Btcsignals
BITCOIN about to form a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross. The big technical development of this week should be the emerging MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame (the 1st in more than 1 month). Such crosses are typically formations that precede a strong move on Bitcoin and since it has been trading within a Triangle (Lower Highs and Higher Lows) since the May 19 bottom, it is very likely that this formation will break the pattern. But which way will it break to?
To put this into a better context, I have applied the Pitchfork tool starting from the 65k High. As you see all of its downside levels have been hit (exception the 2.0 level) both as Supports and Resistances. The levels that haven't been tested to the upside are 1.0 and 1.5 (naturally 2.0 too but that is pending on the lower levels too). Right now the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) sits on the 1.0 level. Is this a sign that the 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross will force the price to the upside and attempt contact with the 4H MA200? Or we'll continue south and test the lower extensions again (1.0 and 1.5)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN The alts dominance shows this may not be the top for BTCOn this study I am crossing Bitcoin with the Dominance of the Alt Coins as it shows something that may interest you.
This past month there is only one question in crypto investors' minds: has Bitcoin already made a top for the current Cycle? The regression of BTC agains the Alts shows that the pattern they are printing now is similar to July 10, 2017. During that time, BTC dropped -40% along, while the Alts that were having their 2nd Parabolic Phase dropped even more dramatically. While BTC recovered almost instantly, the drop formed a Support for the Alts Dominance that attracted the price up until BTC's new Cycle Top. As you see on the chart, the Alts have had two bullish phases within the greater Bull Cycle and the duration from the 1st High to the 2nd was a little over 300 days. On the current Cycle that time range is a little below 300 days.
I know that, as most say lately, "this time is different" but that if it is not and this comparison shows the way? What do you think, does this study accurately depicts the place on the trend that BTC is currently at or the Top is already in?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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January 10th 2022 Cycle Top 150-190kI was going to wait till after today to publish this but what I found cannot wait. If today's May 31st Fib Time zone confirms then we can go ahead and look at the next fib date in line which is January 10th 2022 and what I just realized is for the first time I get an overlap of Fib time dates.
First Fib Time Zones dates (Orange lines )
So the First Fib time zone date is one on a macro scale of bitcoin starting November 2011 , I picked this start point because it's the start of the Genesis line(ibb.co) and the bottom of the log growth. The second point would be the top of 2013 cycle , once we place these two points we get the rest of the dates :
0 - 14th November 2011
1 - 25th November 2013
2 - 07th December 2015
3 - 18th December 2017
5 - 10th January 2022
So you can see that Fib Date 2 and 3 were pretty important , not so much 2 but date 3 called the top of the 2017 run.
Second Fib Time dates (White Lines)
These Fib time zone dates are on a micro scale. I have posted about these Fib Time zone dates for weeks in previous TAs which I link down below. If we do see a shift in momentum today then these Fib time zone dates are valid and the next shift in momentum would be January 10th 2022!
So what we have is a overlap, a overlap of a micro and macro scale this is something that I have never come across , these are the Fib time zone dates :
0 - 09 March 2020 (Covid crash)
1 - 19 October 2021
2 - 31 May 2021
3 - 10 January 2022
First point would be the bottom of the covid crash and second point would be 19th October 2021 , I picked this date because there was a massive momentum shift that date , I believe the parabolic run started on this date.
The Top
So if we hit the top of the log growth band on that date bitcoin would be 150k if we overshoot to the Genesis line (Red Line) that would put Bitcoin at 190k. I have gone over the idea that Bitcoin will not break this line and it will act as resistance like it did in June 2019 at 14k.
Bitcoin will most likely overshoot this low growth band like it did the last two tops , how much will it overshoot I don't know but the genesis line comes in at 190k, So a possible scenario would be that bitcoin tops at around 170k and closes that week at 150k.
I will include below under related ideas all TAs that are linked with this conclusion. There is no other way I can put it. This is the top.
