BTCDominance Elliott Waves Analysis (Time to Fall)Hello friends.
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Everything on the chart.
Target zone: 47-45%
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Btcdominance
New changes are expected to begin in the near futureHello?
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(USDT chart)
(1D chart)
The possibility of major changes on the USDT chart is increasing.
When the Bollinger Bands (bollinger bands), which have seen the flow of the historical USDT chart, contracted and expanded, it has shown a large upward trend.
It is necessary to confirm whether this time it will show the same appearance as the previous flow.
If it does not, and it shows a decline below 81.839B, it is expected to create a new wave.
USDT is a fund that plays an important role in supporting the coin market.
Therefore, if USDT turns to a downtrend, it is very likely that the coin market will show a large downtrend, so it is necessary to keep an eye on it.
Currently, it is expected to show an upward trend like the previous trend.
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(USDC chart)
USDC also has a high market cap ranking.
Therefore, it can be seen that funds entering the coin market through USDC also play an important role.
However, if you look at the USDC chart, it continues to show a downward trend.
This downward trend can never be seen as having a good effect on the coin market.
Currently, there are not many trading pairs that can be traded with USDC itself.
Therefore, we have reasonable doubts that we are converting the funds that flowed into the coin market through USDC into USDT.
USDC believes that when a coin market investment product is launched on the stock market, it is operated with funds that maintain and manage (?) this investment product.
Therefore, we believe that a rise in the stock market is likely to lead to a fall in USDC.
In any case, it is clear that USDC is not yet having a significant impact on the coin market as a whole.
If the USDC market starts to be created on exchanges around the world, it is expected that USDC will also have an influence over the coin market.
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(BTC.D chart)
What you can tell from the BTC dominance chart is whether the money in the coin market is concentrated in BTC or altcoins.
Therefore, the rise in BTC dominance can be interpreted as meaning that funds are concentrated towards BTC.
If this movement continues, altcoins will gradually move sideways or decline.
BTC dominance is expected to pick up direction again in the 56.78-61.73 zone.
Therefore, if you are currently trading altcoins, a quick response is required from a short-term perspective.
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(USDT.D chart)
USDT has a USDT market formed on exchanges around the world.
As such, USDT has a great influence across the coin market.
In that sense, the movement of USDT dominance allows us to see the flow of the coin market.
Looking at the big picture right now, I would expect a major trend to form depending on which way the 6.21-8.25 area is deviating.
To do so, it is necessary to check what kind of movement is shown in the 6.85-7.27 section.
An increase in USDT dominance is likely to lead to a decline in the coin market.
Therefore, USDT dominance is, in a way, equivalent to the invert chart of the BTC chart.
However, since USDT is involved in the overall flow of the coin market, it is not necessarily related to the BTC chart.
Therefore, when viewing Market Cap charts (USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D, TOTAL, TOTAL2, OTHERS, etc.), you should look at several related charts together.
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To sum up,
I think the possibility of a new trend in the coin market is increasing due to changes in the USDT chart and changes in USDT dominance.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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BTC.D past and presantI think it is important to show this chart.
A LOT of people keep pointing towards the BTC Dominance chart as a signal for the Next ALT season.
The Green Boxes show us where the 2 Major seasons occurred ( Green Boxes ) and how BTC.D rose and then has entered into a Descending channel , Fell below lower trendline and has since re-entered it and, since Dec 2022, been rising again.
Note how the PA has followed the VPVR on the right of the chart almost Exactly and has now, come to a "Blip" of resistance. Could also be seen as a window of opportunity for BTC.D right now
What is More important to take note of , is that line of resistance PA is just below because it rejected PA from Aug '19 to Nov '20 and again in Feb - March '21
It is also worth noting, na dmaking aloowences for, the Dominance of #bitcoin in the Market, or its % of Market chare, Gets reduced slightly everytime a New Coin enters the space, hence the over all Drop as seen in the chart and the smaller % Rise in ALT seasons.
If #BTC PA continues along its current Path, It will bump into that trendline around OCT this year and it is impossible to say how it will react
Just so you know
Mid- to long-term trading strategy with Market Cap chartHello?
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(USDT chart)
As USDT fell below the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart, the likelihood of further declines is increasing.
Therefore, the key is whether the gap can rise above the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart.
However, since the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is formed at point 82959B, if USDT is maintained around 82.467B-82959B, the coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend.
USDT is a stablecoin that has a huge impact on the coin market.
