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Brazil

EWZ Brazil, a commodities proxy is now in Wave 3 of IIIWith the current fear of recession & rising inflation in the US, a lot of funds will be flowing outside into emerging markets, China & also Brazil which is rich in commodities especially now that the dollar seems to be peaking out as foreign markets slowly becomes more attractive to invest in. EWZ may retrace down first to fill the gap at 33.65 green line. A bounce from here will enable a near 20% rally to the 0.618 red zone at 40 to 42.43. 42.43 will be a strong pivot point since it is the intersection of the 0.50 red dotted FIB level of my slanted FIB CHANNEL with 1.272 FIB of the recent wave 2. EWZ is currently in the wave 3 of 3 of a larger wave III. Not trading advice
AMEX:EWZLong
by xtremerider8
EWZ Long Term PlayOne of my followers asked me for a long term play, here's one. EWZ (Brazil) is still at the same level as 2008. It's in a pennant and looks like it will break upward. Why? What does 2022 and 2007 have in common? High oil and commodity prices. Materials and Energy is 40% of EWZ plus the currency is rallying because of oil. I suppose you can play DBC (commodity index fund) instead if you prefer or both. DBC is now finally back to 2007 levels. Now that I think about it, it probably makes sense to park my money in DBC as an inflation hedge.
AMEX:EWZ
by hungry_hippo
The economics of the FIFA World CupIn a few months from now, billions of people will be glued to their TVs for the 2022 FIFA World Cup that is set to take place in Qatar. Every four years, soccer’s global governing body gathers teams from over 30 countries for the world’s biggest sporting event that brings in billions of dollars in revenues and other economic benefits (jobs and tourism) for host nations and for FIFA itself. Economic benefits for host countries For every World Cup, countries put in their bids to host the event as it is widely seen as beneficial for tourism in the long run. Preparing for the event boosts infrastructure and employment in the run up to the World Cup and attracts tourists during and after the event. Countries spend heavily in building stadiums as FIFA has had strict stadium requirements since at least 2001. Stadiums for hosting the opening ceremony should have a capacity of at least 80,000 people, while venues slated for quarter-finals should be able to seat 60,000 attendees. While hosting the World Cup has dubious positive long-term effects on host nations’ tourism and retailing, the impact on employment is undoubtedly transitory as the bulk of job creation is during the construction of stadiums and related infrastructure. Once construction is finished and the World Cup caps off, situations will normalize at host countries and economies will have to wait a couple of years to fully recover the size of their investments in hosting the event. South Africa, which hosted the 2010 World Cup, spent about £3 billion ($4 billion) on venues and infrastructure costs, but only raked in £323 million in revenue due to lower-than-expected tourist arrivals. South Africa and Brazil, which spent about $15 billion on the 2002 World Cup, are among the host nations that were unable to benefit from their investments. The South Africa World Cup is regarded by many as a disaster as it triggered protests by workers and by activists that were against the government’s overspending on the project. Fast forward to 2022, the Qatar World Cup is being met with backlash over how the Gulf state treats its migrant workers. Qatar, albeit small, is one of the world’s richest countries based on its GDP per capita. The oil-exporting country has spent billions on hosting the World Cup that is set to be the first in the Arab world and the second to be entirely set in Asia after the 2002 event in South Korea and Japan. However, Qatar is facing protests following reports that thousands of migrant workers have died since the country started constructing infrastructures for the event about a decade ago. The 2022 World Cup has also been marred with corruption scandals. Qatar and Russia have been accused by the US Department of Justice two years ago of bribing FIFA officials to award hosting rights to their countries for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Impact on the currency of the World Cup champions For champions, economic benefits from winning the World Cup are also short-lived. In a report in 2014, Goldman Sachs said the victor outperforms the global market by 3.5% only in the first month after winning. The momentum fades after three months, the bank’s economists said, stressing that the pattern of outperformance is "fairly consistent over time.” In assessing the World Cup winners between 2002 and 2018, only France registered a slowdown in GDP growth. After winning the 2002 World Cup, Brazil’s GDP jumped 3.1%, faster than the 1.4% expansion in 2001. Italy and Germany also recorded an acceleration in their GDP after their wins in 2006 and 2014, respectively, while Spain’s economy inched up 0.2% in 2010 after contracting 3.8% the previous year. In terms of the victors’ currencies, the Euro — the currency of most European countries —fared better than the US dollar in 2010 when Spain won the World Cup, but lagged against the USD in 2006, 2014 and 2018 when Italy, Germany and France emerged as champions of the World Cup. The favorite to win the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup is Brazil and could lead to a strengthening in the Brazilian real, which has already had an impressive year. The USD started 2022 at approximately 5.6 reals per US dollar and has since strengthened by 20% to 4.7 reals per US dollar. France (the euro) and England (the pound) are considered the next two favorites with football fans. Who is the real winner in World Cup events? If both host nations and champions only receive little to no economic benefits from the World Cup, the clear winner of the international sporting event is undoubtedly the organizer, FIFA, itself. FIFA generates income from the sale of TV, marketing, and licensing rights for football events like the World Cup, while the costs for World Cup events always falls on the host countries. FIFA is expected to rake in $7 billion in revenue from the 2022 World Cup, up from $5.36 billion from the 2018 World Cup and $4.8 billion from the 2014 event.
