BRENT OIL ( UK OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart UK OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today UKOIL analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (UKOIL market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on UKOIL Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
Brentcrude
Brent above @$100 might not be a myth !Brent have two recent bottoms 1.June 2023 ($72) and 2. August 2023 ($82.5) and has rallied more than 33% since July. The rally still looks to be continuing without till 496, $98.5 and $100 very soon. Given the strong momentum buildup and supply cuts from OPEC+ has given the oil a due rally which the cartel was expecting since June 2023.
Technically speaking levels of $126 are also on the charts as the commodity is breaking out of a Declining wedge pattern which was in formation from Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 a strong supply side pressure will be giving the commodity due advantage to rise above $100 to $125.65 as we can see.
BRENT OIL ( UK OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart UK OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today UKOIL analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (UKOIL market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on UKOIL Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
UPDATE: Brent Crude is on the way to $100!Since the last update, Brent has broken above the major Falling Wedge...
And it's been on a quiet but consistent trajectory up.
With the USD strengthening and with oil being an inelastic good where price has little effect on demand, means we can expect the price to continue to the first target.
$100!
We are in it for the medium term.
Brent uptrend exhaustionContext:
Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up
Daily – uptrend
Microstructure:
Poor highs, poor lows
Last day:
value moved down
Special notes:
There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week
Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it.
Conclusion:
A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside.
For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet.
What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads"
Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports.
Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector.
There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels.
The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through.
Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel)
Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive.
So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe.
Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year.
If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ).
This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil.
The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87.
If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now.
The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff.
There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line.
This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend.
I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark.
As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
Brent Crude just gave my first buy signal since March 2022TECHNICALS:
We’re looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude oil.
We can see since March 2022, the price has indeed tanked from $136 down to $71.
During that time, we can see it’s formed a large Descending Triangle pattern.
This is generally a pattern which also forms what looks like a falling triangle.
The selling is stronger than the buying. And this is what brings the price down.
The $71 price however, is the crucial support (floor level) that’s been holding since 2021.
Each time it touches this level, the price tends to bounce back up.
Recently, the Brent Crude price has broken up and out of the Descending Triangle. This tells me the buyers are back and so is demand for the market.
The first target will be half way between the Descending Triangle’s high at $100.
Once we break that psychological $100 mark, I’ll be sure to send you the next prediction for Brent Crude.
FUNDAMENTALS:
It’s been a long and depressing time for the black gold commodity.
We’ve seen the price drop from $135 down to $71.00, over the last two years.
But now, Brent Crude is stealing the limelight.
With the impending oil shortages to the soaring global demand – the trend is finally changing.
In this article, we’ll go through the three main reasons why I expect Brent
Crude to rally back to its $100 mark.
Reason #1: The big shortage of oil
A key driver of why Brent Crude is ready to rally, is due to the recent prediction by the International Energy Administration (IEA).
They have stated there is an imminent oil shortage.
In fact, the IEA has warned the shortage in oil will materialize in the second half of 2023.
We could see demand potentially outpace supply by around 2 million barrels a day.
Also, Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has said it will prolong its reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day into August 2023.
This extension has followed from their sudden decision to reduce an additional million bpd for July.
Then we have Russia and Algeria who will also lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd.
And so, based on this, we’ve seen oil prices rise by over 5.29%.
This scenario leads me to believe oil prices are likely to climb for the following reasons:
1. Supply Disruption
First, with Saudi Arabia deciding to cut production, they are limiting the amount of oil available in the market.
When there is a lower supply, there is a ride in demand. And this puts upward pressure on oil prices.
2. OPEC Influence on other members
We know Saudi Arabia is a leading member of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).
And when they make a decision, this often sways other global oil markets to follow along.
This can result in other OPEC+ members to decide to cut their production.
And this lower supply, and increased demand will help increase the price of oil.
Reason #2: Goldman Sachs makes its prediction
Goldman Sachs has also spoken.
It has lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel, by the end of the year.
And raised its price prediction to $100 for 2024, based on the oil output change.
Brent to stall at trend of lower highs?Brent - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bearish.
Trend line resistance is located at 76.60.
50 1day EMA is at 76.35.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 76.39 (stop at 77.39)
Our profit targets will be 73.89 and 73.39
Resistance: 75.90 / 76.40 / 77.34
Support: 75.20 / 74.80 / 74.40
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry
A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears.
Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to buy dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13)
Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13
Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00
Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
UKOILThis is an update from the last time we took a trade on oil. Our approach was wrong, impatient and too easy, this time we have gone in with refinement and it has paid off.
- Pressure from the demand was very high
- retest of sensitive area
- break down of strength
- impulsive candle
This is to show that every time you refine your strategy you add to the skill so stay working on it and making it better, it is YOURS so only you can put in the work.
Brent: In the Jungle 🌳🌴🎍Wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh
Wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh
Wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh
Wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh, wimoweh
In the jungle, the mighty jungle
The lion sleeps tonight,
In the jungle the quiet jungle
The lion sleeps tonigh
Wee heeheehee…–
… – okay, let’s stop here before we won’t be able to get this song out of our heads. We should rather take a look at Brent, which has advanced deep into the dark green jungle between $77.13 and $42.20 and has left the mark at $75.09 behind. We hope, the course has taken a sharp machete along, as we expect it to penetrate the scrub further – ideally until the 61.80%-retracement at $62.71. There, it should complete wave 2 in green and subsequently turn upwards again.
Brent showing two strong bearish patterns to target $67.71M formation has formed over the Rising Flag.
This confirms not one but 2 bearish patterns in the making.
There is a strong chance of the price coming down. and we have other indicators confirming.
7= 21 - crossing
Price <200
RSI<50
Target $67,71