Who’s Shorting? :)
BITCOIN Is this a Bear Cycle or just a mid-Bull correction?That is the question on everyone's mind right now following Bitcoin's -50% crash from April's $65000 top. To get a better understanding I've used the 1D time-frame, comparing the current sequence to the 2019 and 2013 mid-Bull corrections and the Bear Cycles of 2018, 2014 and 2011.
* The common characteristic on mid-Bull corrections is that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was hit after a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross got formed.
* On the other hand, with the exception of 2013, when Bull Cycles ended, the 1D MA200 was hit before a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross.
* The initial bottom (red arrow) on all was made on the symmetrical low of the last pull-back before the top (red zones on all charts).
* Following the initial bottom and after the 1D MA200 broke, all fractals hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the first rebound.
Do you think the current sequence has more in common with Bear Cycles or mid-Bull corrections? Will we see a rebound to the 1D MA50 either way? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
p.s. As far as the 2019 mid-Bull correction is concerned, I don't count the March 2020 crash as a continuation to the bottom due to that being an extraordinary fundamental event (pandemics happen once every 100 years).
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Bitcoin : Head & Shoulders In PlayHello traders, hope you all doing well in this unreliable market. The game is getting harder to predict, play safe and follow your plan.
So as you can see we are forming an H&S pattern in a shorter time frame, it's a bearish pattern. We are currently below the H&S neckline and that's not a good indication for at least short-term price movement. If we see a retest of neckline and price fall exactly from that, in that case, it will be confirmation of pattern in action. However, if we see the closing above the neckline, it will invalid H&S.
hope you like this quick update and do follow for more:)
Dashmy dash chart shows 1 impulsive moved followed by an ABC triangle correction which was a bull market correction that preceded the next impulsive move up. I feel that the last move was a bearish impulsive move down. Now I am waiting for some more clues to see how things develop. I stay long and bullish even though the current PA looks a bit unclear.
BITCOIN formed an Inverse H&S. Is this a reversal sign?Even though the title focuses on the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern that has been formed, I will make this a multi time-frame analysis as there are various important developments we need to look into and consider for Bitcoin's trend.
** Inverse Head & Shoulders on 4H **
The main chart is on the 4H time-frame where the Inverse Head & Shoulders (IH&S) is most clear. This formation is typically a bullish reversal pattern, the opposite of a Head & Shoulders. In doing so, the price broke above the 2-week Lower Highs zone (red) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently being tested as a Support.
** Golden Cross on 1H **
Can the Right Shoulder break and push the price upwards? A thorough examination on the 1H time-frame (see chart below) shows that BTC just formed a Golden Cross (1H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line)). This is technically a bullish sign and as you can see the last three 1H Golden Crosses all delivered a Higher High.
** Double Bottom on 1D but MA200 resisting **
The 1D time-frame gives a long-term picture (see chart below). If last week's formation is a Double Bottom, it gives more value to the fact that the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) held and continues to support. At the same time though the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) continues to exercise Resistance pressure as BTCUSD hasn't closed a 1D candle above it for 6 straight days. However, the RSI is on Higher Highs (Bullish Divergence) an indicator that probably the selling pressure is getting weaker, while the LMACD prepares a Bullish Cross.
What do you think will happen next? Will the 1H Golden Cross break the IH&S upwards or will the Double Bottom break and test the critical 1W MA50 level? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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May 31st Decision Time (BITCOIN)We are coming up to the most important week of the bullrun for bitcoin , do we hold the 0.618 (fib Fan) Losing this fib level would change all Macro projections for this bullrun. May 31st is the day that could see a shift in momentum.
May 31st is a Monday, I expect a big move to start happening early hours of Monday before the trading day even starts for most. If these Fib time zones turn out to be accurate pivot points in bitcoin the next one would be January 10th 2022, the top of the Fib Band on this date will be 280k bitcoin which lines up with Plans B price prediction of 280k.
cointelegraph.com
If we do break this fib level(0.618 Fan) and starting closing weekly candles under it, next targets would be about 25k and this would be the last line that bitcoin needs to hold to keep this bull run going, a break of 0.75 Fib Fan would confirm that we are going into some kind of a small bear market.