Therefore, we believe that funds transferred through USDT play an important role in the volatility of the coin market.
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(USDC chart)
Looking at the 1M chart, it is down more than -50%.
Where did so much money go?
USDC is considered an active stable coin by making coins in the coin market into investment products in the stock market.
Therefore, funds using USDC can be understood as funds required to invest in or maintain investment products in the stock market.
Therefore, it is believed that funds are being moved to invest more in the stock market than the current coin market.
Therefore, it is believed that important funds are flowing out of the coin market in starting or maintaining the upward trend of the coin market.
As a result, I believe that the funds flowing into USDT are limiting or reducing the upward trend of the coin market.
No matter how it is, the coin market is expected to maintain an upward trend as long as the funds inflow through USDT are not withdrawn.
Therefore, you should focus on when to proceed with the purchase.
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(BTC.D chart)
BTC dominance is expected to rise around 56.78-61.73.
Accordingly, caution is required when trading altcoins.
An increase in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated towards BTC.
Therefore, altcoins are more likely to move sideways or decline.
A drop below 50.49 is required to lead to an uptrend for the altcoin, and a drop to or below the 47.64-48.80 range will feel like an altcoin bull market.
In any case, BTC dominance will rise around 56.78-61.73, so it is better to trade the uptrend of these altcoins in the short term.
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(USDT.D chart)
We entered the important section, the 6.85-7.27 section.
Accordingly, it is necessary to see if it can fall below 6.85 by the start of the volatility period around July 5th.
A drop in USDT dominance means an uptrend in the coin market.
This uptrend represents an overall uptrend in the coin market, so it is usually expected that BTC or ETH will show an uptrend.
The most important thing to look at on the USDT dominance chart is whether it falls below 6.21 or rises above 8.25.
If it does not break out of the 6.21-8.25 zone, the coin market is expected to continue sideways.
These sideways are what you'll see when you look at the big picture.
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Since the amount of money (USDT, USDC) supporting the coin market is moving in the opposite direction, in this situation, I think it is better to consider the trading period larger than mid- to long-term rather than short-term trading.
Looking at the coin market from a mid- to long-term perspective, it can be divided based on BTC 29K.
When BTC is below 29K, you should focus on buying BTC or ETH from a mid- to long-term perspective.
And, proceed with the 1st purchase of altcoins to be held in the mid- to long-term.
If it rises above BTC 29K, you should focus on finding time to split and sell BTC or ETH by buying below BTC 29K.
Therefore, you can split the sale when the rate of return per purchase unit price is 30% or more, or split the sale when the rate of return is 100%.
The timing of such split selling can be set according to your investment style, and you may not sell splits.
However, if it rises above 32K, the range of fluctuation is expected to be large, so it is recommended to proceed with split selling because no matter how profitable you are, if your psychological state becomes excited, you may proceed with a wrong transaction.
When an altcoin rises above BTC 32K, you should start looking for the timing of the second purchase of the altcoin you bought the first time.
If you have not made the first purchase, you need to find the time to buy the altcoin to buy in the 29K-32K section.
Since the second buying period of Altcoins is around BTC 43K, you can proceed slowly with split buying.
When BTC rises above 43K or shows support by touching the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart, we proceed to buy all the coins we have in earnest.
This full-fledged purchase refers to the purchase with the remaining funds minus the reserve surplus funds.
A reserve fund should be set aside between 10% and 20% of the total investment.
This is because the psychological pressure caused by price fluctuations after purchase can be relieved to some extent.
Coins (tokens) bought in this way can be sold when BTC rises to around 81K.
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- big picture
A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.
81K-95K is the range we expect to touch in the next bull market.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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Wandering Coin Market FundsHello?
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(USDT chart)
A long lower tail was created and then gapped up.
I think the fact that the formation of candlesticks like this occurs is evidence that many transactions have been conducted.
Therefore, we believe that the possibility of a change in trend has increased as we have passed this period of volatility.
If the gap falls below 82.467B-82.959B, the coin market is expected to be in a sharp decline.
The coin market is expected to remain bullish as it is currently showing a gap increase.
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(USDC chart)
The decline of USDC is interpreted as a continued outflow of funds from US investment institutions.
Therefore, the coin market is expected to show a different flow from that of the stock market.
Since there are few trading pairs that are directly traded with USDC, I think the direct influence on the coin market is weak.
