Short EOD trade on Brent Crude at the $50 psychological levelPlease see annotated chart for details.
Brentcrude
Failed Breakout Attempt on Crude-Low Risk TradeFailed Breakout attempt-with stop and reverse and above 48.90
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (All-Time View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
Possible start to oils rise? (Triangle break into bullish Gart.)There are a number of ways this trade could play out:
1. Triangle and long-term resistance breaks at touch point 7 of the symmetrical triangle. Would place an initial profit target at $34.80 and then at $38, and if this target was reached I would consider holding this position for a prolonged period of time.
2. Triangle breaks at touch point 6 to move into a Gartely formation. Short at the break, buy at $28.50. Profit target for the Gartely would be at the long-term resistance line. For any signicant move above this long-term resistance, see trade 1.
3. Triangle breaks at point 6, Gartely gets stopped out (this won't matter because the stop loss for the Gartely would be equal to the profit taken from the triangle breaking at point 6, so there will be no net loss of money).
4. Something completely different!
I am looking forward to seeing how this plays out, could potentially be a lot of profit to take from these trades.
