BITCOIN - why I expect (120K -130K) is a peak of this cycle
My wish is to reach $200k but I have a reason and I would like to share it with you.
The reason is related to historical and time assumptions and it is the core of the markets (logarithmic movement).
🔸Here are some statistics:
- Bitcoin's decline rate in 2014-2015 was 87%
- The decline rate in 2017-2018 was 84% (3% small difference).
- The decline rate in 2021-2022 was 77% (difference 7%)
🔸 - Why did 2022 record a lower rate? Because of time
Yes, because it rose to a close to the top with a slight difference early and had a full year until the end of the cycle, so it reached 64,000, then fell 55% and returned to rise 140% and formed a double top from this movement and ended its cycle on time in November 2022, as the oscillation process took 7 months on two sub-waves before the end of the cycle, so achieving the top before its time is important to settle the rest of the calculations.
But the two cycles 2014-2017 because the rate of rise was flexible and had space, it achieved large ascending rates and from there it fell directly without oscillation.
And we said with the passage of time and the stability of the cycle every 4 years and also we have decreasing peaks and bottoms, it will definitely work on oscillation when it achieves the main peak until the cycle ends.
🔸 Notice in blue the formation of the peaks and how they were different in 2021-2022 on M shape and indicator of exploiting the time period until the end of the cycle, which is expected to happen in this cycle for a long oscillation and the formation of more than one peak until the time ends and it falls.
🔸Ok now it has a very long time until the end of the current cycle which will end in November - December 2025 we are talking here about a whole year what will it do?
From this point of view everyone has seen the majority's expectations that it will rise to astronomical numbers 500k and a 1M we all hope for that but the reality is different.
So I currently expect 120,000 - 130,000 a major peak in which I guarantee myself not to enter into high assumptions and risks.
But be careful here an important condition must be met which is the basic sign of the end of the rise of Bitcoin ..
🔸 What is it? (The explosion of ALTS to the point of hysteria and here we say that the peak has been achieved).
This means that the violation of expectations and their conformity lies not in the rise of alternative currencies but in a crazy explosion regardless of whether the price of Bitcoin is higher or lower than my expectations.
🔸Okay, is there any objection to Bitcoin going to 200k and 300k?
Of course the answer is no in a restricted way, meaning that Bitcoin rises at a sharp angle like 2014-2017 and takes advantage of the entire cycle time, so it will naturally achieve those numbers, but it conflicts with the behavior of the logarithmic movement between price and time.
🔸Final point:
The percentage of the decline in the next cycle will be less based on past data. If we assume that the percentage will be between 65% and 60%, and considering that the main bottom will be between 58,000 and 48,000, Bitcoin's rise may extend to $150,000 as a maximum, but as I said, it is governed by the condition of the explosion of altcoins, as they are the ones who will determine the credibility of all those numbers and percentages.
BEST Regards Ceciliones🎯