However, it is necessary to be cautious in trading as it increases the possibility of limiting the rise of the coin market or showing a temporary plunge.
In contrast, USDT is a stablecoin that has a direct impact on the coin market.
Therefore, if USDT continues to gap up, the coin market is expected to maintain its uptrend.
Currently, USDT has renewed its previous high (ATH), indicating that there is a lot of money flowing into the coin market.
Therefore, when a start signal occurs, I think it is highly likely to show a sharp uptrend.
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(BTC.D chart)
The support and resistance points shown on the 1D chart and the support and resistance points shown on the 1W and 1M charts are slightly different.
The reason is that when viewed on the 1D chart, the support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W and 1D charts have been reset according to their importance.
The next period of volatility is around July 25th.
As mentioned before, BTC dominance is expected to rise to the 56.78-61.73 range.
If so, it is expected that the direction of departure from the 56.78-61.73 section will determine whether it will form a small bull market or a strange market where only BTC rises.
Accordingly, it is necessary to be cautious when trading altcoins.
If a strange market is formed where only BTC rises, it is time for the second buying of altcoins, so you should pay attention to the coins (tokens) that are expanding the coin ecosystem.
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(USDT.D chart)
Since the flow of funds in the coin market is divided into USDT, USDC, and BTC.D charts, it may be difficult to understand the overall flow.
So, to sum up,
The coin market is overflowing with funds. (Rising trend of USDT)
However, the problem is that the forces leading the upward trend by burning this overflowing funds are leaking funds from the coin market. (USDC downtrend)
Therefore, it can be seen that significant funds contained in USDT are likely to be funds from individual investors.
Funds that account for the largest portion of USDT are expected to be Chinese funds.
Since I think that the current leadership of the coin market has shifted to US funds, I think the rise of USDC will soon lead to the rise of the coin market.
The volatility of USDT dominance plays a good role in confirming changes in the coin market.
The reason is that all coins (tokens) can be directly traded using USDT.
The volatility period for USDT dominance is around July 5th-August 2nd.
So, the question is whether it can break out of the 6.21-8.25 zone during the volatility period starting around July 5th.
Among them, volatility is expected to occur based on the 6.85-7.27 interval.
USDT dominance must fall for the coin market to show an upward trend.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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BTC and BTC DOM, Reversal or Continue? Hi traders,
This is my POV about BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
On weekly TF, BTC's trading around 30150 now.
You can see BTCDOM's over ATH 2021 and 2022, now it's nearly 52%.
I see some good signals
- RSI Overbought, not divergence
- MACD > 0, going up
- ADX > 40, strong strength.
- Price's a big green candle, it shows buyer pressure.
BTC on 4H TF
It's in Triangle Pattern.
My opinion is Bitcoin will breakout and go up to $38,000 - 39,000. That range has a lot of touching in the past.
Wait and see the market react
Bitcoin Dominance is Close to its TopTLDR:
• BTCDOM is in the final stages of a Cup and Handle Formation.
• Max target for BTCDOM is 500 billion.
• I estimate that BTCDOM still has two or three months of upside. During this time Bitcoin will perform better than most alts. However, BTCDOM is close to toping. Once BTCDOM realizes its full potential I expect the alt valuation in BTC terms will increase.
Background:
• In a previous TV idea, I covered the TOTAL 3 Chart (linked). My conclusion was that the altcoin bear market is close to its end. I wanted to corroborate or refute this Assessment by reviewing the BTC Dominance chart. I am happy to tell you that my bias seems to be accurate.
• To be clear Bitcoin is mega-bullish and I expect it keep being bullish. The only aspect of bitcoin I expect to diminish is its dominance in the crypto market.
Chart Analysis:
BTCDOM is in the final stages of a perfect Cup & Handle formation. These include the following:
1. Uptrend: BTCDOM was in an uptrend since May 21st until June 22nd . During this period BTCDOM rose by 195%.
2. Correction/Cup: Since March of 2023 BTCDOM was in a correction. This correction took the shape of a rounding bottom. The lowest point of this correction touched the 0.382 fib retracement. This is a valid Cup.
3. Handle: During the Months of March and April BTCDOM consolidated in a Bull Flag which is valid for a handle.
4. Breakout: BTCDOM broke out to the upside on the weekly candle of April 24th. BTCDOM tested the 338 billion level as support on the weekly candle of May 29th.
