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Btccycle

Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
“The Cyclical Nature of #Bitcoin - Charts Never Lie”#Bitcoin's four-year cycles have become the fundamental rhythm of the cryptocurrency market. These cycles begin with the halving event, which occurs every four years and significantly affects price movements. By halving mining rewards, supply shrinks and the market responds over time. After the halving, there are usually periods of rise, followed by correction and consolidation phases. This cycle offers security based on CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's inherent limited supply model and serves as a stable guide for long-term investors. Although short-term volatilities can be daunting, #BTC 's past performance has shown the importance of cyclical movements and that, historically, the next uptrend is inevitable.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by EtherNasyonaL
Bitcoin Post 4th Halving Price Prediction for 2024Hello my friends! I am back after a long break. Bitcoin has just experienced it's 4th halving event. I took it upon myself to look into past Bitcoin price movement patterns, looking into how Bitcoin's price reacted immediately after Bitcoin experienced a halving event. I'm primarily using a historical time-based analysis approach. Here are my findings: - Bitcoin's prices seem to hold for about 60 days, and then either pump or dump. - Bitcoin appears to experience its constant bullish price movements (bull run) 60 days immediately after each halving event. - Bitcoin appears to reach its final top 133 to 525 days after each halving event (average is 329 days). - Bitcoin appears to reach its top every 1162 to 1449 days each time it touches the upper trend line. - Bitcoin is currently in a major Cup and Handle pattern spanning from 8th of November 2021. We are currently in the 'Handle' phase. My Predictions: - I predict that Bitcoin will go down to 52000, and hover around 53K and 54K for the next 2 months (29th of April 2024, until the 4th of July 2024). - I believe we will promptly head back to 70K at around the 11th of July 2024 (± 5 days). - I predict that there will be a FOMO event once we break all-time-high (73K), and a major psychological FOMO event once we reach 100K as everyone tries to get their hands on some Bitcoin before it's price gains another significant figure for the first time since November 29th 2017 (9999 -> 10000). Entry and Exit Strategies: - I believe we will reach tops of anywhere between 160K to 185K sometime in December 2024, which will be the most ideal time to exit one's Bitcoin position. - Possible entry options are 52-58K , and 78K-88K (once we exist the Cup and Handle). - The least riskiest entry option is approximately 62 days from the 4th halving event, just as it's breaking upward past 57500. Don't forget, Patience is Paramount. Happy trading :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by PatienceIsParamount
Bitcoin Cycles: A Bullish Prelude? 📊🐂Echoes of the Past: Cycles Revisited The Bitcoin market, much like nature, operates in cycles. The most exciting part? These cycles bear a striking resemblance when examined across different timeframes. The Telltale Signs: An Identical Bottoming Pattern What's been consistent in these cycles is the pattern of the market bottoming out. It's like a signature move—Bitcoin experiences a substantial dip, testing the nerves of investors, before staging a remarkable recovery. The Imminent Question: Is a Bullish Turnaround Ahead? If history is any indication, the patterns observed in the past have often heralded a change in market sentiment. When the market tests its lows and rebounds vigorously, it frequently signifies the start of a new bullish cycle. Trading Insight: Learning from the Past Understanding Bitcoin's historical patterns is invaluable for traders. It encourages a balanced approach during market downturns, enabling them to stay resilient while poised for potential upward momentum. Conclusion: A Familiar Tune The Bitcoin market's cycles echo throughout history, offering a glimpse into the future. By recognizing these patterns and their significance, traders can harness the insights they provide, navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape. 📈 Market Cycles | 🔄 Historical Parallels | 🌐 Cryptocurrency Trends | 📉 Risk Management ❗See related ideas below❗ Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!! 💚📊💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Bitcoin Halving Cycles | Cycle Bottom to Previous ATHWe're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle. This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. 2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. 2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH: From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs. Where do we stand today? Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around. Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022. 392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH: Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651. We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake. We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year. As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 🚀
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by kyer
34
