Brent Crude Oil Futures monthly demand, buy BrentBrent Crude Oil Futures has a monthly demand level located around $5038 that gained control a couple of months ago. The fact that we have had that monthly imbalance in control allowed us to make too decisions. 1) No shorts would are allowed trading against a big timeframe demand imbalance that has gained control. 2) Only longs would be allowed.
Brent Crude Oil has been rallying for a few weeks now creating a new weekly demand level around $53.91 and potentially creating a new one slightly higher around $62.00 a barrel. There is a clear long bias providing buy opportunities on Brent Crude Oil Futures, a lot margin for profit on the way up to monthly supply zone around $77.00 a barrel
We do not take into consideration any fundamental analysis to trade futures, no earnings announcements or volume, we do not need any of that to make a trading decision based on supply and demand imbalances. We just need to know where those imbalances are located and what is the bigger picture trend on the stock.
Still if you pay attention to news, in the beginning of February Oil prices have fallen after disappointing US factory data sparked fresh concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. Brent crude futures dropped 0.2% to $62.6 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% to $54.48 a barrel. Oil prices had been buoyed by a new round of supply cuts from Opec and its allies.
Can we really make sense out of this Brent Crude Oil news? Maybe you can, but do we really need it? No we don't. Price reached a very strong monthly demand level, we are allowed to buy Brent Crude Oil but we are not allowed to sell it.
You can also use various options strategies to take longs at demand imbalances, long calls, spreads or any other strategy that you might have on your trading plan.
Brentcrude
Break above neckline may see 'Oil Rise as high as $74'Trade set up
‘Buy long’ on daily open with caution as current price closes above the 10day EMA with stops below the recent daily close or those with higher risk appetite, a close below the 10day EMA.
Target levels of 64.30 followed by the 50% retracement of the previous major move around $68.30 and looking to add to our position as price make a new higher-high above $63.00.
Why we like it
With recent US government sanctions imposed on Venezuelan state-owned oil firm PDVSA, we saw a strong rise in oil prices which continues the pressure from the bulls looking to send oil higher.
Technically speaking, recent MACD crossover and oversold RSI may be an early indication of a change in trend as price looks to have found support with a potential ‘Head & Shoulder pattern’ also in play. One could argue a break above the neckline could see oil rise as high as $70-$74 with the shorter-term outlook ranging between $64.30 and $68.60.
That said, a close below the 10Day EMA and furthermore, a break below the recent support level could see the end of this short term rally.
Disclaimer.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
USDCAD. Buy now. Trading Criteria:
Regardless which way you want to trade, look for minimum five 4hr. candles in consolidation zones (yellow border boxes), or five daily candles for solid yellow boxes. If you're a pattern trader or pinbar trader, this might be useful here.
Wait for the breakout of the 4hr. consolidation or daily consolidation from red border boxes to take the trade. Red border boxes are the High/Low of a consolidation period inside the consolidation zone. I usually aim for 80% of the weekly ATR (or monthly ATR for yellow solid boxes) taking profit but not always at the next yellow box. I place my stop loss above/below red border box.
*These zones, with the inclusion of price action described above, have remarkable accuracy.
Yellow border box: weekly consolidation zone
Yellow solid box: monthly consolidation zone
Red border box: High/Low breakout box (5 minimum candles)
Grey solid box: monthly grid block
EMA & MACD crossover, a potential early entry for Brent Crude?Trade set up - Enter on a daily close above the 10 day EMA with stops below the previous weekly low of 58.35 and a short-term price target of 70.00 - 71.00, looking to add to the position once broken above the downtrend channel.
Why we like this trade - Technically speaking, price looks to have found some support around the Feb 2017 high after the recent 33% onslaught of crude prices since late September. With a recent MACD crossover and bullish weekly close last week, it may be an early signal for a change in direction. We are looking for a close above the 10day EMA as an entry signal which seems to be holding true using the MACD crossover and oversold RSI for support in our conclusion.We've also seen a strong draw of 10m barrels in the weekly API crude inventory report, which gives us some confidence tonights official DoE report should follow suit.
That said, a break below the recent low could indicate further downside with the recent price support simply a rest for sellers looking to target $45-50 a barrel.
Disclaimer.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
UKOIL Brent Crude Oil Long-Term ForecastSo, here we go again with the brent crude oil forecast:
Scenario 1: Oil prices could reach highs of up to $83 a barrel, which represents a resistance level formed by the descending upper trendline.
Scenario 2: Oil prices could fall even lower to about $30 a barrel, which represents a 100% retracement of the previous wave. That level is also in the support zone formed by the previous lower lower.
My verdict: Price is going up to $80 a barrel
WTI Oil. Little more Downside, then Buy. Trading Criteria:
Regardless which way you want to trade, look for minimum five 4hr. candles in consolidation zones (yellow border boxes), or five daily candles for solid yellow boxes. If you're a pattern trader or pinbar trader, this might be useful here.