5. Target: The target of this Cup and Handle formation is the 500 billion level. Currently Bitcoin is at 387 billion.
Conclusions:
This may sound bearish for altcoins. However, I would like to point out a few issues.
A. it is not guaranteed the BTCDOM will reach the 500 billion level.
B. Even if it will, it took us 10 weeks to get to the halfway point, so we have 2 or three months of an extreme BTCDOM at the most.
C. Markets are forward looking. If I can analyze the chart and see what is coming, you can bet your last Satoshi that the VCs and whales see it as well. My guess is that they are accumulating big-time.
D. Ask yourself: Would I long an asset that already made a 250% gain? or would you look for an undervalued asset that still has a lot of upside?
E. BTCDOM is close to oversold on the weekly RSI. Does it have some room for more upside? Sure. However, BTCDOM is close to the top.
Please read my TOTAL 3 analysis for more context.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
Decreasing USDT inflow (to see if USDT.D falls below 7.14)Hello?
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(USDT chart)
It shows an uptrend due to trading after a gap down.
An uptrend with a candlestick movement without gapping indicates that USDT is increasing due to selling.
I think the rise of the candlestick appears because the USDT that has increased in this way remains held.
As long as it does not fall below the 82.467B-82.959B range, the coin market is expected to maintain its uptrend.
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(USDC chart)
USDC is showing a gap decline.
At the same time, it is falling below the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart.
In order for USDC to turn into an uptrend, it must maintain a rise above at least the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart and the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
The upward trend in the coin market due to the inflow of USDC is expected to begin only when it rises above 33.907B.
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(BTC.D chart)
The HA-High indicator on the 1D chart appeared to be created, but disappeared as the volatility period passed.
We believe that the rise in BTC dominance is a fundamental phenomenon that will eventually lead to a major uptrend in the coin market.
Therefore, it can be said that when BTC dominance continues to rise, it is a buying time.
However, you have to think about which coin (token) to buy, but if possible, it is better to buy coins (tokens) that are expanding the coin ecosystem.
The fact that the coin ecosystem is expanding is because it is a coin (token) that many people are paying attention to, so it is highly likely to continue to rise.
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(USDT chart)
We touched the important branch points 78.25 and 7.14.
So, if it falls below 6.85-7.27 and stays there, the coin market is expected to be out of sideways.
If it rises above 8.25, the coin market is expected to plummet.
It is expected that the coin market will need to fall below 6.21 to break out of the critical support and resistance zone.
This move is expected to boost the BTC price by over 35K.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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BTC.D Review 1DayIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the situation of BTC Dominance over the rest of the cryptocurrency market. At the beginning, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel, which after several attempts was able to exit upwards.
Now, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places where dominance should encounter resistance. And here we see that we are facing a very strong resistance at 53.99%, but when it is overcome we can see a rapid increase to around 63.33%, which will give BTC a significant advantage over the rest of the market.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here, in the first place, it is worth marking the support zone from 48.19% to $ 47.04, but when we fall below this zone, we can see a decrease to around 45.92%, and then to the second support zone from 44.27% by 42 .17%.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that most of the energy has been used, the MACD indicator confirms a strong uptrend, while on the RSI we crossed the upper limits of the range, which should give a moment of recovery or at least a temporary sideways trend with small pullbacks.
$BTC -Buy Opportunity- Bitcoin is sitting at a good buying opportunity on different perspectives
(long-term investing DCA, mid-term bounce- short term craze) ;
in the midst of TVC:DXY plunging today
Currently trading at Strong Zone of Support :
- S/R area
- Its Support of Golden Zone of 15K low to 31K High (CHoCH uptrend)
-Demand Zone
Looking for CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 as well to make some moves ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D should be surveyed)
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
📈 Bitcoin Dominance Most Bullish Since Jan. 2018Bitcoin Dominance is about to go through the roof. The weekly RSI is at its highest level since September 2019.
The setup we are seeing now is something we haven't seen since early 2018.
We are also about to experience the "mirror image" of the phase that took place in Q1-Q2 2022. Mirror image as in reverse.
We should see massive growth across the Cryptocurrency market.
New people coming in, new money, new developments, new excitement... Growth and progress will flow from Bitcoin to the Altcoins and then back and forth.
The worst is already in the past, 2022... We are set to experience years of growth.
Namaste.
Possibility of trying new challengeshello?
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
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(USDT chart)
After June 3rd, it is showing a decline as it creates a gap for the second time.
If this decline continues, there is a possibility that the coin market will plunge.