Bitcoin accurate bottom and top zones BINANCE:BTCUSDT This is my market mood indicator. Accurate determine the bottoms and top of cycles. Based on this analysis on BLX chart and Monthly timeframe we can find something interesting - Marked Monthly green zones. - We never seen white color disbeliefe zones. - Previews 3 times when we saw BLUE color it was a bottom (I was impressed how accurate it play out!!!) - Now it looks like 2018-2019 period (green box-blue-green) - So now no euphoria on market. Need to see yellow, orange and top will be again at extreme red - Hard to say about timing but most likely we will test trendLine at 35-36 (maybe with fake out to 41) - Then we will see yellow and orange color on indicator and drop to covid trendLines again 21-19 and continue move forward till 2025 March to extreme RED zones and end of cycle. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4light
Path to next halving bull cycle launch April 2024My own plan to follow for the rest of this bear cycle & the coming bull run 2024 Planning to DCA in to alts when BTC hits around 12K price. I think we are going to that price due to global market conditions & we are still early in a bear cycle to pamp from this current price of 19,800. Of course consider the ever changing landscape as markets dictate's cryptos direction. However we all know from the past the real catalyst for the bull run is the BTC halving & that's currently predicted early April 2024 If the crypto cycle plays out as per the past we should be in a major green ATHs around end of 2024 & early 2025. Plz if anyone reads this its my view of all things considered & you need to DYOR as investing in crypto can be great or terrible. Good luck & Peace & Love to you from this Aussie Bogan
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheAussieBogan
3
📊Bitcoin cycle is changing! It will never be the same.Hi, friends! A lot of traders and analytics talk about BTC cycles theory, but what could happen that would affect the entire crypto market? Read to the end! Actually, if you don`t know about BTC cycles theory i`ll try to explain it also. 📊What are BTC cycles? Cycle is a period which includes bull and bear market. One cycle can be shown by the following scheme: Bottom-ATH-Bottom Bitcoin has had two cycles in total and is now in its third cycle: 1️⃣ 2012-2015 2️⃣ 2015-2018 3️⃣ 2018-2022? 📊Presumably, Bitcoin's next cycle will be: 1️⃣ 2022-2024 - bull market 2️⃣ 2024-2025 - bear market (usually shorter, because crypto falls faster than it grows) _____________ BITCOIN CYCLES CHANGES 📊KEY THING: Bitcoin never test the ATH as a support as you can see from the chart! End of first cycle - 80% to the previous ATH End of second cycle - 64% to the previous ATH Third cycle - just 1.62% left to the ATH of the second cycle! 📊What does this mean and how this changes can affect the cryptocurrency market? This shows that Bitcoin is changing. This is because a lot of traders and investment funds are coming from the stock market into the crypto market, which they previously did not believe in or don`t have enough liquidity to trade here. Even now the Bitcoin bull market ended not with a parabolic rise, as it always was, but with the formation of a double top, which was not happening before. 🏁Does this mean that we'll never see any more PUMPS like we've always seen in crypto? No, it means Bitcoin will rise more smoothly and fall less quickly, just like the U.S. indexes (SnP500, Nasdaq, Dow etc.). Every asset has its own price "behavior" and it depends on the nature of the traders who trade it. The more players from the stock market are coming, the more Bitcoin will look like the stock market. And what will happen to altcoins? Altcoins will pump during the Bitcoin bull market as always before. They have a small capitalization, so they can grow faster. Traders, what do you think of this theory? Have you notice the changes in the cycles and BTC begavior? Write in the comments! 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BNC:BLX
by Yuriy_Bishko
8
Next Crypto pump cycleAs we reach the end of the BTC pump cycle we need to assume that it will follow what it done in the past: 1) the pump 2) the top 3) the fall 4) the stumble back up 5) the emotional pain Right now we are in the final part of the 4th stage before we get a year or two of crappy prices. Each time we've reached the top its been followed by a 70-80% decline right now we are only down 30% from ATH so according to my predictions and previous pump cycles we are due another 40-50% decline. Best case scenario It will take 475Days from the all time high which is around August 2022 for new bullrun after a 65% drop Worst case scenario It will take 475Days from the all time high which is around August 2022 for new bullrun after a 71% drop
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cuttingpotato
5
BTC's accumulation year has come?Hello, everyone. I hope and you are aware of BTC's 4 year cycle. Exponential high, Correction, Accumulation and Continuation years. In 2013, 2017, 2021 BTC has made every time it's ATH as proving the theory. And after these years in 2014, 2018 BTC went down sharply. And if we pay attention to the theory, 2022 should be bearish year for BTC. As for today I could say that we are in the bearish cycle until 2023 May. I made an analysis in Line chart in order restrict noise. Good luck in trades, buddy. P.S.: Bullish cycle for BTC will come in 2023 June until 2024 December.