Bitcoin heading for 42K zone. Will we see a breakout ?Finally #bitcoin is back in action. It is constantly moving up at an impressive pace.
Going by the chart, I have marked two zones for BTC. As long as it stays within the Green zone, it will stay bullish. However if it enters the Red zone, then it will turn bearish.
Hopefully today we will get to see where BTC is heading.
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Note - These are my personal notes and in no way a financial advice. Do your own research and Trade wisely
BITCOIN Convergence/Divergence of cycles shows we are on track?On this study I will look into one of my all time favorites, the comparison of Bitcoin's cycles and how they way they converge or diverge from each other can give a meaningful interpretation of current movements and a projection of future price action. In particular my focus will be on the current Cycle (the 4th historically that started on December 2017, displayed by the orange pattern) and how it compares with Cycle 3 (November 2013 - December 2017, displayed by the blue pattern).
** Similar previous studies **
This is not the first time I compare the two using the Convergence - Divergence model. My initial publication here (have done even older ones on reddit) was the following on May 2019, that projected BTC's correction during Q3-Q4 2019:
After that the model showed on November 2019 how the $6000 level was a good buy opportunity (and would have been the bottom if it weren't for the March 2020 COVID flash crash):
On April 30 2020 it showed again a potential divergence:
While my most recent one on March 2021, which was centered around the Cycles' halvings, showed why they two Cycles would converge again soon (which eventually happened).
** What happened now? **
From a technical cyclical perspective and only on the longer time-frames, what happened now was exactly what the Convergence - Divergence model suggested, i.e. after a prolonged period of time where the two Cycles (Cycle 3 and Cycle 4) diverged (from late November 2020 to April 2021), they eventually converged and during the crash of the past 2 weeks, they have started to diverge again. This time, it is Cycle 4 (i.e. the current one) that has corrected its aggressive 6 month parabolic rally and is diverging below Cycle 3.
** Is this divergence dangerous **
The obvious answer based on the model is that this divergence is natural and by all means not dangerous to long-term investors. In fact it is perfectly aligned with the Theory of Lengthening Cycles and Diminishing Returns that I have analyzed here on multiple occasions. That Theory suggests that every Cycle is longer in duration than the previous one and its peak is logarithmically lower as BTC offers diminishing returns on its quest to greater adoption by the market/ society.
To be fair, that shouldn't be regarded as a 'theory' anymore, as practically it has been correct for each of the previous three Cycles. As you see on the chart, Cycle 2 (June 2011 - November 2013, displayed by the yellow pattern) was longer than Cycle 1 (July 2010 - June 2011, displayed by the red pattern) and Cycle 3 was longer than Cycle 2, all of which made peaks lower (as of the same scale) than the peaks of their respective previous Cycles.
** What does this model mean for us now? Fear kicked in **
That means that for some time the current Cycle should continue to diverge from Cycle 3 and take longer until it makes its peak, lower than Cycle 3. Whether that will be on the upper light-blue line, the red line or the lower light-blue line (it should in theory), that's debatable.
One thing is for certain right now as the chart below shows us, and that is that fear has kicked in once again:
As you see on this chart, every time fear has kicked in (i.e. Cycle 4 diverged below Cycle 3), that proved to be a great Buy Opportunity. On the other hand, during maximum greed (Cycle 4 diverging above Cycle 3), the price corrected.
What do you think? With fear having spread across the market and the price diverging from the previous Cycle is this a good time to buy? Is Bitcoin right on track or this is the start of a new Bear Cycle? If the theory is correct, does it mean that we will now experience the lengthening of the new Cycle?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Reversal Starting May 31st (BTC)If we start closing weekly candles above this 0.168 fib level we could see the start of a reversal coming , the date I get with the Fib time zones is May 31st . I have been covering this date here for weeks about that date possibly being an important pivot point , if we start closing weekly candles above 0.168 fib the chances are, momentum will swing to the upside. If we do break this fib next ,target would be 24k at the 0.75 fib.
Recovery will take weeks if not months, HODL .
If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.
– Satoshi Nakamoto