - 1.236 Fib Zone, which is approximately within $100k - $132k. A projected path (orange dotted line) to this Target Zone doesn't again diverge much from the other Cycles.
We have to also account for outside fundamentals/ news, moving the projected trend higher if news like those in 2019 (Libra) or 2020 (stimulus) inject a new wave of enthusiasm into the market. For that reason, we have added a projected path to an extremely positive scenario (see chart below) than trends in the middle of the Black and Blue Cycles and shows a Peak above Fib 1.618, roughly above $250k. Unrealistic or not, it is a projection taken from this specific model.
Do you think this is the Ultimate Cheatsheet for Bitcoin or not? Feel free to let us know why in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is having a consolidation similar to December.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and fear seems to be returning to the market for no particular reason. The price is above both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and more importantly the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is the long-term Support during bull runs.
The STOCH RSI on the 1D time-frame made a Bullish Cross inside its oversold Support Zone and the last time we had a similar occurence was on December 20. That was again with the price below the 4H MA50. It consolidated until December 30 after which Higher Highs/ Higher Lows started, until the Parabolic Rise of January.
The Bars Pattern of December - early January fits very well the price action from January 20 until today. In fact it matches perfectly a projected contact with the 1D MA50 (which as mentioned is the long-term Support) and timing a January-like rally ideally.
A +30% rally from yesterday's low gives a medium-term target of $29000. Would you agree?
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🚀 Short BTC/USD Trade Opportunity at $22620 💰Description: 💱 The cryptocurrency market can be highly volatile, and short trading can be a way to take advantage of potential price decreases. In this scenario, I'm proposing a 🔽 short trade in BTC/USD, with a selling price of $22620 and a take profit level of $21100. The stop loss level is set at $23500 to limit potential losses. Please keep in mind that 🔙 past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and it's important to have a solid 💼 risk management strategy in place when trading cryptocurrencies.
Hashtags:
#BTCUSD 💰
#ShortTrade 🔽
#CryptoTrading 💱
#RiskManagement 💼
BITCOIN 1W MA50 and 1D RSI aligned with previous Bull Cycles!This is the 3rd week in a row that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) comes that close but struggles to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically speaking that alone is a major Resistance. But if you check at the same time the start of all previous Bull Cycles, you will see that it was the 'Resistance-to-beat' during all.
More specifically during every new Bull Cycle, every time the price rebounded towards the 1W MA50 after a market bottom, it struggled there for a few weeks before it broke convincingly above it (exc Jan 2012 marginal break but still corrected for a few weeks before rising).
What's more interesting is that this short-term weekly correction was achieved after an already massively overbought 1D RSI got rejected at (or near) the 88.00 'First Rally Resistance'. As you see this is what happened on all new Bull Cycle starts: April 01 2019, June 29 2015 and December 26 2011. And it is what just happened now.
The target after the 1W MA50 break-out has been the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which we call 'Price equilibrium' and is sitting at $32650. Notice how each Cycle regardless of length or price range, tends to follow a similar wave structure. Will the 1D RSI turning 55.00 be a good enough level for you to buy as in 2019 or waiting for 37.00 as in the first two Cycles?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC - Bullish Order BlockBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
4Hour time frame
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BTC is forming a divergence structure(DS) as we mentioned before.
DS is a bearish pattern, which means BTC is suffering from short-term resistance.
However, we're still in a healthy bullish run currently.
So we can buy it if BO DS and retest 21000~21300.
BITCOIN 1W Supertrend is bullish and not looking back!We have used the Supertrend indicator on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) extensively, especially on lower time-frames with great accuracy. This time we take a look on the 1W chart where the Supertrend has been green since the second trading week of January. Throughout BTC's history every time the Supertrend turned green after such an RSI rebound, the bottom of the Bear Cycle was formed.
The strength on such Supertrend rallies is normally so strong that the price typically rarely breaks or more importantly closes below the supporting line (floor). Bright exception has been of course the build up to the 2022 COVID crash (which as mentioned countless times is a 1 in 100 years event, thus an irregularity).
This 'floor' of the Supertrend has now been lifted to $17240, which was unthinkable in e.g. December as it was a Resistance. Traditionally we don't see immediately pull-backs to the floor on the first Bull Cycle rally. Instead, when the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC has always reached the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) before a major Bull Cycle pull-back.
The 1W MA100 is currently at 36150 (and falling). So with the 1W MA100 around 36k and the Supertrend's floor at 17.2k and rising, does that look like a solid Risk/ Reward ration trade for you or not?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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