by maximleanke
6
Bitcoin local 4H scenarioBINANCE:BTCPERP According to news what we have got today from FED possible to see positive scenario in global trend and continuation this bull run till summer 2022. In local picture we formed 3rd bottom on 4H MACD usually its a sign for recover. If we are break out 49530 downtrend line and middle line downtrend channel since November we should retest once again 52400. Only after retest break out 52400 we can talk about global continuation for crypto at all. My scenario since post 10December IDEA still in play. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. Don't forget sub and join my channels under this idea!
by Crypto4light
Are we still in a Bull Market or has Bear Market started now?This post is no guarantee. It is purely my opinion based on clear facts and indicators. I will show how the probabilities stand and than in the end you can create your own opinion. Alright, lets get started: 1/ If 69K was the top it would be the first cycle peak without: - Price hitting 1 fib curve - DRSI reaching red area - StochRSI reaching white zone - VRI reaching white zone --> Therefore probabilities are in favor of the Bull Market still being on! 2/ Let's focus on the red circle quickly, because that's where we currently are imo. 2013 & 2021 are pretty similar because both had mid cycle peaks & lows. For the red circle in both cycles (2013 & 2021) the following is true (so far): - PA: resistance at .5 fib curve - DRSI: RSI resistance at middle band - StochRSI: momentum slowed down - RVI: Pointed downwards 2.1/ The logical conclusion: We have Confirmation for Bullish Continuation once: - PA: 2W closes above .5fib curve - DRSI: RSI crosses above middle band - StochRSI: Momentum shifts bullish - RVI: Points upwards again. Once all 4 points become reality, chances are high to reach 1fib curve. If nothing happens Bear Market is likelier. Big credits to @TechDev_52 ! It's his original work that inspired me to dig deeper! Hope you enjoyed it! Make sure to follow me on Twitter as I'm very active there! Take Care Valerio
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Verdelli
BTC/USDT CycleI'm trying with this chart to give hope to all those who are dissapointed to the whole situation going on right now and trying to explain how market works and how the price moves by in cycles which is showed in the half curved bubble how the price goes on and respects tremendously those supports in cycle at those zones of support and how price rises when the curve starts going up with the price in the chart explained , If Bitcoin respects those support zones and starts to go up prices are shown in chart the lowest point where BTC Can make new ATH which is shown 130k and Highest price where Bitcoin could hit probably it will take maybe some time more to peak to that price probably at 2022 December , So better make yourself ready for your holding bags till those price are hit and take profit to these perfectly zones shown on the chart! Albanian description: Po përpiqem me këtë grafik t'u jap shpresë të gjithë atyre që janë të zhgënjyer nga e gjithë situata që po ndodh tani dhe përpiqem të shpjegoj se si funksionon tregu dhe si lëviz çmimi në cikle që tregohet në flluskën gjysmë të lakuar se si çmimi vazhdon dhe respekton jashtëzakonisht ato mbështetje(supporte) në cikël në ato zona të mbështetjes dhe mënyrën se si çmimi rritet kur kurba(forma gjysmë e lakuar) fillon të rritet me çmimin të shpjeguar në grafikë, nëse Bitcoin respekton ato zona mbështetëse dhe fillon të rritet, çmimet tregohen në grafik më të ulëtat pika ku BTC mund të bëjë ATH (All Time High) të re e cila është 130 mijë dhe çmimi më i lartë ku Bitcoin mund të arrijë ndoshta do të duhet ndoshta pak kohë më shumë për të arritur kulmin në atë çmim ndoshta në dhjetor 2022, kështu që më mirë bëhuni gati për çantat tuaja të hodl derisa ato çmime të arritën dhe përfitoni në këto zona të përsosura të paraqitura në grafik!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by WallstreetbetsAL
3