(USDC chart)
The reason is that USDC's continued decline is believed to limit the current uptrend of the coin market.
Therefore, if even USDT shows a downward trend by creating a gap, it is expected that the rate of outflow of funds from the coin market will accelerate and the possibility of a sharp drop will increase.
However, USDT is currently in a state where it has renewed its previous high price (ATH), so it is not at risk yet.
If USDT falls below the previous high of 82.467B, i.e., below 81.839B-82.467B, a red flag is likely to be generated, so you should think about how to respond.
It is possible that these outflows were caused by the uptrend in the stock market.
If so, this phenomenon is likely temporary.
Since a lot of money is currently flowing into the investment market, I think that if an issue is created in any investment market, great volatility can occur.
The size and flow of funds in the investment market alone cannot determine the price fluctuations of individual stocks, coins, or tokens.
However, I think it will be a great reference for creating a trading strategy that can respond according to the importance of the current point or section by chart analysis of individual stocks, coins, and tokens.
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(BTC.D chart)
No matter what anyone says, BTC dominance is expected to remain on the rise.
The uptrend is expected to continue around 56.78-61.73.
Therefore, it is expected to confirm direction again around 56.78-61.73.
I think this phenomenon confirms that the current BTC price is located at the bottom.
Therefore, it is considered that the second wave of the rising wave is in progress for the BTC wave from a long-term perspective.
(USDT.D chart)
If USDT dominance is maintained in the 7.14-8.25 section, it is expected to continue its upward trend.
When that happens, it is expected to renew the declared price (ATH).
Therefore, for the next period of volatility, the move from around July 5 is expected to be significant.
If it falls below the 6.85-7.27 range, it is expected to escape the risk of a sharp decline in the coin market to some extent.
A full-fledged uptrend in the coin market is expected to begin with a decline around 4.97-5.53, so it is important to check for a drop below 6.21.
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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.
** This is a chart created with my know-how.
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BTC/USDT potential sharp movementIn this chart I analized BTC.d with BTC/USDT and compare same potential pettern to be repeat again.
by looking at the time period between two vertical dashed lines as the BTC.d rised up; BTC price almost doubled. why a valid breaking from the trading range do not turn into a 10 to 15 thousands US $ increase again?
tonight we have important news that could work as an engin.
this is just an analize to make you alert, no position opened yet.
HAVE LUCK.
52% - 57% next targets for BTC. DBTC dominance broke 50% and there is minimal resistance until 52%.
If 52% breaks we could scam wick to 54% and down or continue to 57% and rekt the altcoinmarket.
most likely scenario seems to be 54% currently, but with big financial players entering BTC etf we might see higher.
MUH ALTS, They Bleeeding, here is why
As you can see in the chart BTC Dominance above the important Resistance Zone that we have been talking about.
This is why your precious Altcoins are bleeding. BTC and ETH are still doing relatively well in the grand scheme of things.
Remember, when BTC dominance is high you buy alts, what comes up must come down. Before every major alt season BTC dominance had a pump, only to dump while Alt season was unfolding.
BTC and ETH dominance both might be breaking out to test 52-57% and 22-25% respectively. Personally i dont think BTC dominance will rise much higher than 52% unlike ETH that might reach 25% considering the BTC/ETH pair chart is looking good and the hype around ETH and layer 2 solutions still unfolding.
Exactly why I have been posting about BTC more than ALTSBTC Dominance breakout as expected shows Bitcoin is preferred. Then again some alts are doing quite well in general these days :
With fundamentals going better (Feds, rates etc) Alts will be favored a bit later...
53.3% and 58% are the two main levels we can see BTC Dominance taking a halt.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
BTC dominance. Will Ethereum leave the 2-nd line of the ranking?Bitcoin dominance is the reason why you will lose by buying altcoins now!
Many believe that ETH market cap can exceed BTC market cap. However, history shows us the opposite picture, that Ethereum will drop from the second place down, the question is just when...
A significant event that the market has not seen for a long time will soon take place, when Bitcoin shows good growth, and at this moment many altcoins will be falling in relation to USD. It will be very unpleasant to observe this with a large portfolio of altcoins.
Judging by everything, this will be the day when the court announces the verdict on the Ripple and XRP case. As the major exchanges introduce KYC before June 21, very soon XRP and many altcoin's will start being called unregistered securities, after which liquidity will flow even more actively from altcoins to Bitcoin.