Wait for the breakout of the 4hr. consolidation or daily consolidation from red border boxes to take the trade. Red border boxes are the High/Low of a consolidation period. I usually aim for 80% of the weekly ATR (or monthly ATR for yellow solid boxes) taking profit but not always at the next yellow box. I place my stop loss above/below consolidation.
*These zones, with the inclusion of price action described above, have remarkable accuracy.
BRENT CRUDE OIL NOW AT KEY SUPPORTBRENT CRUDE OIL is finally back into the key support level of 62.30. Price is starting to find some support here and we are expecting the market to see some relief here with a push back into the resistance of 70.40. Looking for a change of cycle on the 4hr timeframe before trading the weekly retracement.
OILOil retracement with fib level/structural confluence
***Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice. Information posted here is strictly for entertainment purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any kind of investment. Investments can be very risky and any investor should educate themselves before investing by enlisting the help of a licensed financial professional. Past results are not indicative of future results in any construable way.***
OIL PULLING BACK TO KEY RESISTANCEOIL Looks to be pulling back to key resistance of 70.45 with fibonacci confluence. If the market forms a double top pattern here on the 4hr chart we will look for further downside to continue into the key support of 62.40. We also have confluence of our moving averages for further downside.
BRENT OIL POTENTIAL TO REVERSEHello friends! If you agree with this idea, please give me a like and a follow. It will be greatly appreciated and will allow me to continue posting quality content.
My idea for Brent Crude is a LONG position. This is based on technical analysis, however the fundamentals are a little bit unclear for the time being.
The Brent price per barrel has bounced off the support line drawn at the $71.00 levels. This has acted as a major support/resistance 4 times in the past year! Could this be a reversal into bullish sentiment?
Due to minor uncertainty in the fundamentals, I will be placing a Stop Loss just under this support level to protect myself from risk.
Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading in the various asset classes. You can manage your losses by using smart risk management. Identify your Entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss levels before you enter a trade.
Brent Oil bounce off supportHello friends! If you agree with this idea, please give me a like and a follow so that I can continue posting quality content!
The Brent Oil price per barrel has bounced off the support line at $71.20. This has been a particularly strong line of influence this year - with the price touching it 4 times.
The red line is my Stop Loss. Good luck!
Use risk management to minimise your losses. Losses can exceed initial deposits.
$71 last hope for Brent crude oil bulls as sanctions kick inThe introduction of US sanctions on Iran has been a "sell the fact" event. Brent crude has broken a long term rising trendline = bearish
Scenario A) price bounces to 74.30-75.10, which holds as resistance for another leg lower towards 71
Scenario B) price just drops from current levels to 71
BRENT/USD 1H Chart: Short-term decline expectedThe BRENT.CMD/USD pair has been depreciating in an ascending channel since the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel near 86.00.
The commodity price opens below the 55– and 100-hour SMAs during Wednesday's session. From a theoretical point of view, it is expected that the pair aims for the lower line of the senior channel located in the 73.50/74.00 range.
If the senior channel holds, the price could reverse north and target the resistance level formed by a combination of the monthly S1 and the 200-hour SMA circa 77.80.
BRENT CRUDE TO $73.00We have been watching Brent Crude Oil for a while now as we expected a deeper retracement to form. We managed to catch a great trade near the highs after the change in 4hr trend.
Technically the market continues to produce lower lows and lower highs and is currently consolidating after bouncing from the minor support at $75.00.
Now we are starting to see the market form a descending triangle pattern which typically breaks to the downside, combining this with minor structure resistance and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, this could
be a great area to look for the short trade into the key support. We will be looking for the break out of the supporting trendline before looking for the short trade.
Brent crude: Potential three drive completion to $92-$96I had previously described myself as an oil bull and Mr. Market is giving me an opportunity to elaborate. So brent crude has been trading a huge channel since peaking in 2008 with the last major trough in 2016. Long story short, brent crude is on track to test the upper boundary of the trading channel at c.$96. Try to follow the sequence:-
AB leg: Feb to May'18
BC leg : May to Aug'18
CD: troughed in Aug, confirmed in Sep and CD leg is advancing in a three drive formation.
Oil bulls have to thank Trump for putting Iran out of action and potentially the Saudis too. Guess what? The Saudis holds the key to incremental supply addition to offset the drop caused by the Iranian sanctions and the oil majors can't ramp up fast enough anywhere else as we head into the Northern hemisphere winter... Go oil!
I apologize for using an Elliot impulse wave annotation but I think it is clearer than the standard TradingView three drive annotation.
BRENT Weekly Forex Forecast 9th September to 22nd September Midterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 82.00, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 70.30 breaks.
If the resistance at 82.00 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 70.35 on 2018-01-15 and the peak at 80.5 on 2018-05-22, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
The RSI bounced from the downtrend #1 and it prevented price from more gains.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 59.