Bitcoin Perspective Shifter"Everyone is wrong" as Raoul Paul urges people to understand the basic premise of markets which operate while causing the most pain. While many investors are catching on to the "sell the cycle top and buy the bear cycle bottom idea" he suggests that a confluence of global anomalies may cause the first initial sell off in December, with price dramatically rebounded soon after and sky-rocketing to yet a new ATH in 2022. He suggests that this is the path of most pain, because it MIGHT crash before reaching the targets many have planned for - causing mass hysteria panic selling, while savvy investors who had planned to accumulate throughout the bear accumulation period, may very well be left in the dust as it takes off again - completely annihilating both the bulls and the bears. I guess we shall wait and see. This is why everyone should learn to hedge their bets and learn sensible risk management. Anyways, one can usually find the patterns within the fractal charts to display a vision of various conflicting theories, so here is it. Here to activate your remote viewing powers.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by EsotericTrading
13
BTC September Historic dataLooking at the past doesn't guarantee certainty for the future, but it can give us a good idea of what might happen. Looking into the price action of the last 8 years of Bitcoin's history, we can see that the performance is not that great. The price action in September has been either sideways, or sideways with some downwards momentum. Comparing the historical data to predict the future, it's possible that mean reversion strategies could yield good performance while challenging the trend following strategies. On the other hand, in the past, we don't see high values of market noise which is great for breakout strategies. If we dig deeper into the lower time-frames there are clear trends and smaller breakouts. (This would be another opportunity for lower time frame strategies). September will be an outstanding test for the different strategies because market cycles, so far, have shown different behavior than in prior years. Pre-Sep 2021 Insights: BTC didn't have a significant rally since the dump of May/June, however, there is RSI divergence (slowing momentum), and MACD was still bearish; on the other hand, BTC will face the ATH wall soon. Last year, before September we had a strong move that ended up with a correction and choppy market conditions in September. There are some similarities between pre-September of 2021 and the other years, for example, RSI divergence, strong moves in prior months. It will be interesting to see how it will play out and if the similarities will keep up. Explanation per Year: 2020 In 2020 after the March dump, BTC had a strong rally until August and September was the cooling-off of that move. Also, the RSI continued making lower highs while the price was making higher highs, giving the indication of a trend reversal. 2019 Sept 2019 had a different story but the outcome was kind of similar. Dec2018 to March 2019 we saw the accumulation phase after the bear market and when the price started to move the rally was almost vertical; Vertical moves are emotional moves and normally don't last long. September arrived while prices keep falling to make higher highs and end up with a dump in September. The market structure from 2019 differs from 2020 but the outcome is similar, sideway-move and/or crash 2018 In 2018 we came from the 17 Dec 2017 ATH right at the end of the bear market. Price tried to break the EMA21 week and failed, giving continuation to the bear market. Price once again was choppy after a small rally confirming EMA21 week as resistance (once again). 2018 situation was different from 2020 and 2019 but the September outcome was similar. 2017 In 2017 the similarities are probably more noticeable since we were in the middle of the bull market preparing for the last move. On the other hand, in 2017 there was no death cross and we didn't see the price action going below the EMA21 week, not MA 200. The move from March to August was strong, way stronger than in 2021, but we had the correction here and the RSI divergence was there as well. 2016 In 2016 BTC was right in the middle of the bull market and after a rally, the price came to the mean support areas and consolidate over September after a good V shape recovery.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tuned_Official
BTC By 2017 Standard; True Bull Market is in the Next 90 Days- Instead of using the halving date as an indicator for the start of the cycle. I took the first time BTC starting breaking its previous all-time high. - By this measure, we were at a similar point in 2017 to where we are now . Boring consolidation after a massive collapse of around 40%. - In 2017, after the 200th day the price of BTC rose by almost 1600% in only 95 days -Adjusting the movements proportionally to what happened in 2017, we should be looking at a ~230,000$ BTC in the next three months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by falamah