I want to start with my list of TOP 10 trading recommendations, which has been around for a couple of years, and all this time there have been different situations in the market, but it remains unchanged.
1. The size of investments in cryptocurrencies is calculated from the possibility of a 100% loss. With high probability, 90% of cryptocurrencies will eventually disappear.
2. Avoid various pump groups. They are created to make money off you.
3. Everyone makes trading mistakes. It is important to learn not to make the same mistake twice.
4. Try not to trade against the trend. Trading is about identifying the trend and partially "riding" it. The market is cyclical and each cycle has phases. Learn to distinguish market phases.
5. Do not buy a coin if you know nothing about it or are unsure of your knowledge. This is very important in the current market phase.
6. Do not be afraid of market crashes - there lies the opportunity to earn well.
7. Do not "marry" altcoins, especially in the bear market phase.
8. You can make more than 50% wrong trades and still remain profitable. The main thing is to manage risks correctly.
9. Don't fuss. Imagine yourself as a hunter - save your ammunition (USD or BTC) for the big game.
10. If you have made a lot of money, lock in your profit or part of the profit, take a rest and do nothing for a week, read a book on market psychology.
All my major investment mistakes were made due to a strong involvement in the technologies that altcoins offer. I believed in the great potential of certain, quite fundamental projects, but in many market phases they did not show the expected result, and Bitcoin often left everyone behind. For the cryptocurrency market, the word "altseason" is now an integral part, from the point of view of global marketing. But altcoins come and go, while Bitcoin remains, I think it will always be that way. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin, I like other mathematical models for decentralized finance, but it's very important to understand the different phases in the market and consider all risks.
If you study history well, only gold has always been in the immutable and first place in the world financial system ranking. Starting from the 14th century and the Portuguese real, the sixth cycle of world currency dominance change is underway. Perhaps many of us will have the opportunity to witness how such a cycle change will occur by transitioning to the dominance of the Chinese yuan in global fiat transactions.
We are now in the ninth year when Ethereum is in second place in the cryptocurrency market cap ranking. If we project this onto cryptocurrencies, history shows us that Bitcoin will remain like gold, while someone else will take Ethereum's place. I would not have thought about this before, but the current news agenda regarding cryptocurrency market regulation has changed everything.
Are there any fundamental grounds for such a change? Previously, the SEC unofficially stated that ETH is not considered a security. But there were also words from the SEC that after Ethereum's transition to the POS protocol, this relationship might change, although these words are not remembered by anyone, perhaps deliberately for now. And here the very scheme of selling ETH coins through ICO will greatly worry the SEC, because if ETH is recognized as a "commodity", then many other projects will fit this template and use ETH as an example to justify themselves before the SEC. I think the SEC does not need such problems, and in the end, they will simply have to recognize ETH as a security. The introduction of the EIP-1559 update to Ethereum further increases this likelihood, as no one burns a "commodity" to give it additional value. We recall the history with the Howey Test and oranges. Let's destroy some of the collected oranges, add value, so other people would buy them at a higher price? In fact, the top cryptocurrency exchanges already in 2019 created a test of 36 questions, after answering which a cryptocurrency is rated on a 5-point system for the likelihood NOT to be called a security.
All exchanges know what will happen next, so they gradually introduce KYC. The Hotbit exchange even announced a suspension of operations, citing worsening operating conditions due to regulation, and asked users to withdraw their remaining assets by June 21.
Unlike his predecessor, the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has not expressed a clear position on the status of Ethereum. He previously noted that he considers most cryptocurrencies, with the exception of Bitcoin, as securities — but despite this, the Commission did not include ETH in the recently published list of assets falling under this classification.
Recently, JPMorgan expressed the opinion that the U.S. Congress may recognize Ethereum as a new class of assets, and it could take an intermediate position between a commodity and a security. According to the company's strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, in this case, the financial regulator will have far fewer requirements for the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. If such statements were made, it is likely that questions will ultimately be posed to ETH as well.
Why is such a scenario realistic? Over these 9 years of Ethereum's dominance among altcoins, other strong blockchains have emerged that may overtake it in popularity over time, but no one will replace Bitcoin. From my point of view, I see one such project, but that's the topic of another article. For now, let's call such an event a "Black Swan" and it won't be instantaneous, it will be a lengthy transitional process with a lot of speculation and contenders for the top spots in the market capitalization rankings.