by BlackBull_Markets
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
AMEX:EEMLong
by noam_chom
2
StoneCo (4H) - short term Bullcase // could it fill the GAP ?Hello traders (and some investors ?), As you could notice, most of high-growth and tech stocks are in bear market for last several months. While huge part of them formed abc corrective waves down. StoneCo formed impulsive wave (of 5 subwaves) DOWN =that´s not good sign because impulsive waves are never alone. So my thesis how to play this stock is this.: - You can see there is a GAP around 27-29usd which is around 0.238 retracement. (possible 140% gains). Fundamentals: -- there is huge risk, as it is Emerging market in Brazil. - A lot of competitors(like NU bank) with much bigger backing (Berkshoire invested in both, also Softbank, ...) ++ StoneCo grow very fast in terms of AMU and revenue. +/- management hired some advisors which could help to restruturalize business (and also increase expenses :( )... +/- Stone aquired some businesses which was very good step, but I really dont understand why they bought stake in Banco inter (AT THE TOP !!) = seriously guys, they should consider hiring at least average trader / Technical analyst for this kind of aquisitions / investments... +/- stock price correlates highly with other Groth/tech stocks (check my Fintech/ecommerce analysis ... seems like Stoneco correlates more with Chines market than SaP). So fundamentally its 50/50 and depending on many variables = long term it could be nice investment if you are willing going to the moon or to zero.... Right now I´m not willing take so big risk to hold it forever, so my target is around 28 usd. if we form wave C of correction UP, I will sell everything and watch from side. Take care, strade safe and enjoy the ride. ;)
NASDAQ:STNELong
by Longevity_Contrarian
BUY EZTC3 aiming pre-COVID levelsVery strong fundamentals. Home builder focused on resilient demand: premium real estate EV/EBTIDA <10, P/B <1, PE <9. Negative net debt (>R$1 billion net cash)!!! Excellent track record operating in unstable economy with ultra conservative cash/ leverage management. In spite of conservative approach to business, the company has a very solid growth history since the IPO in 2007. Technicals: correction of 2016-2020 bull run seems to be over (or nearly so). Diverging MACD, RSI and OBV on touch of 2016-2020 trendline. Very attractive risk reward ratio on trade.
BMFBOVESPA:EZTC3Long
by BrunoBoni
$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
NYSE:PAGSLong
by Fox_Technicals
Altamira Gold (ALTA) Unlocking ApiacasThis has been a superb ride since 2019. In terms of the review, let's consider the following parts: Altamira Gold Copper ↳ On the Altamira side... Apiacas is the rainmaker, for context, after five years of waiting they were awarded this massive land package in the largest producer area in the belt. According to very good sources they have at least 1m/oz cooking here. Induced polarisation is already underway (this is where they pump a current through the rock and it comes back quicker if there are sulphates etc). For those who read the latest press release you will have seen very interesting readings there and positive signs, and with drilling starting this month drilling into 100-150m depth and they will look at gaging how far this goes down and start the next chapter. We are +650% from the lows with both targets above cleared. A home-run for 2020 was the expectation, and a home-run was what was delivered from the Altamira Team. Very well done to those who " swung the bat " and are still holding from 4c/5c !!! It ought to be known by everyone that is following the flows here that we have a final slingshot move cooking towards $2 in play over the coming Quarters. Highly recommend tracking 25c which is going to be STRONG support over the Summer, we look set for a quick test before a slingshot towards our final targets. For those asking about Gold (which I will come onto next) and if prices drop there, cost of production for these guys is around circa $500/oz, so it's irrelevant for the most part. ↳ On the Gold side... We were tracking the highs in 2020 for Gold coming miles ahead of inflation, which is important, because the position only appears to be a temporary one, whereas in reality it can be opened up at any point via risk and further contractions in globalisation. This is true for almost 80% of private assets as we are witnessing a decisive move of capital from Public to Private markets. All the cases of CPI overshoots just show that the function of Gold is not simply consisting of inflationary expectations, rather respective to confidence in the Public Sector. I would recommend looking to the work of Martin Armstrong - for those who have insomnia, a few pages of his work around inflation before bed time is the perfect cure. After the test of $1,680 we successfully completed the 4th wave targets, before attempting a quick test of the highs in Wave 5, which was more skilfully rejected by sellers on the CPI overshoots. A very wide range is now in play which will be enough to take out the amateurs (and in some cases, masters too!!). For those wondering whether to start withdrawing troops, I will be updating a detailed Gold chart separately this week, as mentioned earlier, is really irrelevant from an Altamira perspective. ↳ On the Copper side... Sure ok @ridethepig but why is Copper here and what does that have to do with anything? Santa Helena is the third leg to the stool, this is where they have a lot of copper and other minerals. They have just put a lot of Subject Matter Experts (SME's) out there to put together the exploration program there to target the high grade gold veins, and secondly the copper source. This is also at Apiacas, I think there is probably a lot of Copper there too, will keep an ear to the ground there and keep this one updated. The financing they have achieved is going to allow them to eventually spin off Apiacas and etc into different vehicles but not till we finish the moves in Copper. For those tracking the Copper chart, it is pulling back from the highs as widely expected. We are going to mark the Wave (4) lows somewhere around $3.30 in Q3 right on time for Santa Helena in Q4 for a move into $5. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming!
TSXV:ALTALong
by ridethepig
5