Let's say the SEC starts a case against ETH, what are the consequences? The money will flow into Bitcoin in advance, then Ethereum will start having problems. It may even end with Vitalik Buterin officially renouncing his brainchild. This would add decentralization to ETH and it would no longer have an obvious leader who can influence the market with Twitter publications. Moreover, Buterin hinted at such a departure a couple of times, which increases the likelihood.
There's another interesting point. The first NFT from the CryptoPunks collection that was transferred to the Bitcoin blockchain from the Ethereum network through burning has been recorded! On June 18th, address 0xBc…0a71 spent 54.49 ETH to purchase punk number 8611, then sent it to the burn address Null: 0x00…dEaD and reincarnated it as bitcoin record number 12,456,749. For conspiracy theorists, this is definitely some sort of sign.
Everything that's happening in the news headlines today with the word "SEC" is something I expected last year. I've been studying cryptocurrency regulation since 2019, and until today, I've tried to understand what awaits us with its arrival. Apparently, the regulation has been delayed because the transition of ETH to POS has also been severely delayed. Also, the FedNow payment system from the Federal Reserve is coming out in July, hence the digital dollar (CBDC). This is the main answer as to why there is no further delay.
What will follow when digital assets are divided into securities, digital currencies, and utility tokens? This is the most interesting part! Once all laws and amendments regarding regulation are implemented and a status for each digital asset is determined, in my opinion, the only way to enter regulated markets will be on the condition that the owner is listed for each blockchain wallet address through KYC. No one is talking about this, maybe they're not even thinking about it, but it's likely to be just like this. Every security must have an KYC owner!
Such uncertainties will hinder new investments, and the market will begin to restructure or adapt to new conditions. The altcoin market will suffer the most. While everyone argues whether ETH, BNB, and XRP are securities or commodities, I want to remind you that Bitcoin has officially been recognized as a means of payment in El Salvador = it has officially acquired the status of "digital currency" or "money".
There is also good news. If you fully understand what regulators are currently thinking, you can timely place a bet on digital assets that will be recognized as utilities and have future prospects, they will not be of interest to regulators. But there are still many risks here as this will trigger another bear market phase from the fall.
Ethereum has one trump card. I've studied how the split of the ETH and ETC networks happened, and from the point of view of all processes, the original Ethereum, the coins that were sold in the ICO – it is precisely Ethereum Classic (ETC). That is, today's ETH is a fork from ETC, which everyone got for free, or mined later through mining or staking in the ETH 2.0 network. From this point of view, the new ETHW fork may show growth on all upcoming speculations. Today, the capitalization of ETHW is less than $200 million. Perhaps there will be a trial, and at some stage fact, about ETH is a fork from ETC, may emerge from the defense. Then all other projects will immediately start releasing forks or Airdrop their main networks to new networks, which Matic has already announced. In the medium term, this can be a positive for the altcoin market, as it will give a new impulse to the mechanism to print money out of thin air, I can't call it other words. Honestly, I think in the long term the story with forks and Airdrops is not crowned with great success, as I'm waiting for the "Black Swan", which will begin to change the paradigm established today. We watch and prepare to make money on speculations.
Since February, in my publications, I often refer to the fact that Bitcoin's dominance should show a strong trend, but there were few reasons for this. Now they are more obvious, and I want to show the main points on the chart, when and how to start looking at altcoins with the least risks, wait until the "regulation" storm passes and predominantly stay in Bitcoin.
I don't think there's any point in spreading out and looking for prospects in POW coins like Litecoin or Ethereum Classic, etc. My trading experience has shown that when dominance starts to pick up a trend, almost all altcoins deflate and it's optimal to stay in Bitcoin. Soon, money will start flowing more actively from altcoins to BTC and I think we will see a rise to 28,000-30,000 dollars this summer. Only after such a rise will dominance reach the first designated level of 55.7% for selective purchases and from there it will already be necessary to analyze who will "survive" in place.
BITCOIN dominance update best time to buy altcoins when btc domiance is above 55%.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
best time to buy altcoins when btc domiance is above 55%
USDT/USD Hidden Bearish Divergence Deathcross SetupUSDT, the so-called stable coin, is now below the Bullish Control Zone on the RSI and is showing MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence on multiple Intraday Timeframes at this level after failing to take back the 55 and 89 EMAs. If this goes as any other chart normally would, I would expect it to go back down to the lows of the range, which in this case would take us down to around 94 cents, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went lower.